Monitoring and Early Warning in Tajikistan -...

Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of Tajikistan

Publication of this report from August 2014 is made possible by the support of the United States Agency for International

Development (USAID) and MEWS Working Group. The contents are the sole responsibility of the MEDT of RT and FAST

Program, which do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government.

MONTHLY REPORT MARCH 2015

Monitoring and Early Warning in Tajikistan

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Tajikistan Monitoring and Early Warning Report - March 2015

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GENERAL TRENDS

NATURAL HAZARDS

In March 2015, according to long-term observations, there is a risk of an emergency caused by snowfall,

frost, rain, rock falls, avalanches, landslides, and possible mudflows and floods.

WEATHER

Temperatures in March 2015 will be within the norm and in some places 10С below the climatic norm

throughout the country. Monthly precipitation is expected to be within the norm throughout the country.

ENERGY SECURITY

Electricity generation in February 2015 increased by 5.2 percent compared to January 2015. The water level

in the Nurek reservoir in February 2015 was 9.32 meters lower than in January 2015 and 5.72 meters higher

compared to the same period of the last year. On February 27 the limit on electricity consumption was

completely abolished in all regions of the country.

FOOD SECURITY

In March regional food availability will remain good due to the local wheat harvest and imports from

Kazakhstan. Wheat grain and wheat flour prices will remain stable in Tajikistan.

HEALTH

The risk of acute respiratory viral infections, including the flu, decreases with the beginning of spring.

MIGRATION

In February, the number of labor migrants was 37,644 people, which is 17.1% less compared to January.

The reduction in labor migration is due to the new regulations for entrance into the Russian Federation on

International Passports from January 1, 2015, and amendments in the existing Russian Federation legislation

on the activities of labor migrants from foreign countries.

ECONOMY

The GDP totaled 2,636 million TJS (493.6 million USD) for January 2015. Industrial production increased by

3.2 percent compared to the same period in 2014. Consumer price inflation was 0.6 percent compared to

December 2014. The total balance of bank credits was 9.9 billion TJS (1,853.9 million USD) for February

2015. The volume of loans granted by banks amounted to 817.8 million TJS (153.1 million USD). In January

2015 foreign trade turnover was equal to 344.8 million USD, 12.6 percent less than in the same period in

2014. Exports totaled 93.6 million USD, and imports totaled 251 million USD.

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Содержание

1. NATURAL HAZARDS .................................................................................................................. 4

1.1. Possible natural disasters in March 2015 ............................................................................ 4

1.2 Natural disasters in February 2015 ............................................................................................ 5

2. WEATHER CONDITIONS1 ......................................................................................................... 5

2.1. Forecast for March 2015. ..................................................................................................... 5

2.2. Weather summary for February 2015 .................................................................................. 5

3. ENERGY ...................................................................................................................................... 6

3.1. Electricity Generation ........................................................................................................... 6

3.2. Electricity Consumption ....................................................................................................... 7

3.3. Natural and liquefied gas ..................................................................................................... 7

3.4. Coal ...................................................................................................................................... 8

3.5. Water Level in the Nurek Hydropower Plant ........................................................................ 8

4. FOOD SECURITY ....................................................................................................................... 9

4.1. Food Security Reports ......................................................................................................... 9

4.2. Wheat Flour Prices ............................................................................................................ 11

4.3. Fuel Prices ......................................................................................................................... 12

5. HEALTH ..................................................................................................................................... 13

6. ECONOMIC TRENDS ............................................................................................................... 14

6.1. General trends ................................................................................................................... 14

6.2. Labor Migration of Population ............................................................................................ 16

6.3. Employment ....................................................................................................................... 17

6.4. Exchange Rate .................................................................................................................. 17

Annex A - Weather forecast for March 2015 ................................................................................. 19

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1. NATURAL HAZARDS

1.1. Possible natural disasters in March 2015

According to the Information Management and Analytical Center (IMAC) of the

Committee on Emergency Situations and Civil Defense under the Government of the

Republic of Tajikistan (CoES and CD), and according to long-term observations, there is a

risk of an emergency caused by snowfall, frost, rain, avalanches and landslides in March

2015. Mudflows and floods are also possible. River levels will rise sharply. There is a

possibility of floods on the Yokhsu, Kyzylsu and Kofarnihon Rivers. The possibility of

flooding will increase in the case of rainfall or sudden temperature increases.

