Modelling the mortality of Hylotrupes bajulus (L.) larvae ... · Observation N°1: Large number of...
Transcript of Modelling the mortality of Hylotrupes bajulus (L.) larvae ... · Observation N°1: Large number of...
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UCL
Modelling the mortality of Hylotrupes
bajulus (L.) larvae exposed to anoxic
treatment for disinfestation of wooden art
objects
Géraud de Streel, Jean-Marc Henin, Patrick Bogaert,
Emmanuelle Mercier, Erika Rabelo, Caroline Vincke, Benoît Jourez
SERVICE PUBLIC DE WALLONIE
ROYAL INSTITUTE FOR CULTURAL HERITAGE
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Motivation
Efficient use of anoxic treatment requires a protocol that:
• Indicates the treatment duration for insect eradication
• Takes into account all the variables influencing mortality
1
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State of the art
Large number of studies on the topic
2
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State of the art
Large number of studies on the topic
Observation N°1: Large number of treatment conditions involved
• Treatment efficiency dependent on :
- Temperature1
1 Valentin N (1998) Preservation of historic materials by using inert gases for biodeterioration control. In
Maekawa S (ed) Oxygen-free museum cases. The Getty Conservation Institute, Los Angeles 2
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2 Reierson DA, Rust MK, Kennedy JM, Daniel V, Maekawa S (1996) Enhancing the effectiveness of
modified atmospheres to control insect pests in museums and similar sensitive areas. In: Proceedings of
the 2nd international conference on urban pests, pp 319-327
State of the art
Large number of studies on the topic
Observation N°1: Large number of treatment conditions involved
• Treatment efficiency dependent on :
- Temperature
- Insect2 : species;
development stage;
body mass;
etc.
2
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State of the art
Large number of studies on the topic
Observation N°1: Large number of treatment conditions involved
• Treatment efficiency dependent on :
- Temperature
- Insect
- Nature of the Gas3
3 Valentin N (1993) Comparative analysis of insect control by nitrogen, argon and carbon dioxide in
museum, archive and herbarium collections. Int Biodeterior Biodegradation 32:263-278
Argon Nitrogen
2
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State of the art
Large number of studies on the topic
Observation N°1: Large number of treatment conditions involved
• Treatment efficiency dependent on :
- Temperature
- Insect
- Nature of the Gas
…
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State of the art
Large number of studies on the topic
Observation N°1:
• Large number of treatment conditions involved
Observation N°2:
• Studies using one specific insect population
2
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2
Physical and statistical difficulties to
treatment applicability
State of the art
Large number of studies on the topic
Observation N°1:
• Large number of treatment conditions involved
Observation N°2:
• Studies using one specific insect population
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Objective
Building a model
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Objective
Building a model
• Taking into account:
3
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Objective
Building a model
• Taking into account:
o Variables with high influence on mortality
3
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Objective
Building a model
• Taking into account:
o Variables with high influence on mortality
o Biological heterogeneity
3
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Objective
Building a model
• Taking into account:
o Variables with high influence on mortality
o Biological heterogeneity
• Allowing to determine treatment duration required to
achieve insect eradication
3
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Outline
• Motivation
• State of the art
• Objectives
• Model design
- Variables
- Output
- Construction
• Results
• Conclusion
4
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Model design - Variables
• Temperature:
20°C, 30°C and 40°C
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Model design - Variables
• Temperature:
20°C, 30°C and 40°C
• Treatment duration:
0.5 to 25 days
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Model design - Variables
• Temperature:
20°C, 30°C and 40°C
• Treatment duration:
0.5 to 25 days
• Environment:Petri dish or wood board
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Model design - Variables
• Temperature:
20°C, 30°C and 40°C
• Treatment duration:
0.5 to 25 days
• Environment:Petri dish or wood board
• Insect:
Larvae of Hylotrupes bajulus (L.)
(old house borer)
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Model design - Variables
• Temperature:
20°C, 30°C and 40°C
• Treatment duration:
0.5 to 25 days
• Environment:Petri dish or wood board
• Insect:
Larvae of Hylotrupes bajulus (L.)
