Monitoring energy/carbon savings is crucial. Why?

Rudy Rooth, KEMA

Low Carbon Communities ConferenceLondon, 13 July 2011

Presentation outline

The need for monitoring Monitoring and energy efficiency

Examples Dutch energy performance of buildings

standards (EPC) versus actual energy consumption

District heat project in CONCERTO

Conclusions

The need for monitoring

"If you can measure that of which you speak and can express it by a  number, you know something of your subject; but if you cannot measure  it, your knowledge is meager and unsatisfactory." ~Lord Kelvin

No results to show will results in unwillingness to invest.

European reliance on energy efficiency

The need for monitoring

It forces one to establish a baseline and a protocol of measurement

Essential elements based on International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol (IPMVP) Solid statistical sampling Advanced engineering models Empirical measurements of real

activities

The need for monitoring (approaches)

Bottom-up: Good for the evaluation of specific project/program achievements, but expensive

Top-down: Inexpensive, but does not give answer on the root cause of improvements

Affordability of monitoring is crucial

The need for monitoring (three issues to solve)

Clear Energy Efficiency Goals Measurement Methodology Evaluation Definitions

See also: Measurement is critical to understanding, Palenc 2010, J.L. Stoops, R.A. Rooth

Example 1 Energy performance standard versus actual energy consumption

Evolution of annual natural gas consumption per dwelling in The Netherlands (heating and DHW)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1 1,2 1,4 1,6

EPC value

Natu

ral g

as c

onsu

mpt

ion

per d

wel

ling

Gas consumption nominal [m3] Gas consumption real [m3]Linear (Gas consumption nominal [m3]) Linear (Gas consumption real [m3])

Reasons:- Average house size increased from 165 m2 to 198 m2. (+ 20%)- Increased use of DHW

Other effects:Amount of inhabitants per dwelling decreased by 5% (total housing stock)therefore 5% more dwellings (and energy consumption) for the same population

Example 2: New neighbour- hood with district heating

Zuidbroek

Example 2: Dwellings connected to DH

Dwellings in Zuidbroek

20

323

514

607

880928

20

303

191

93

273

48

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Year

dw

ellin

gs

bu

ilt

total dwellings

dwellings delivered

Example 2: Monitoring Results

17000 GJ heat annually, enough for 530 dwellings?)

Example 2: Heat demand dwellings

Annual heat consumption

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Every dot is one building

GJ

per

year

Houses with currently known gross floor area

173

168 181

165

181 179 202

243

Average is 32 GJ/(dwelling*year)

Equals about 1000 m3 natural gas

Example 2: District heating results raw data

Example 2: District heating summary 2010

30% more natural gas consumption than reference situation with high efficiency boilers in every house

Reasons: 51% heat loss because of start-up phase heating

grid (<25% expected when complete) Biofuel peak boiler not yet in place (2.5 MW

expected by end of 2011 Average 550 kW instead of 1 MW of biogas

related heat

Example 2: expected end situation

Energy consumption and production Zuidbroek

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

En

erg

y in

GJ

Energy consumption dwellings Zuidbroek Biogas contribution max

Woodchips boiler contribution max Energy production

Eprimair fossil

Based on 2010 profile

1 MWth biogas, 2,5 MWth woodchips, 2500 dwellings, 25% losses

Example 2: Expected end situation summary and conclusions

Summary: More than 20% better EPC for 2500 dwellings

Conclusions for this example: Building crisis delayed reaching of expected

situation Heat losses become a more and more important

issue for modern housing districts Dutch approach of having green heat affecting

the EPC results in a situation where the number of dwellings connected affects the registered performance

Conclusions

The two examples prove the need for monitoring as a means to redirect developments and testing of assumptions

Experience shows that ease of access to data should be improved, while respecting privacy issues

Better regulation of data access could dramatically reduce cost of bottom-up approach monitoring and therefore acceleration of the learning curve

Without more attention to monitoring, the EU will probably not reach its energy efficiency goals.