Table 1. Historical data on Natural disasters in March

2000-2014.

Causes of Natural disasters

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Total

Wind 4 7 5 1 2 1 20

Flood 1 1 1 1 4

Rain 1 1 2 1 3 1 3 2 14

Earthquake 1 2 1 1 7 1 2 1 16

Landslide, rockfall 1 1 1 1 1 4 2 1 1 13

Avalanche 3 11 3 14 5 4 4 2 1 7 1 55

Underflood 1 2 1 4

Snowfall, frost 2 2 1 10 1 1 4 1 2 7 2 33

Mudflow 1 1

Total 2 13 13 20 6 27 12 15 12 6 11 2 17 4 0 160

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1.2 Natural disasters in February 2015

IMAC/CoES reported that in February 2015 there were 7 cases of natural disasters,

including 3 avalanches, 2 rock falls, one earthquake and one landslide. For more detailed

and recent information on the review of natural disasters in February 2015 contact the

MEWS Working Group at: [email protected].

2. WEATHER CONDITIONS1 1

2.1. Forecast for March 2015.

According to the Tajik Hydrometeorology Center,

the average monthly temperature in March 2015

will be within the norm and in some places 10С

below the climatic norm throughout the country.

Monthly precipitation is expected to be within the

norm throughout the country (See Annex A for a

more detailed forecast for March 2015.)

2.2. Weather summary for February 2015

In February the weather was warm with frequent

rainfall in Tajikistan. The average monthly temperature throughout the country was 2-40C

above the long-term averages. The temperature was:

at lower elevations, from 70С to 90С;

in the foothill areas, from 20С to 50С;

at higher elevations, from -50С to 10С;

in the highlands, from - 90С to -120С.

The warmest air temperatures were observed during February 4-6, 8-11, 14-15, 17-20 and

22, when the temperature in the lower elevations of DRD rose up to 15-200C in the

afternoon and up to 230C in the South. In the lower elevations of Sughd Province, the

temperature was 10-150C in the afternoon. The average daily temperature was 5-70C

above the long-term averages.

1 Information in Sections 2.1, 2.2 and Annex A is based on the reports of the State Hydrometeorology Agency

of Tajikistan.

Table 2. The average expected precipitation – March 2015

Regions Precipitation

Khatlon Province

Lower elevations

43-148 mm

Foothills 169-233 mm

Sughd Province

Lower elevations

25-54 mm

Higher elevations

25-47 mm

DRD

Lower elevations

42-148mm

Higher elevations

62-160 mm

GBAO West 17-76 mm

East 5- 23 mm

mailto:[email protected]

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The lowest air temperatures were observed during February 24-25, when the temperature

in the lower elevations dropped by 10-120C and was from 0 to -30С at night and from 1 to

30С in the afternoon. The average daily temperature was 5-70C below the long-term

averages.

Precipitation of varying intensity fell for about 10-17 days

in the lower elevations and foothills, and for 14-19 days

in mountainous and highland areas.

Monthly precipitation in most areas was above the norm

with the exception of East of GBAO (see Table 3.)

3. ENERGY

3.1. Electricity Generation2

According to the information of OJHC “Barqi Tojik,” total electricity generation in February

2015 was 1,417 million kilowatt-hours (kW/h), or 50.6 million kW/h per day. Electricity

generation in February 2015 increased by 5.2 percent (48.1 million kW/h) compared to

January 2015.

Electricity generation in February 2015 was 105.6 million kW/h more than in the same

period of the last year. This is due to the commissioning of the first unit of the "Dushanbe-

2" thermal power and the second unit of “Sangtuda-2” HPP in the past year (see Section

3.5 below.)

