Monitoring food security in countries with con˜ict situations · four pillars of food insecurity:...

Foreword

Monitoring food security in countries with con�ict situationsA joint FAO/WFP update for the United Nations Security Council (July 2016)

José Graziano da Silva Ertharin CousinFAO Director-General WFP Executive Director

As widely known, con�ict is a leading cause of hunger – each famine in the modern era has been characterized by con�ict. Hunger can also contribute to violence, and may act as a channel through which wider socio-economic and political grievances are expressed.

Here is an overview of some key numbers: people in con�ict-a�ected states are up to three times more likely to be undernourished than those who are living in more stable developing countries1. The most recent projections suggest that approximately half of the global poor now live in states characterized by con�ict and violence. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) have a strong interest, and a potentially important role to play, in supporting transitions towards peace.

Con�ict undermines food security in multiple ways: destroying crops, livestock and agricultural infrastructure, disrupting markets, causing displacement, creating fear and uncertainty over ful�lling future needs, damaging human capital, and contributing to the spread of disease, amongst others. Con�ict also creates access problems for governments and humanitarian organizations, which often struggle to reach those in need.

When populations feel that their governments are not adequately addressing hunger needs, or are addressing them in inequitable manners, resentment and tension may arise. Similarly, rising food prices may leave people without the ability to meet the needs of their households and may contribute to protests, riots and instability. Over one-third of countries classi�ed as “fragile” in 2015, had experienced recent con�icts, re�ecting dynamic interrelationships among poverty (including hunger), governance and con�ict.

The 2030 Agenda recognizes peace as a vital threshold condition for development, as well as a development outcome in its own right, and recognizes that con�ict impacts negatively on, and can inhibit, sustainable development. Addressing hunger can be a meaningful contribution to peacebuilding2. To this end, food security analyses aim at identifying marginalized individuals and communities to ensure the equitable and inclusive provision of assistance to the ones most in need.

This report’s purpose is to shed light on the impact of con�icts on food security and nutrition, as well as to draw greater attention to the millions of people that are in urgent need of assistance, thus building on the e�orts to both help prevent con�ict, and sustain peace.

Rationale and methodology

This report aims to provide an overview on the level of needs in con�ict-a�ected countries and to allow regular monitoring of the food security situation in the countries currently being monitored by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The analysis takes into consideration the complexity of con�icts and illustrates its impact on the four pillars of food insecurity: availability, access and utilization of food, together with stability over time.

The negative impact of con�ict on food security, nutrition and agriculture is an uncontested and globally recognized relationship. With this in mind, FAO and WFP will produce regular food security reports on countries of concern to the UNSC. In the context of increasing humanitarian crises, this joint FAO-WFP collaboration on shared analyses is part of a global e�ort alongside Member States, to provide decision makers, and the public at large, with transparent and harmonized information to increase accountability by all. This is coherent with Core Responsibility 1 from the United Nations Secretary-General’s report to the World Humanitarian Summit, in order to assist the UNSC in its e�orts to embrace risk analysis earlier and bring its leverage to bear to defuse tensions, urge restraints and open up space for dialogue.

Produced by FAO and WFP, the report is based on existing data and analysis, including baseline and Emergency Food Security Assessments from WFP3 and FAO Early Warning reports4. In countries where the Integrated Food Security Phase Classi�cation (IPC) and the Cadre Harmonisé (CH) have been adopted by the government and food security stakeholders as the national protocol for classifying the severity and magnitude of acute food insecurity, the latest IPC/CH analyses results were used5.

The IPC is a set of standardized tools that aims at providing a “common currency” for classifying the severity and magnitude of food insecurity. This evidence-based approach uses international standards which allow comparability of situations across countries and over time. It is based on consensus-building processes to provide decision-makers with a rigorous analysis of food insecurity along with objectives for response in both emergency and development contexts. This report speci�cally looks at the more severe Phase of the IPC — Phase 3 “Crisis” and Phase 4 “Emergency”— to highlight the number of people requiring urgent assistance.

In West African countries, the CH tool is used, which is a variation of the IPC tool that has been customized to the context of the region. For some countries, the latest Humanitarian Needs Overview is also used in order to provide an updated and reliable �gure concerning the number of people in need.

For some countries the latest Humanitarian Needs Overview were used in order to provide a reliable �gure concerning the number of people in need.

The report covers 17 countries in four regions:

• Latin America: Haiti and Colombia.

• Africa: Burundi, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Guinea Bissau, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Mali, Somalia, South Sudan and Sudan.

• Middle East: Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen.

• Asia: Afghanistan.

One brief on the regional Lake Chad basin crisis a�ecting Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon is also included. Countries or territories, under UNSC monitoring, where recent or no data was available have not been covered (e.g. Western Sahara, Libya, Ukraine, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Bosnia Herzegovina and Eritrea). For some countries the lack of access to conduct food security assessments is a serious concern for humanitarian agencies. Despite a widespread knowledge of the high prevalence of hunger, up-to-date data is not available to provide substantive support to operational planning.

Each country brief provides an overview of people su�ering from acute food insecurity, a brief description of the impact of con�ict on food security and a summary of main drivers of food insecurity in the country. As a reference point, the number of people classi�ed in IPC/CH phase 36 and above were considered or people a�ected by moderate and severe food insecurity (WFP CARI SCALE)7, when IPC/CH analyses were not available. The reference to the IPC Phase is indicative of the food insecurity severity8.

*For both nutrition and mortality area outcomes, household food consumption deficits must be an explanatory factor in order for that evidence to be used in support of a Phase classification. For example, elevated malnutrition due to disease outbreak or lack of health access—if it is determined to not be related to food consumption deficits—should not be used as evidence for an IPC classification. Similarly, excess mortality rates due to, murder or conflict –if they are not related to food consumption deficits--should not be used as evidence for a Phase classification. For Acute Malnutrition, the IPC thresholds are based on percentage of children under five years that are below two standard deviations of weight for height or presence of oedema. BMI is an acronym for Body Mass Index. CDR is Crude Death Rate. U5DR is Under 5 Death Rate.

Phase 1Minimal

Urgent Action Required to:

Phase 2Stressed

Phase 3Crisis

Phase 4Emergency

Phase 5Famine

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More than four infive households(HHs) are able tomeet essenalfood and nonfoodneedswithout engagingin atypical,unsustainablestrategies toaccess food andincome, includingany reliance onhumanitarianassistance

More than 80% ofhouseholds in the area are able to meet basic food needs without engaging in atypicalstrategies to accessfood and income,and livelihoods are sustainable

Based on the IPCHousehold GroupReference Table, at least 20% of the householdsin the area are in Phase 2 or worse

Based on the IPCHousehold GroupReference Table, at least 20% of the households inthe area are in Phase 3 or worse

Based on the IPCHousehold GroupReference Table, at least 20% of the households inthe area are in Phase 4 or worse

Based on the IPCHousehold GroupReference Table, at least 20% of the households inthe area are in Phase 5

Acon required toBuild Resilience and

for Disaster RiskReducon

Acon requiredfor Disaster RiskReducon and to

Protect Livelihoods

Protect livelihoods,reduce food

consumpon gaps,and reduce acute

malnutrion

Save lives andlivelihoods

Acute Malnutri�on:<5%

BMI <18.5 Prevalence:<10%

CDR: <0.5/10,000/day

U5DR: ≤1/10,000/day

CDR: <0.5/10,000/day

U5DR: ≤1/10,000/day

CDR: 0.5–1/10,000/day

U5DR: 1–2/10,000/day

CDR: 1–2/10,000/day OR>2x reference

U5DR: 2–4/10,000/day

CDR: >2/10,000/day

U5DR: >4/10,000/day

Acute Malnutri�on:5–10%,

BMI <18.5 Prevalence:10–20%

Acute Malnutri�on:10–15% OR >

usual and increasing

BMI <18.5 Prevalence:20–40%, 1.5 x greater

than reference

Acute Malnutri�on:15–30%; OR > usual and

increasing

BMI <18.5 Prevalence:>40%

Acute Malnutri�on: >30%

BMI <18.5 Prevalence: far > 40%

Prevent widespreadmortality and total

collapse of livelihoods

Even with anyhumanitarianassistance at leastone in five HHs inthe area have thefollowing or worse:

Minimallyadequate foodconsumponbut are unableto afford someessenal nonfood expenditureswithout engagingin irreversiblecoping strategies.

Even with anyhumanitarianassistance at leastone in five HHs inthe area have thefollowing or worse:Food consumpongaps with high orabove usual acutemalnutrionORAre marginally ableto meet minimumfood needs only withaccelerated depleonof livelihood assetsthat will lead to foodconsumpon gaps.

Even with anyhumanitarianassistance at leastone in five HHs inthe area have thefollowing or worse:

Large foodconsumpon gapsresulng in very highacute malnutrionand excess mortalityORExtreme loss oflivelihood assets thatwill lead to foodconsumpon gaps inthe short term.

Even with anyhumanitarianassistance at leastone in five HHs inthe area have anextreme lack offood and otherbasic needs wherestarvaon, death,and destuon areevident.

(Evidence for allthree criteria offood consumpon,wasng, and CDR isrequired to classifyFamine.)

IPC Acute food insecurity reference table for area classificationPurpose: To guide short-term strategic objectives linked to medium- and long-term objectives that address underlying causes and chronic food insecurity.

Usage: Classification is based on convergence of evidence of current or projected most likely conditions, including effects of humanitarian assistance.

As illustrated by the analysis in Table 1, the situation di�ers from country to country. However, it is unsurprising that countries with ongoing con�icts present the highest number of food insecure with a rapidly deteriorating situation. For the current updates, the degrading food security situation is a concern in Syria, Yemen, South Sudan, Burundi and the Lake Chad Basin region. South Sudan and Syria are of particular concern as 2016 marks a deteriorating trend due to the protracted nature of the con�ict.

Syria

Food insecurity in Syria has sharply deteriorated since the beginning of the con�ict. Some 8.7 million people (6.3 million in 2015) are now in need of some form of food assistance, of which 6.3 million people (32.8 percent) do not have adequate access to food. Some 4.5 million people are in hard-to-reach areas, including more than 400 000 people in besieged areas who do not have access to the life-saving aid that they urgently need. Internally displaced persons and returnees without sustainable livelihood strategies are among the most food insecure groups. The situation is worst in Aleppo, rural Damascus, Al-Hassakeh, Hama and Dara governorates where more than 40 percent of people are food insecure. Under siege, the entire Deir ez-Zor city is food insecure and food assistance has become the main source of food for the majority of households. The main causes of the severe situation are the compounding impacts of the escalated con�ict and insecurity. This has resulted in decreased agricultural and food production, dwindling employment and income opportunities, high in�ation and exchange rate �uctuations, which have adversely a�ected the purchasing power of poor households and thereby limited their �nancial access to food.

