Modeling Status Update - djb.iwmi.org

SUSTAINABLE, JUST & PRODUCTIVE

WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN NEPAL

UNDER CURRENT & FUTURE CONDITIONS

(DIGO JAL BIKAS – DJB)

Modeling Status UpdateReview of Data and Documents

Tuesday, 1ST August, 2017

Emily Pakhtigian—Duke University

([email protected])

Data Sources: Groundwater and Inflows

Reassessment of the Groundwater Development Strategy

for Irrigation in the Terai (1994)

• Deep Tubewell Database

SWAT Modeling

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Data Sources: Hydrological Modeling for Inflows

Basins Considered:

• Karnali-Mohana

• Mahakali

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• Biophysical mapping

− Land use/cover

− Soil

− Topography

− Hydro-climatic

conditions

• Hydrological modelling

(SWAT)

− Karnali-Mohana

(49,889 km2; 6.9%

area in China)

− Mahakali (17,371 km2;

68% area in India)

• Water-infrastructures

− Hydropower projects

(150 nos; >0.5 MW)

− Irrigation Projects (57;

> 100 ha NCA)


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Topography: 69-7726 masl Soil: 21 types (SOTER) LULC: 9 generic types

Rainfall variation Temperature variation 111 sub-basins; 9 Q-

stations for calibration

Example of Karnali-Mohana Basin


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SN Data type Unit Resolution Source

1 Digital Elevation

Model (DEM)

m Spatial: 30m grids Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection

Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model Version 2

(GDEM V2) (2011)

(accessed on Mar 27, 2013)

2 Land use/cover

(LULC)

- Spatial: 300m grids for ESA-

LCCI (2016); 30m grids for

ICIMOD (2010)

European Space Agency - Climate Change Initiative (ESA-LCCI)

(2016) data for DJB area.

ICIMOD (2010) data for the territory within Nepal.

3 Soil (map and

properties)

- Spatial: 1:1million scale map ~

10km

Soil and Terrain Database Program (SOTER) soil maps for China,

Indo-Gangetic plain, and Nepal (accessed on March 27, 2013 and

December 15, 2016)

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Digital Soil Map of the

World (DSMW) (2007) data for the western part of Mahakali basin

within Indian territory (accessed on Mar 27, 2013)

4 Discharge m3/s Spatial: Station-wise

Temporal: Daily

Department of Hydrology (DHM), Nepal

5 Meteorological

parameters

Multiple Spatial: Station-wise

Temporal: Daily

DHM, Nepal

India Meteorological Department (IMD), India

6 Gridded

precipitation and

temperature

[mm] and

[o C]

Spatial: 0.25o for IMD

Precipitation; 1.0o for IMD

Temperature; 0.25o for TRMM

Temporal: Daily

IMD, India

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Tropical

Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42v7 (accessed on Jan

31, 2017)

7 Current and future

hydrological

infrastructures

- Spatial: Project-wise Department of Electricity Development Issued Licenses website

(accessed on Mar 1, 2017)

Nationwide Master Plan Study on Storage-type Hydroelectric

Power Development Report (2014)

Master Plan Study For Water Resources Development Of The

Upper Karnali River And Mahakali River Basins Report (1993)

Department of Irrigation (DOI) Irrigation and Water Resource

Management Project (IWRMP) website (2 Mar, 2017)

Personal corres. with DOI IWRMP official (8 Feb, 2017)

Development of Database for Irrigation Development in Nepal

Report (2014)


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SWAT model set-up for water availability assessment

• 111 sub-basins

• 36 precipitation

stations

• 22 Temperature &

Humidity stations

• 5 stations for

sunshine hours

• 7 stations for wind

speed

• 24 hydrological

stations (9

selected)

• Model calibration:

improving

Example of Karnali-Mohana Basin


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Daily > Cal: 1996-2002; Val:2003-2009Calibration Validation

R2 0.85 0.85NSE 0.83 0.83PSR 0.41 0.41

PBIAS -14.7 -15.7

Q280 – Chisapani, Karnali


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Daily > Cal: 1996-2002; Val:2003-2009Calibration Validation

R2 0.85 0.85NSE 0.83 0.83PSR 0.41 0.41

PBIAS -14.7 -15.7

Q280 – Chisapani, Karnali

Daily > Cal: 1996-2002; Val:2003-2009

Calibration Validation

R2 0.95 0.94

NSE 0.93 0.91

PSR 0.27 0.29

PBIAS -14.7 -15.2

Water Balance Analysis

• Evapotranspiration (ET): 34.5%

• Percolation: 10.4%

• Baseflow: 10.3% of total flow in river

FUTURE WORK

• Improve hydrograph @ outlet

• Check & improve performance at other

8 stations (key tributaries of Karnali)


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Inflow at SELECTED points as input for HE model ?

IMPACT OF

Management

Practices

(POLICIES) ?

Impact of

Climate Change

• Rainfall

Change?

• Temperature

Change?

Impact of Water Infrastructures

• Hydropower Projects?

• Irrigation Projects?

