Mongolian Gazelles and Grassland Management (a first ...
Transcript of Mongolian Gazelles and Grassland Management (a first ...
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Mongolian Gazelles and Grassland Management
(a first attempt at modelling a population of Mongolian gazelle)
October 2004
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Dr. Julian F. DerryInstitute of Evolutionary Biology,School of Biological Sciences,University of Edinburgh, Ashworth Labs,Kings Buildings, West Mains Rd., Edinburgh,EH9 3JT, Scotland, UK
October 2004
Mongolian Gazelles and Grassland Management
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Contents1. What are models and how they can help
- everyday examples
- conservation examples
2. Building a Mongolian model
- components
- numbers
- scenarios
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Contents1. What are models and how they can help
- everyday examples
- conservation examples
2. Building a Mongolian model
- components
- numbers
- scenarios
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Weather forecasts
Film and entertainment
Medicine
Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within Hironobu Sakaguchi & Moto Sakakibara
Everyday examples #1
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Everyday examples #2
Stress tests
Travel safety
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Conservation examplesRoan antelope, Northern Plains, Kruger National Park, South Africa
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Conservation examplesMediterranean monk seal
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Contents1. What are models and how they can help
- everyday examples
- conservation examples
2. Building a Mongolian model
- components
- numbers: data
- scenarios: competition with livestock & hunting
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The modelJulian Derry Andrew Illius Iain Gordon
Yikes! Hunters!
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Components
Key components of the models of soil water balance, plant phenology and animal metabolism
Climate
Grass
GazelleSheep Goats
Cattle
Soil
consumption
defoliationtransp
irationrainfall
growth
evaporation
Runoff(rivers,streams)
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Components
DeadLeaf
DeadStem
GreenLeaf
StoresFallenSeed
GreenStem
Seed
VEGETATION
DeadLeaf
Wood GreenLeaf
StoresFallenSeed
GreenStem
Seed
growth(kg/ha/d)
growth(kg/ha/d)
HERBIVORES
selection(kg/ha/head/d)
consumption(kg/ha/d)
defoliation(kg/ha/d)
defoliation(kg/ha/d)
rainfall(mm/d)
temperature(°C)
relativehumidity
(%)
evaporation(kg/m /d)2
solarradiation
(MJ/m /d)2
transpiration(kg/m /d)2
SOIL
DAILY CLIMATE
WOODYHERBACEOUS
DIET
cover(kg/ha)
Grids were used within each module to model spatial processes such as climatic variation, landscape topography, surface water runoff, vegetation distribution and animal movement. The flow of energy for each iteration (arrows) passed data from the climate module to the soil module where daily transpiration was predicted before being converted into growth for each vegetation type and allocation to plant parts. Selecting the maximum energy intake rates of optimal mixtures of plant parts from the range of available forage components (green), predicted on an individual basis (per head), determined a foraging pathway for each animal herd. Herd consumption was levied on the selected forage plant parts.
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Numbers: climate
• Daily rainfall (mm)• Atmospheric pressure (mb)• Minimum temperature (oC)• Average temperature (oC)• Wind Speed (ms-1)
Paul Hudspeth, US National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)
Rainfall (mm/day)
01020
3040506070
8090
100
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
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Hi Julian,
I notice two major greenup periods. The first once it becomes warm enough for plants to grow it seems the entire steppe initiates a sort-of green flush, areas where snow fall was deeper is greener. Then starting any time after mid June the rains begin and the steppe greens up according to where more rain falls. It stays green longer in areas where the rains came late or rained longer.
Kirk
Numbers: climate
LEE et al. (2002) Int. J. Remote Sensing, 23, 2505-2512
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Hi Julian,
I notice two major greenup periods. The first once it becomes warm enough for plants to grow it seems the entire steppe initiates a sort-of green flush, areas where snow fall was deeper is greener. Then starting any time after mid June the rains begin and the steppe greens up according to where more rain falls. It stays green longer in areas where the rains came late or rained longer.
Kirk
Numbers: climate
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
day of year
Gra
ss fl
ush
(kg
ha-1
)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
tem
pera
ture
(oC)
green grass
temperature
JUNE
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350day of year
Gra
ss fl
ush
(kg
ha-1
)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
rain
fall
(mm
)
green grass
rain
JUNE
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Numbers: topography
Gazelle surveyChoibalsan / Kherlen Gol / Dornod
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Numbers: topography
Gazelle surveyChoibalsan / Kherlen Gol / Dornod
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Numbers: topography
Gazelle surveyChoibalsan / Kherlen Gol / Dornod
sample: [113.5E,46N] [115.5E,48N]
300 km x 300 km9,000,000 hectares
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Numbers: topography
Gazelle surveyChoibalsan / Kherlen Gol / Dornod
sample: [113.5E,46N] [115.5E,48N]
300 km x 300 km9,000,000 hectares
20 x 20 grid
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Numbers: topography
20 x 20 grid
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Numbers: topography
20 x 20 grid
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Numbers: grass
Starting distribution of grass
20 x 20 grid
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Numbers: sum centres20 x 20 grid
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Numbers: gazelleScientific data for the area
•850,000 gazelle (66% female)
•35 kg mature male
•180 days gestation
•single breeding pulse ~10 days in late December
•71% calf survival
•12,500 gazelle die from disease each year
•24,000 gazelle hunted each year in Choibalsan area
Social data for the area•also possible to include colloquial data for the area,
e.g., preferred hunting targets mortality sequence
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Scenarios: livestock competition
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Scenarios: livestock competition
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Winter grounds
Scenarios: livestock competition
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Summer grounds
Scenarios: livestock competition
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Scenarios: hunting
NB: NO large losses to disease
[4.2,1.6,1.3]
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Grassland Management #1
7 Lessons from the model...
1. Gazelle and livestock can co-exist, if the livestock herds are kept small.
2. Gazelle are least in competition with animals much larger than themselves - they feed on different plants and parts of plants.
3. Gazelle need to be able to find enough food to eat, especially in Winter. If where they need to go is blocked by railroads, roads, fences, etc., then this will limit their chances of surviving the Winter.
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Grassland Management #24. Summer grounds are specialized areas that need to be protected because gazelles are choosing to go there because of the food that is there, particularly when they are calving.
5. Hunting is the major threat to survival of the gazelle.
6. Hunting is estimated to be about 4% at present, (but it is probably more) .
7. The gazelles will go into decline when hunting is killing 10% of the gazelle numbers, IF THERE ARE NO OTHER LARGE LOSSES TO DROUGHT AND DISEASE.