Module 4_Climate Change 2

7/29/2019 Module 4_Climate Change 2

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Topic 2: Climate Projections

in the Philippines

Presented by:Thelma A. Cinco

Presented at Training of Trainers on DRR/CCA for local Partners (DRR/CCA ToT), January 9, 2013

Assistant Weather Services Chief, CAD, PAGASA/DOST


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Source: Paul Chan, IMSG


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Climate Prediction Framework

ForecastLeadTime

Warnings & Alert

Coordination

Watches

Forecasts

Threats

Assessments

Guidance

Outlook

Predictio

n

Applications

Tra

nsportation

P

rotectionof

Life&Property

Space

Applications

Recreation

Ecosystem

State/Local

Planning

Environment

Water

M

anagement

Agriculture

WaterResource

Planning

Energy

Commerce

Hydropower

FireWeather

Health

Forecast

Uncerta inty

Initial

Conditions

Boundary

Conditions

Minutes

Hours

Days

1 Week

2 Weeks

Months

Seasons

Years

Weather

Climate Variabil i ty

Scenarios

Anthropogenic

Forcing

Climate Change.

Adapted from: NOAA

Decades

Centuries


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Climatic conditions that are representative of

thepresent day or recent climatic trends for a

given period of time in a specific geographicarea. It describes average conditions.

(Observed Data or control period).

Example: period :1961-1990

1971-2000

Definition of terms


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Defining the Baseline

Two important roles in climate scenarioconstruction:

o serves as a reference period from whichestimated future change in climate iscalculated.

o used to define the observed present dayclimate with which climate change scenarioinformation is usually combined.

Definition of terms


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In general usage, it can be regarded as

any description of the future and the

pathway leading to it.However, a more specific interpretation has

been attached to the term "climate

projection"by the IPCC when referring to

model-derived estimates of future climate.

Definition of terms


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Climateprediction/forecast Climate projection

Definition of terms


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What are emission

scenarios?


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What is Climate Change Scenarios?


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Based on different plausiblepathways of future:

Development of the world

Population growth and

consumption patterns

Standards and life sTyphoonle ofliving

Energy consumption & energysources (e.g. fossil fuel usage)

Technology change

Land use change


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Storyline DescriptionA1 Very rapid economic growth; population peaks mid-century; social, cultural and

economic convergence among regions; market mechanisms dominate. Subdivisions:A1FIreliance on fossil fuels; A1Treliance on non-fossil fuels; A1Ba balance

across all fuel sources

A2 Self-reliance; preservation of local identities; continuously increasing population;economic growth on regional scales

B1 Clean and efficient technologies; reduction in material use; global solutions toeconomic, social and environmental sustainability; improved equity; population peaks

mid-centuryB2 Local solutions to sustainability; continuously increasing population at a lower rate

than in A2; less rapid technological change than in B1 and A1

The SRES Scenarios


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What are climate

models?


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Climate Models

1A.15


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Prepared by Elaine Barrow,CCIS Project

300km

50km

10km

1m

PointGlobal Climate Models supply...

Impact models require ...

Because there is a mismatch of scales between what climate models can

supply and what environmental impact models require.

What is downscaling and why do we need to

downscale?


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PRECIS stands for "Providing REgional

Climates forImpacts Studies."

PRECIS is based on the Hadley Centre's regional

climate modelling system.

PRECIS was developed in order to help generatehigh-resolution climate change information for as

many regions of the world as possible.

freely available to groups of developing countries inorder that they may develop climate change scenarios


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PRECIS resolution

0.44 x 0.44

HadCM3 resolution

2.5 x 3.75

GCM versus RCM


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Representation of the Philippines in different

model resolution

25 km 50 km 300 km


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Developing Climate

Projection for thePhilippines


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Global Model Used

United Kingdom model : HadCM3Q0resolution 2.5 x 3.75 downscaled to 0.22 x 0.22(25 km x 25 km)

A1B Medium-range emission scenario

German model ECHAM4

Resolution 2.8 x 2.8 downscaled to 0.22 x 0.22(25 km x 25 km)

A2 - High-range emission scenario


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PRECIS SIMULATION RUN IN PAGASA

Validation of the Observed and Simulated Seasonal


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Validation of the Observed and Simulated Seasonal

Mean (JJA) Rainfall (1971-2000)


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Validation of Results:

Validation of Observed and Simulated Baseline

Rainfall and Mean Temperature (1971 - 2000)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Months

Rainfall(MM)

15.00

17.00

19.00

21.00

23.0025.00

27.00

29.00

31.00

33.00

35.00

MeanTemperature(oC)

