Modelling the effect of climate change on environmental pollution losses from UK dairy systems
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Transcript of Modelling the effect of climate change on environmental pollution losses from UK dairy systems
Email: [email protected]://www.land-ghg.net/
Del Prado, A.1; ; Shepherd, A.2; Wu, L.2,3, Topp, C.3, Moran, D.3, Tolkamp, B.3, Gallejones P.1, Chadwick, D.R.2
1) BC3-Basque Centre For Climate Change (Spain) 2) Rothamstead Res., North Wyke (UK) 3) SAC Research, Edinburgh, (UK)
Modelling the effect of climate change on environmental pollution losses from UK dairy systems
Edinburgh, 15-04-2011Funded by(AC0307)
• Climate change affects crop productivity
• But climate directly affects nutrient cycling (eg. N, C) also and therefore environmental losses [NO3
- leaching, NH3, N2O, NOx, CH4].
Changes in NUE in plants and animals may also affect indirectly environmental losses
INTRODUCTION
http://www.ecn.nl/units/bkm/environmental-research/air-quality-and-climate-change/integral-nitrogen-theme/the-nitrogen-cascade/
• The objective of this study is to analyse the potential impacts of climate change per se on pollution losses from dairy systems in Britain.
MAIN OBJECTIVE
CLIMATE CHANGE IN BRITAINAnnual precipitation (medium)
2070-2099
Source: http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk/
CLIMATE CHANGE IN BRITAIN
Summer mean temp (medium) winter mean temp (medium)
2070-2099 2070-2099
Source: http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk/
CLIMATE CHANGE IN BRITAIN
An example of the effect on crop productivity-related variable (e.g. growing season)
INTEGRATED MODELLING APPROACH
LOCATIONFARM TYPOLOGIES
Modelling grassland prod.
• Dates of cuts• DM yield• Digestibility• Crude protein
Pollution/ha /Lmilk(impacts)
NW
FARM
Modified version
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Day number
Soil
moi
stur
e, m
m/m
m
Meas'd soil msim'd soil m
New soil-water balance submodel
UKCIP02-baseline, 2020s, 2050s, 2080s(50 years of each time slice)
SITE ASUMPTIONS
Regions Typical soil type
EE: East England Clay Loam
EM: East Midlands Loam
NE: North East Clay Loam
NW: North West Clay Loam
SC: Scotland Clay Loam
SE: South East Clay Loam
SW: South West Clay Loam
WA: Wales Loam
WM: West Midlands Clay Loam
YH: Yorkshire and Humberside Clay Loam
Typical soil types associated to dairy livestock systems in 10 regions of the UK
SW SE
WMEM
EE
NW
YH
NE
WA
SC
Simulates the effect of management x genetics x soil x climate on
Optimisationfarm scale (holistic)GHG: includes pre-farm gate GHG Time-step: monthlyIncorporates maize, clover and grass as posible
forages to growSemi process-based
CharacteristicsCharacteristics
N and P flows, transformations & losses in the soil-plant-animal
Losses of CH4
Animal performance & needsFarm economicsOther atributes of sustainability
Rothamsted+ ADAS + Reading U.+ Exeter U. + ALTERRA
Full description original version:Del Prado et al., (in review)
RESULTS: CHANGES IN GRASS PRODUCTIVITY
SW SE
WMEM
EE
NWYH
NE
WA
SC
•In general, CC increased plant biomass production and grazing potential season•Large increase in WA and EM•Lowest increase in SE and SW (in decline in 2080s:drier growing season)
•In general: changes Due to increase in light intensity, balance between greater temperatures but some smaller rainfall
RESULTS: CHANGES IN PRODUCTIVITY (MILK)
SW SE
WMEM
EE
NWYH
NE
WA
SC
RESULTS: CHANGES IN N2O LOSSES PER L OF MILK
SWSE
WM
EM
EE
NW
YH
NE
WA
SC
General decrease
ExceptionsWA (-2020s)NW (-2050)YH (-2080)NE (from 2050)SC (from 2080)
RESULTS: CHANGES IN N2O LOSSES (EXAMPLES)
SW SE
WMEM
EE
NWYH
NE
WA
SCSC
EE
SW
RESULTS: CHANGES IN NOx LOSSES
SWSE
WM
EM
EE
NW
YH
NE
WA
SC
General increase: SW, WA (-2080s), WM, EM, EE, NW (-2050), YH (-2080), NE (from 2050), SC (from 2080)
N2O* NOx
SW SEWAWMEMEENWYHNESC
PS
PS
PS
*N2O does not increase for all time-slices
RESULTS: CHANGES IN NH3 LOSSES/L MILK
Very Variable
EE SW
SC
SW SE
WMEM
EE
NW
YH
NE
WA
SC
RESULTS: CHANGES IN NO3 LEACHING LOSSES
SW SE
WMEM
EE
NW
YH
NE
WA
SC
General increase (no increase in WM, EE) and very variable:
EE
SW
EM
RESULTS: CHANGES IN NO3 LEACHING LOSSES
Example of variability of distribution for leaching: EE
RESULTS: LOOKING AT THE WHOLE PICTURE
Poorer values are represented outside blue shape
Conclusions
•Climate change affects pollution losses from dairy farms
•Productivity increases and affects positively emissions expressed per unit of product
•Some emissions will however increase due to changes in processes related to N and C cycles (NOx, NO3 leaching).
• Some losses have large variability due to climate change variability per se (NO3 leaching).
•GHG will remain unchanged/decreased as a result of an increase in CH4 and a decrease in N2O emissions.
Soil quality and biodiversity may be affected too