Yemen

Yemen faces a protracted food security crisis of enormous scale. The severity and spread of the crisis is accelerating as a result of the compounding and cumulative impacts of con�ict, economic crisis and climatic shocks. More than half of the population is food insecure — a 33 percent increase since late 2014, and10 percent increase since June 2015. The level of food insecurity is alarming, in particular in those governorates under active con�ict, and is expected to deteriorate further in the coming weeks and months. Nine out of Yemen’s 20 governorates are now classi�ed in “Emergency” (IPC Phase 4). Taiz governorate, where the food insecurity and nutrition situation is constantly deteriorating is a major concern. The main causes of the severe situation are the compounding e�ects of the escalated con�ict and insecurity, which have resulted in dwindling employment opportunities and income combined with high in�ation and exchange rate �uctuations. In addition to man-made events, the situation is also aggravated by natural disasters i.e. desert locust, cyclones and �oods.

South Sudan

Since the outbreak of con�ict in December 2013, the food security situation in South Sudan has signi�cantly deteriorated. The severity and spread of the crisis is accelerating as a result of the compounding and cumulative impacts of con�ict, economic crisis and climatic shocks. The worst a�ected population groups include displaced, returning households and the low-income earners who are characterized by minimal assets and low purchasing power to satisfy their food needs. Between May and July 2016, the overall food security situation has deteriorated in many parts of the country with an estimated 4.8 million people in

Main �ndings

Country People in need of food, nutrition or livelihoods assistance (millions of people)

Percentage of total population Previous estimates Nov. 20159 (millions of people)

Afghanistan 2.5 8% 2.5

Burundi 2.3 23% 0.460

Central African Republic 1.8 50% 1.5

Colombia 5.8 12%

Democratic Republic of Congo 4.5 9% 4.45

Guinea Bissau 0.025 0.60% 0.003

Haiti 2.1 19% 1

Iraq 2.4 7% 2.4

Ivory Coast 0.277 1% 0.21

Lebanon (Syrian Refugees) 1.1 89%10 0.259

Liberia 0.025 1% 0.017

Mali 0.423 2% 0.119

Somalia 0.95 8% 0.855

South Sudan 4.8 40% 2.835

Sudan 4.4 12% 4

Syria 8.7 37%11 6.3

Yemen 14 51% 7.6

Table 1: Current and previous estimates of people in IPC/CH Phase 3 or above

Endnotes1 FAO and WFP. 2010. State of Food Insecurity in the World: Addressing Food Insecurity in Protracted Crises. Rome. The �gures compare countries in protracted crises with other developing countries, excluding China and India. 2 WFP’s Role in Peacebuilding in Transition Settings – October 2013. 3 www.vam.wfp.org 4 www.fao.org/giews/english/index.htm 5 www.ipcinfo.org

6 http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-detail-forms/ipcinfo-resource-detail0/en/c/414478/. 7 http://www.wfp.org/content/consolidated-approach-reporting-indicators-food-security-cari-guidelines.

8 IPC Phases description can be found here: http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-detail-forms/ipcinfo-resource-detail0/en/c/424910/. Some of the countries included in the table do not conduct IPC analyses. When IPC analyses are available, the numbers are used. When IPC analyses are not available, the numbers of people in each column of the table are derived from the available information taking into account IPC Phase description and thresholds de�ned in the IPC reference table for food security indicators.

9 https://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/sites/devco/�les/report-food-crisis-jrc-20160425_en_.pdf 10 89% of Syrian refugees in Lebanon.

11 Reference is pre-con�ict population.

Phases 3 and 4, depicting the worst situation since the start of the con�ict in December 2013 and a continued seasonal deterioration compared to 2.8 million people in the January–March 2016 period. The highest proportions of populations in IPC Phases 3 and 4 is in the former Unity State (75 percent) – mainly due to insecurity and former Northern Bahr el Ghazal State (60 percent) — mostly attributed to market disruptions and deteriorating terms of trade. Approximately 300 000 people are the urban poor/food insecure located in Juba, Wau and Aweil towns. The current deterioration in food security conditions is primarily due to con�ict, the e�ects of the economic crisis and high food prices, compounded by the deepening of the lean season.

Burundi

The socio-political crisis prevailing in Burundi since mid-2015 has caused population displacement, loss of job opportunities as well as the restriction of usual and seasonal movement of goods and people — not only inside the country but also in neighbouring countries such as Rwanda and Tanzania. In June 2014, 1.3 million people were already food insecure according to the IPC analysis, as a result of below-average rainfall coupled with structural causes. In June 2016, one year after the current crisis started, this figure had increased by one million. The drylands of the eastern region and wetlands were classified in IPC Phase 3 “Crisis”, as of May-June 2016. Some municipalities located around Bujumbura, Nyanza-Lac and Giharo were also classified in IPC Phase 3. The number of people in IPC Phase 3 (“Crisis”) and Phase 4 (“Emergency”) is approximately 2.3 million. The main causes of food insecurity include: population displacements and restrictions on the movements of goods and people due to the socio-political crisis; as well as limited availability of food due to the poor performance of the agricultural season. The impact of these developments on food security has been exacerbated by structural issues, which have resulted in high levels of poverty and chronic food insecurity. Insecurity, displacement, disrupted livelihood activities and cross-border trade continue to undermine communities’ access to food and income and have resulted in a dramatic deterioration of food security.

Lake Chad Basin

Around 21 million people live in the a�ected areas in the four countries bordering Lake Chad. Due to the con�ict caused by Boko Haram, the number of displaced people in the most a�ected areas has tripled over the last two years. Most of the displaced families are sheltered by local communities with limited resources; hence food insecurity and malnutrition in the region have reached alarming levels. Overall, in the con�ict-a�ected areas of Niger, Nigeria and Chad, the population in CH Phase 3 “Crisis” is 2.8 million and the population in CH Phase 4 “Emergency” is 344 000. In addition, according to WFP’s Emergency Food Security Assessment (September 2015), in far north Cameroon, 1.4 million people are estimated to be food insecure, equivalent to CH phase 3 “Crisis” and above. The majority (65 percent) of the population in need of urgent assistance (CH Phase 3 and above) in the Lake Chad Basin is in Nigeria. Global acute malnutrition rates for children under �ve have surpassed the 10 percent critical threshold in Borno and Yobe states in Nigeria, and also in con�ict-a�ected areas of Cameroon, Chad and Niger. According to a recent alert raised by FEWS NET, WFP, FAO and the Comité Inter-Etat pour la Lutte contre la Sécheresse au Sahel (CILSS) the food security situation is deteriorating. The Nigerian Minister of Health has declared a “nutrition emergency” in Borno State and information from recent rapid assessments, although limited and not statistically representative, raise the possibility that a “Famine” (IPC/CH Phase 5) could be occurring in the worst a�ected and less accessible pockets of the state. The main causes of acute food insecurity in the region are the compounding e�ects of the escalated con�ict and insecurity, which have resulted in massive displacements, reduced agriculture activity and harvest, market disruptions, dwindling employment opportunities and income. Combined with high in�ation and exchange rate �uctuations, these factors have a�ected the purchasing power of poor households, thereby limiting their �nancial access to food.

For enquiries or further information contact:WFP VAM: [email protected] | http://vam.wfp.org/

IPC Global Support Unit: [email protected] | www.ipcinfo.org/

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CONTEXT

Conflict has been one of the main food security drivers in Afghanistan. The security situation in the country deteriorated following the withdrawal of international forces which was completed in December 2014. The conflict caused growing displacement of more than 197 000 individuals in the first nine months of 2015. This was an increase of more than 64 percent from 2014 during the same period. By end of year 2015, the internally displaced persons (IDP) task force in the regions had estimated that more than 324 000 individuals may become displaced due to conflict. From January to April 2016, almost 118 000 individuals fled their houses due to conflict around the country. In 24 out of 34 provinces, some level of forced displacement was recorded.

The effects of the conflict and instability on food security are aggravated by chronic poverty and inequality. More than 70 percent of the population lives on less than two dollars a day, resulting in lack of access to health services, chronic malnutrition and high levels of infant and maternal mortality. Those most vulnerable to acute food insecurity include IDPs affected by conflict, returnees and households affected by natural disasters.

Floods are among the most frequent and costly natural disasters in terms of human hardship and economic loss. As much as 80 percent of the damage related to all natural disasters is caused by floods and associated debris flows. The winter season which usually lasts from January to March is the agricultural lean season when there is no or limited agricultural activity and households mostly depend on food stocks and purchase from market.

Despite the fact only about 12 percent of the land is arable, agriculture contributed to about one quarter of the national GDP, and employs 45 percent of the poor. Although Afghanistan continues to import cereals and wheat flour, partially to offset the lack of domestic milling capacity, domestic cereal production is an important contribution to the country’s food security. On average, about 2.2 million hectares are cultivated with wheat annually.

FACTORS DRIVING ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY According to the IPC analysis for the period December 2015 to March 2016, the main driving factors of food insecurity were the following:

1. Ongoing conflict, which affects all food security dimensions. 2. Seasonal factors that affect household access to food. This includes:

• Rise of food prices. • Depletion of poor households’ food stocks. • Reduced mobility due to road blockage caused by snow. As a result, households have more difficulties to access

markets to sell or buy products. This is exacerbated by limited market functionality, which distorts food prices and deteriorates purchasing power of the poor.

• Limited opportunities of wage labour caused by a reduction of agriculture activities due to winter conditions. • Lack of grazing land due to winter conditions, this negatively affects body conditions of animals and income

obtained from the selling of livestock. 3. Limited access to land and agricultural inputs. This results in low household food production, thereby increasing their

dependency on markets as a source of food. 4. The reduction of the coalition forces is also affecting the local economy of the areas where these forces were

deployed, with a reduction in the amount of job opportunities for the local population. 5. Low resilience of disaster-‐affected populations, serious erosion or depletion of livelihood assets during a hard 2015

lean season in many provinces. 6. Poor access to safe water and improved sanitation, inadequate food preparation and storage, combined with high

illiteracy rates of women is an impediment. 7. Humanitarian assistance not reaching certain disaster-‐affected populations due to localised conflicts or remoteness

of their location, especially in southern and northeastern Afghanistan. 8. Remote location and poor roads networks are a major issue in mountainous areas of Badakhshan, where winters are

harsh and occurrences of natural disasters are high. In this area, 63 percent of the population is poor and highly vulnerable to food insecurity.

9. Population displacements. IDPs that are returning to their home provinces in the north and the influx of refugees from Pakistan have limited access to secure livelihoods.

CONTACT WFP VAM : [email protected] http://vam.wfp.org/ IPC Global Support Unit: [email protected] www.ipcinfo.org

The above information and data are based on the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) food security analysis conducted by the IPC Afghanistan Technical Working Group, available at: (http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-‐detail-‐forms/ipcinfo-‐map-‐detail/en/c/356932/)

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CONTEXT

Burundi ranks first among the world's poorest countries with a GDP of USD 315.2 per person. It is also the most food insecure country in East Africa, with a Global Hunger Index greater than 30, compared with neighbouring countries. This context of fragility is compounded by extreme poverty as 64 percent of the population currently lives below the poverty line.

Family farming, which is the main livelihood for nearly 90 percent of the population, has been long undermined and notably affected by long years of civil war and now finds itself destabilized by weather hazards and recurring natural disasters.

