Modelling causal pathways in health services part 1, Prof Richard Lilford
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Transcript of Modelling causal pathways in health services part 1, Prof Richard Lilford
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Modelling causal pathways in health services
S. Watson and R. LilfordUniversity of Warwick
CLAHRC WM Scientific Advisory Group – June 2015
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What is the problem?
Causal effects of generic service interventions
Multiple data of different types
To inform decision models
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Brown et al. Qual Saf Health Care. 2008;17:178-81.Brown & Lilford. BMJ. 2008;337:a2764.
PolicyTargeted service process
Clinical process
PatientOutcome
Genericserviceprocess
Classifying Health Interventions
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GenericProcesses
Death
Adverseevents
Patientsatisfaction
Brown et al. Qual Saf Health Care. 2008;17:178-81.Lilford et al. BMJ. 2010;341:c4413.
TargetedService
Processes
ClinicalProcesses
QoL
End-Points
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Genericintervention
Mediatingvariable
Errors AEs QoL
Δ1 Δ2
Δ3
+Δ = +Qualitative +
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How can we make use of all the observations in a multi-level,
multi-method study?
Bayesian Modelling
Lilford & Braunholtz. BMJ. 1996; 313: 603-7.Lilford, et al. BMJ. 2010; 341: c4413.Yao et al. BMJ Qual Saf. 2012; 21: i29-38.Hemming et al. PLoS One. 2012; 7(6): e38306.Lilford et al. BMC Health Serv Res. 2014; 14: 314.
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Method 1: Mental Integration Alone
Systematic review
Theoretical knowledge
Multi-level / multi-method observation
Bias
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Bayesian elicitation for intervention to reduce adverse events after discharge from hospital
Relative risk reduction preventable adverse events – priors from 24 experts
Pooled ‘prior’ for risk reduction of adverse events
Yao et al. BMJ Qual Saf 2012; 21: i29-38.Hemming et al. PLoS ONE. 2012; 7(6):e38306.
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Genericintervention
Mediatingvariable
Errors AEs
Δ1 Δ2
++ +
Method 2: Bayesian Causal Network Analysis
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Genericintervention
Mediatingvariable
Errors AEs
Method 3:Intermediate methods
Qualitative
+++
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Factor Bias
Start with meta-regression data
Method 1
Method 2
Update mathematically (Turner & Spiegelhalter)
Elicit distribution for
bias
Update mathematically