For more detailed information on electricity generation contact the MEWS Center at:

[email protected] ).

Total Electricity Generation – January 2011 – February 2015 (million kW/h)

2 Data on electricity generation and consumption is provided by the Monitoring and Early Warning System

(MEWS) Expert from Barqi Tojik.

Table 3. Monthly Precipitation

Regions Less than

norm %


Regions Less than

norm %


Regions Less than

norm %

Sughd Province 186-250%

Khatlon Province 92-164%

DRD 110-147%

Western GBAO 226-254%

Eastern GBAO 11-98%


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3.2. Electricity Consumption

The following table shows the average daily electricity consumption by major regions of

Tajikistan and by the Tajik Aluminum Company (TALCO), the largest commercial consumer

of electricity. In February 2015 electricity consumption reached 1360 million kW/h, 5.4

percent less in comparison with January 2015. In February 2015 electricity consumption

was 102.7 million kW/h more compared to the same period of the last year.

According to the Decree of the Tajikistan President, since February 27 the limit on

electricity consumption has been completely abolished in all regions of the country. Last

year, the limit on electricity was abolished as of March 19, 2014. The early removal of

restrictions was due to relatively high levels of water in Nurek reservoir, high flowage of

the Vakhsh River and with increasing electricity production compared to the last year. For

more detailed information on electricity consumption contact the MEWS Center at:

([email protected].)

Average Daily Electricity Consumption – January 2011 – February 2015 (million kWh)

3.3. Natural and liquefied gas

The supply of natural gas to the Republic of Tajikistan was suspended in connection with

completion of the contract with the Republic of Uzbekistan in December 2012.

Tajikistan receives deliveries of liquefied gas by road and rail. According to the operational

data of the Ministry of Energy and Water Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan,

enterprises registered with the Ministry imported 52,682.8 tons of liquefied gas for

January-February 2015, mostly from the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Republic of

Turkmenistan and the Russian Federation. Imports amounted to 14,971.6 tons more than

for the same period of the last year. Liquefied gas’s imports amounted to 25,154.5 tons in

February 2015, 6,515.4 tons more in comparison with the same period of last the year.

More than 60 percent of the country's motor vehicles use liquefied gas as fuel.


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3.4. Coal

According to the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of RT, 30,426 tons of coal was

produced in February 2015, which is 8,618 tons more than in January 2015. 52,234.0 tons

of coal was produced in January-February 2015 in Tajikistan, which is 6,883.0 tons or

15.2% more than in the same period of the last year. Coal production has increased due

to the commissioning of the first unit of the “Dushanbe-2” thermal power plant and a shift

in the country’s industrial enterprises from more expensive natural gas and electricity to

more economical coal for heating and other needs (e.g., for processing coal into gas for

TALCO activities).

3.5. Water Level in the Nurek Hydropower Plant3

The Water Volume – Nurek HPP chart below shows the volume of water in the Nurek

Hydropower Plant (HPP) reservoir at the end of February 2015 compared to the average

volume over the last ten years (2004 to 2014). At the end of February 2015, the water

level in the Nurek HPP reservoir was 878.91 meters above sea level, which is 9.32 meters

lower than in January 2015, 5.72 meters higher than in the same period of the previous

year, and 21.91 meters above the “dead level” (inactive storage) (857 meters). In February

2015, average monthly inflow from the Vakhsh River was 208 m3/sec, 37.7 percent more

compared to the same period of last year.

Water Volume – Nurek HPP (million m3)

The Water Inflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir chart below shows water inflow into the Nurek

HPP. At the end of February 2015, the water inflow was 227 m3/sec, which is 84.5 m3/sec

above the average of 142.5 m3/sec for 2004-2014.

3 Data obtained from OJHC “Barqi Tojik”

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Water Inflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir (m3/sec)

As indicated in the Water Outflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir chart below, the average water

discharge from the Nurek HPP reservoir at the end of February 2015 amounted to 585

m3/sec, which is higher than the 10-year-old average of 489.4 m3/sec.