The 2016 first cropping season was subject to disruptions due to political tensions in the country that led to the migration of hundreds of thousands of people to neighbouring countries (over 260 000 in the month of September according to UNHCR). The most affected areas include the outskirts of Bujumbura (epicentre of the crisis), the provinces of Central, East-‐North and East where casual labour opportunities (contributing to over 40 percent of household income) have significantly reduced due to the current crisis.

FACTORS DRIVING ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY

1. Population displacements and movement restrictions due to the socio-‐political crisis

Political instability and insecurity, which have prevailed in Burundi since mid-‐2015 have pushed more than 260 000 refugees to flee their homes and resulted in 25 300 internally displaced persons (IDPs). Combined with the deterioration of economic conditions since April 2015 and falling agricultural production due movement restrictions coupled with natural disasters, these developments have resulted in a fragile food security situation among vulnerable households. Reduced work opportunities have led communities to sell their productive assets and engage in other coping mechanisms that are detrimental to their well-‐being and livelihoods. For instance, the WFP EFSA survey conducted in April 2016 reported that 12 percent of the households surveyed in the country were in the process of destocking livestock. Ongoing political instability and insecurity have also resulted in restrictions to usual/seasonal movements of goods and people, not only within the country but also in neighbouring countries, namely Rwanda and Tanzania. These developments have negatively impacted on the availability of food for purchase as well as people’s livelihoods and income. 2. Low food availability and high food prices

Crop production in the 2016 first cropping season was similar to the same period last year, with an overall decrease of 2.1 percent. However, the overall national deficit remains high and has increased as food imports -‐ which account for around 30 percent of food availability – have been hampered by insecurity and lack of hard currency. While abundant rainfall favoured a stable production of tubers, bananas and cereals compared to the same season in 2015, these caused a 7 percent drop in legumes production, which is very sensitive to excess rainfall. In addition, access to food has become increasingly problematic, particularly in the provinces of Dry Plates in which more than 60 percent of households are making use of non-‐preferred food. More than 50 percent of the households use the market as their main source of food, which increases the vulnerability of these provinces that are already experiencing a fall in income. Moreover, food commodities prices remain high compared to the same period in the previous year and compared to the 10-‐year average, with an increase of 25-‐45 percent, which is limiting access to adequate food for many households.

3. Structural causes and chronic food insecurity

The effects of the ongoing crisis are more significant in the areas affected by high chronic food insecurity. Structural factors, for which there are no short-‐term solutions, such as soil degradation resulting in lower soil fertility, high demographic pressure, rising poverty, high prevalence of diseases and the deterioration of the environment, all contribute to household vulnerability and low resilience to shocks in the long term.

CONTACT WFP VAM : [email protected] http://vam.wfp.org/ IPC Global Support Unit: www.ipcinfo.org

The above information and data are based on the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) food security analysis conducted by the IPC Burundi Technical Working Group, available at: (http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-‐countries/ipcinfo-‐eastern-‐middle-‐africa/Burundi)

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Source: Central African Republic IPC Technical Working Group, December 2015 (http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-detail-forms/ipcinfo-map-detail/en/c/426225/)

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CONTEXT Since independence in 1960, CAR has seen several periods of instability and violence, which have severely impacted on its socio-‐economic development so that it ranks only 185 out of 187 in the UNDP Global Human Development Index. As a direct consequence of the conflict, a humanitarian crisis with an unprecedented scale of forced displacement and violence erupted. At the peak of the emergency, in early 2014, 935 000 people were displaced. Despite some improvements, the security situation remains volatile, with relatively calm periods interspersed with recrudescence of violence triggering new displacements.

According to the IPC Acute analysis which took place in December 2015, the most vulnerable populations are displaced persons living with host families or in IDP camps. According to the Commission of Population Movement, between November 2014 and December 2015 the number of IDPs increased by 42 000 people. The areas with the largest concentration of IDPs are Ouaka, Ouham, Haut-‐Mbomou, Nana Gribizi and Bangui.


Following three years of crisis, the already fragile food security situation has sharply deteriorated. The conflict-‐affected population has progressively depleted their assets, while food availability and access constraints due to widespread insecurity persist.

1. Persistence of insecurity and displacements

According to the Emergency Food Security Assessment (December 2015), intercommunal clashes have led to massive population displacements across the country in recent years. With the persistence of violence, populations continue to move. Some 45 percent of households are displaced (17.7 percent) or returnees (27.3 percent). Almost all of the displaced households left their usual residence due to security concerns. Of these displaced persons and returnees, 55 percent are recently displaced (within one year) and 27 percent are very recently displaced (less than six months). These movements contribute to the household resources depletion, poverty and food insecurity as they often abandon much of their assets and do not take their belongings with them.

As a consequence, livelihood and access to food are affected by daily insecurity, looting, theft and forced displacement. Despite humanitarian assistance throughout the country, the food security situation deteriorated overall: the number of households with inadequate (poor and borderline) food consumption doubled, increasing from 24 percent in 2014 to 44.2 percent in 2015. In relation to the analysis of November 2014 and April 2015, the stable security situation in some prefectures allowed a relative return of families to their livelihoods. However, the lean season will come earlier and harder than usual in some prefectures that rely heavily on the seasonality due to low food stocks. The ongoing political and military crisis will affect the usual and seasonal coping mechanisms and will be more complex to adopt.

2. Disruptions to livelihood activities and loss of productive assets

The widespread and persistent insecurity has impacted negatively on agricultural activities including crop production, livestock rearing and fishing. In 2015, crop production was estimated at 838 671 tonnes, 54 percent lower than the pre-‐crisis average but 10 percent up on 2014, due to increased cassava production. By contrast, cereal output, already reduced in the previous two seasons, recorded a 4 percent decrease from 2014, and was 70 percent lower than the pre-‐crisis average (2008-‐2012).

Cattle and small ruminant numbers are estimated to have declined by 46 and 57 percent from the pre-‐crisis levels, respectively. Fish supply, which in 2014 was 40 percent below the pre-‐crisis average, did not increase in 2015 due to insecurity along waterways, loss of fishing equipment and overexploitation in some areas which led to the exhaustion of fish stocks.

3. Reduced access and availability of food due to trade disruptions

Food insecurity is exacerbated by poor weather conditions mainly linked to the delayed start of the rainy season. The low production coupled with the escalation of inter-‐communal conflict produce a decrease in market food supply and trade corridors disruptions. This adds up to the structural condition of poor roads and traders weak stocking capacity. This decrease in supply entails an increase in prices of principal commodities, especially food commodities. In Bangui, prices of several food items, already at high levels, further increased in October 2015 due to trade disruptions following an upsurge of intercommunal violence in September 2015. The price of groundnuts, wheat flour, beef meat and fish in October are between 22 and 87 percent higher than their pre-‐crisis levels.

CONTACT WFP VAM : [email protected] http://vam.wfp.org IPC Global Support Unit: [email protected] www.ipcinfo.org

The above information and data are based on the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) food security analysis conducted by the IPC Central African Republic Technical Working Group, available at: (http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-detail-forms/ipcinfo-map-detail/en/c/426225/)

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CONTEXT

Five decades of armed conflict in Colombia have directly affected some eight million people, of which 6.8 million have been displaced (Unit for Victims -‐ UARIV, 2016). This level of IDPs, places the country ahead of any other country. Ethnic minorities have been particularly affected by violence.

The recently signed ceasefire could finally lead to an improvement of the socioeconomic environment of the affected populations. It is anticipated that with the cessation of hostilities the rural populations directly affected by the conflict will see an improvement in their food security situation, as a more stable security environment will allow the resumption of farming activities, better functioning of markets and access to government assistance.

One of the main food security challenges for Colombia is improving its “triple” malnutrition burden. The population is suffering from: chronic malnutrition (13.2 percent of children under five years), micronutrient deficiencies (28 percent of children under five years anaemic) and obesity (51 percent of the population) (National Survey of the Nutritional Situation -‐ ENSIN, 2010).


The armed conflict, by its magnitude, coverage, duration and number of people affected has represented the greatest threat to cyclical food insecurity in Colombia. Indigenous people and rural populations located in isolated areas are the most vulnerable and have been largely affected by the conflict.

About 94 percent of the displaced population is food insecure, compared with 43 percent nationally. Among these populations anaemia rates in children under five are between 53 and 78 percent compared to 28 percent nationally. In conflict-‐affected areas anaemia rates of the indigenous population is also found to be as high as 87 percent (2013 WFP).

Forced displacement

Forced displacements, one of the main effects of the armed conflict, continues to impact agricultural production in affected areas, as thousands of farmers have been left landless and unable to produce their own food. The IDPs have limited economic resources, productive assets and housing, and do not have access to an adequate social safety net systems that could mitigate these shocks. Displacement has had a greater impact among indigenous people, of the total displaced population, 13 percent are from ethnic minorities (UARIV, 2016).

According to official data, between 1985 and August 2015 about seven million people were internally displaced in Colombia (14.5 percent of the total population). The National Unit for Integral Attention to Victims has recently doubled its efforts to offer reparation to IDPs and to assess through more precise tools their situation and needs, even several years after the displacement. Many IDPs may have returned to their places of origin and others may have integrated into the receiving communities or relocated to different municipalities. However, this does not necessarily mean that they have reintegrated, as many of them still have displacement-‐related needs, thus there is a need to create conditions for durable solutions. Many returns are spontaneous or unaccompanied posing multiple challenges in terms of humanitarian assistance and sustainable solutions.

The livelihoods of the vulnerable rural population receiving displaced people are also affected due to competition for limited local resources and employment opportunities, creating food shortages.

In the past, occasional restrictions of movement have also affected access to food, fuel, markets, education, health and other basic goods. It is anticipated that with a more stable security environment, access to these services will improve.

The peace agreement between the Government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia -‐ FARC-‐EP signed in July 2016 creates the conditions to reduce violent events associated with the armed conflict. However, the existence of other illegal armed groups, unrelated to the peace process, still poses a threat for the Colombian population.

Mobility restrictions and access constraints

Constraints to the free movement of civilians and to their access to basic services are widespread in rural and urban areas affected by the armed conflict. According to conflict analysts and field assessments findings, mobility restrictions and access constraints are increasingly caused by mechanisms of social control put in place by non-‐state armed groups, post-‐demobilization armed groups and local armed structures, both in rural and urban contexts. Some of these strategies include threats, imposition of “codes of conduct”, “invisible boundaries”, restrictions to the State’s assistance programs, as well as armed actions with low military effort and high impact, such as attacks on oil, energy and road infrastructure.

Natural disasters

Colombia is also prone to natural disasters. The impact of the 2015/16 El Niño is of particular concern, especially on vulnerable communities and rural indigenous people.


