Modelling PNZ
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Development and use of national transport model in Slovenia
Gregor Pretnar
CETRA
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Presentation
• background• historical development and current status• features• use of model CETRA
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About• established in 1953, located in Ljubljana• cca. 50 employees, four departments• 4‐5 mio € yearly turnover• owned by employees (present and past)• leading transport planner and designer in Slovenia
50‘ 60‘ 70‘ 80‘ 90‘ 00‘ 10‘
beginning
design of first highway in Yugoslavia
first transport studies
National Highway Development Plan
traffic studies abroad
transport model of wider Ljubljana region
national model of Slovenia
feasibility study for new railway
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Planning referencesTranseuropean model TRANS-TOOLS (2011)
National model of Slovenia PRIMOS (2011)
CETRA model (2013)
Danube bridge and tunnel, Novi Sad (2009)
Sava bridge, Belgrade (2007)
Enlargment of ring road, Ljubljana (2009)
Masterplan, Belgrade (2008)
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Role and function of models
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Properties and use of national model• includes complete population and area of country,• enables interactive modelling of land use and transport,• determines individuals’ behaviour and decisions how, where, when, with which
mode to travel and to transport• is a tool for forecasts and analyses of effects of different policies and measures,• enables modelling effects of tolling, congestion charge, pollution charge (with
purpose of cost internalization), parking policies• integrated modelling of external costs (noise, air, accidents)• presents frame for demand modelling on detailed regional and local levels,• represents large database• enables broad array of detailed analyses
• no use of growth factors for transport
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History and development• 2004‐2011 National transport model of Slovenia ‐ PRIMOS
– contracted by National Road Agency– 4‐step transport multimodal transport model (3‐step road freight model)– submodels for external costs (noise, accidents, gas emissions)– audit
• 2005‐2007 Multimodal transport model of wider Ljubljana region– household survey (2003)– 4‐step transport model (including 3‐step road freight model)
• 2012‐> Central European TRAnsport model CETRA– developed within and for project „Feasibility study for new railway connection
Divača‐Ljubljana‐Zidani Most“– major overhaul and upgrade of existing PRIMOS model
• inclusion of 23 countries• development of 5‐step freight model (rail, road, ferry mode)• development of impedance function for frequency of public transport
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Features
• data collection• network• methods• validation
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Data
• behaviour data• socioeconomic data• international trade data• count data
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• mobility rate and modal split ‐> household and other surveys– Household survey Ljubljana (2003) revealed preference– Stated preference survey for value of time (2007) and PuT quality (2009, 2012)– Mobilitat in Deutschland (2008)– Dateline (2003)– Eurostat– others
• motorization rate (submodel)– statistical data (STAT ‐ Slovenian statistical office)
Behaviour data
y = 0,0173x + 1,3084
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0,50
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mobility rate (trips per person per day)
GDP (purchase power parity, EU27=100)
Correlation mobility/GDP (EU27=100)
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• population– STAT– Central Registry (number of people by house numbers)– EUROSTAT– national statistical offices (AT, IT, HU, HR)
• labour market– STAT (+ additional survey for exact locations)– EUROSTAT (NUTS3 level)
• other– shop floor area– school places– tourism capacities
Socioeconomic data
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Economy and international trade data
• national production and consumption by commodities• STAT• FAOSTAT• dissagregation to zones based on number of working places by sectors
• international trade• COMEXT (EU countries)• UN Comtrade (other modelled countries)
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Count data
• road transport– national road authorities and motorway operators (SI, IT, AT, HU, HR)
• public transport– passenger count on buses on major cross‐sections and regional centres in
Slovenia (2012)– passenger count on all railway sections and station (Slovenian Railways, 2012)
• rail freight transport– aggregated data for freight transport (STAT)– number of netto tonnes and trains per section per year (Slovenian Railways;
2008, 2011)– Austrian National model Verkehr 2025+ (2005, 2015, 2025)– Transport Pocketbook 2012 (EU)
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Modelling area of CETRA model
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Network
• road transport– existing Slovenian road network (BCP, Navteq)
• all national roads are included
– foreign network for 22 countries (Open Street Map)
• public transport– complete bus and railway system in Slovenia (lines, timetable)– railway connections between foreign zones (DB Journey Planner)
• rail transport– www.bueker.net.