Water Outflow – Nurek HPP Reservoir (m3/sec)

4. FOOD SECURITY

4.1. Food Security Reports

According to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of RT, the most important

imported food products are grain and flour. In January 2015, 58.5 thousand tons of grain

at an average price of 298 USD per ton and 11.2 thousand tons of flour at an average price

of 411 USD per ton were imported into the Republic, which is 21.5 percent less grain and

35.6 percent less flour compared to January of the previous year.

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In February 2015 the prices of wheat flour remained stable in the country’s markets. As of

February 27, 2015, the average price of one 50-kilogram bag of domestically-produced

first grade flour was 155.50 TJS (28.6 USD). The price of first grade flour produced in

Kazakhstan was 163.50 TJS (30.1 USD.)

In January 2015, the average price of imported oil products was 805 USD per ton, a

decrease of 5.5 percent compared with the January of the previous year. During this

period 37.5 thousand tons of oil products were imported into the Republic, 29.1 thousand

tons less than last year. Those imports included 10.4 thousand tons of diesel fuel imported

at an average price of 731 USD per ton and 20.5 thousand tons of gasoline at an average

price of 737 USD per ton.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and to the forecast, the autumn sowing of crops

will be carried out on 172,515 hectares of land. According to operative data, as of March

10, 2015 planting acreage was 187,426 hectares (109%), which is 11,006 hectares less

than in the last period.

In accordance with the forecast, the spring sowing of cereal crops will be carried out on

105,309 hectares of land. As of March 10, 2015 planting acreage was 26,692 hectares

(25%), 15,999 hectares more than in the same period of the last year.

In accordance with the forecast, potato planting is planned on 5,050 hectares. As of March

10, 2015, planting acreage was 4,153 hectares (82%), 1,351 hectares more than in the

same period of the last year.

For more detailed information please contact the MEWS Working Group at:

[email protected].

Tajikistan Food Security Monitoring System (FSMS) Bulletin for February 2015, prepared

by UN World Food Programme (WFP) informs: “Seasonal food insecurity observed in

December 2014 shows no improvement compared to November 2012. Change, however,

is noticeable against last April, with an increase at both ends of the spectrum: more

households have become food secure (22 percent) but more households have also

become severely/moderately food insecure (23 percent), which is a cause for concern at

the beginning of the lean season.

A lower wheat harvest and a poor potato harvest contributed to reduced household food

stocks compared to the same period of the year in previous FSMS rounds. A depreciated

national currency and higher regional food prices also pushed up local food prices thereby

decreasing access to food.

Food consumption scores deteriorated with 11 percent of the households scoring

‘borderline’ and 5 percent ‘poor’. The FSMS also observed that households whose income

relies mostly on social benefits, welfare or daily wage labour were the most affected.


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The increased return of labour migrants and the decreasing volume of remittances has

impacted households’ welfare and food security: remittances were the main source of

income for only 15 percent of households in December 2014, against 27 percent in

November 2012. The impact of the Russian economic slowdown, however, will be felt

more severely in the spring, when most seasonal labour migrants normally leave for

Russia to seek employment.

Overall food security is expected to deteriorate throughout the lean season, until the start

of the winter harvest in May. Food security should, therefore, be monitored closely in the

coming months, especially in livelihood zones showing the most signs of vulnerability: the

Rasht valley, the Ghonchi and Istaravshan area, the Eastern Pamir plateau and most of the

Khatlon region.” More detailed information can be obtained at the WFP Tajikistan office:

[email protected] or [email protected]

4.2. Wheat Flour Prices4

First Grade Wheat Flour

The chart below shows prices for first grade wheat flour in Dushanbe, Khujand, and

Kurgan-Tyube markets from January 2010 to the end of February 2015. In February 2015 a

decline in wheat flour prices was observed in Khujand markets. A slight increase was

observed in Dushanbe and Kurgan-Tyube markets in comparison with January 2015.