Observed Rainfall 1971 - 2000 Simulated by Model Rainfall 1971 - 2000

Observed Mean Temperature 1971 - 2000 Simulated by Model Mean Temperature 1971 - 2000


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Climate Projection for

the Philippines(2020,2050 & 2100)

Projected Change in annual mean temperature


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Projected Change in annual mean temperature

Medium-range Emission A1B Scenario


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Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Temperature

Key Findings

SEASONMedium-range Emission

Scenario

2020 2050

Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) 0.8 to 1.0 1.6 to 2.2

Mar-Apr-May (MAM) 0.9 to 1.3 2.0 to 2.5

Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA) 0.8 to 1.3 1.6 to 2.6

Sep-Oct-Nov (SON) 0.8 to 1.1 1.5 to 2.2

Warm months

becoming hotter



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Medium -range Scenario(A1B) for 2020 (black) and 2050 (red)

Season 2020 2050

DJF 0.8 to 1.0 1.6 to 2.2

MAM 0.8 to 1.3 2.0 to 2.5

JJA 0.8 to 1.3 1.6 to 2.6

SON 0.8 to 1.1 1.5 to 2.2

Greatest increase

2050

JJA VALUE

Surigao del

Norte 2.6

Agusan del

Norte 2.5

2020

MAM VALUE

Iloilo 1.3

North Cotabato 1.3

L

U

Z

V

I

S

M

I

N


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Example: How to use

Ilocos Norte DJF(2020) = 25.3 + 0.8 = 26.1

PROVINCES BASELINE OBSERVED

HIGH-RANGE EMISSION

SCENARIO

MEDIUM-RANGE

EMISSION SCENARIO

DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON

Region 1

ILOCOS NORTE 25.3 28.1 28.3 27.4 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9

ILOCOS SUR 23.1 25.7 25.4 24.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.0

LA UNION 20.5 22.9 22.8 22.2 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.7 1.0

PANGASINAN 25.0 27.4 26.9 26.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.0

Projected mean temperature increase (inC)

under high-range and medium-range emission scenarios in 2020

and observed baseline (1971-2000 )

Projected seasonal mean temperature (DJF) for Ilocos Norte in 2020 under a

medium range emission scenario is computed as:


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Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Rainfall(%)

Dry seasons

becoming drier.

Wet seasons

becoming wetter.

Medium-range Emission Scenario

2020 2050

Dec-Jan-Feb (DJF) -0.4 to 54.3 % -0.1 to-25.1-%

Mar-Apr-May (MAM) -0.2 to -33.3% -1.4 to -39.8%

Jun-Jul-Aug (JJA) -0.4 to 43.1% -0.7 to 72.5%

Sep-Oct-Nov (SON) -0.4 to 30.0% -0.5 to 39.0%

Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Rainfall


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Projected Change (%)

Season 2020 2050

DJF -26 to 54 -53.2 to 6

MAM -33 to 6 -23.2 to 18

JJA -9.3 to 36 -7.8 to 28.2

SON -6.0 to 23 -34.2 to 8.1

RAINFALL

2020

REDUCTION(%) INCREASE (%)

MAM DJF

NCR -33.3

PANGASINA

N 54.3

LAGUNA -31.5 ZAMBALES 34.2

RIZAL -30.7 JJA

ILOCOS SUR 36.3

2050

REDUCTION(%) INCREASE (%)

MAM JJA

RIZAL -39.8 ILOCOS SUR 58.1

NCR -38.5 BENGUET 63.1

AGUSAN

DEL NORTE -36.5

NUEVA

VIZCAYA 36.1

Projected Change in Seasonal Mean Rainfall

Medium -range Scenario for 2020 (black) and 2050 (red)

L

U

Z

V

I

S

M

I

N

Monthly Rainfall Projections for Medium-range emission


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0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

RainfallAmount(mm)

Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)

under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0

Davao

OBS

2020

2050

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0


RainfallAmount(mm)



Hinatuan

OBS

2020

2050

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0


RainfallAmount(mm)

Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0

Casiguran

OBS

2020

2050

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0

800.0

900.0


RainfallAmount(mm)



Dumaguete

OBS

2020

2050

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

1600.0


RainfallAmount(mm)

Projected Change in Monthly Average Rainfall (mm)under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0

