Modelling capacity to meet the 2012 Homelessness Target
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Transcript of Modelling capacity to meet the 2012 Homelessness Target
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Modelling capacity to meet the 2012 Homelessness Target
Dr. Andrew Waugh
31.10.11
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• Homelessness etc. (Scotland) Act 2003
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• Using the Waugh Model to assess local authority ‘capacity’
– Numbers in temporary accommodation– Time spent in temporary accommodation– Number and proportion of social lets required
by homeless households
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Methodology
Stock ModelHomelessness System Model+
Supply Demand
one for each local authority
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LA Core
LA Demo
terminations
RTBs
homeless lets
other waiting list lets
decants to LA decants
to RSL
terminations
Local Authority and Transfer Landlord Tenancy Dynamics
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LA Core
LA Demo
RTBs
new build
demolitions
Local Authority and Transfer Landlord Stock Dynamics
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RSL
RTBs
new build
demolitions
RSL Stock Dynamics
RSL Tenancy Dynamics
RSL
RTBs
decants from LAothers lets
terminations
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• Inputs (things we try to control)– The number of applications + assessments– Number of lets to homeless households
• Outputs (results)– Number of households in the system– Time spent in the system
Homelessness System Model
Temporary accommodation
applications
lets
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Homelessness System Model
PN
Non PN
LA
Temporary Accommodation = constant x (Assess +PN + NonPN)
RSLPRS
Other
LA
Other
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Constraints• LA Homeless Lets <= All LA Lets – LA decants
• RSL Homeless Lets <= All RSL lets – decants
• All Homeless Lets <= x all homeless outcomes
• PRS Homeless Lets < = x all homeless outcomes
Homelessness System Model
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Checking Forecasts against Actual Data
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• Homelessness levels as at 2006/7
• All landlords maintain fixed % of lets
• New Build distributed as in 2003/4 -2005/6
Continue 2006/7 Position
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Households in Temporary Accommodation
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Ho
us
eh
old
s in
Te
mp
ora
ry A
cc
om
mo
da
tio
n
Historical Temporary Accommodation Projected Temporary Accommodation
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Households in Temporary Accommodation
8500
9000
9500
10000
10500
11000
11500
2008 2009 2010 2011
Actual Waugh
Health Warning
Great forecast but underlying assumptions wrong!
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Local Authority Lets (excl. transfer) 2006-7 to 2010-11
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
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Eas
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Hig
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Wes
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Wes
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Waugh Actual
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Abe
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ity
Abe
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Ang
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Arg
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But
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Cla
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Dun
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Eas
t Ayr
shire
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Eas
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Eas
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Edi
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an S
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Fal
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Gla
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Hig
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Mid
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ian
Mor
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Nor
th L
anar
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Ork
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Per
th &
Kin
ross
Ren
frew
shire
Sco
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Bor
ders
, The
She
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Sou
th A
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Sou
th L
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Stir
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Wes
t Dun
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Wes
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min max
Variability within the Local Authority Lettings Data (non-transfer lets)
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Next steps
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• Update the work to include latest information (APSR, HL1, HL2)
• Run simulations for 2012 and beyond
• Help inform policy options
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• Work expected to form a key part of advice to Ministers
• Cross cutting themes– HB/Welfare Reform
• LA’s ability to pay for temporary accommodation• Increase in homelessness?