Molybdenum Market Outlook€¦ · China Molybdenum Jinduicheng Antofagasta 18.8 14.1 89 Thompson...

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Molybdenum Market Outlook Molybdenum Market Outlook Mark Wilson, VP Marketing and Sales International Titanium Association Conference September 21-24, 2008

Transcript of Molybdenum Market Outlook€¦ · China Molybdenum Jinduicheng Antofagasta 18.8 14.1 89 Thompson...

Page 1: Molybdenum Market Outlook€¦ · China Molybdenum Jinduicheng Antofagasta 18.8 14.1 89 Thompson Creek*** Antamina Cllh i 16 Collahuasi 8.9 ... • Demand is robust with oil industry

Molybdenum Market OutlookMolybdenum Market Outlook

Mark Wilson, VP Marketing and SalesInternational Titanium Association ConferenceSeptember 21-24, 2008

Page 2: Molybdenum Market Outlook€¦ · China Molybdenum Jinduicheng Antofagasta 18.8 14.1 89 Thompson Creek*** Antamina Cllh i 16 Collahuasi 8.9 ... • Demand is robust with oil industry

Cautionary Statements

This presentation contains “forward-looking information” within the meaning of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and applicable Canadian securities legislation which may include, but is not limited to, statements with respect to the pp g y , , ptiming and amount of estimated future production. Often, but not always, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of words such as “plans”, “expects”, “is expected”, “budget”, “scheduled”, “estimates”, “forecasts”, “intends”, “anticipates”, or “believes” or variations (including negative variations) of such words and phrases, or state that certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”, “might” or “will” be taken, occur or be achieved. Forward-looking statements involve known and unknownrisks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Thompson Creek and/or its subsidiaries to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. Such factors include those factors discussed in the section entitled “Risk Factors” in Thompson Creek’s current annual information form which is available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com and is incorporated in its Annual Report on Form 40-F filed p pwith the United States Securities and Exchange Commission which is available at www.sec.gov. Although Thompson Creek has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual actions, events or results to differ materially from those described in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause actions, events or results to differ from those anticipated, estimated or intended. Forward-looking statements contained herein are made as of the date of this presentation and Thompson Creek does not undertake to update any such forward-looking statements, except in accordance with applicable securities laws. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

Readers should refer to Thompson Creek’s current annual information form which is available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com and is incorporated in its Annual Report on Form 40-F filed with the SEC which is available at www.sec.gov and subsequent continuous disclosure documents available at www.sedar.com and www.sec.gov for further information on mineral reserves and mineral resources, which is subject to the qualifications and notes set forth therein.

Cautionary Note to United States Investors Concerning Estimates of Measured, Indicated and Inferred Mineral Resources: This presentation uses the terms “Measured”, “Indicated” and “Inferred” Resources. United States investors are advised that while such p ,terms are recognized and required by Canadian regulations, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission does not recognize them. “Inferred Mineral Resources” have a great amount of uncertainty as to their existence, and as to their economic and legalfeasibility. It cannot be assumed that all or any part of an Inferred Mineral Resource will ever be upgraded to a higher category. Under Canadian rules, estimates of Inferred Mineral Resources may not form the basis of feasibility or other economic studies. United States investors are cautioned not to assume that all or any part of Measured or Indicated Mineral Resources will ever be converted into Mineral Reserves. United States investors are also cautioned not to assume that all or any part of an Inferred Mineral Resource exists, or is economically or legally mineable.

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Company Profile

• Integrated North American producer with two mines and two metallurgical processing facilities.

• Stable work force/experienced management.

• Reserves: Measured + indicated: 1 billion lbs of Mo* P b bl 500 illi lb M *Proven + probable: 500 million lbs Mo*

• H1 2008 - Revenues: $498 million; Net Income: $107 million

S h fl R d d d b / i li bili i b $564 • Strong cash flow. Reduced debt/contingent liabilities by $564 million since the October 2006 acquisition.

• Substantial growth potential at both mines plus a significant mineral reso rce in British Col mbiasignificant mineral resource in British Columbia.

* Scott Wilson Roscoe Postle Associates technical report for Thompson Creek Mine, Wardrop Engineering for Endako Mine, and Gary Giroux on the Davidson Deposit

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P tiMap of Properties

British

Davidson Deposit• High Grade• Underground Deposit

Davidson Deposit• High Grade• Underground Deposit

British Columbia

CanadaEndako (75%)• Open Pit Mine

C t t

Endako (75%)• Open Pit Mine

C t t

Idaho

• Concentrator• Roasting Facility• Concentrator• Roasting Facility

Thompson CreekThompson Creek

United States of America

PennsylvaniaThompson Creek• Open Pit Mine• Concentrator

Thompson Creek• Open Pit Mine• Concentrator Langeloth

• Metallurgical FacilityLangeloth• Metallurgical Facilityof America

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Page 5: Molybdenum Market Outlook€¦ · China Molybdenum Jinduicheng Antofagasta 18.8 14.1 89 Thompson Creek*** Antamina Cllh i 16 Collahuasi 8.9 ... • Demand is robust with oil industry

What is Molybdenum?