First Grade Wheat Flour Prices in three main markets for January 2010 – February 2015

(TJS/kg)

The chart below provides prices for first grade wheat flour in two large regional markets in

Gharm and Khorog and the average prices for Dushanbe, Khujand and Kurgan-Tyube. In

February 2015, a decline in wheat flour prices was observed in Khorog but prices

remained unchanged in Gharm compared to January 2015.

4 Food and fuel prices are from UN WFP Food Security Weekly Market Monitoring, Tajikistan

http://untj.org/country_context/coordination_mechanisms/agriculture&food_security/fsms/



http://untj.org/country_context/coordination_mechanisms/agriculture&food_security/fsms/

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First Grade Wheat Flour Prices in Gharm, Khorog, and the average in three main markets

for January 2010 – February 2015 (TJS/kg)

4.3. Fuel Prices

In February 2015 a decline in gasoline and diesel fuel prices was observed in all Dushanbe,

Khujand and Kurgan-Tyube markets in comparison with January 2015.

Petrol Prices in three main markets for January 2010 – February 2015 (TJS/liter)

Diesel Prices in three main markets for January 2010 – February 2015 (TJS/liter)

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5. HEALTH

According to the Ministry of Health and Social Protection of the Population of RT, until

March 6, 2015, the epidemiological situation and trends on major notifiable infectious

diseases are relatively good. Compared to the same period of 2014, there is:

a comparative decline in the number of cases of intestinal infections and water-borne diseases, including acute intestinal infections;

a comparative decline in the

number of Typhoid fever cases;

reduction in the number of viral hepatitis cases;

a reduction in the number of cases of acute respiratory viral infections;

a comparative increase in the

number of cases of Brucellosis;

a comparative increase in the

number of cases of Scarlet

fever;

a comparative increase in

registration of bites by wild and

domestic animals.

With the beginning of the spring, the risk of acute respiratory viral infections—including

the flu—decreases. For other infectious diseases the epidemiological situation is assessed

as auspicious.

Table 4. Statistical data on the epidemiological situation for February 2015 in comparison with the same period of the last year

# Name of disease 2014 2015 Change (-), (+)

1 Typhoid Fever 9 2 -7

2 Acute intestinal infections

1687 1349 -338

3 Dysentery 50 33 -17

4 Brucellosis 99 101 +2

5 Scarlet fever 20 24 +4

6 Bites and Saliva Contact 2547 2611 +64

7 Tuberculosis 662 317 -345

8 Acute respiratory infections

62834 47633 -15201

9 Flu 3189 2019 -1170

Table 5. Expected risks in March 2015 and recommended appropriate measures

Expected risks Recommended appropriate measures

The risk of rising incidence of acute respiratory viral infections remains high due to the change of climatic conditions of the winter-spring season.

Avoid close contact with people who have fever and cough. Avoid crowded places or reduce time spent in crowded places. Practice proper hygiene - wash hands frequently with soap and water or use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer, especially when touching mouth and nose. Increase the flow of fresh air into the home, and open windows as often as possible (ventilate). Use a protective mask when in contact with a sick person. Maintain a healthy lifestyle: good sleep, balanced nutrition, physical activity, regular walks, fresh air and exercise.

An outbreak of food poisoning (botulism). Maintain proper storage and transportation conditions of perishable foods. Be attentive to

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6. ECONOMIC TRENDS

6.1. General trends

In January 2015 gross domestic product of the Republic compared with the same period of

the last year increased by 5.1 percent and amounted to 2,636 million TJS (493.6 million

USD.) GDP growth rate compared to January 2014 declined by 2.0 percentage points. The

deflator index of prices totaled 99.2 percent. GDP per capita in the reporting period

totaled 303.6 TJS (56.8 USD.)

The economic growth was mainly due to the development of industries at 103.2%,

agriculture-107.3%, investments in fixed capital-107.8%, freight transport-101.9%, retail

trade-109.8%.