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CONTEXT

A complex emergency has persisted in DRC for more than 20 years. Conflict between foreign, self-‐defence and other armed groups, mainly impacting the eastern provinces, has left the country in a state of prolonged, severe humanitarian crisis. Although the security situation has improved slightly since 2013, when the Government defeated the M23 rebel group in North-‐Kivu, humanitarian needs remain and the conflict continues to cause population displacements. Clashes between armed groups and the DRC armed forces are affecting populations mainly in South-‐ and North-‐Kivu, Ituri, Tanganyika, and Haut-‐Katanga provinces. Humanitarian access constraints remain in the east, and lack of infrastructure is a general problem across the country. As of late March 2016, the internally displaced persons caseload was estimated at 1.8 million, 300 000 more than in December 2015, mainly due to worsening security conditions in South-‐Kivu and North-‐Kivu provinces.


1. Attacks by armed groups and intercommunal violence

The former Eastern Province (Mambasa, Bafwasende Bondo, Ango, Dungu, Faradje and Aru), North Kivu (Lubero, Rutshuru, Masisi and Walikale), South Kivu for the territories of Shabunda, Walungu (Kaniola health zone), Fizi (Fizi health zone), Kalehe (Zone Kalonge and Minova in blast trays), Kabare (Chiefdom Nindja) and Mwenga (Mwenga area) and the former Katanga (Manono, Mitwaba, Pweto, Moba and Nyunzu) continue to experience frequent attacks provoked either by armed groups or as a result of intercommunal clashes.

2. Influx of refugees in areas with already precarious food security situations

At the end of 2015, it was estimated that 1.5 million people were displaced in DRC and the country was hosting more than 250 000 refugees from neighbouring countries (OCHA, ABH 2016). This situation particularly affects the territories in Equateur (Bosobolo, Libenge and Mobayi-‐Mbongo) and Eastern Province (about 113 000 refugees from CAR as of late May) and South Kivu (about 23 000 refugees from Burundi as of early July).

3. Other causes: Natural disasters, high food prices, market disruptions and animal/plant diseases

• Flooding: the torrential rains received in the last quarter of 2015 and in the first quarter of 2016, linked to the strong El Niño episode, resulted in widespread floods, which affected more than 770 000 people and caused the displacement of more than 40 000 individuals. The most affected areas are located along the Congo River and in the former Katanga Province. Flooding in Ituri, district and in the provinces of Tshopo, Maniema, Mongala, and the former Katanga caused the destruction of more than 5 500 hectares of cropland. Destruction of food stocks has also been reported in Manono, Nyunzu, and Kalemie territories in Tanganyika.

• High food prices and market disruptions: in Lubumbashi market, located in the southern Haut Katanga province, prices of maize flour surged by about 60 percent between February and April, in part due to reduced imports from neighbouring Zambia.

• The recurrence of animal diseases and plant diseases has also impacted negatively on household food security.


The above information and data are based on the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) food security analysis conducted by the IPC Democratic Republic of Congo Technical Working Group, available at: ( http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-‐countries/ipcinfo-‐eastern-‐middle-‐africa/Democratic%20Republic%20of%20Congo)

GUINEA BISSAU

FOOD SECURITY UPDATE

KEY FIGURES and HIGHLIGHTS July 2016

25 000 people

0.6% of the population were projected to be in CH Phase 3 (March 2016) and require urgent food, nutrition and livelihoods assistance

No population in Phase 4 in March 2016. Food security situation expected to improve significantly in 2016.

Rice production estimated to have increased by 28% in 2015 from the 2014 reduced output.

Projected (June–August 2016) humanitarian assistance needed: -‐ 179 195 people (8.3%) are in CH Phase 2. -‐ 25 917 people (0.6%) are in CH Phase 3.

The 2015/2016 agricultural campaign has been relatively positive compared to the previous year (considered very bad) and markets are everywhere sufficiently well supplied; prices of certain foods remain generally slightly high compared to those of last year. This makes it more difficult access to basic food in all regions of the country.

The food security situation remains difficult but not alarming in all regions of the country. A good part of the population, especially the poor, suffer from lack of food. The marketing campaign of the cashew nut in 2016 could be a lifeline for farmer households as the price reaches the level of the prices in 2015.

FOOD INSECURITY SITUATION – Cadre Harmonisé (CH) Projected Food Insecurity Situation: (June – August 2016)

There is convergence between the IPC and the CH tools and procedures, sharing the same Analytical Framework. The IPC is supporting the technical development and testing of CH tools and procedures in the region.

CONTEXT

Guinea-‐Bissau is highly dependent on rice imports. Approximately 40 percent of the national cereal requirements are met through imports, and sales of cashew nuts normally enables farmers to purchases imported rice, which supplements supplies from their own production. The combined effects of unstable production and producer prices, the recent 2011-‐2012 Sahel food crises and political instability, have eroded vulnerable households’ coping mechanisms and resulted in protracted food insecurity in large parts of the country and persisting acute malnutrition. Although the 2015/2016 agricultural campaign was good with regard to the previous year (considered very bad) and in spite of well supplied markets , the prices of certain food products remain slightly higher compared to last year, adversely affecting food access.. According to the latest Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis from March 2016, the situation indicates that of the eight concerned regions, four regions (Biombo, Bafata, Quinara and Tombali) are in CH Phase 1 “Minimal” and four regions (Gabu, Cacheu, Oio and Bolama) are in CH Phase 2, “Stressed”. In the projected situation (June-‐August 2016), the total number of people in food insecurity will be approximately 205 000 people, about 10 percent of the total population, among which 179 000 people are estimated to be in CH Phase 2 “Stressed” and 25 000 people in CH Phase 3 “Crisis”.


1. Adequate rains in 2015 resulted in significant recovery of agricultural production

Harvesting of rice, the major crop produced in Guinea-‐Bissau, was completed in January 2016. There was a slow start of the rainy season; however, precipitation increased significantly from July to October, resulting in widespread planting of cereals. This, combined with increased Government and international support, led to a significant recovery in cereal production after the previous year’s reduced crop. According to official sources, aggregate cereal production in 2015 is estimated to have increased by 28 percent (compared to 2014) to about 208 600 tonnes. However, this level of production is still 9 percent below average. Production of rice (paddy), the most important staple, also increased by 28 percent compared to the previous year’s output.

2. Food security situation expected to improve in 2015/16 The producer price of cashew was estimated to have increased by 40-70 percent in 2015, which resulted in a gain to farmers’ income. The combined effects of higher producer prices and increased domestic production have resulted in an improved food security situation in the 2015/16 marketing year (November/October). About 6 568 people are estimated to be in Phase 3 “Crisis” and above according to the latest CH analysis conducted in the country. This represents a 97 percent decrease compared to last year.


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CONTEXT Haiti is the poorest country in the Western Hemisphere, and the second most densely populated. The country is ranked 77 out of 79 in the 2012 Global Hunger Index and suffers from a dramatic income gap. Haiti is a food deficit country (WFP 2012). Fifty percent of the country’s food requirements are imported. The strong devaluation of the local currency and high dependency on imported foods, due to the recent drought and consequent reduced harvest, has resulted in an increase in the price of imported foods. This increase has led to an overall loss of purchasing power for the majority of Haitians. Low agricultural productivity and urban encroachment on arable land provide additional challenges for Haiti’s rural populations. Average land holdings are less than one ha in size (IFAD 2012). Only one in every five farmers depends solely on farming his or her own land. Some 80 percent of farms fail to produce enough to feed their households. Other income-‐generating activities include wage labour on larger farms, extraction of sand, chalk, or charcoal, and small-‐scale trade. Remittances are also crucial for the survival of the poorest populations, accounting for 15 percent of rural incomes.

Haiti is also susceptible to climate-‐related disasters such as floods, hurricanes and earthquakes. In January 2010, Haiti was struck by a powerful earthquake that left more than 220 000 people dead and millions displaced. This disaster was followed by a widespread outbreak of cholera in October 2010. With a high probability of a La Niña event occurring towards the end of 2016, the country might again be exposed to excessive rains which could result in severe flooding and reduction of harvests.


1. Economic recovery from El Niño The El Niño phenomenon remained active during both growing seasons for 2015, with the lowest rainfall in 30 years across most areas during the spring season, and resulted in significant dry spells throughout the year. There were water shortages in virtually all parts of the country, particularly on the Southern Peninsula and the Central Plateau and in the South-‐East, North-‐West, upper Artibonite, North-‐East, and West Departments. Rainfall levels in most of these areas were at barely 50 percent of figures for 2014, which was already below average. The drought resulted in crop losses that were greater than 50 percent with respect to the country’s five-‐year average. In the northeast, southeast, the west, northwest and the south, farmers, having deteriorated their productive assets, will have difficulties in acquiring needed agricultural inputs for the main spring agricultural season, which is currently underway, and this may result in significant reductions in the planted area.

2. Drought effects on agricultural production The drought reduced agricultural outputs of 2014 and 2015 have deteriorated the economic assets of rural household. The Food Security Evaluation in Emergency Situations, undertaken in December 2015, found that for 60 percent of households, the drought was the main shock they were exposed to in the previous 12-‐month period. The 2015 national level production for cereals, pulses and starchy roots has been estimated at more than 24 percent below the drought-‐reduced output of 2014 and more than 50 percent below the country’s five-‐year average. With the limited volume of crop production, local markets have become virtually the only source of food in practically all departments with the exception of the lower Artibonite and a few communes in Nord Department, on the Les Cayes Plain, and in Torbeck, where irrigation systems are maintaining more or less adequate levels of production.

3. Import-‐dependent markets As result of the tight supplies of local foodstuffs, markets are mainly being supplied by imported products. Latest data from FAO estimates that for the 2015/16 marketing year (July/June) cereal imports reached 669 000 tonnes or an 18 percent increase from the previous year’s high level. Most of the increase in cereal imports has been of rice, which in 2015 was estimated at 415 000 tonnes. Early forecast for the 2016/17 marketing year point to a moderate reduction in cereal imports of 3 percent from last year, reflecting the tight supplies in the local market. The stability and declining trends of prices in the international market has helped dampen some of the effects of the depreciating currency. However, the high levels of imports continue to strain the finances of the local government.

4. Deterioration of overall food security In a context of overall reduced incomes, the increase in prices has reduced access to food of very poor households. Prices of imported foods remain relatively high, reflecting the weakness of the gourde, the local currency. Among the coping mechanisms that households are resorting to include: an increased frequency of food purchases on credit, substitution for cheaper goods which tend to also have lower caloric content (such as sweet potatoes) and a reduction of food portions.

Food prices remain above average, particularly for locally produced foods following poor crop production in 2014 and 2015. As of January 2016, the price of maize meal, one of the main crops grown in Haiti, was from six to 120 percent above the five-‐year average. On the other hand, prices for imports such as rice are relatively stable despite the continued depreciation of the gourde against the US dollar.

The analysis of the main indicators relative to the food consumption reveals that only half of the population has an acceptable level of consumption, and the risk of severe malnutrition exists because of an insufficient consumption of iron-‐ and vitamin A-‐rich foods.

