Markus Venohr & Mathias Gadegast

Modelling nutrient input to Central European surface waters in the 1880s to estimate reference

conditions using the model MONERIS

International Workshop on Estimation of nitrogen loads to the marine

environment around the time of the year 1900

14-15 November 2016

The Sandbjerg Estate – Aarhus University’s Conference Centre, Sønderborg, Denmark

Gadegast &Venohr (in prep): Estimation of nutrient input to Central European surface waters around the 1880s period. Gadegast &Venohr (2015): „Modellierung historischer Nährstoffeinträge und -frachten zur Ableitung von Nährstoffreferenz- und Orientierungswerten für mitteleuropäische Flussgebiete“, Report. Gadegast, Hirt &Venohr (2014): Changes in Waste Water Disposal for Central European River Catchments and Its Nutrient Impacts on SurfaceWaters for the Period 1878–1939, DOI 10.1007/s11270-014-1914-0. Hirt, Mahnkopf, Czudowski, Heidecke & Venohr (2013): Reference conditions for rivers of the German Baltic Sea catchment: reconstructing nutrient regimes using the model MONERIS, doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0559-7. Gadegast, Hirt, Opitz &Venohr (2012): Modelling changes in nitrogen emissions into the Oder River System 1875–1944, DOI 10.1007/s10113-011-0270-5. Dinh (2008): Long-term development of nutrient loads in Berlin surface water system and their causes during the last 150 years, PhD-thesis conducted at IGB.

Sources

Central Europe 1880 – country borders

• Modelling is based on the latest Germany wide application of

MONERIS (Venohr et al. 2011) conducted for the German

environmental protection agency (UBA) (Venohr et al. 2014)

• Available input data on conditions around 1880 were adapted

and considerd in the modelling

• Databasis: administrative statistics 1878 and reconstruction of

historical conditions based on scattered data from

reports/publicatins

Modelling approach

Data type 1880 1983-2010

Hydrology

(precipitation, run-off,

water temperature)

1983-2010

PP:GPCC, run-off and water temperature

from federal monitoring

Nitrogen surplus Administrative statistical year books

1878

2007

(Bach et al. 2012)

Atmospheric deposition EMEP (1998)

Schöpp et al. (2003)

EMEP (2010)

Land-use Stat. year book 1878 CORINE

Drainage of agricultural

land Luedecke (1917),

Zunker (1929) Behrendt et al.

(1999)

Inhbaitants, collection &

treatment of waste

water

Stat. year book (1878)

Salomon (1907),

Brix et al. (1934)

EEA (2001)

FDZ (2007)

Major input data considered

Landnutzung

1880 2010

arable

%

grass

%

forest

%

urban

%

arable

%

grass

%

forest

%

urban

%

Eider 54 36 4 1 44 40 4 4

Elbe 52 16 26 3 51 9 29 7

Ems 45 30 13 2 65 15 9 7

Rhine 39 20 28 4 35 16 31 9

Oder 55 13 26 2 54 7 33 4

German

Baltic

Coast

58 15 14 2 58 13 19 4

Weser 41 27 26 2 48 14 28 7

North Sea 45 20 26 3 43 14 29 8

Baltic Sea 56 13 24 2 55 9 30 4

Land-use change 1880 - 2010

Comparison 1880-2010: higher values lower values

Land-use in the 1880ies

Share of agricultural land on catchment area

Share of tile drained agricultural areas in 1880ies

Share tile drained agricultural land in %

1880 8

2005 16

Spatial distribution adapted from 2010

Atmospheric deposition in the 1880ies

NHy in kg/km²

NOx in kg/km²

Total in kg/km²

1880 585 82 668

2010 (*increase)

986 (*1.7)

742 (*9.0)

1728 (*2.6)

(Gadegast & Venohr, in prep.)

Change of N-fertilizer use in Germany

Change of N-fertilizer use in Germany

(Gadegast & Venohr, in prep.)

Volatilization is crucial and was probably much higher (~60%)

than at current conditions, due to open storage and more

livestock on the fields.

N surplus on agric. Areas in 1880ies

N-surplus in kg/ha/yr

P-accumulation in kg/ha

1880 23 102

2005 82 (*3.6)

839 (*8.2)

Fischer, Pöthig & Venohr (submitted)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

P-Sättigung im Boden [%]

P-K

on

ze

ntr

atio

n C

[m

gP

/l]

Po

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

Modell

Gemessene P-Konzentrationen

C =0,0046+6,18·10 ·ePo-7 (PSD·0,1564)

N=218 ; r²=0,74

Pöthig et al. 2010

0 20 40 60 80 100

P-C

onzentr

ation C

P0 in m

g/l

0

1

1,5

2

0,5

P-saturation (DPS) in soils in %

P-content (P-CAL) from ~350,000

soil samples provided by German

federal states.

