Mesopotamia (Tigris and Euphrates) Egypt (Nile) India (Indus and Ganges) China (Yellow and Yangtze)
Modeling Water Management Options for the Tigris Euphrates ...
Transcript of Modeling Water Management Options for the Tigris Euphrates ...
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- 1 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
Pao-Yu Oei
Workgroup for Economics and
Infrastructure Policy (WIP, TU Berlin)
Trans–Atlantic INFRADAY Conference
Washington, DC November 11th, 2011
Modeling Water Management Options
for the Tigris – Euphrates Basin
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- 2 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
Road Map
• Motivation
• Introduction of WATER – MOD
• Building of Scenarios
• Analysis of the Results
• Conclusion
• Further Research
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- 3 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
Motivation
• Euphrates and Tigris supply 50 million
people from Turkey, Syria and Iraq
• 90 – 98 % of Euphrates and
50 % of Tigris spring in Turkey
• Constant debates how to regulate
a fair water distribution
Need to examine different
water management options
Motivation WATER-MOD Scenarios Results Conclusion
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- 4 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
Motivation
"And tell them that water is to be divided between them:
Each one’s right to drink being brought forward by turns.“
The Koran, Alkamar: 28 iv
"Neither Syria nor Iraq can lay claim to Turkey’s rivers any more than
Ankara could claim their oil. This is a matter of sovereignty. We have a
right to do anything we like. The water resources are Turkey’s; the oil
resources are theirs. We don’t say we share their oil resources, and they
cannot share our water resources.“
Suleyman Demirel, Prime Minister of Turkey, 1992
Motivation WATER-MOD Scenarios Results Conclusion
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- 5 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
"Southeastern Anatolia Project" (GAP)
• Turkish investment project
• 9 provinces in the
Kurdish South-East
• Original plan to finish by 2010
• Irrigate 1.7 million ha
• Produce 27 billion kWh
• Employ 3.8 million people
• Increase per capita income by 209 %
Source: (GAP, 2006)
Motivation WATER-MOD Scenarios Results Conclusion
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- 6 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
"Southeastern Anatolia Project" (GAP)
Source: (GAP, 2006)
Motivation WATER-MOD Scenarios Results Conclusion
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- 7 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
Literature Overview
• (Li et al., 2006) Yellow River Basin, (McKinney/Karimov, 1997) Aral Sea,
(Siehlow et al., 2011) Orange River Basin, (Gohar/Ward, 2010) Nile.
• "Euphrates and Tigris River Basin Model" (ETRBM) (Kucukmehmetoglu,
2002) from Gebze Institute of Technology, Turkey
The ETRBM is a linear programming model maximizing net economic
benefits from the TE-Watershed.
• Later versions focus on potential political and economic impacts of
reservoirs in temporal perspective (Kucukmehmetoglu, 2005 and 2009).
Motivation WATER-MOD Scenarios Results Conclusion
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- 8 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
Water Allocation of the Tigris-Euphrates Rivershed
• WATER – MOD
• Seasons, Storage, Evaporation & Precipitation
• Water characteristics (back-flow, min water)
• 50 Nodes
- 16 Transport nodes: Tigris, Euphrates and main tributaries
- 9 Turkish Demand nodes : 7 mil. people, 1,700,000 ha, 430 mcm3
- 7 Syrian Demand nodes : 7 mil. people, 1,000,000 ha, 308 mcm3
- 18 Iraquien Demand nodes: 37 mil. people, 5,500,000 ha, 9700 mcm3
Motivation WATER-MOD Scenarios Results Conclusion
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- 9 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
Motivation
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- 10 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
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- 11 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
Water Allocation of the Tigris-Euphrates Rivershed
Decision Tree:
Objective Function:
Motivation WATER-MOD Scenarios Results Conclusion
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- 12 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
Constraints
Motivation WATER-MOD Scenarios Results Conclusion
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- 13 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
Data: Reference Values and Demand
Motivation WATER-MOD Scenarios Results Conclusion
Regions Groups Reference
value [$/cm]
Reference
demand [mcm] Elasticity
Iraq Households 1 4300 - 0.3
Syria Households 1 738 - 0.3
Turkey Households 1 620 - 0.3
Iraq Industry 1.5 9700 - 0.2
Syria Industry 1.5 308 - 0.2
Turkey Industry 1.5 430 - 0.2
Iraq Agriculture 0.0023 52000 - 0.25
Syria Agriculture 0.057 7335 - 0.25
Turkey Agriculture 0.066 2960 - 0.25
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- 14 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
Two Modeling Approaches
• Sequential three stages approach:
Every country maximizes its own profit
in order of their geographic position
• Mixed Complementarity Problem (MCP):
Maximizing the overall welfare of all countries
Motivation WATER-MOD Scenarios Results Conclusion
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- 15 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
Scenarios
Ecological:
• Different water levels
(dry, medium or wet)
Motivation WATER-MOD Scenarios Results Conclusion
Institutional:
• Building a canal from Tigris to Euphrates in Iraq
• Minimum flow treaties between countries
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- 16 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
Results: Different water flows
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Min Normal Max Min Normal Max
Optimal Strategic
we
lfar
e [
bil.