CONTACT IPC Global Support Unit: [email protected] www.ipcinfo.org WFP VAM : [email protected] http://vam.wfp.org/

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CONTEXT

Iraq faces a complex and humanitarian crisis. According to UNOCHA’s humanitarian needs overview for 2016, over 10 million people need some form of humanitarian assistance. Depending on the intensity of fighting and the scale of violence in the months ahead, 11 million Iraqis, perhaps even 12 million to 13 million, may need some form of humanitarian assistance by the end of 2016. Access to the most vulnerable people remains a key challenge, limiting the provision of life-‐saving assistance. As displacement protracts and people exhaust their income and assets, they are in growing need of assistance to access basic services. Meanwhile, the Government’s social protection floor, including support for frontline health care, emergency shelter, education, and water and sanitation is contracting. As a result, Iraqi families who are unable to find the support and security they need are running out of options to cope.

Security concerns, access to fields and disrupted procurement and distribution systems are expected to aggravate the situation further. In May, there was an increase in the number of suicide attacks across Iraq, primarily in Anbar Governorate and in Baghdad.

In the long term, access to agricultural land in liberated areas will be affected by the high number of unexploded ordinance and mines laid by ISIL. The Salahedin and Ninewa governorates, at the centre of the continuing conflict, normally produce nearly one-‐third and about 38 percent of the total annual national wheat and barley production, respectively.


Conflict and socio-‐economic impacts

As of June 2016, there are about 3.3 million people displaced within Iraq, of whom nearly 2 million have been displaced since January 2014. Many of these people have been repeatedly displaced. In addition, heavy rains in late October caused flooding which affected at least 84 000 displaced people staying in more than 40 sites and camps, mostly in Baghdad and Anbar governorates.

Conflict is negatively affecting food security of the Iraqi population. One out of four IDP households is using negative coping strategies. Among displaced people, about 70 percent report poor and borderline level food consumption scores in Anbar, Kirkuk, Ninewa, and Salahedin governorates.

Food security conditions are likely to deteriorate with a large number of IDPs putting strain on hosting communities, in particular as a large share of IDPs have fled towards cities in the Kurdish Region of Iraq.

Farmers and rural households have been heavily affected by the current conflict. Farmers in conflict areas are resorting to negative livelihood coping strategies such as having to sell their livestock at lower prices, either for generating fast cash or because of their inability to afford fodder and vaccination for their cattle.

Employment is a high priority among displaced people across Iraq, reported by 42 percent of households. Employment rates and access to livelihoods are lower for people residing inside camps compared to those outside. The average monthly income for people living in camps (USD 382) was also lower than those outside camps (USD 599).

CONTACT WFP VAM : [email protected] http://vam.wfp.org/

IPC Global Support Unit: [email protected] www.ipcinfo.org

IVORY COAST FOOD SECURITY UPDATE


277 200 people

1% of the population are in CH 3 as of June 2016 and require urgent food, nutrition and livelihoods assistance.

No population in Phase 4 for June – August 2016. Low erratic rainfall in the East of the country. Urgent food, nutrition and livelihoods assistance needed: -‐ 2.5 million people (14.7%) are in CH Phase 2 -‐ 277 200 (2.3%) are in CH Phase 3

• Agricultural production for the 2015/2016 season was satisfactory despite the late start of the rain. The production of cereals (rice, maize, millet, sorghum and fonio) stood at 2 639 727 tonnes, marking an 8.8 percent increase compared to 2014.

• 2015 production of tubers (yams, cassava, taro and sweet potato) is estimated at 12 514 534 tonnes. An increase of 9.74 percent compared to the previous year.

• The markets are operating normally with a satisfactory level of supply despite the slight decrease in the supply of certain food products (okra, eggplant, plantain). The price trend is stable, however these prices could increase slightly during the lean period.

• Currently household-‐level food stocks are estimated to last between two and eight months depending on the crop. • The nutritional situation still remains precarious mostly due to eating habits and poor dietary diversification. Additionally, the

high cost of animal protein affects the ability of households to access these food items.

FOOD INSECURITY SITUATION – Cadre Harmonisé (CH)


CONTEXT

• Ivory Coast is returning to stability after a decade of insecurity and social unrest, during which time cooperation was dominated by agricultural emergency and rehabilitation assistance. Interventions today are aimed at transforming agriculture into a productive and income-‐generating sector in order to drive the country’s progress towards sustainable development, food security and consolidated peace.

• The country is self-‐sufficient in several food items, mainly fruits and vegetables. Imports of food include staple cereals rice and wheat, as well as animal products that are mostly sourced from northern border countries and Europe.

• The food security situation in Ivory Coast is acceptable and overall stable in most parts of the country with the exception of the western area where some pockets of vulnerability persist. At present, rural households have food stock for a duration varying from three to seven months.

• The Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis conducted in March 2016, identified the west as the single region that was “stressed” (CH Phase 2). Compared with 2015, the food security situation deteriorated only in the west with 277 000 in CH Phase 3 versus 117 000 in March 2015.


1. Civil strife hampered agricultural production and access to food in recent years Agriculture has been seriously damaged in recent years due to the civil strife. Labour shortages caused by population displacements, poor agricultural support services in certain parts of the country, mainly in the northern half, market dysfunctionalities related to civil insecurity have all had a serious negative impact on agricultural production and food markets. These problems were exacerbated by the 2010-2011 post-election crisis, which forced over 300 000 people to leave the country and seek refuge, mostly in eastern Liberia, while thousands of others were internally displaced. Most displaced persons have returned to their areas of origin, following the improvement of the security situation. However, UNHCR estimated that about 60 000 Ivoirians were still living in neighbouring countries, mostly in Liberia (38 000) and Ghana (11 500).

2. Cereal production increased further in 2015

Harvesting of the 2015 second season maize crop in the southern part of the country was completed in January 2016. In the northern part, which has only one rainy season, harvesting of coarse grains was completed in November 2015. In spite of erratic precipitation in parts of the country, 2015 cereal production increased further compared to the previous year’s above-average level. Production of maize, the main staple cereal, is estimated to have increased by 7 percent compared to the record crop in 2014.

3. Continued assistance still needed for vulnerable people

The lingering effects of the 2010 civil strife have had a very adverse, longer-term impact on household assets and savings, notably in the northern part of the country. In addition, the areas affected by irregular rains in 2015 are expected to experience increased food insecurity and malnutrition in the 2015/16 crop season. Several segments of the population still need food and non-food assistance to restore their livelihoods and enable them to have better access to food. About 277 000 people are estimated to be in CH Phase 3 “Crisis”, according to the March 2016 CH analysis conducted in the country.


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CONTEXT

Around 21 million people live in the affected areas across the four Lake Chad countries. Across the region, over 2.7 million people are displaced, most of whom are hosted by already vulnerable households. The combined effects of recent civil insecurity, displacement and livelihood loss, combined with structural vulnerabilities deriving from high population growth, environmental degradation, poverty and under-‐investment in social services, are creating record numbers of people in need of urgent assistance.


1. Nigeria : Borno and Yobe State The conflict between Boko Haram and the Nigerian Armed Forces has escalated since 2012 and is concentrated in the northeast and around Lake Chad, particularly in Borno State. Although, in the past year, Government forces have retaken significant territory and Boko Haram fighters are reportedly concentrated in remote areas of the Lake Chad region. The conflict in the northeastern states (Adamawa, Borno and Yobe) has dramatically affected the population and resulted in 2.1 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), refugees and returnees. According to a recent alert raised by FEWS NET, WFP, FAO and the Comité Inter-‐Etat pour la Lutte contre la Sécheresse au Sahel (CILSS), the food security situation is deteriorating. The Nigerian Minister of Health has declared a “nutrition emergency” in Borno State and information from recent rapid assessments, although limited and not statistically representative, raise the possibility that a “Famine” (CH/IPC Phase 5) could be occurring in the worst affected and less accessible pockets of the state. According to the CH analysis conducted in February 2016, cereals, tubers and cash crops such as cowpea, sesame, and groundnut is favorable in most areas across the states with the exception of areas affected by the conflict. In these zones, the impact of the conflict on livelihoods, markets, and humanitarian access has severely limited access to food for both resident populations and displaced households. Even in areas where market access is more adequate, households face very high staple food prices due to the declining value of the Nigerian Naira.

2. Niger: Diffa Region

According to CH analysis (March 2016), in Diffa region, the dramatic situation is explained not only by the poor harvest of the 2015-‐2016 agricultural campaign resulting from unfavourable climatic conditions, but also by the security situation that negatively impacted the livelihoods of the populations in the areas hit by Boko Haram attacks. These have spread to Niger over the past year, striking the country’s poorest region, Diffa. In Niger there are 241 000 IDPs, refugees and returnees. The displaced and refugees arrivals are overwhelming for the host communities; food and livelihood resources are under extreme pressure and solidarity mechanisms have become overstretched.

3. Chad: The Lac Region

Since the beginning of 2015, the security situation in the Chad’s Lake region has significantly deteriorated, affecting the food security of both displaced communities and the local population. Violent raids at the start of 2015 triggered an initial arrival of Nigerian refugees and Chadian returnees, which was followed by successive waves of displacement since July 2015. Chad hosts a large number of refugees due to the ongoing civil conflict in neighbouring countries: Central African Republic, Libya, Nigeria and the Sudan. Indeed, over 380 000 refugees are estimated to be currently living in Chad, while about 91 383 Chadians have returned to the country. In addition, according to OCHA, as of May 2016, about 101 157 people had been internally displaced, including an estimated 56 000 people displaced recently in the sub-‐prefectures of Daboua and Liwa due to insecurity in the Lake Chad Region. As a result of these developments , according to the latest CH analysis’ projections (March, 2016) for the period June-‐August 2016, over 1 million people across the country are currently estimated to be in CH Phase 3 “Crisis” and above and are in need of urgent assistance.

4. Cameroon: Far North Region

The overall food security situation has sharply deteriorated in 2015 due to multiple shocks, including the influx of refugees from the Central African Republic and Nigeria, increasing civil insecurity and natural hazards. The number of food insecure people was estimated in February 2016 at 2.4 million, more than twice the level of June 2015 (FAO GIEWS). The area most affected by food insecurity is the Far North Region, where according to an EFSA conducted by WFP in September 2015, 35 percent of the population is food insecure. In this region, 32 percent of IDPs and 22 percent of the local population have exhausted their food stocks and the percentage of households relying on humanitarian assistance increased from 6 percent in 2014 to 33 percent in 2015. IDPs are the most vulnerable group, with an increasing number resorting to negative coping strategies. It is estimated that 75 percent of IDPs have engaged in “Crisis” and “Emergency” strategies, such as the reduction of non-‐food essential expenses, sale of productive assets and begging.


IPC Global Support Unit: [email protected] www.ipcinfo.org The above information and data are based on the Cadre Harmonise (CH) food security analysis conducted by CILSS and its partners in February and March 2016. Displacement figures are based on OCHA, Lake Chad Basin: Crisis Overview, June 2016 (https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/cameroon/infographic/lake-‐chad-‐basin-‐crisis-‐overview-‐3-‐june-‐2016) and on Humanitarian Needs and Response Overview, January 2016 ( https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/cameroon/document/lake-‐chad-‐basin-‐emergency-‐humanitarian-‐needs-‐and-‐response-‐overview-‐may ). Most recent Food Security Information comes from the NIGERIA Food Security Alert, EWS NET, WFP, FAO, CILSS.: http://www.fews.net/west-‐africa/nigeria/alert/july-‐7-‐2016). Information on nutrition are based on the UN JOINT UN MULTI-‐SECTOR ASSESSMENT, Borno, April 2016.