In January 2015, industrial enterprises of Republic produced goods worth 890 million TJS

(166.6 million USD), 3.2 percent more than in comparison with the January 2014. Growth

in industrial production in January 2015, compared with January 2014, is due to the

significant growth in: mining industries – 12.4 percent, manufacturing – 1.7 percent, and

the production and distribution of electricity, gas, and water – 11.6 percent. The mining

industry’s share of industrial output was 8.0 percent, the manufacturing sector’s share

(food, textile, petrochemical, and metallurgical industries) was 65.6 percent, and the share

of the production and distribution of electricity, gas and water supply, 26.4 percent.

The volume of gross agricultural output (in all types of farms) in January 2015 increased by

7.3 percent compared with the January of last year. Gross agricultural product in the

reporting period amounted to 319.8 million TJS (59.8 million USD), including crop

production—1.5 million TJS (0.3 million USD), or 15.7 percent more, and livestock—318.3

million TJS (59.5 million USD), or 7.3 percent more.

For January 2015, investments in fixed capital from all sources of finance amounted to 327.5 million TJS or 61.3 million USD, 7.8 percent more than in the January of the previous year. 154 million TJS (28.8 million USD) (or 47 percent) were invested in production

homemade canned food and follow specialists’ recommendations for proper use.

According to official statistics of the State Veterinary Supervision Service, there has been an increase in the incidence of brucellosis among animals, which in turn contributes to the growth of infection among the population obtaining brucellosis from animals.

Early detection and treatment of infected animals. Take comprehensive preventive measures.

Due to the fact that there is no registration, certification, and regular vaccination of dogs (even in the capital city of the country) by the Office of the State Veterinary Supervision, the risk of mortality from rabies remains high.

Strengthen control over stray animals. If necessary, take measures for the capture and isolation of stray dogs. Vaccinate domestic animals. Immediately go to the nearest hospital in the event of an animal bite.

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facilities. 173.5 million TJS (32.5 million USD), or 53 percent of total investment in the country, were invested in non-production facilities. Most investments, 58.5 percent, were made in the public sector. The private sector accounted for 25.1 percent, joint ventures accounted for 2.4 percent, and foreign ownership accounted for 14 percent.

In January 2015 the inflation rate in the consumer sector was 0.6 percent in comparison with December 2014. The main contributors to inflation were food products—0.9 percent, paid services—0.5 percent, and non-food products—0.1 percent.

According to the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Tajikistan, the total State budget amounted to 870.1 million TJS (162.8 million USD) for January 2015, or 34.3 percent of GDP.

The total volume of credit balances as of March 1, 2015, (data for February) has amounted to 9.9 billion TJS (1,853.9 million USD). Compared with the same date of 2014, it has increased by 29.1 percent. The positive trend of lending is due mainly to increasing balances of loans in foreign currency by 30.2 percent. The volume of loans to economic sectors for this period amounted to 817.8 million TJS (153.1 million USD), increasing by 13.8 percent in comparison with the same period of previous year. The volume of repaid loans reached 693.4 million TJS (129.8 million USD), which is 84.8 percent of the total issued credits for this period.

Foreign trade accounted for 23.5% of total loans, construction - 16.5%, consumption - 17.0%, industry - 9.0%, agricultural sector - 16.2%, financial intermediation - 3.7% and other sectors – 1.0%. At the same time, the development of credit investments for business activities in the country remains the primary priority of monetary policy. From the total volume of loans granted by the banking system, 47.8% were sent to national entrepreneurs.

The development of microcredit throughout the country, especially in remote mountainous regions, continues to be a priority and an important part of the country’s banking system. The country’s banking system is doing everything possible to implement this national priority. From the beginning of 2015, microloans totaled 492.1 million TJS (92.2 million USD), increasing by 6.7 percent in comparison with the same period of the last year. In distant high elevations of the country microloans of 88.5 million TJS (16.6 million USD) were made, 0.2 percent more than in the same period of the last year.

