Monitoring of Natural Resources in the HKH regionsuparco.gov.pk/downloadables/11-Birendra_Monitoring...
Transcript of Monitoring of Natural Resources in the HKH regionsuparco.gov.pk/downloadables/11-Birendra_Monitoring...
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
Kathmandu, Nepal
Monitoring of Natural Resources
in the HKH region
Birendra Bajracharya
Special Session: Mountains Under Review
Experience Exchange on Remote Sensing-based
Monitoring of Natural Resources in Mountain Regions
The Hindu Kush Himalayas
ICIMOD - an intergovernmental and independent organisation
comprising of eight member states - Afghanistan,
Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar,
Nepal, and Pakistan
Mission
To enable sustainable and resilient mountain development
for improved and equitable livelihoods through knowledge
and regional cooperation.
• Water tower of Asia – 10 large river systems
• ~4000 sq km of snow and ice cover - the “Third Pole”
• Lifeline for more than 1.3 billion population
The Hindu Kush Himalayas
• Rich biological and cultural diversity
• ~ 1000 living languages; 4 global biodiversity hotspots;
60 eco-regions; 13 UNESCO heritage sites
Important biodiversity sites in the HKH Region
The Hindu Kush Himalayas
• Disaster hotspot
• Increased frequency of floods, landslides, earthquakes
The Hindu Kush Himalayas
Sustainable Development Challenges
• Rapid melting of glacier and loss of snow cover
• Increased frequency and magnitude of natural disasters
• Changes in vegetation cover/ forest resources
• Species migration and biodiversity loss
• Transboundary air pollution and black carbon
• Population dynamics and migration
• Many other socio-ecological pressures…
Cryosphere &
Water
Agriculture &
Food
Security
Air &
Atmosphere
Disaster &
Natural
Hazards
Ecosystem &
Biodiversity
Climate Change
Adaptation and
Mountain
Development
Addressing the Challenges
Integrated Data
Management
Spatial analysis
and modeling
Knowledge
products,
visualization and
dissemination
Capacity
building and
networking
ICIMOD-
Thematic Areas and Regional Programs
Livelihoods Ecosystem Services Water & Hazards Geospatial Solutions
Transboundary
Landscapes
River Basins
Adaptation to
Change
Cryosphere &
Atmosphere
Regional
Information
Systems
University
Consortium
Reg
ion
al
Pro
gra
ms
INF
OR
MA
TIO
N S
YS
TE
M F
RA
ME
WO
RK
In-situ / Field
Data
EO
Data
GIS
Data
Socio-
Economic
data
Data and
Information
Integration
Framework
Qualitative
Modeling
Quantitative
Modeling
Tools and
Methods
Spatial
Analysis
Spatial Analytical
Framework and
Modeling
Value added
products
Information
Systems
Knowledge Hub
Platform
Data , Metadata
and Map Services
Information and
Knowledge
products
Decision
Applications
Information Access
and Use
Capacity Building
and Training
Data sharing
Policy
Institutional
Strengthening
and
networking
Regional
databases
Scientific
tools,
methods and
models
Information
Systems and
Services
Regional
Capacity and
Network
Mainstreaming Earth Observation and Geospatial Technologies
Adaptation to change River basins TransectsCryopshere &
Atmosphere
Natural Resources Dynamics
- Mountain Perspective
Social – Climate Regulation Systems(Human-Livestock)
ForestsAgricultureGrasslandsSettlements
Natural Resources Dynamics
Water Security
Climate – SocialRegulation Systems(Livestock-Human)
Snow, WaterGlaciers
GrasslandsBarren lands
Food SecurityEnvironment
Security
Cryosphere Monitoring
• Snow cover monitoring• Weekly snow cover analysis
• Glacier monitoring• Baseline, Decadal changes
• Glacial lake monitoring • Potentially dangerous lakes
Snow Cover Monitoring
Glaciers Mapping and Inventory
• Second generation inventory of
glaciers and glacial lakes in the HKH
• Semi-automatic mapping techniques
• Standardized glacier database
(GLIMS, NSIDC)
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
8500
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150
Ele
va
tio
n (m
as
l)
Area (sq. Km)
Koshi
Gandaki
Karnali
Mahakali
Decadal Changes in Glaciers
LCLUC and Carbon
Assessment and Monitoring
• Land cover change monitoring
• Canopy level change monitoring
• Biomass baseline and change
• Rangeland monitoring
• Fire monitoring
Augment/establish national and local
systems
Land Cover Change Databases
Forest carbon fluxes estimation
• Land cover change database 1990-2000-2010
• Landsat TM data
• FAO/LCCS System
• Image segmentation technique
• Multi source /tier accuracy assessment
• Web enabled delivery system
• Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan and Bangladesh completed; India and China data negotiated
• Forest Carbon flux – Nepal in progress
Nepal Land Cover, 2010
Decadal Land Cover Change
Forest Change