LEBANON

Syrian Refugees FOOD SECURITY UPDATE


1.1 million people

89% of Syrian refugees (VASYR 2015) require urgent food, nutrition and livelihoods assistance

The number of food insecure Syrian refugees in Lebanon has escalated since 2014. Out of the 1 174 690 Syrian refugees in 2015, about 763 549 were estimated to be mildly food insecure (23%) and 5 873 severely food insecure (0.5%).

In 2015, the proportion of households with unacceptable Food Consumption Score increased from 12% to 17%. This deterioration is reflected in a higher proportion of households with borderline food consumption (up from 9% to 14%). The worsening situation was mainly affecting the food insecure.

The food security situation of Syrian refugees in Lebanon significantly worsened since 2014. Some 89 percent of the population was food insecure, most of them mildly food insecure (65 percent) and 23 percent moderately food insecure. It is estimated also that 46 000 Palestinian refugees and about 182 000 Lebanese are also food insecure (Vulnerability Assessment, VASYR, 2015).

For Syrian refugees in Lebanon the asset depletion coping strategies was the most striking indicator of food security: some 61 percent of households applied crisis or emergency coping strategies. Using the Food Consumption Score (FCS) as a proxy of current food security status, 17 percent of households had poor or borderline food consumption, but this prevalence was likely to increase because households were exhausting their capacity to cope with shocks and were likely to have to resort to strategies that erode their food security

In 2015, the proportion of households with unacceptable FCS increased from 12 percent to 17 percent. This deterioration is not reflected in the poorest category, which showed a slight decrease, from 3 percent to 2 percent, but in a higher proportion of households with borderline food consumption (up from 9 percent to 14 percent). This implies that the worsening situation was mainly affecting the less severely food insecure.

El Koura, Zgharta, Chouf, Zahle and Tripoli were the cazas with the highest proportion of households with unacceptable FCS (more than 25 percent) while Hasbaya, Jezzine, Marjaayoun, Baabda and Beint-‐Jbeil had the lowest (less than 5 percent).

FOOD INSECURITY SITUATION Current Food Insecurity Situation: VASYR (June 2015)

CONTEXT

With the Syrian conflict now in its sixth year, the refugees face severe restrictions on accessing the Lebanese labour market, their assets and savings are increasingly exhausted, their debts are mounting and they must fulfil specific requirements to legalize their stay in Lebanon.

Syrian refugees are still struggling to meet their most basic needs. While the security situation means returning to their homes in Syria is out of the question, their dependency on assistance is growing in parallel with the reduction of available funds. Given the limited possibilities to move to other countries, refugees continue living in a stressful context with no way out. Lebanon, and the refugees it is hosting, are in a very delicate state and the situation requires special and immediate measures.


• Conflict and socio-‐economic impacts

The main cause of food insecurity among Syrian refugees in Lebanon is lack of earning power. The restrictions on their access to the labour market, which the Lebanese Government approved at the end of 2014, has reduced their livelihood opportunities and made it even harder for them to cover their basic needs autonomously. The proportion of households with no income has increased since last year. Dependency on food vouchers and loans as the primary livelihood source has also grown. The gap between monthly expenditure and income was estimated at USD 300 which households have to cover mainly by taking on debt. Coping strategies, already limited for refugee households because of the limited number of assets they can bring to their host country, have progressively become more severe and irreversible as the remaining assets and savings were exhausted. In 2015, households engaging in emergency or crisis coping strategies (61 percent) was more than double the 2014 percentage (28 percent). Employing severe coping strategies augments the risk of future food insecurity as households have less margin to cope with possible shocks. Borrowing money was one of the most common coping strategies; around 85 percent of households borrowed money in the last three months and half of them had debts of USD 460, which was some USD 60 more than the previous year. Half of Syrian refugee households were not able to cover the survival minimum expenditure basket and 70 percent fell below the minimum expenditure basket, which represents an increase of 20 percent over 2014. The size of households reduced by more than one member, so it is expected that there will be higher expenditure per capita, however expenditures reduced at households and per capita level. About 89 percent of households reported having experienced lack of food or money to buy food in the month before and the need for food was the main reason why people borrowed money. Consumption of nutritious and healthy foods such as vitamin A rich fruit and vegetables fell and was replaced by higher consumption of fats and sugar. Infant and young child feeding practices continued to be inadequate for almost all children between six and 17 months old.

• Food availability: Although agriculture contributes only about 5.5 percent to the Lebanese GDP, about 60 percent of the population relies directly or indirectly on agricultural activities. While domestic cereal production is limited by landscape, agricultural production, particularly fruits and vegetables, is important. Out of a total agricultural area of 332 000 hectares, 230 000 are cultivated. Some 113 000 hectares are irrigated. The agricultural sector employs 6 percent of the total labour force but is a primary source of income and employment in rural areas reaching up to 25 percent of the labour force and 80 percent of local GDP in rural districts. In 2016, total cereal production was estimated at about 177 000 tonnes, similar to the previous year and the five-year average. Lebanese cereal imports increased by over 20 percent to meet increased demand by increased population. Lebanese exporters of horticultural products, fruits in particular, are experiencing difficulties due to the continuing conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic that disrupted land routes with the closure of the last border crossing between the Syrian Arab Republic and Jordan in March 2015. An alternative marine transportation is costlier but also unsuitable for a variety of highly perishable products. Some farmers near the border with the Syrian Arab Republic report that security concerns have prevented them from accessing their fields and orchards.

LINKS OF INTEREST:

-‐ Lebanon Crisis Response Plan 2015 -‐2016: http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/20151223_LCRP_ENG_22Dec2015-‐full%20version%29_s.pdf

-‐ Overview of Food Security Situation in Lebanon by RFSAN at http://www.fao.org/3/a-‐az721e.pdf


IPC Global Support Unit: [email protected] www.ipcinfo.org

LIBERIA



25 000 people

1% of the population are in CH Phase 3 (June 2016) and require urgent food, nutrition and livelihoods assistance

No population in CH Phase 4 for June–August 2016. The population in CH Phase 3 for both periods is mainly due to a lack in dietary consumption of essential nutrients from animal products, legumes, vegetables and fruits. Current humanitarian assistance needed: -‐ 7.7% are in CH Phase 2. -‐ 1% in CH Phase 3.

• The Ebola outbreak has now been largely controlled and the food situation has improved significantly as a result. • According to the Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis for the current period (March-‐May) about 5.5 percent are in CH Phase 2 ‘’Stressed’ and 0.53 percent in CH Phase 3 ‘Crisis’. For the projected period (June-‐August), 7.7 percent are in CH Phase 2 and about 1 percent in CH Phase 3. • There is no population in CH Phase 4 and CH Phase 5 for both periods. The population in CH Phase 3 for both periods is mainly due to a lack in dietary consumption of essential nutrients from animal products, legumes, vegetables and fruits. • Contrary to significant improvement in dietary conditions in Monrovia, very little development has happened in the rural areas where most households (79 percent) are poorer and highly dependent on food markets, which are often inaccessible during the rainy season or lean period. Household food expenditure is at nearly 60 percent on average and is extremely high compared to spending on education, health and other basic necessities combined. • Stunting or chronic malnutrition rates have fallen from an alarming 42 percent in 2010 to 32 percent overall in 2013 (LISGIS, 2013 DHS) which is still a serious public health concern. The reasons are numerous but clearly due to inadequate diet diversity, poor care and feeding practices, poor sanitation and illness. The situation is worrying because chronic malnutrition or stunting causes irreversible brain damage and prevents individuals from realizing their physical and intellectual potential, thus hampering economic development.



CONTEXT

Liberia is striving to increase food supply to mitigate the impact of the Ebola health crisis that adversely affected food production and rural livelihoods. The Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak resulted in a serious shock to the agriculture and food sectors. The epidemic started to spread when crops were being planted and expanded rapidly during the critical harvesting period for the staple crops rice and cassava. Various farming activities including crop maintenance (such as weeding, fencing and application of chemicals) and harvesting have been disrupted mostly through labour shortages. Aggregate food crop production in 2014 declined by 8 percent compared to the 2013 output. Rice production dropped by 12 percent, while cassava production declined by 5 percent. At the subnational level the impact is much more severe, such as in Lofa and Margibi counties, where losses of paddy crop are estimated as high as 25 percent. About 630 000 people, or 14 percent of the population, were estimated to be severely food insecure as of November 2014.


1. Economy recovers but remains below pre-‐crisis level Beyond its impact on the agriculture and food sector, the EVD outbreak seriously affected all other sectors of the economy. According to the Economic Intelligence Unit revised estimates, GDP growth is estimated at 0.9 percent in 2015, owing to the low output for Liberia's main exports and reduced harvests in 2014. A stronger rebound of 4.8 percent growth is forecast in 2016, well above the growth of only 0.5 percent achieved in 2014, but still well below the 6.8 percent forecasted before the Ebola crisis. The EVD outbreak had a substantial impact on employment activities throughout the country on all livelihood groups. In addition to the lingering impact of the EVD outbreak, major export sectors, particularly rubber and iron ore, are underperforming due to weak international market demand and falling prices, which in turn has reduced economic growth, government revenues, and incomes for workers employed in these sectors. Rubber production, for example, is an important livelihood activity for many poor households in Bomi, Montserrado, Margibi, and far eastern Bong counties. However, international prices for this commodity are currently down by around 24 percent compared to prices at the same time last year and are approximately 65 percent less than the five-‐year average. As the economy continues to recover, household livelihoods and incomes will continue to return to the levels observed prior to the Ebola crisis.

2. Food markets recovered significantly and prices of imported rice generally stable Liberia relies heavily on imported food with a cereal import dependency ratio of over 60 percent. During the peak of the EVD outbreak, border closures, quarantine measures and other restrictions have seriously disrupted marketing of goods, including agricultural commodities. There has been a significant recovery of marketing activities. Due to adequate supplies, prices of imported rice have remained mostly stable in recent months.

3. Food consumption and availability All areas of Liberia are expected to remain in “Minimal” (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity due to adequate incomes and food sources. Most of the households will still be able to consume a normal diet as they increase their consumption of cassava (ex. tubers, fufu, gari) and wild foods (ex. bush yams, snails). Additionally, the start of rice harvests in the southeastern counties by August and September will improve local rice availability at the household level by the end of September 2016. Off-‐season harvests, coupled with the good rice stocks from the recent 2015/16 main season harvest and imports, will ensure adequate food availability until September 2016. As the economy continues to strengthen, household livelihoods and incomes are returning to levels seen before the Ebola crisis, which in turn is improving food access.