Baguio

OBS

2020

2050

Monthly Rainfall Projections for Medium-range emission

scenario (A1B) By Climate Typhoonpe

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0


RainfallAmount(mm)


under A1B Scenario, HadCM3Q0Iloilo

OBS

2020

2050

Manila


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Manila

An increase of2.21 C from 1901-2010 (110 years)

y = 0.0201x + 26.513

25.0

25.5

26.0

26.5

27.0

27.5

28.0

28.5

29.0

29.5

30.0

1901

1906

1911

1916

1921

1926

1931

1936

1949

1954

1959

1964

1969

1974

1979

1984

1989

1994

1999

2004

2009

MeanTemperature(C)

YEAR

Annual Mean Temperature (C)Manila (1901 - 2010)

Annual Mean Temperature

5-year moving average

Linear (5-year moving average)

Manila


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Manila

1901-1930 1911-1940 1951-1980 1961-1990 1971-2000 1981-2010

Manila 26.9 27.2 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.3

26.0

26.5

27.0

27.5

28.0

28.5

TempearutreC

Comparison of the 30-years average of

MeanTemperature for Manila

Manila


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Manila

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1865

1870

1875

1880

1885

1890

1895

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

RainfallAmount(mm)

Rainfall Anomaly in ManilaPeriod: 1865-2010 (depature from 1971 to 2000 normal values)

Rainfall Anomaly (from 1971-2000)

5 yr moving ave

Linear (5 yr moving ave)


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Manila

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1901-1930 1911-1940 1951-1980 1961-1990 1971-2000 1981-2009

Comparison of 30 years Average Mean Rainfall for Manila


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JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

NORMAL 7100 19.0 7.9 11.1 21.4 165.2 265.0 423.2 486.0 330.7 270.9 129.6 75.3

Nuetral 14.1 9.1 14.4 19.8 152.8 265.5 382.0 494.7 335.3 223.7 111.5 56.6

EL NINO 15.4 5.8 4.4 5.3 101.5 226.5 576.1 429.8 375.9 169.7 89.3 47.8

LA NNA 21.8 13.8 15.8 39.1 187.1 313.4 293.3 430.6 389.4 276.7 175.4 89.2

0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

RainfallA

mount(mm)

Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Manila


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Climate Change Projection for Manila

Climate Change Projection for Port Area, Manila


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0.0

100.0

200.0

300.0

400.0

500.0

600.0

700.0


RainfallAmount

(mm)


under Medium-range Emission Scenario (A1B)

PortArea (Manila)

OBS

2020

2050

Climate Change Projection for Port Area, Manila


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Climate Projection forCagayan de Oro

Mean TemperatureCagayan de Oro


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25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32


DegreeCentigrad

e(C)

Projected Change in Monthly Average Mean Temperature (C)under Medium-range Emission Scenario (A1B)

Cagayan de Oro

OBS

2020

2050

g y

MonthMEAN

Projected Change

(%)

BIAS CORRECTED PROJ CHANGE

TMEANObserved1971-2000

2020 2050 1971-2000 2020 2050

Jan 26.7 1.1 2 26.7 27.8 28.7

Feb 26.8 1.2 2.3 26.8 28.0 29.1

Mar 27.4 1.1 2.5 27.4 28.5 29.9

Apr 28.3 1.5 2.8 28.3 29.8 31.1

May 29.1 1.4 2.5 29.1 30.5 31.6Jun 28.4 1.3 2.7 28.4 29.7 31.1

July 28.2 1.4 2.7 28.2 29.6 30.9

Aug 28.3 1.4 2.8 28.3 29.7 31.1

Sept 28.2 1.1 2.4 28.2 29.3 30.6

Oct 28.0 1.0 2.2 28.0 29.0 30.2

Nov 27.7 1.0 2.1 27.7 28.7 29.8

Dec 27.2 0.9 2.0 27.2 28.1 29.2


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0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0


RainfallAmount

(mm)


under Medium-range Emission Scenario (A1B)

Cagayan de Oro

OBSERVED BASELINE (1971-2000) 2020 (2006-2035) 2050 (2036-2065)


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IMPACTS OF CLIMATE

CHANGE


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What are the possible scenarios

The impacts on people will vary dependingwhere you live impacts could include:

Many people having to move to higher

ground, due to flooding

People having to be better prepared intropical cyclone-risk regions

Farmers having to adapt to changing growingseasons


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Hydromet Hazard and its impacts

Tropical CyclonesDamage and losses are due to:

- severe winds

- heavy /prolonged rainfall flooding/landslide/mudflow

- storm surge

- Tornado


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Tropical Cyclone Hazards and its impacts

