Moneytalks “How to Trade” Workshops Kamloops / Kelowna / Surrey May 18, 19, 20 Victor Adair .
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Transcript of Moneytalks “How to Trade” Workshops Kamloops / Kelowna / Surrey May 18, 19, 20 Victor Adair .
Moneytalks “How to Trade”
Workshopswww.Moneytalks.net
Kamloops / Kelowna / SurreyMay 18, 19, 20
Victor Adairwww.VictorAdair.com
Outline
• Part One• Definition of trading• Motives, objectives, opinions,
consequences• Learning how to trade
• Part Two• Charts I watch
This is not a school
• This is just me talking about my ideas, my way of looking at things
• Perhaps you will get an idea that will help you
Definition of trading
• To be in the right thing at the right time
• Not (necessarily) day trading
• To move from one asset to another or to cash
• To be short in a down market
• Everything is a spread
• Learn, think, see, assign probabilities, manage risk, act, sit.
Motives for learning to trade
• It’s necessary to learn how to look after yourself
• Zero returns on cash
• You can trade from anywhere
• The world is changing very fast - get free from your old opinions
• It’s better than working!
Learn to think like a trader
• What’s done is done – what can you learn from it – what are you going to do now?
• Opinions are necessary – and dangerous – why do you believe what you believe?
• Why Buy often means Sell• Psychology is more important than math• Look for the relationships between
markets• Anticipate – then wait for confirmation!
Opinions
• Credit Boom = Asset Boom + Risk• Not an ordinary recession – a post bubble
credit contraction• More money borrowed than will ever be
repaid – lenders and borrowers less willing• Authorities launched massive stimulus to
reflate economies• Inflation or Deflation?• Something big breaks – the Euro?
Opinions
• Market psychology swings between willingness to embrace risk (whistling past the graveyard) and trying to escape from risk
• Musical Chairs: everyone (?) knows there’s danger, but they think they can avoid it
• Capital moves back and forth between the center (safe) and the periphery (risky)
Consequences
• Massive and growing Gov’t debts and deficits – who pays? How to they pay?
• Raise taxes?• Cut services / break promises?• Default?• Inflate away?• Rising interest rates as investors shun debt?• More gov’t in your future? Welcomed by who?
What am I doing?
• Semi-retired, managing my own money • Savings: very conservative, liquid• Trading accounts: very little leverage• No debts, no assets• 40 years of trading experience and trying to
learn more• Re-examine everything, protect myself from the
government• Objective: maintain and grow my purchasing
power while managing risk of loss; maintain independence, mobility