Total volume of credits and loans

*-data as of March 1, 2015

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For January 2015, foreign trade turnover amounted to 344.8 million USD. Compared with

the January of 2014, it declined by 12.6 percent. Goods exports amounted to 93.6 million

USD. Imports amounted to 251 million USD. Negative balance of foreign trade turnover

totaled 157.2 million USD.

6.2. Labor Migration of Population

According to the Migration Service of the Ministry of Labor, Migration, and Employment of

the Population of the Republic of Tajikistan, for two months of 2015 a total of 83,062 labor

migrants left Tajikistan, 13.4 percent less than in the same period of 2014. 71,086 persons

returned to the country.

In February, the number of labor migrants were 37,644 people, which is 17.1% less

compared to January. The reduction in labor migration is due to the new regulations for

entrance into the Russian Federation on International Passports from January 1, 2015, and

amendments in the existing Russian Federation legislation on the activities of labor

migrants from foreign countries.

According to the information published on the "Asia Plus" Media Group website, the

issues on processing and issuing patents to labor migrants were discussed recently in a

United Migration Centre of Moscow region, according to the press service of the Federal

Migration Service of the Russian Government. For more detailed information, please visit:

http://www.news.tj/en/news/tajik-labor-migrants-may-work-russia-year-under-patens-

received-last-year.

The Monthly Labor Migration Outside of Tajikistan for 2010 - 2015 chart below provides

a year-to-year summary of annual out-migration numbers from 2010 to 2015.

http://www.news.tj/en/news/tajik-labor-migrants-may-work-russia-year-under-patens-received-last-year

http://www.news.tj/en/news/tajik-labor-migrants-may-work-russia-year-under-patens-received-last-year

17


The Total Labor Migration for 2010-2015 chart below indicates that the total level of labor

migration in 2015 is below the level of labor migration in the same period of 2014.

6.3. Employment

According to the Agency of Labor and Employment Department of the Ministry of Labor,

Migration, and Employment of the Population of the Republic of Tajikistan, 19,155 citizens

applied to the Agency for help in January-February 2015. Of this number, 11,252

individuals were registered as job seekers, and 8,206 individuals were recognized as

officially unemployed. For two months of the current year, 4,203 people were provided

with jobs with the assistance of the employment services, which is 21.9 percent of the

total number of all citizens who applied. The main reasons for providing a limited number

of people with jobs were that the majority of the unemployed did not have the necessary

technical training or had lost skills due to prolonged unemployment, as well as the low

level of wages offered by employers.

During February 2015, unemployment benefits totaling 706.1 thousand TJS (132.2

thousand USD) were paid to 1,936 people. As of March 1, 2015, a total of 84,297 persons

were registered with the Agency as looking for work, including 55,006 registered as

unemployed and including those persons remaining from 2014. For January-February

2015, 3348 people were sent to vocational training, 286 people were provided with social-

paid jobs, and 283 people were provided with soft loans to start their own businesses.

According to the State Agency on Social Protection, Employment, and Migration of RT, for

first two months of 2015, 19,202 new jobs were created, which is 28.6 percent more than

for the same period of the previous year (14,926).

6.4. Exchange Rate

The chart below shows both the official National Bank of Tajikistan (NBT) exchange rate

and unofficial (market) exchange rate monitored weekly by the UN WFP. The NBT rate for

March 1, 2015, increased to 5.44 TJS per one USD. The UN WFP reported an average

market exchange rate of 5.74 TJS per one USD for the five main markets in Tajikistan on

March 1, 2015.

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Exchange Rate of Tajik Somoni (TJS) against US Dollar, January 2009 –February 2015

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Annex A - Weather forecast for March 2015

Khatlon Province and Lower Elevations of Direct Ruled Districts (DRD)

The monthly average temperature is expected to be within the norm and in some places

10C below the normal range. The temperature will be from 9 to 110С at lower elevations

and from 5 to 70С in the foothills. At the beginning of the month, the temperature is

expected to be within 10-150C in the afternoon and -1 to 40С at night. Other days the

temperature is expected to rise up from 12-170C to 19-240C in the afternoon and from 2-

70C to 5-100C at night. In the foothills of Khatlon Province’s districts, the temperature

fluctuation is expected to be from 4-90C to 11-160C in the afternoon, and from -3 to 20C to

3 to 80C at night.