$ /
ye
ar]
Iraq
Syria
Turkey
Motivation WATER-MOD Scenarios Results Conclusion
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- 17 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
Demand & Welfare in the optimal min flow case
Demand & Welfare under strategic behaviour
1
10
100
1000
10000
rainy dry rainy dry rainy dry
Turkey Syria Iraq
De
ma
nd
[m
cm
]
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
rainy dry rainy dry rainy dry
Turkey Syria Iraq
We
lfa
re [m
il. $
/ye
ar]
1
10
100
1000
10000
rainy dry rainy dry rainy dry
Turkey Syria Iraq
De
ma
nd
[m
cm
]
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
rainy dry rainy dry rainy dry
Turkey Syria Iraq
We
lfa
re [m
il. $
/ye
ar]
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- 18 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
Results: Building a canal
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Optimal Strategic Canal
We
lfar
e [
bil.
$/y
ear
]
Iraq
Syria
Turkey
Motivation WATER-MOD Scenarios Results Conclusion
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- 19 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
Results: Minimum flow treaty
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Strategic Canal 50% 70% 2x50% Optimal
We
lfar
e [
bil.
$/y
ear
]
Iraq
Syria
Turkey
Motivation WATER-MOD Scenarios Results Conclusion
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- 20 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
Final Conclusion
• Turkey is able to produce 5 times higher values as
Iraq in the agricultural sector per m3 of water.
• A waterflow reduction by 60% reduces the overall
income by 5%.
• Strategic behaviour is causing the overall national
income to be reduced by 35%.
• A canal from Tigris to Euphrates increases the
Iraquien industrial & domestic usage.
• Minimum flow treaties between countries increase
the overall national income by 20%.
Motivation WATER-MOD Scenarios Results Conclusion
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- 21 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
Further Research
I am currently working on:
• Ecological constraints
• Hydropower integration
Water
Allocation of the
Tigris and
Euphrates
Rivershed
WATER – MOD
Motivation WATER-MOD Scenarios Results Conclusion
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- 22 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
Questions
Thank you very much
for your attention!
Are there any questions?
Water
Allocation of the
Tigris and
Euphrates
Rivershed
WATER – MOD
Motivation WATER-MOD Scenarios Results Conclusion
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- 23 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
References
Motivation WATER-MOD Scenarios Results Conclusion
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- 24 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
References
Motivation WATER-MOD Scenarios Results Conclusion
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- 25 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
References
Motivation WATER-MOD Scenarios Results Conclusion
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- 26 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
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- 27 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
Data: Reference Values and Costs
Costs for domestic and industrial uses is 0.005 US$/m3/km (Kucukmehmetoglu, 2009)
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- 28 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
Pao-Yu Oei
Workgroup for Economics
and Infrastructure Policy (WIP)
Trans–Atlantic INFRADAY Conference
Washington, DC November 11, 2011
Water
Allocation of the
Tigris and
Euphrates
Rivershed
WATER – MOD
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- 29 - Berlin Institute of Technology ( TU Berlin)
Workgroup for Economics and Infrastructure Policy (WIP) Pao-Yu Oei ([email protected]) 11.11.2011
Further Research
I am currently working on:
• Ecological constraints
• Hydropower integration
Thank you very much for your attention!
Are there any questions?