MALI FOOD SECURITY UPDATE


423 000 people

2% of the population are in CH Phase 3 (June 2016) and require urgent food, nutrition and livelihoods assistance

Urgent humanitarian assistance needed: in the worst scenario, between July and August 2016, it is estimated that 423 246 people will be severely food-‐insecure (CH Phase 3).

• The disruptions caused by the recent civil strife have had an adverse and long-‐term impact on household assets and savings, notably in the northern part of the country. As a result, several segments of the population still need food and non-‐food assistance to restore their livelihoods and to improve their access to food. However, most of the country will likely maintain Cadre Harmonisé (CH) Phase 1 “Minimal” acute food insecurity between now and September 2016.

• Chronic food insecurity is prevalent: 17 percent of households in Mali are moderately to severely food-‐insecure. Poor households in the lake area of Goundam are facing a drop in cereal production and a reduction in income-‐earning opportunities due to insecurity. As a result, they will experience “Stressed” (CH Phase 2) acute food security.

• Livestock deaths and high livestock sales over the past two years have reduced assets of many poor pastoral households in the Gourma area of Timbuktu and Gao in the Northern Livestock livelihood zone, reducing income and purchasing capacity.

• Approximately 500 000 people who were previously displaced people, in addition to 15 000 people impacted by floods between July and September 2015, will need to rebuild their livelihoods and will not be able to meet both their food and non-‐food needs.



CONTEXT

The escalation of armed conflict in the northern part of the country in early April 2012 dramatically altered the overall security situation, resulting in large population displacements. According to UNHCR, as of December 2012, over 200 000 people have been internally displaced, while an additional 230 000 people were forced to flee to neighboring Mauritania, Burkina Faso and Niger. The agriculture sector has been seriously damaged by the civil strife. Labour shortages due to population displacements, lack of agricultural support services in the northern half, fragmentation of the markets and other difficulties related to civil security have had a serious negative impact on agricultural production and food markets. Despite a peace agreement signed in June 2015, insecurity, characterized by clashes between armed groups and terrorist activities, continues to affect people living in most of northern Mali. According to OCHA, as of June 2016, there are still an estimated 37 000 internally-‐displaced people in Mali predominantly residing in Timbuktu, the most affected region


1. Agricultural production and market situation

A record cereal output was gathered in 2015 following beneficial rains from July over the main producing areas of the country. The 2015 aggregate cereals production was more than 8 million tonnes, about 15 percent higher than the 2014 bumper crop and 27 percent above the average of the previous five years. Production of millet, the most important staple, increased by 17 percent, while rice production increased by 13 percent to about 2.4 million tonnes. Pastoral conditions were also satisfactory. The filling levels of most water points were adequate and animals remained in good condition. As a result, coarse grain prices have remained mostly stable in recent months in most parts of the country, while livestock prices were above average and expected to remain high due to good conditions as well as the relatively strong demand from neighbouring countries. The average to above-‐average cereal production is supporting adequate household food stocks, providing typical levels of income from agricultural labour, supplying markets, and supporting near-‐average prices. Most households across the country will experience “Minimal” (CH Phase 1) acute food insecurity. Good livestock conditions and above-‐average prices have improved milk availability and favourable livestock-‐to-‐cereal terms of trade for households. Thus, most agropastoral households are expected to continue to experience “Minimal” (CH Phase 1) food insecurity. However, poor households in the lake area of Goundam who depleted their stock and poor pastoral households in Timbuktu and Gao who have below-‐average herd sizes, are engaging in migration, borrowing, reducing non-‐food spending, purchasing cheaper substitute foods, and selling household assets as coping mechanisms to meet their food needs. Poor households in these populations are expected to remain “Stressed” (CH Phase 2) until September, at which point the availability of early crops and wild foods will bring the lean season to an end.

2. Flood-‐affected areas

An estimated 15 000 people from flood-‐affected households, who suffered from crop and asset losses, will have difficulty adequately meeting their food needs and are expected to resort to atypical coping strategies. This will also be the case for returnees who will be trying to rebuild their livelihoods. These households are likely to be “Stressed” (CH Phase 2) between February and September 2016.


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CONTEXT

Since 1991, Somalia has faced armed conflict of one form or another. For over two decades the country has been without a functional central government in a complex political, security and development environment. Much of its recent past has been marked by poverty, famine, and recurring violence. In south central Somalia, clan-‐based militia competing for control over resources and engaging in looting and other forms of criminal activities led to a catastrophic famine from 1992 to 1993.

During the Gu (Somalia’s main rainy season) in 2010, 27 percent of the population was in IPC Phase 3 and 4, while in July 2011 the numbers doubled to 54 percent of the total population due to famine conditions that lead to a quarter of a million deaths and displacements.

According to the seasonal assessment by FSNAU and FEWS NET, Somalia was expected to face large-‐scale food insecurity between February and June 2016 as a result of poor rainfall and drought conditions in several areas, trade disruption, and a combination of protracted and new population displacement, all of which was exacerbated by chronic poverty. Acute malnutrition remains high in many parts of the country, linked to lack of access to health facilities, lack of humanitarian access in many areas due to insecurity, and poor infrastructure. According to UNHCR, between March and May 2016, about 192 000 people were internally displaced within Somalia. The major reasons for displacement include floods (35 percent), insecurity arising from military offensive (31 percent) and evictions (15 percent).


1. Conflict and population displacement IDPs represent 68 percent of the total number of people in “Crisis” and “Emergency”. This is likely to increase due to floods and insecurity observed in the region. Additionally the closure of Kenya’s Dadaab Refugee Camp is foreseen to increase the influx of refugees.

2. Climate conditions Climate continues to play a determinant role in shaping food security patterns throughout rural Somalia in both positive and negative ways. Despite a strong global El Niño, the anticipated heavier-‐than -‐normal rains and consequent riverine and flash floods in central and southern Somalia did not materialize during the 2015 Deyr season. Riverine flooding during the season has been moderate (Middle Shabelle, Juba and Gedo regions), although it still caused damage to some standing crops and agricultural lands. Below-‐normal rainfall and drought conditions prevailed in large portions of northwest and northeast Somalia leading to large-‐scale abnormal outmigration of livestock, rising water prices and sharp increase in debt levels among poor households.

3. Poverty Chronic and widespread poverty has contributed to household vulnerability and low resilience to shocks in the country. Some 73 percent of the population are poor. More than one million people remain displaced in often appalling conditions and more than one million people are refugees in the region. Extreme poverty and lack of employment opportunities leave many young Somalis with few prospects for the future. The unemployment rate for youth in Somalia is 67 percent —one of the highest in the world.

4. Trade and market disruptions Trade interferences caused by insurgents have resulted in reduced availability and access to food in the affected towns and led to the deterioration of food security conditions over the past two years.


The above information and data are based on the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) food security analysis conducted by the Food Security & Analysis Unit of FAO, available at: ( http://fsnau.org/products/technical-‐series/archives).

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CONTEXT

South Sudan is structurally import dependent and, on average, it annually imports about 250 000 tonnes of cereals from Uganda, Sudan and Kenya. Despite a marginal increase in the national cereal production in 2015 compared to the last five-‐year average, the aggregate cereal deficit for 2016 is estimated at 381 000 tonnes, higher than the 2015 deficit by over 100 000 tonnes. Physical insecurity in the former Western Equatoria State and prolonged dry spells in the former Eastern Equatoria State affected agricultural activities and production in these normally cereal surplus states. During the first quarter of 2016, cereal import reduced to 20 percent of the volume imported during the same period in 2015 due to the challenging environment characterized by a rapidly devaluing local currency, high informal taxes, limited access to hard currency, declining consumer purchasing power and deteriorating terms of trade between livestock and labour to cereals.


1. Conflict and socio-‐economic impact

The protracted conflict generated a food security crisis of enormous scale. Rising food insecurity is mostly a result of the deepening economic crisis, insecurity, and depleted food stocks from insufficient household production. The most affected populations are internally displaced persons (IDPs) and the poor households who are worst hit by the economic crisis, high market prices, as well as conflict-‐related market and trade disruptions. The closure of the Sudan/South Sudan border is constraining food imports, with consequent low supply and high prices in local markets.

High levels of acute malnutrition are driven not only by high food insecurity but also sub-‐optimal child feeding practices and poor water, sanitation and hygiene. Despite the diminished intensity of the armed violence and increased humanitarian access in the most affected areas, the conflict spread to new areas that were previously stable, causing further displacement and damage to livelihoods.

2. The current economic crisis

With declining purchasing power of households and rising prices due to the sharp devaluation of the local currency and high transport costs, food security conditions have dramatically deteriorated, especially in the highly market-‐dependent former Northern and Western Bahr el Ghazal states.

3. Lean Season impact

In May-‐July, which coincides with the lean season, food and nutrition insecurity is expected to further deteriorate while access to services and delivery of supplies is hampered by the rain and poor infrastructure. Although famine is not declared at this time, either at state or county Level, the risk of famine is still looming in parts of Unity State (Leer, Mayendit and Koch) where conflict and other factors can quickly and dramatically escalate. The terms of trade for livestock or labour to cereal, indicators for economic access to food for non-‐farming households and pastoralists, have fallen significantly compared to the same period last year, as cereal prices grew faster than livestock prices and labour wages.

CONTACT WFP VAM : [email protected] www.vam.wfp.org IPC Global Support Unit: [email protected] www.ipcinfo.org

The above information and data are based on the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) food security analysis conducted by the IPC South Sudan Technical Working Group, available at: http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-‐detail-‐forms/ipcinfo-‐map-‐detail/en/c/418649/

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CONTEXT

The total cereal production in 2015 was estimated at 3.4 million tonnes, about 55 percent below the record output obtained in 2014 and 23 percent below the last five-year average. The 2015 rainy season, strongly affected by the El Niño meteorological phenomenon, was very poor especially in key cropping areas of Gadarif, Sennar and Kassala states as well as in parts of North Kordofan, North Darfur and East Darfur states, with a late onset, below-‐average amounts and frequent dry spells. The rainfed sector, both semi-mechanized and traditional, registered the major declines in cereal production, while production from the irrigated sector was similar to the five-year average.

The unfavourable rains in 2015 also had a significant negative impact on pasture and water availability. The areas most affected include Kassala, North Kordofan, White Nile and Red Sea states as well as North, Central and South Darfur states. Abnormal early livestock migrations have been reported in search of better grazing resources, with large concentration of animals in limited areas with negative impact on natural resources and increasing risks of disease outbreaks. Sales of livestock increased during the first semester of 2016 as herders decided to reduce their herd size in view of quickly deteriorating conditions of grazing resources until the onset of the new rainy season in June.

Renewed conflicts since early 2016 in parts of South Kordofan, Blue Nile and Darfur States have displaced over 215 000 people, with severe consequences on their livelihoods and food security conditions.


1. Protracted and new sporadic insecurity and civil conflicts, including conflict related to competition for natural resources between farmers and pastoralists.

2. High food prices in most markets as a results of poor food production but also due to macroeconomic factors — the significant reduction in South Sudan oil production, a major foreign currency earner for Sudan — which has led to dwindling national foreign currency reserves.