Data Sources: Energy

Master Plan Study for Water Resources Development of the

Upper Karnali River and Mahakali River Basins (1993)

Nepal Hydropower Database (2009)

JICA Nationwide Master Plan Study on Storage-type

Hydroelectric Power Development in Nepal (2014)

Nepal Electricity Authority Annual Reports

Hydropower Project Reports for a limited number of projects

• Feasibility studies

• Expression of intent documents

• Environmental impact studies

GIS Hydrology Tools

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Data Sources: Agriculture and Irrigation

Department of Irrigation Master Plan (1990)

National Irrigation Database (2009)

Various crop production and pricing reports

• Cost, Production, and Price Spread of Cereal Crops in Nepal

• Average Production Cost and Price Margin of Pulse, Oilseed, Spice, and

Commercial Crops

• Average Cost of Production and Gross Profit of Fruit Farming in Nepal

Statistical Information on Nepalese Agriculture Reports

Irrigation Project Reports for a limited number of projects

• Completion Reports and Project Documents

• Project Visits

• Subproject information provided by Irrigation and Water Resources

Management Project

FAO CropWat Tools

12

Data Sources: Municipal

National Water Plan (2005)

Promoting Financially Sustainable Regulatory Framework

for Water Tariff in South Asia—Nepal (2013)

Central Bureau of Statistics Statistical Yearbook

Water User Master Plan Reports

• HELVETAS, RVWRMP

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WUMP VDC Locations

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Data Sources: Environmental

Basin-Wide Survey

• Sample: 3600

• Ecosystem services valuation

− Trade-off: environmental conservation and expanded

development

• Reliance on natural resources

• Development priorities in the basin

Ecological Flows

• IWMI ecological flows calculator

• Focus of other DJB work

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Modeling Status Update

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Module Parameter Data Source

Water

Groundwater recharge, depth, seepage

Reassessment of the Groundwater Development Strategy for Irrigation in the Terai (1994), SWAT

Groundwater depth Reassessment of the Groundwater Development Strategy for Irrigation in the Terai (1994)

Aquifer storage SWAT

River flows SWAT

Reservoir and river evaporation


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Energy

Reservoir volumes, surfaceareas, water levels

Master Plan Study for Water Resources Development of the Upper Karnali River and Mahakali River Basins (1993), Regional Hydro-power Resources: Status of Development and Barriers Nepal (2002), Nepal Hydropower Database (2009), JICA Nationwide Master Plan Study on Storage-type Hydroelectric Power Development in Nepal (2014), Hydropower Project Reports

Production costs Master Plan Study for Water Resources Development of the Upper Karnali River and Mahakali River Basins (1993), JICA Nationwide Master Plan Study on Storage-type Hydroelectric Power Development in Nepal (2014), Hydropower Project Reports

Production capacity Master Plan Study for Water Resources Development of the Upper Karnali River and Mahakali River Basins (1993), Regional Hydro-power Resources: Status of Development and Barriers Nepal (2002)

Energy loss JICA Nationwide Master Plan Study on Storage-type Hydroelectric Power Development in Nepal (2014), Nepal Electricity Authority Annual Reports

Production efficiency Nepal Electricity Authority Annual Reports, Hydropower Project Reports

Energy price Nepal Electricity Authority Annual Reports

Energy demands Nepal Electricity Authority Annual Reports, NEA Load Focus Report (2015)

Head loss GIS Hydrology Tools

Expansion potential and costs


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Agriculture

Command areas Department of Irrigation Master Plan (1990), Master Plan Study for Water Resources Development of the Upper Karnali River and Mahakali River Basins (1993), National Irrigation Database (2009), Subproject information provided by Irrigation and Water Resources Management Project

Irrigation efficiency Completion Reports, Subproject information provided by Irrigation and Water Resources Management Project

Rainfed and irrigated area National Water Plan (2005), Statistical Information on Nepalese Agriculture Reports

Pumping capacity Department of Irrigation Master Plan (1990)

Irrigation costs National Irrigation Database (2009), National Water Plan (2005)

Crop price Completion Reports, Statistical Information on Nepalese Agriculture Reports, Crop production and pricing reports

Production cost Statistical Information on Nepalese Agriculture Reports, Crop production and pricing reports

Crop yield Completion Reports, Subproject information provided by Irrigation and Water Resources Management Project, Statistical Information on Nepalese Agriculture Reports


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Agriculture

Crop coefficients, water stress FAO CropWat Tools

Effective rainfall, potential evapotranspiration

FAO CropWat Tools

Expansion potential and costs

Distribution of ground and surface water

Disaggregated production costs


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Municipal

Water and energy costs National Water Plan (2005), Promoting Financially Sustainable Regulatory Framework for Water Tariff in South Asia—Nepal (2013)

Water use efficiency National Water Plan (2005)

Water and energy requirements

National Water Plan (2005), Promoting Financially Sustainable Regulatory Framework for Water Tariff in South Asia—Nepal (2013), Central Bureau of Statistics Statistical Yearbook, Water User Maser Plan Reports

Distribution loss Nepal Electricity Authority Annual Reports

Water treatment and reuse

Efficiency improvements and costs

Return flows

Evaporation loss


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Environment

Ecosystem valuation DJB Basin-Wide Survey

Natural resource reliance DJB Basin-Wide Survey

Environmental Flows DBJ work, IWMI Environmental Flows Calculator

Modeling Goals

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Our primary goal is to provide a comprehensive understanding of

trade-offs in the future development Karnali and Mahakali River

Basins

• This should speak to issues of interest and concern among basin

stakeholders and decision makers

• The goal of this workshop is to start that discussion

To achieve that, we are working on a model that includes energy,

agriculture, industrial/municipal, and ecosystem modules

• Requires compilation of a comprehensive database

• Use the model to obtain systematic understanding of different water

use priorities and how they affect resource access and allocation

• Quantify costs and benefits of different options

• Provide analysis that aligns with priorities and interests of

stakeholders and decision makers in the basins

Modeling Status Update - djb.iwmi.org

Documents

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