Proneness Modeling
• Multi parameter based model developed at 20x20 km
resolution
• Framework could be used with fine resolution data
• Most vulnerable and stable area delineation at high
resolution useful for monitoring and conservation
strategies (REDD, Biodiversity)
Multi Scale Biomass Modeling for
REDD MRV Framework
• REDD Project areas of ICIMOD
• Spatial biomass models tested, under
calibration :
• Type specific Seasonal multispectral
reflectance model (Landsat TM)
• Stand level canopy morphology model
(GeoEye)
• Species level canopy projected area
model (GeoEye)
• MRV Spatial framework being worked out
R2=0.7674
Landsat TM based Spatial
Biomass map (Decision tree model)
Parameter Variable Importance
Pragati , Janapragati and NibuwaterCommunity Forest
Canopy Level Change Monitoring
Tree Crown Size Analysis
2002
Tree Crown Size 2002
<50
50-100
100-150
150-200
200-250
>250
2009
Tree Crown Size 2009
<50
50-100
100-150
150-200
200-250
250-300
300-350
>350
Species Level Biomass Estimation
using Crown Projected Area (CPA)
R² = 0.653
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Calc
ula
ted
carb
on
Crown Projection Area
Non-linear relationship between CPA and Carbon of Other species
• Field level CPA – dbh relationship developed
• CPA delineated using HRS data
• dbh estimated using RS based CPA
• Sal and Non Sal Species Classification
• Biomass estimation using allometric equations
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
90
110
130
150
170
190
125-500 500-1000 1000-1500 1500-2000 2000-2500 2500-3000 3000-3500 3500-4000 4000-4500 >4500LOS
SOS
LINT
Rangeland Monitoring
- Upper Indus Basin
Monotonic trend of greenness in
rangelands (grasses/shrubs)
based on last 11 years
Indus basin decadal level patterns
of rangeland growth
Rangeland Monitoring
- Upper Indus Basin
11 y
ears
an
nu
al
ph
en
om
etr
ics
Timesat parameter
setup for
Savitzky-Golay
filter
11 years of 16-day
MODIS NDVI
11 years monthly
precipitation/
temperature
Pastoral Practices
Livestock Systems
Smoothed NDVI
curves
Start of season
Length of
Season
Season Max.
NDVI
Season Integ.
NDVI
Decision rules for
rangelands
identification
Decision rules for
ranking
rangelands
productivity
Rangelands
Productivity map
NDVI regression
on time
Intra-annual
vegetation trend
Relation b/w NDVI
and precipitation
Monotonic trend
map
Rangelands
productivity
calendarRangelands
calendar map
Integrated
Planning Support
Grazing Management Inputs, Upper Indus Basin
Forest Fire Monitoring - Nepal
Density of active fire incidents
(2000-2012)
Distribution of Fire Incidents in Nepal
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Eastern 76 34 88 231 227 475 82 127 490 391 150 250
Central 228 87 246 777 499 610 392 501 1060 773 573 658
Western 183 35 219 378 349 391 211 331 728 486 286 384
Mid-Western 376 133 944 744 810 244 245 932 1324 777 623 1200
Far-Western 184 59 451 401 475 203 215 751 612 417 224 653
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
No
. o
f fi
res
Distribution of Active Fire Incidents in Nepal
Fire Season in Nepal
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
40 42 44 46 48 50 52 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
No
. o
f fi
res
Week
Weekly Fire Count Distribution of Nepal
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Max
Median
Crop Growth Monitoring
and Production Assessment
• Rice and Wheat crops - Terai Region, Nepal
• Preparation of fortnightly reference VI (250 m)
data using decadal historical database
• Spatial and temporal VI anomalies detection and
products
• Peak season VI based production modeling
• Integration with climate, ET and soil moisture
• Integrate crop practices, socio-economic data
to delineate Coherent Cropping Zones
Daily Products
• Fire
• Aerosol/Air quality
• Cloud
• Radiation
• Basin level run off
Annual Products
• LULC Change
• Vegetation Continuous
Fields
• Spatial Biomass
• Burnt area, emissions
Fortnightly/Seasonal
• Greenness Anomalies
• Rangeland Seasonality
• Snow cover
• Evapo-transpiration
• Basin level run off
Five Yearly Products
• LULC change hotspots
• Fire recurrence
• Snow Persistence
• Habitat Fragmentation
• Cropping trends
Monitoring - Potential Products
for Geospatial Tools
• Integrated approaches, tools and methodologies
• Long term monitoring initiatives – Transboundary Landscapes
(Kailash, Brahmaputra-Salween, Kangchenjunga, Karakoram-Pamir);
River basin programs – (Koshi, Indus basin)
Conclusion
• Better opportunities from Earth Observation technology
• Growing partnerships with national, regional and
international agencies
• Multilateral Framework of Cooperation
• Information and knowledge exchange
Conclusion
Thank you