Strong Winds

Storm Surge

Flooding due to heavy rainfall

Landslide/Mudflow

MAJOR CLIMATE CHANGE


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MAJOR CLIMATE CHANGE

SCENARIOS

Increased temperature Increased variability of monsoon

Increased risks of floods and droughts

Water-stressed conditions in areas with lessrainfall

Sea level rise

Climate surprises/shocks


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Impact to Biodiversity

Changes species distribution

Increases extinction rates Changes the reproduction timings

Changes length of growing seasons for plant

Global warming:


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Climate Change Drives Species to

Extinction

Some first know victims of climate change

i. Golden toad

ii. Monteverde harlequin frog

Many more predicted to follow suite due to

current rate of temperature increase

Above +2C impacts will be large


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1C 2C 5C4C3C

Sea level rise

threatens major cities

Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly

developing regions

Food

Water

Ecosystems

Risk of Abrupt and

Major Irreversible

Changes

0C

Falling yields in many

developed regions

Rising number of species face extinction

Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and

abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system

Significant decreases in water

availability in many areas, including

Mediterranean and Southern Africa

Small mountain glaciers

disappear water

supplies threatened inseveral areas

Extensive Damage

to Coral Reefs

ExtremeWeather EventsRising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves

Possible rising yields in

some high latitude regions

p g

How climate information accessed from PAGASA utilized


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How climate information accessed from PAGASA utilized

DRR/CCA

The baseline climate information andclimate projections can be used as initial datain identifying current and future climate risk in

the water and agriculture sector .

Seasonal Climate Forecast which is beingissued on a monthly basis can be used forplanning especially when there is extremeclimate events. (i.e. El Nio/La Nia).

What questions do we now need to consider?


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What questions do we now need to consider?

Do you know what impact climate change could have on

your area? Do your current policies, strategies and plans include

provision for the impacts of climate change?

Can you identify and assess the risks from climate change toyour services?

Are developments with a lifetime of more than 20 yearsrequired to factor in climate change?

Are you addressing climate change in your local CommunityStrategy?

Do you consider climate risk in your decision-making ?


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Observations/Monitoring

national

climate service

Research, Modeling

& Assessments

Early Warning & Risk Management

Adaptation & Mitigation

Academe (UP, MO )

EFCOS ASTI

PAGASA

DA DPWHInternational communities

IPCC, NCAR, CSIRO,

Waterlinks


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In conclusion, all activities by the DOST, in

general, and the PAGASA in particular, are

geared towards reducing risks and building

resilient communities against a backdrop of

changing climate.


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Tracking the skyhelping the country


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Key Findings

In the Philippines, there already are trends of

increasing number of hot days and warmnights, but decreasing number of cold daysand cool nights. Both maximum and minimumtemperatures are generally getting warmer;

Other extreme weather/climate events,Tropical Storm like intense rains have beenseen to be more frequent;

The trend in the number tropical cyclones

greater than 150 is found to be morefrequent during El Nio events.


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Key Findings(continuation)TEMPERATURE

In the Philippines, there already are trends of increasingnumber of hot days and warm nights, but decreasingnumber of cold days and cool nights. Both maximumand minimum temperatures are generally gettingwarmer;

There has been an increase in the observed mean

annual temperature by 0.64C from 1951-2010 and isprojected to increase by an average 1C by 2020;

The rate increase in 2035 is projected to be much fasterthan the rate of increase during the last 60 years;

. All areas of the Philippines will get warmer, more so in

the relatively warmer summer months; Annual mean temperatures (average of maximum and

minimum temperatures) in all areas in the country areexpected to rise by 0.9 C to 1.1 C in 2020 and by 1.8 Cto 2.2 C in 2050.


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2. Rainfall

Reduction in rainfall in most provinces during thesummer season (MAM) making the usually dryseason drier , while

Rainfall increases are likely in most areas of Luzonand Visayas during the southwest monsoon (JJA)and the SON seasons, making these seasons stillwetter, and thus with likelihood of both droughtsand floods in areas where these are projected;

Drier season becoming drier and wetter seasonbecoming wetter and greater with time in 2020 &2050.

Key Findings (continuation)

KEY FINDINGS (continuation)


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3. Extreme events

Projections for extreme events in 2020 and2050 show that:

Hot temperatures (indicated by the numberof days with maximum temperature

exceeding 35C) will continue to becomemore frequent.;

Number of dry days (days with less than2.5mm of rain) will increase in all parts of thecountry and

heavy daily rainfall (exceeding 300mm)events will also continue to increase innumber in Luzon and Visayas.

KEY FINDINGS (continuation)

Module 4_Climate Change 2

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