At low saturation levels P mobility

decreases drastically.

For unfertilized areas P saturation

is usually below 60 %.

P saturation in agricultural soils 2010

Population density in the 1880ies

Inhabitants in mio.

Inhab./km²

Share in cities in %

Share connected in %

1880 60 90 20 6

Share collected waste water in the 1880ies

Share connected in % of total inhab.

Share connected in % of urban inhab.

1880 6 29

Successfull treatment only in Berlin

93 % of wastewater was treated in septic tanks with a soil groundwater passage

1830 0.3

2000 3.5

1946 3.0

1900 1.0

1940 4.5

1870 0.7

Emissions into surface water bodies of Berlin

during the last 150 years

Combined sewers

Separate sewers

Sewage

farms

Inhabitants conn. to

the Radial System

(combined sewers)

1850

1985

1876

Surface runoff

Surface runoff

Open gutters

Surface runoff

Open gutters

Surface runoff

Surface water bodies

of Berlin

Inhabitants

connected to

combined and

separate sewers

1907

No sewer and WWTP

Inhabitants conn.

to open gutter

WWTP

Inhabitants

connected to

combined and

separate sewers

Overflow water

Combined sewers

Separate sewers

Surface runoff

Overflow water

1927

0 1000 2000 3000

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

TP load (t TP/a)

0 5000 10000 15000

TN load (t TN/a)

3 per. Mov. Avg.

(Series1)3 per. Mov. Avg.

(Series3)

TN load

TP load

Combined sewers

Separate sewers

Inflow waters

(The Upper Havel, Spree and Dahme)

Inhab. in

Mio.

Din & Behrendt (unpublished)

TN emissions in 1880ies

Specific TN emissions in kg/ha/yr

Total TN emissions in t/yr

1880 6.3 415,000

TP emissions in 1880ies

Specific TP emissions in kg/ha/yr

Total TP emissions in t/yr

1880 0.16 10,600

Emissions per pathways in 1880ies

TN

TP

Emissions, loads and concentrations Specific emissions

in kg/ha/yr; kg/km²/yr

Share urban systems in %

Loads in kt/yr; t/yr

Concentrations in mg/l; µg/l

TN TP TN TP TN TP TN TP

Eider 8.5 9 < 0.5 1 2.9 15 1.4 18

Elbe 5.1 14 8 24 43.2 1062 1.8 34 Ems 6.2 12 2 7 6.2 90 1.8 27

Rhine 8.3 21 6 17 104.0 2545 1.4 34

Oder 3.6 10 1 4 26.6 648 1.6 40

German Baltic Coast

3.4 8 9 28 6.1 118 1.2 23

Weser 6.3 13 3 11 18.9 360 1.8 34

North Sea 6.9 17 6 18 213.1 4850 1.6 37

Baltic Sea 3.5 10 3 8 32.7 118 1.5 37

Total 6.3 16 5 15 292.2 713 1.5 35

15.09.2011 DGL Jahrestagung 2011 21

Conclusions

• On a low level, human activities already started impacting nutrient emissions and concentrations

• Nitrogen surplus and tile drained areas already showed hot spots

• Most waste water was treated in „septic tanks“, emissions entered after soil-groundwater-passage (with high retention)

• Capacity of waste water treatment plants was very low and caused high emissions

• Mean concentrations of 1.5 mg TN/l and 35 µg TP/l were modelled, but showed significant differences depending on

– Population

– Waste water collection

– N-surplus

• Use 1880 as reference state to derive reduction goals for EU-

WFD and for marine strategies (inter-calibration)

• Reference state shall represent:

– Mostly undisturbed conditions

– Equivalent to very good ecological status (EU-WFD)

• Earliest period with available input data

• Human population is not neglected compared to backgrund

conditions – in 1880 it is approx. 50 % of current population

• Land-use distribution is similar to current conditions

• No mineral fertilizer application - only organic fertilizer

• Atmospheric deposition less than today, but already elevated

compared to background conditions

• River straightening has mostly be conducted

Why 1880ies?

External framework

Catchment characteristics Surface waters

Pathways

Model – short introduction

Process-oriented

model for basin-wide analysis:

• Regionalized pathway, land-

use and source specific

emissions

• In-stream retention and

resulting loads

• Scenarios on effect of climate

change and management

options

• International model

application (EU, China,

Mongolia, Brazil, Canada)

(Venohr et al. 2011)