Modelling Water Yield, Sedimentation, and Flood Dynamics in 2 sub‐basins of the Volta Basin
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Transcript of Modelling Water Yield, Sedimentation, and Flood Dynamics in 2 sub‐basins of the Volta Basin
Modelling Water Yield, Sedimentation, and Flood Dynamics in 2 sub‐basins of the Volta Basin
Emmanuel Obuobie, Fred Kizito, Christophe Le Page and Jean Philippe Venot
Location and background
Social aspects of IWRM‐ Tool: Companion modeling‐ Methodology: Stakeholders identify a collective challenge and use
conceptual frameworks to identify their systems in a play fashion ‐ Collective identification of social and ecological dynamics‐ Outcome: Identification of a shared representation of issues at stake
(actors, resources, dynamics and relationships) through local stakeholder consultation
Conceptual System setup
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Flood vulnerability and land use planning
Modeling Water/Sediment Yields‐ Study catchment in Ghana (Zebilla: 1,695 km2) ‐‐ Modeling conducted to include
upstream inputs to‐ and downstream sinks from study area
Model Calibration and Validation
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Calibration results for Yakala
R2=0.72NSE=0.68PBIAS= 12.6%
R2=0.84NSE=0.77PBIAS= 6.3%
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1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985An
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ater Yield (m
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Simulated Measured
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janv.‐80 janv.‐81 janv.‐82 janv.‐83 janv.‐84 janv.‐85
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ater Yield (m
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Calibration Years
Simulated Measured
Conditions for successful calib.R2 > 0.6NSE > 0.50 PBIAS is + 25%(Santhi et al., 2001; Moriasi et al., 2007)
Model Calibration and Validation
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R2=0.82NSE=0.78PBIAS= 15.5%
R2=0.83NSE=0.82PBIAS= 4.4%
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ater Yield (m
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Simulated Measured
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thly Total W
ater Yield (m
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Calibration and validation results for Nawuni
Key water Yield ResultsMethodology: Simulated discharge in ‘cms’ was converted to ‘cmy’Outcome: Estimate of water fluxes that can be imported into WEAP for allocation to the different water users in the basinMean annual water yield: 1.4 Billion m3 of which 0.16 Billion m3 is generated within the basin. The remaining 90% is generated upstream of the basin.
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1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001
Annu
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ater Yield (M
m3)
Zebila water yield Total water yield
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ater Yield (M
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Sediment Yield Estimation‐ Methodology: Empirical relationship between water discharge and sediment
concentration yields sediment discharge.‐ Sediment discharge is used to simulate and calibrate sediment transport (t/day)
in the catchment; yield is computed as a function of study area t/ha‐ Outcome: Estimate of sediment yields permits scenarios for interventions to
mitigate problem e.g. grass strips
Calibration and validation Results for Nawuni
Sediment Yield Estimation
‐ Average annual sediment yield for Zebila catchment: 3.4 t/ha/yr
‐ Sediment yield by land use type: Cropland/woodland, Savanna
Land use Cropland/woodland Savanna
Sediment (t/ha/yr) 4.7 2.1
Contribution to sedimentation (%) 69 31
‐ Average sediment yield in reservoirs in Zebila catchment: 0.012 t/ha/yr (2035 t/yr)
‐ Global average sediment yield: 15 t/ha/yr
‐ Average for Africa: 9 t/ha/yr
GEO‐SFM ModelFlood Hazard Assessment
HydrographSmall reservoirs
Characterizing Flood Risk
Generate DailyHistorical Rainfall
(1961-2003) by reanalysis
Produce a synthetic
streamflow record
Compute Bankfull storage
Determine locations where bankfull storage
Is exceeded
?
Next Steps
o Conduct data processing module, water balance routines and flow routing modules
o Generate flood hazard map
Flood modeling
Sediment modelingo Model scenarios of interventions e.g., introducing grass
strips to ascertain impacts on erosion and sedimentation
Concluding Remarks
‐ Modeling tools are useful for studying sedimentation/erosion and flooding dynamics within the framework of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM)
‐ Estimates indicate that 90% of the sub‐basin water resources are from upstream sources which signifies implications for upstream‐downstream collaboration on IWRM issues
‐ Sedimentation control through interventions ensures that:‐ Reservoirs are not subjected to uncontrollable siltation levels ‐ Storage capacity of reservoirs is lengthened and they are used
more productively which‐ Enhances community water provision and livelihoods in the Basin
Concluding Remarks‐ 2
‐ Flood hazard modeling is far advanced. When completed the generated hazard maps will inform decision making regarding land use planning in the study catchment. This will help reduce vulnerability to flooding disasters.
‐ Results from sedimentation and flood modeling feed into multi‐stakeholder platform for policy and IWRM interventions
Thank you