Monthly precipitation is expected to be within the norm (norm: at lower elevations 43 to

148 mm; in the foothills 169 to 233 mm.)

Sughd Province

The monthly average temperature is expected to be within the norm and in some places

10C below the normal range. The temperature will be from 4 to 90С at lower elevations

and from 2 to 40С at higher elevations. At the beginning of the month, the temperature is

expected to be within 6 to 110C in the afternoon and -2 to 30C at night. At higher

elevations, the temperature will be -2 to 30С in the afternoon and -4 to -90C at night.

Other days the temperature may rise up from 10-150C to 15-200C in the afternoon and

from 0-50С to 3-80С at night. At higher elevations, the temperature will be from 0-50С to 3-

80С in the afternoon and from -3 -80C to -4 to 10C at night.

Monthly precipitation is expected to be within the norm (norm: at lower elevations 25 to

54 mm; in the mountains 25 to 47 mm.)

Higher Elevations of DRD and Western Regions of GBAO

Monthly average temperature is expected to be within the climatic norm. In some places

the temperature will be 10С below the climatic norm and will be from -1 to 40C. During the

month the temperature is expected to fluctuate from 1 to 60C to 6 to 110C in the

afternoon and from -2 to -70C to -3 to 20C at night.

Monthly precipitation is expected to be within the norm (norm: in DRD – 62 to 160mm, in

the Western regions of GBAO – 17 to 76mm.)

Eastern Regions of GBAO

Monthly average temperature is expected to be within the norm and in some places 10С

below the climatic norm and will be from -3 to -60C. In the beginning the month, the

temperature is expected to be low: -3 to -80C in the afternoon, from -18 to -230C and -12

20


to -170C at night. Other days the temperature is expected to rise up from 2 to 70C and 6 to

110C in the afternoon. The temperature will rise from -6 to -110C and from -3 to -80C at

night.

Monthly precipitation is expected to be within the norm (norm: 5-23 mm.)

21


The aim of the Tajikistan monthly Monitoring and Early Warning (MEW) Reports is to provide regular information and succinct analysis on the evolution of natural, economic, food, energy and other risk factors in Tajikistan. Data and information in this report are provided by different sources and compiled by Group of Experts of Government organizations and institutions of the MEW Center (MEWS) under the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade (MEDT) of RT with the support of UNDP and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) in Tajikistan. MEWS at MEDT was created in conjunction with the United Nations Development Program in Tajikistan in 2010. The members of the MEWS Working Group include the following organizations and institutions:

Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, RT

Ministry of Industry and New Technologies, RT

Ministry of Energy and Water Resources, RT

Ministry of Labor, Migration and Employment of Population, RT

Ministry of Health and Social protection of population, RT

Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Tajikistan

Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Tajikistan

Committee of Emergency Situations and Civil Defense under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan

Agency on statistics under President of RT

Main Department of Geology under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan

National Bank of Tajikistan

Migration service of the Ministry of Labor, Migration and population employment of RT

OJHC «Barqi Tojik»

OJSC «Tajiktransgaz»

Hydrometeorology Government institution

Agency of Labor and Employment

Institute of Geology, Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan

The Monitoring and Early Warning Center at the MERT is not responsible for the quality and accuracy of data provided by external sources or analysis based on these data.

Contact information:

Ministry of Economic Development and Trade Tajikistan 37 Bokhtar, 2nd floor, office #225, Dushanbe 734002 e-mail: [email protected] Tel. (992 37) 223-06-96

Report is available on the website:

http://www.medt.tj/en/index/index/pageId/791/

or

http://untj.org/coordination-mechanisms/disaster-management/monitoring-and-early-warning-system


http://www.medt.tj/en/index/index/pageId/791/

http://untj.org/coordination-mechanisms/disaster-management/monitoring-and-early-warning-system

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