3. Low availability and quality of pasture and water due to drought in most pastoral areas. 4. Shortage in drinking water. 5. Increasing number of IDPs and refugees from South Sudan who have fled both due to conflict and food insecurity.


The above information and data are based on the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) food security analysis conducted by the IPC Sudan Technical Working Group, available at: (http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-‐detail-‐forms/ipcinfo-‐map-‐detail/en/c/422497/).

SYRIA


1 http://data.un.org/CountryProfile.aspx?crName=Syrian%20Arab%20Republic referring to the 22 million population pre-‐conflict


8.7 million people

37% of the pre-‐conflict1 population (October 2015) require urgent food, nutrition and livelihoods assistance

• 6.3 million people — one in three Syrians –– are food insecure. • 2.4 million people are at high risk of food insecurity. • More than 400 000 people live in besieged areas with worrying

degrees of food insecurity.

Urgent humanitarian assistance needed: -‐ 8.7 million require assistance

• Food insecurity in Syria has sharply deteriorated since the beginning of the conflict. Some 8.7 million people need some form of food assistance, of which 6.3 million people (32.8 percent) do not have adequate access to food.

• There are 4.5 million people in hard-‐to-‐reach areas, including more than 400 000 in besieged areas, who do not have access to the life-‐saving aid that they urgently need. Internally displaced persons (IDPs) and returnees without sustainable livelihood strategies are among the most food insecure groups.

• The critical areas are in Aleppo, rural Damascus, Al-‐Hassakeh, Hama and Dar’a governorates where more than 40 percent of people are food insecure. Under siege, the entire Deir-‐ez-‐Zor city is food insecure and food assistance has become the main source of food for the majority of households.

• The main factors contributing to the severe situation are the compounding impacts of the escalated conflict and insecurity, which have resulted in decreased agricultural and food production, and dwindling employment and income opportunities. This, combined with high inflation and exchange rate fluctuations, has adversely affected the purchasing power of poor households, thereby limiting their financial access to food.

FOOD INSECURITY SITUATION Current Food Insecurity Situation: Food Security Assessment (October 2015)

CONTEXT

The security situation continues to underpin and aggravate various other factors contributing to food insecurity. Years of conflict have had a cumulative effect not just on the country’s economy, but on livelihoods and people’s coping capacity. Without a political solution to the conflict and adequate humanitarian assistance, household food security is expected to deteriorate. This presents a particularly high risk to more than half of Syria’s population who are marginally food secure and are likely to join the extremely high numbers of food insecure people.

One million people have already been displaced by the conflict in 2015 alone, many for the second or third time, according to the United Nations Emergency Relief Coordinator, while intensified airstrikes and escalation of conflict in Aleppo during 2016 further increased the number of IDPs.

Displacement is one of the major drivers of food insecurity due to IDPs losing their livelihoods and productive assets. Since 2011, some three million jobs have been lost and unemployment in early 2015 stood at 57 percent – up from 10 percent at the start of the conflict.


1. Conflict and socio-‐economic impacts

The food security situation in Syria has now reached worrying proportions, not only in terms of scale but also severity.

Food insecurity in Syria is characterized by a high degree of economic vulnerability and asset depletion. A typical food insecure household has significant food consumption gaps with extreme loss of livelihood assets.

Female-‐ and child-‐headed households, some of which are also IDPs, are the most vulnerable group. Many of these households have depended on remittances, which have become unpredictable. This has led to a high dependence on food assistance and alternative sources of income, including from friends and relations. The level of food assistance already provided – to a monthly average of 5.9 million people in 2015 in addition to agricultural-‐based livelihood support to over 1.5 million people – has helped to stabilize vulnerable people at the current food security level. Without that assistance, the overall picture is likely to have been much worse. Without it, many more people will slip into food insecurity. IDPs give rise to the greatest concern, because they are the most vulnerable and the most food insecure. More than 40 percent of IDPs and returnees are food insecure, compared to about 30 percent of host communities. Since 2011, some three million jobs have been lost and unemployment in early 2015 stood at 57 percent – up from 10 percent at the start of the conflict.

2. Impact on agriculture and markets

Being largely rainfed, cereal production varies from year to year. However, before the conflict (2007-‐2011), the country produced on average 3.4 million tonnes of wheat, and imported around 1.1 million tonnes. In 2015, some 2.4 million tonnes of wheat was harvested. In 2016, precipitation has been inconsistent across the country. The production outlook in the main growing area of Hassakeh in the east of the country is positive, while prospects in Aleppo, Idlib and Homs are below average. In addition to weather, the ongoing conflict and lack of inputs (such as improved seeds, fertilizers and fuel), damage to agricultural machinery, irrigation systems and storage facilities, together with disruptions in electricity supplies, continued to seriously hamper agricultural production. Increased production does not necessarily improve food security. Producers, transporters and traders are facing increasing transaction costs and security risks. Those, combined with the transportation bottlenecks, led to a build-up of cereals and increased wastage of fruits and vegetables in the production areas, while urban centres remain undersupplied.

Unemployment and rapidly rising inflation make food significantly less affordable, even when it is available. Nearly two-‐thirds of the country’s population live in extreme poverty and are unable to cover their basic needs, including food. Casual labour is the main income source for borderline households, but opportunities are increasingly scarce and IDPs and returnees have saturated labour markets. Conflict has effectively crippled labour markets by undermining overall economic activity and restricting labour mobility. This, in turn, reinforces conflict by raising the appeal of employment by armed groups.

Overall, households spend 55 percent of their income on food compared to 45-‐47 percent in 2011 and even less previously. People allocate more than two-‐thirds of their income to food in Dara’a, Sweida, Aleppo and Hama, where households are prioritizing food purchases over other basic needs.

Inflation surged in the first 10 months of 2015 (last available information), to over 35 percent, reflecting major cuts in price subsidies for fuel and foodstuffs. Localized supply shortages and the weakening currency are likely to put additional upward pressure on inflation resulting in a further deterioration of purchasing power and food security conditions of poor households.

In January 2015, the Government introduced price increases for subsidized items. On average, prices of bread increased by 40 percent, with a package of slightly over 1 kg selling for SYP 35 (USD 0.16), as of late March 2015 (latest information available). Prices of butane gas increased from SYP 1 100 to SYP 1 500 per litre, while the price of 1 litre of diesel for transportation purposes increased from SYP 85 to SYP 125 and for domestic household use from SYP 85 to SYP 140.


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CONTEXT Since the 2011 uprising, the population in Yemen has been affected by the impact of protracted civil insecurity and political instability, disrupted socio-‐economic conditions and livelihood opportunities. Continued insecurity and fighting between different factions affected the overall economic development and daily life of the people. The conflict is seriously disrupting livelihoods and income options in the country in a number of ways. The airstrikes and conflicts have damaged essential infrastructure both public and private including markets, roads, bridges, hospitals, schools, residential houses, power stations, plants, shops and water lines. The ongoing conflict has also caused a breakdown of trade and markets in many of the active conflict areas such as Taiz. As a result, many people lost their livelihoods and physical and economic access to food and other basic needs to live a decent life.


1. Conflict and socio-‐economic impact

About 51 percent of the population (14.12 million people) is under IPC Emergency and Crisis phases due to widespread conflict and insecurity, dwindling livelihood opportunities, disrupted market networks and inflation, which have affected the purchasing power of poor households and limited their economic access to food. The humanitarian conditions are expected to deteriorate in various parts of the country, especially in areas affected by multiple crises, unless there is a lasting solution to the conflict. The sporadic conflicts aggravated by the currency crisis have further destabilized the market system and increased the prices of staple food and other essential commodities. The blockage and restriction of the imports of fuel and goods contributed to the scarcity and high price of commodities in the local market. Restrictions to access the sea and blockage of exports have severely damaged the livelihoods and income of the fishermen in the coastal areas. Despite the recent ceasefire and ongoing political negotiations among the rival groups, there is still fighting between AQAP and government forces in the southern governorates and fighting in Taiz and sporadic fighting in many other governorates, which continued disrupting the normal life of the citizens.

2. Exchange rate and currency crisis

Due to the currency crisis and other socio-‐economic factors, the prices of cooking gas increased by over 76 percent and food prices increased up to 60 percent compared to the pre-‐crisis average, which has significantly affected the purchasing power of households across the 22 governorates. During 2015 and the first quarter of 2016, the exchange rate experienced sharp fluctuation and severe shocks more than three times. The continued decline of the Yemeni Riyal and increased inflation contributed to the price increase of goods and services, which weakens the real income and purchasing power of the employees.

3. Market situation and prices of commodities

The food security situation further deteriorated in highly affected governorates of the country due to conflict-‐induced scarcity of basic commodities and high prices of essential commodities coupled with diminishing income opportunities. Markets are partially functioning in more than half of the governorates in the country where prices of essential food and non-‐food commodities have escalated by over 40 percent compared to the pre-‐crisis levels. In April 2016, further deterioration of availability of basic food commodities were reported from several governorates mainly due to scarcity of fuel that affected transportation of goods and movements of traders. The level of food and fuel imports in March 2016 was the lowest since October 2015 and only satisfy 12 percent of the country fuel needs – estimated at 544 000 tonnes. Continued instability contributed to an increase in the cost of food imports and local commodity prices. Yemen imports approximately 90 percent of its staple food requirements mainly wheat, which makes wheat flour prices and household purchasing power an important driver of food insecurity.

4. Natural disaster – desert locusts, cyclones and floods • Desert locusts: The Desert Locust Monitoring and Control Centre at the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation survey

report supported by FAO indicates the summer breeding has been reported with high densities. New swarms could form in the interior in the coming weeks, with disastrous effects on the livelihoods of the population, natural resources and the ecosystem.

• Flash Floods: In April 2016, heavy rains resulted in flash floods, which inundated a number of districts in seven Governorates in Yemen – Al Hodeidah, Amran, Hajjah, Sana'a, Al Mahweet, Aden, and Mareb. The floods led to significant losses and damage in terms of livelihood assets, such as crops, livestock, agricultural inputs and water infrastructure.

5. Civil insecurity and displacement

The conflict has led to massive internal population displacement and out-‐migration, with the situation continuing to deteriorate. More than 2.75 million individuals are displaced since March 2015 according to the Task Force on Population Movement – 8th report (April 2016). Around 83 percent of the IDPs fled their villages and are now living with their relatives and/or friends, increasing the burden on the host community. The majority of the IDPs are believed to have lost their livelihood assets during displacement with no opportunity for employment and income, which severely compromised their economic access to food. The food security and nutrition status of the IDPs are very poor compared to the non-‐IDPs. Food security and nutrition continues to deteriorate for IDP households due to poor access to basic services, malfunctioning economic system and weak institutions combined with another wave of violence and instability.

CONTACT WFP VAM: [email protected] http://vam.wfp.org/

IPC Global Support Unit: [email protected] www.ipcinfo.org The above information and data are based on the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) food security analysis conducted by the IPC Yemen Technical Working Group, available at: (http://www.ipcinfo.org/ipcinfo-‐detail-‐forms/ipcinfo-‐map-‐detail/en/c/418608/).

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