Module 6 Forecasting Policy Delphi Analy
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Transcript of Module 6 Forecasting Policy Delphi Analy
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Module 6Module 6
Forecasting Expected PolicyForecasting Expected PolicyOutcomes With ExpertOutcomes With Expert
JudgmentJudgmentPolicyPolicy
Delphi AnalysisDelphi Analysis
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POLICYPERFORMANCE
EXPECTEDOUTCOMES
PREFERREDPOLICIES
OBSERVEDOUTCOMES
ForecastingEvaluation
Monitoring Recommendation
problem
structuring
problem
structuring
POLICYPROBLEMS
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Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives
Distinguish projections, predictions, andDistinguish projections, predictions, andconjecturesconjectures
Understand the effects of institutionalUnderstand the effects of institutionalcontexts on forecast accuracycontexts on forecast accuracy
Contrast potential, plausible, and normativeContrast potential, plausible, and normativefuturesfutures
Evaluate methods of crossEvaluate methods of cross--impact analysisimpact analysisand feasibility assessmentand feasibility assessment
Use policy Delphi analysis to make point andUse policy Delphi analysis to make point andinterval forecastsinterval forecasts
Create a Delphi forecast of MacedoniasCreate a Delphi forecast of Macedoniasaccession to the European Unionaccession to the European Union
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The Logic of Theoretical PredictionThe Logic of Theoretical Prediction
I C
R
B
So far, Macedonia
is being isolatedfrom the European
Union
EU members will
realize that the costsare unacceptably
great, and stop the
isolation.
Thus
Probably
Unless: What is seen as a
cost by one party is seen as a
benefit by another. Actually,
EU countries are not isolating
Macedonia.
The greater the cost of an alternative,
the less likely it will be pursued.
The isolation of Macedonia
from the EU will destabilize
the region, which will be
very costly to Europe.
Probably not
Q
W
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The Logic of Expert JudgmentThe Logic of Expert Judgment
I C
R
B
The research on EU
accession indicates thatMacedonia will become
a member sometime
between 2010 and
2020.
Macedonia will
become an EUmember between
2010 and 2020.
Thus
This is 95%
probable.
Unless: The experts are not
credible. They ignore intervening
events that make accession more(less) likely. Expert consensus
produces unreliable results.
The experts are credible because they have
the experience and insight to predict the future
of EU accession.
Probably not
Q
W
Experts on EU accession are
conducting credible research
in well-known think tanks.
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Principles of Delphi AnalysisPrinciples of Delphi Analysis
AnonymityAnonymityParticipants are relatively equalParticipants are relatively equalin their freedom to make judgements andin their freedom to make judgements andprovide reasonsprovide reasons
IterationIterationRepeated rounds permitRepeated rounds permit
participants to change their judgementsparticipants to change their judgements Controlled feedbackControlled feedbackQuestionnairesQuestionnaires
revised after 2revised after 2ndnd-- and subsequent roundsand subsequent rounds
Statistical group responseStatistical group responseMedian, range,Median, range,interinter--quartile range, semiquartile range, semi--interquartile rangeinterquartile range
ExpertconsensusExpertconsensusTraditional DelphiTraditional Delphi
Stakeholder disagreementStakeholder disagreementPolicy DelphiPolicy Delphi
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Steps in a Policy Delphi AnalysisSteps in a Policy Delphi Analysis
Issue selectionIssue selectionWhen will Macedonia become a member of theWhen will Macedonia become a member of theEuropean Union?European Union?
Selection of diverse stakeholdersSelection of diverse stakeholders((advocatesadvocates))Use snowballUse snowball
sampling, starting with stakeholders known to disagree.sampling, starting with stakeholders known to disagree.
Design questionnaireDesign questionnaireInclude questions (items) about issues,Include questions (items) about issues,
forecasts, goals, constraints, and options.forecasts, goals, constraints, and options.
Analyze and provide anonymous group feedback on 1Analyze and provide anonymous group feedback on 1stst--roundround
resultsresultsUse measures of variability as well as averages.Use measures of variability as well as averages.
Design 2Design 2ndnd--round questionnaireround questionnaireEliminate items on which thereEliminate items on which there
is greatestis greatest agreementagreement.. Organize group meetingOrganize group meetingStakeholders (advocates) discussStakeholders (advocates) discuss
reasons for disagreement.reasons for disagreement.
Prepare reportPrepare reportSeek new and creative ideas (goals, options,Seek new and creative ideas (goals, options,
constraints) as well as consensus.constraints) as well as consensus.
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Forms of Providing FeedbackForms of Providing Feedback
Difference graphDifference graph
Histogram or bar chartHistogram or bar chart
StemStem--andand--leaf plotleaf plot
BoxBox--andand--whisker plotwhisker plot
Lists of measures of central tendencyLists of measures of central tendencyand dispersionand dispersion
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Difference GraphDifference Graph
When will Macedonia become a
member ofthe European Union?
2005 2020 2035
NEVER
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Histogram F04Histogram F04
When will Macedonia become a member of the EU?
2025.02022.52020.02017.52015.02012.52010.02007.52005.0
NumberofStakehol
ders
8
6
4
2
0
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Histogram F05Histogram F05
In what year MK will become EU member?
2020.02018.02016.02014.02012.02010.02008.0
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Std. Dev = 3.46
Mean = 2012.5
N = 21.00
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Bar ChartBar Chart
When will Macedonia becme a member of the EU?
2025
2019
2018
2017
2015
2014
2012
2011
2010
2009
2006
2005
NumberofStakeholders
5
4
3
2
1
0
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StemStem--andand--Leaf PlotLeaf Plot
Frequency
.00 200 .
5.00 200 . 56699
8.00 201 . 00001224
4.00 201 . 5789
1.00 Extremes (>=2025)
Stem width: 10Each leaf: 1 case(s)
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BoxBox--andand--Whisker PlotWhisker Plot
18N =
When will Macedonia become a member of the EU?
2030
2020
2010
2000
18
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