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Main submodels of CETRA model
• development of macroscopic 4‐step model for passenger and 5‐step for freight transport
• development, calibration and validation of motorization model
• models for external costs
GENERAL PROCEDURES– zoning– network modeling– development of demand– development od
assignment– calibration of all modes– validation according to
international guidelines
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• development, calibration and validation of macroscopic 4‐step model for passenger transport
Passenger model
Oi
Dj
Tij
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• for 23 countries• generation: 13 origin‐destination groups
– each group has own relevant person making trip (e.g. employee) and relevant attraction (e.g. working place)
• simultaneous distribution and mode choice (EVA method)• assignment
– road transport (Equilibrium Lohse)– public transport (Timetable)
Passenger transport model
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– number car trips– parking cost and availability in Slovenia– park&ride (P+R) trips in Slovenia– generalized cost [min] = a*journey time [min] + b*distance [km]+c*toll
[€]
Private transport model
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100upor w
verje
tnos
t izb
ire F
(w)
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– lines– stop points (interchange)– timetable assignment– generalized cost [min] = a*journey time [min] + fare[€]
• including discomfort impedance in Slovenia
Public transport model
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Freight model for 23 countries
• development, calibration and validation of 5‐step for freight transport
• focus on Slovenia• multimodal network
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Freight model
• 56 commodities• aggregation for
analysis, e.g. 9 main groups of freight
ID Commodity type logistics modelled
1 Living Animals
agriculture
fresh food Yes2 Cereals bulk: food+fodder Yes3 Potatoes fresh food Yes4 Pulses bagged cargo Yes5 Vegetables fresh food Yes6 Sugar Beet bulk: food+fodder Yes7 Fruits fresh food Yes8 Oli Crops bulk: food+fodder Yes9 Cotton bulk: food+fodder Yes
10 Meat
food and beverage
fresh food Yes11 Vegetable Oil fluid: food Yes12 Food Products bagged cargo Yes
13 Luxury Food Products bagged cargo Yes
14 Raw Wood
Wood
bulk: raw materials Yes
15 Processed Wood bulk: constructionmaterials Yes
16 Wood Products container Yes17 Paper container Yes18 Paper Pulp bulk: raw materials Yes... ... ... ... ...
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Logistic Systems
• commodities with the same characteristics regarding physical conditions and transportability are allocated to one of the 11 logistic systems
• different sets of transport costs for each logistic system
a fluid: crude oilb fluid: oil productsc fluid: foodd bulk: raw materialse bulk: construction materialsf bulk: food+fodderg bagged cargoh containeri special truckj fresh foodk natural gas
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Transport costs )()( hkmfixij CTimeCLengthCw
Distance Costs (Commodity) = Distance Costs (Log. Sys.)Distance Costs in [€/km]‐> (Attribute cost_km of links and connectors)
Time Costs (Commodity) = Time Costs (Log. Sys.)+ Unit * Interest costs (Commodity) + Unit * Loss of Value (Commodity)Time Costs in [€/h] ‐> (Attribute cost_h of links and connectors)
Start Costs (Commodity) = Loading at origin (Log. Sys.) + loss ratio (Log. Sys.) * Value (Commodity) * Unit+ time for un/loading (Log Sys) * Interest costs (Commodity) * Unit+ time for un/loading (Log Sys) * Loss of Value (Commodity) * UnitStart Costs in [€] ‐> (Attribute cost_fixed of origin connectors)
End Costs (Commodity) = Unloading at destination (Log. Sys.)+loss ratio (Log. Sys.) * Value (Commodity) * Unit+ time for un/loading (Log Sys) * Interest costs (Commodity) * Unit+ time for un/loading (Log Sys) * Loss of Value (Commodity) * UnitEnd Costs in [€] ‐> (Attribute cost_fixed of destination connectors)
TRANSSHIPMENT COSTS =COST_FIXED (Transshipment link)+ loss ratio (Log. Sys.) * Value (Commodity) * 1/2 (because of two links per transshipment)+ idle time (transhipment link) * Interest costs (Commodity)+ idle time (transhipment link) * Loss of Value (Commodity)
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Freight Generation
Detailed approaches for different types of goodsProduction onNational level
Consumption onNational level
Production perTraffic zone
Consumption perTraffic zone
Type I:AgricultureProducts/food
1.National
Productionfrom
statistics
2.National
consumptionfrom balancecondition
3.Break down
