Modelling future deforestation location Working group ... · Modelling future deforestation...
Transcript of Modelling future deforestation location Working group ... · Modelling future deforestation...
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Modelling future deforestation location – Working group meeting 4 - Macapa
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Summary
• Why spatial location of deforestation matters
• Example of spatial zoning in French Guiana
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Why location of deforestation matters
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Why location matters
• Socio-political perspective:
– Location of deforestation reflects the way each country (each part of the country) is developing
– Conservation issues (threats to some specific ecosystems)
• Modeling perspective:
– Location of deforestation is not independent from quantity of deforestation (and vice versa)
– 2 examples…
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Spatial autocorrelation
• For many reasons (accessibility, access to water or electricity, land management laws, family) people settles close to each other
• Areas close to previously deforested zones face bigger deforestation pressure
• Deforestation is a spatially autocorrelated process
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Processes leading to deforestation can be specific to certain areas of the
territory
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Processes leading to deforestation can be specific to certain areas of the
territory
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Agriculture
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Processes leading to deforestation can be specific to certain areas of the
territory
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Urban areas
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Processes leading to deforestation can be specific to certain areas of the
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Example of spatial zoning in French Guiana
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Model’s structure (ex. Guy. Fr.)
• Distinguish between different land status (administrative or not : NA, Protected areas, Presence of gold-greenstone, Permanent forest estate or other)
• With the help of local experts, identify important deforestation drivers for each kind of zone and their specific dynamics
• Possibility for testing different scenarios
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Protected Areas (Fr. Gui.) 26
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Normally => no deforestation should occur
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Permanent Forest Estate 26
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Deforestation is possible under constraint
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Gold mining (Fr. Gui., greenstone belt)
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Gold mining (buffer => alluvial) 26
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Superposition Greenstone-PAs 26
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There should be no deforestation but? => Illegal gold mining
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Superposition Greenstone-PFE 26
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Deforestation due to legal gold mining is possible under authorization Illegal gold mining can also occur The process of gold mining might be considered as independant of the administrative boundaries
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Quantification / Location
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Why distinguishing these processes?
• Create a model for forecasting the quantity of deforestation and a model to spatially allocate this deforestation
• Produce a more refine work on each of these processes
• But implies that we are able to distinguish the drivers that influence quantity and those which influence location
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Examples
• Quantity of deforestation : population increase, gold prices increase
• Location : creation of new roads, new protected areas etc.
• Population increase provokes more demand for land (same for gold mining), and people settles where more easy (impact of land management policies)
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Discussion : spatial and temporal dynamics of deforestation in each sector
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Unprotected areas
• Impacted by agriculture, and infrastructure building / urban expansion :
– Infrastructure / urban expansion => function of demography
– Agriculture => function of demand (demography) and incentives (credits)
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Protected areas
• No deforestation a priori in strictly protected areas
• In areas of sustainable development, agricultural growth can be a function of demography also, but to a lesser extent
• Illegal gold mining
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Permanent forest estate
• Few deforestation due to tracks building, but should remain covered by forest for a long time
• Deforestation is possible under constraint (demographic pressure or legal goldmining)
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Greenstone areas (gold mining)
• Quantity of deforestation due to gold mining could be a function of gold prices, political incentives for mining or repression against illegal gold miners
• Location of deforestation due to gold mining : greenstone, rivers (alluvial gold mining)
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Questions?
• Discussion on which are the areas of the country with specific dynamics of deforestation
• Which are the relevant drivers of deforestation in each of these areas?
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Thanks for your attention
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