• Initial mass of the insect: 32 to 638 mg(μ= 176.14 ± 116.73)
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Model design – Output/model
• Model:
ln𝑝 1 𝑋
1−𝑝 1 𝑋= 𝑎0 + 𝑎1𝐷 + 𝑎2𝑥1 + …+ 𝑎𝑗𝑥𝑗
p(1|X): mortality probability
D: treatment duration
4 FAO (2011) ISPM 15:2009 draft revision of annex 1: approved treatments associated with wood
packaging material. Food and Agriculture organization of the United Nations, Secretariat of the
International Plant Protection Convention, Rome 6
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Model design – Output/model
• Model:
ln𝑝 1 𝑋
1−𝑝 1 𝑋= 𝑎0 + 𝑎1𝐷 + 𝑎2𝑥1 + …+ 𝑎𝑗𝑥𝑗
p(1|X): mortality probability
D: treatment duration
• Mortlity probability target: 99.9968%
Probit 9 level
International Standard for
Phytosanitary Measures4
=
4 FAO (2011) ISPM 15:2009 draft revision of annex 1: approved treatments associated with wood
packaging material. Food and Agriculture organization of the United Nations, Secretariat of the
International Plant Protection Convention, Rome 6
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Model design – Construction
• Independant analysis of each variable
Significant effect Non-significant effect
Temperature (T) Environment (E)
Treatment duration (D)
Insect inital mass (M)
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Model design – Construction
• Independant analysis of each variable
• Models comparison
Significant effect Non-significant effect
Temperature (T) Environment (E)
Treatment duration (D)
Insect inital mass (M)
Full model
Simplified model 1
Simplified model 2
M x x xD x x xT x x xE x x
M*D xM*T xD*T x x xM*E xD*E x xT*E x x
M*D*T xM*D*E xM*T*E xD*T*E x x
M*D*T*E x
7
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Outline
• Motivation
• State of the art
• Objectives
• Model design
- Variables
- Output
- Construction
• Results
• Conclusion
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ln𝜋
1 − 𝜋= exp(−24.703 − 0.005 ×𝑀 + 0.935 × 𝐷 + 0.676 × 𝑇 + 0.029 × (𝐷 − 8.553) × (𝑇 − 31.722))
Initial
massTreatment
duration Temperature
Results
Selected model (simplified model 2):
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Studies Temperature [°C] Treatment duration [days]
Valentin, 19985
203040
1991
Gunn, 20086 25 14
Gialdi & Ratto, 20027 2520
2128/35
de Streel et al., 20168
213040
362112
ResultsComparison with other studies:
5 Valentin N (1998) Preservation of historic materials by using inert gases for biodeterioration control. In: Maekawa s (ed)
Oxygen-free Museum cases. The Getty Conservation Institute, Los Angeles6 Gunn M (1989) Inert atmosphere fumigation of museum objects. Stud Conserv 32(2):80-847 Gialdi E, Ratto L (2002) The SAVE ART project and its outcome: VELOXY. Cultural Heritage Research: a pan-European
Challenge, 207-2098 De Streel, G., Henin, J.-M., Bogaert, P., Mercier, E., Rabelo, E., Vincke, C., Jourez, B. Modelling the mortality of Hylotrupes
bajulus (L.) larvae exposed to anoxic treatment for disinfestation of wooden art objects, Wood Science and Technology, 2016, 50(5),
1015-103510
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ResultsMortality map
0.97
0.99
0.999968
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Results
• Mortality assessment after treatment:
12
Alive Dead
Mandibles activity ++ -
Body color White Brown
« Turgescence » Turgid Withered
Movements when stimulated ++ -
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Results
Clear-cut cases
Intermediate
situation
?
back into wood boards
LivingDead
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Results
Before transplanting After transplanting
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Outline
• Motivation
• State of the art
• Objectives
• Model design
- Variables
- Output/model
- Construction
• Results
• Conclusion
15
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Conclusion
• Effect of initial body mass on mortality
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Conclusion
• Effect of initial body mass on mortality
• No visible effect of environment on sensitivity to treatment
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Conclusion
• Effect of initial body mass on mortality
• No visible effect of environment on sensitivity to treatment
• Interest of modelling to define the modalities for anoxic treatment
16
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Conclusion
• Effect of initial body mass on mortality
• No visible effect of environment on sensitivity to treatment
• Interest of modelling to define the modalities for anoxic treatment
• Existence of a « mortally affected » state
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Conclusion
• Effect of initial body mass on mortality
• No visible effect of environment on sensitivity to treatment
• Interest of modelling to define the modalities for anoxic treatment
• Existence of a « mortally affected » state
• Perspectives
- Specific analysis of the « mortally affected » state
- Check of the predictive power of the model
- Testing the relevance of other variables
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Thank you!
Any questions?