• Element 42 on Period Table symbol Mo

y

• Element 42 on Period Table, symbol Mo

• Very high melting point, 2,610 degrees Celsius

• Strengthens steel, improves weldability, reduces brittleness

• Helps steel to perform well in very high or low temperatures

• Powerful anti-corrosive in stainless and alloy steels

E ti l t l t i t l fi i f lf l• Essential catalyst in petroleum refining for sulfur removal

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Moly Productsy

Metallurgical Grade 75%Grade 75%

Upgraded Products25%

• Moly disulfide• Pure moly trioxide

A i di l bd t (ADM)

• Moly tech oxide• Ferromolybdenum

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• Ammonium dimolybdate (ADM)• Sodium molybdate• Moly metal

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Estimated World Current Demand for Molyy

Construction

Foundry 6%

Tool and High Speed Steel 6%

Co st uct oSteel 32%

Mo Metal 6%

Foundry 6%

Stainless

Chemicals 14%

Superalloys 5%Stainless Steel 31%

Chemicals 14%

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Construction Steels • (0.1% – 1.2% Mo)

Main Driver: Oil Exploration and Development

• Increased demand for production: drilling and pipelines

• Remote sources: deeper drilling longer pipelines• Remote sources: deeper drilling, longer pipelines

• Ocean exploration/development: production platforms, shipping, piping

• High-sulfur fuels including heavy oils and tar sands: corrosive

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Stainless Steels • (1-7% Mo)( )

Main Driver: Capital Projects

A. Chemical Processing• Petrochemical• DesalinizationDesalinization• Pulp & paper• Food processing

Pharmaceutical• Pharmaceutical

B. Power Generation: Nuclear, Coal, and Gas

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Other Applications

% MoTool Steel 1-5%

High Speed Steel 5-9%

Foundry/Cast Iron up to 15%

Moly Metal 99.5%

Super alloys 4-15%

Chemicals- Catalysts 8-20%

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- Lubricants up to 15%- Other 1-3%

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Structural Changes in Moly Demandg y

A. Moly is a metal for developed economies • Rapid industrialization of China, India, Brazil, and Russiap , , ,

B. Demand follows growth in wealth of Middle East• Desalination plants/architectural steel/oil refineriesp

C. Industrial requirements demand better steels• Economies of scale in industrial applications demand

higher operating temperatures• fuel economy in aerospace and autos require improved

steel strength to weight ratio

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Structural Changes in Moly Demand g y

D. Limited substitution of Moly with other products• Moly – Value Addition: The cost is less than the value of y

the benefits

E In Summary Increasing Intensity-of-Use in E. In Summary, Increasing Intensity of Use in developed economies

• Oil industry – remoteness, high sulfur component E i t l t d d f l d i i• Environmental standards – fuel economy and emissions

• Industrialization of BRIC countries

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Moly World Demand800

600

700 ActualDemand

Projected

400

500

ProjectedDemand

mill

ions

lbs

4% Growth(per annum)

200

300Mo,

m

0

100

200

13

0

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1996

2000

2004

2008

2012

2016

2020

Year

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World Molybdenum 2007 Productiony440 million+ lbs annually

B d t 60%By-product 60%

Primary 40%

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World Molybdenum 2007 Productiony

Other 20%Other 20%

China 22%

US 33%

China 22%

Chile 25%

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Top 10 Producers of MolybdenumTop 10 Producers* 2007 OutputTop 10 Producers 2007 Output

(million lbs Mo*)

71.261 9

Freeport/Phelps Dodge**C d l 61.9

36.233.1

CodelcoGrupo Mexico****Rio Tinto/Kennecott

30.528.722.3

China MolybdenumJinduichengAntofagasta 22.3

18.814.18 9

AntofagastaThompson Creek***AntaminaC ll h i

16

8.9Collahuasi*Source: CRU, contained molybdenum, by operator** Includes all of Cerro Verde output (Freeport owns 53%)***Includes all of Endako (Thompson Creek owns 75%)****Includes Southern Copper

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World Molybdenum Supply Trendsy pp y

• No excess inventory

• Limited immediate additional capacity

• Falling production at several by-product • Falling production at several by product mines

• Green field sites take time- Financing- Permitting- Equipment and staffing

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Equipment and staffing

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China• Large reserves, significant potential supply

• Government regulation limiting exports – Eliminated duty rebates in August 2005– Applied export tariffs in November 2006– Implemented export quotas in June 2007Implemented export quotas in June 2007

• Quotas are reducing moly net exports

High t f i t l l d d li i t • High rate of internal moly demand may eliminate all exports by 2013

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Net Exports from Chinap

100

120

60

80

ExportsI tbs

. Mo

40

60 ImportsNet Exports

Mill

ions

lb

0

20

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

19

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008Quotas

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Near Term Outlook• Demand is robust with oil industry and China

as main drivers

• Market tightness through 2009 with supply unlikely to keep pace with demand

• Export regulations will continue to restrict exports from China

• Opening of Climax Mine balances market by 2010-11

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Thompson CreekIdaho

Metallurgical FacilityLangeloth,Pennsylvania

Davidson DepositBritish Columbia

EndakoBritish Columbia

One of the World’s Largest Publicly TradedPure Moly Producers (TSX: TCM)

(NYSE: TC)

One of the World’s Largest Publicly TradedPure Moly Producers (TSX: TCM)

(NYSE: TC)(NYSE: TC)(NYSE: TC)