to zone level by number of livestock/field area
4.Break down
to zones by population/food industry
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Freight Distribution
A. impedance matrices: • function of link (considering transport costs)• additional: different types of border crossings
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Freight Distribution
B. distribution function: gravity model in Slovenia• different functions for each commodity
results of distribution: • origin‐destination matrices for each commodity• tonnes flows between zones for each commodity
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Assignment
combination of • mode choice (traditionally step 3 of transport model)• route choice (traditionally step 4 of transport model)• additional 5th step ‐> creation of subnetworks and joint
assignment of heavy goods vehicles with cars• most cost efficient route and transport mode chosen
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Assignment Results of assignment: • origin, destination, mode and route for each commodity• transport volumes on all links of the network by commodity• total flows on all links
Basis for further analyses:• desire lines• selected link analysis• modal split
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Validation results
• passenger model• freight model
– tonnes per year– number of trains– heavy goods vehicle validation
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Freight model (road&rail)
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Number of trains per day
indicator correlation total difference
netto tonnes/year 0,97 <1%
freight trains/year 0,95 ‐12%
freight trains/day 0,93 ‐12%
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Number of road goods vehicles per daycriteria LGV (Slovenia) HGV (CETRA)RMSE 0,809 0,346transport work ‐2.9% ‐0,3%correlation 0,860 0,985number of sections with GEH <5 83% 95%average GEH 2,97 1,50standard deviation [vehicles] 347 171number of sections 1.002 906
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Road transport (all vehicles per day)criteria vehiclesRMSE 0,299transport work 0,2%correlation 0,970
number of sections with GEH <5 66,4%average GEH 4,62standard deviation [vehicles] 1.456number of sections 1.002
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Public passenger traffic
Mod
el a
ttrib
ute
(Vol
Per
sPuT
(AP
))
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• development of models for traffic accident prediction, gas(CO2, NOx,…) and noise imissions
Models for external costs
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Railway operation model
• rail infrastructure and equipment modelling• timetable modelling• microscopic simulation
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• relevant forecast measures– large scale infrastructure measures, e.g. road, rail– improvement of border crossings
• CETRA projects (23 countries)– major infrastructure measures (e.g. Koralm bahn)
• additional national projects– projects currently under construction or planning with relevance
for the model (e.g. Koper‐Divača)
Network updates for forecast
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• population development– population on national level for 2020 and 2030– source: EUROPOP 2008, UN
• economic Development– GDP growth until 2030– economical development (value added by sectors)
– ‐> elasticity for international trade– ‐> study PRIMES
Socio economic data forecast
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Practical of use of model CETRA (PRIMOS)• baseline scenario• 3 scenarios• results
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Balanced scenario (road network)
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Balanced scenario (public transport)
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Forecast of transport conditions
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Traffic volumes
road volumes, average working day, year 2030, balanced scenario
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Traffic volumes
passengers on public transport, average working day, year 2030, balanced scenario
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Accessibility
accessibility to major cities with public transport, average working day, year 2008
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External costs (noise, air, accidents)
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tourist peak, year 2030, scenario of enhanced role of public transport
Capacity analysis
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Development and use of national transport model in Slovenia
Gregor Pretnar, M.S.CE ([email protected])
CETRA