Monitoring and modeling agricultural drought for …...Famine Early Warning Systems Network ·...

U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

AGU Fall Meeting

December 14, 2009 – San Francisco

Monitoring and modeling agricultural drought for famine early warning

James VerdinChris Funk, Michael Budde, Ronald Lietzow, Gabriel Senay, Ronald Smith, Diego Pedreros 1

James Rowland, Guleid Artan 2

Greg Husak, Joel Michaelsen, Alkhalil Adoum, Gideon Galu, Tamuka Magadzire, Mario Rodriguez 3

1. U.S. Geological Survey, EROS Center, Sioux Falls, South Dakota 2. ARTS, USGS EROS, Sioux Falls, South Dakota3. University of California, Santa Barbara

AGU Fall Meeting


Famine Early Warning Systems Network

An activity of the Office of Food for Peace at USAID, which directly supports its goal:

“to ensure that appropriate… emergency food aid is provided to the right people in the right places at the right time and in the right way”

FEWS NET is a food securitydecision support system

with embedded climate services

AGU Fall Meeting


Famine Early Warning Systems Network· FEWS NET identifies the times and places

that aid is need by the most food insecure populations of the developing world

· The activity has been continuous since 1985· The Office of Food for Peace distributed

$2.8 B in aid in 2008

AGU Fall Meeting


U.S. Agency for International Development

FEWS NET Implementing Partners

Prime contractor (Chemonics International)

U.S. Geological Survey + UCSB Geography

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

USDA Foreign Agricultural Service

AGU Fall Meeting



· Livelihood systems are based on subsistence agriculture and/or pastoralism, and are highly climate-sensitive

· Conventional climate station networks are sparse and/or late reporting

· Satellite remote sensing and atmospheric models fill the gap, and provide the basis for early detection of agricultural drought

AGU Fall Meeting



· Rainfall, vegetation, snow pack, ET are monitored for rangelands, rain fed crops, and irrigated crops

· A convergence of evidence approach is used

· As new satellite sensors and models have become available, there has been continuous improvement in remote monitoring of agricultural drought

AGU Fall Meeting


Time Series Vegetation Index Imageryfrom NASAsince 1985

AGU Fall Meeting


NDVI time series for growing seasons 1999/00 (good) 2000/01 (about average)2001/02 (poor) and the historical mean

Seasonal Vegetation Index by Crop Zone

AGU Fall Meeting


Time Series Rainfall Grids

· Use of NOAA satellite RFE since mid-1990s

· A blend of TIR, MW, and station observations

· Used to force crop water balance models

AGU Fall Meeting


WRSI = f (ppt, pet, WHC, Crop Type, SOS, EOS, LGP)

RFE(NOAA)

calculated fromNOAA GDASat EROS

FAO soils mapof the world Kc (FAO)

Water Requirement Satisfaction Index

AGU Fall Meeting


Mapping Agricultural Drought

WRSI Soil Water Index

AGU Fall Meeting


Thank you!

MODIS Snow Covered Area

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Modeling Snow Water Equivalent

AGU Fall Meeting


Thank you!

Basin Seasonal Snow Water Volume

AGU Fall Meeting


Energy Balance Estimates of Crop ET

AGU Fall Meeting


MODIS NDVI

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Production estimation - Zimbabwe

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2003

2008

Afghanistan Drought Impact on 2008 HarvestMaximum NDVI 2003 vs. 2008 for rain fed and irrigated crops

AGU Fall Meeting


FEWS NET Remote Monitoring· FEWS NET has evolved a diverse suite of

monitoring products in an incremental, piecemeal fashion· Favorable for a robust convergence of evidence· Unfavorable if the independent methods produce

physically incompatible explanations of observed conditions

· Food crisis of 2008 has prompted expansion of remote monitoring

· New technology presents the opportunity for improved use of available data -> LDAS

AGU Fall Meeting


Timor LesteA

B

New FEWS NET Operational Priority Countries

Red – Current countries

Yellow – Weather/agricultural outcomes AND availability/access monitoring

Green – Weather/agricultural outcomes

C

Current monitoring domains: A, B, C

Remote Monitoring System - Expanded Coverage

P

N

S

E

AG GEO DATA

1. Admin Units

2. Rangelands

3. Principal crops

• Growing areas

• Crop calendars

• Rain fed?

• Irrigated?

4. Snow pack

• Catchments

• Rivers

• Growing areas

Geoserver Database

Decision Support Interface

Interactive Analysis

Tool

Early Warning Explorer

Topography,Soils

Land Cover, Vegetation Properties

Meteorological Forecasts,

Analyses, and/or Observations

Snow Soil MoistureTemperature

Land Surface Models(CLM, Noah, VIC, etc)

Data Assimilation Modules

Soil Moisture &

Temperature

EvaporationSensible Heat

Flux

Runoff

SnowpackProperties

Inputs OutputsPhysics Applications

A LIS Instance for FEWS NET

Weather

Climate

Water Resources

Agriculture

Drought

Natural Hazards

AGU Fall Meeting


Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP)

Mission

• Soil Moisture on Earth Grid at 10 km with 24 hr latency• Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture on Earth Grid at 10 km with 7 day latency• Launch scheduled in 2013-2014 time frame

AGU Fall Meeting


Thank you

Monitoring and modeling agricultural drought for …...Famine Early Warning Systems Network ·...

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