Modeling & Simulation Experience & Applications Overview for the Aerospace Education Program “It's...

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Modeling & Simulation Experience & Applications Overview for the Aerospace Education Program “It's about routine, affordable, and safe access to and from space...” Edgar Zapata NASA Kennedy Space Center Operations Analysis, Modeling & Simulation 1

Transcript of Modeling & Simulation Experience & Applications Overview for the Aerospace Education Program “It's...

Page 1: Modeling & Simulation Experience & Applications Overview for the Aerospace Education Program “It's about routine, affordable, and safe access to and from.

Modeling & Simulation Experience & Applications Overview for the Aerospace Education Program

“It's about routine, affordable, and safe access to and from space...”

Edgar ZapataNASA Kennedy Space CenterOperations Analysis, Modeling & Simulation

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Page 2: Modeling & Simulation Experience & Applications Overview for the Aerospace Education Program “It's about routine, affordable, and safe access to and from.

Contents

• NASA Context• NASA Context - Transportation vs. Exploration• What are Models & Simulations?• Example Description of a Model• Example Description of a Simulation• Models & Simulations as Software Tools• Visualizing• The Mathematical – Critical Preparation in an Education Path for M&S• In Closing

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Page 3: Modeling & Simulation Experience & Applications Overview for the Aerospace Education Program “It's about routine, affordable, and safe access to and from.

NASA Context

The mosaic is testament to an assortment of NASA initiatives to define a direction for NASA in the post-Shuttle era.

•X-vehicle demonstrators•Technology programs•Research & development•Large scale programs•As all of the above

• Most recently…

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7/15/11 KSC O&COrion Test Article

Page 4: Modeling & Simulation Experience & Applications Overview for the Aerospace Education Program “It's about routine, affordable, and safe access to and from.

NASA Context - Transportation vs. Exploration

• A similar distinction can be-• Access to low-Earth-orbit vs. beyond-Earth-orbit• Systems to get to space vs. in-space systems• Capability vs. goals

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(items shown not to scale)

Page 5: Modeling & Simulation Experience & Applications Overview for the Aerospace Education Program “It's about routine, affordable, and safe access to and from.

What are Models & Simulations?

• Representations (of reality?)• Inputs become outputs• Decompositions that we put back together again in new and interesting ways (“what if”)• Analytical simplifications• Mathematical constructs• Visualizations, pictures of what we plan• Like any perception, subject to error

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https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Brain_in_a_vat

“According to such stories, the computer would then be simulating reality (including appropriate responses to the brain's own output) and the person with the "disembodied" brain would continue to have perfectly normal conscious experiences without these being related to objects or events in the real world.”

-Wikipedia

Page 6: Modeling & Simulation Experience & Applications Overview for the Aerospace Education Program “It's about routine, affordable, and safe access to and from.

Example Description of a Model

• Generic vanilla-flavor description of a model for predicting/estimating costs of a future spaceflight system (this is not the model itself)

• Created for handling a limited number of inputs in endless combinations or “what-if’s”

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Item R&D $

Item NREC $

New item Z $

Team B NREC $Items A, B, C etc

Team B Unit $Items A, B, C etc

Item X NREC $

Item X Unit $

Other LV NREC $

Other LV Per Launch $

Team 1 Estimate

Team 2 Estimate

LV InfoLV Info

Team 3 Estimates

NREC

Unit

Excludes: PI, MO/GO, Test Flight LVs

Includes: Test Flight H-ware, P I/O

Excludes: PI, MO/GO, Test Flight LVs

Includes: Test Flight H-ware, P I/O

Team Z Estimate

LV InfoLV Info

ØØ

Program IntegrationMission/Flight Ops

Project Insight/Oversight Ground/Launch Ops

Relation Relation

Result

Exclude Elements

D, J

PSV/LV and Other LV = Fixed $

ALTERNATE MATH

Relation

Relation

Relation

Fixed

<All (except R&D)

Exclude Elements C,

M and F

MO/GO $

ALTERNATE RESULTS

PI $

ALTERNATE WHAT-IF

Path 1 P I/O

Plus

P I/O

Path 2 MO/GO

PI Path 1

Path 2 MO/GO

Plus

Path 1 MO/GO

Path 2 P I/O

Path 1 PI

Path 2 PI

Scale – apx.

Past?

NO

YES

PI Path 2

Page 7: Modeling & Simulation Experience & Applications Overview for the Aerospace Education Program “It's about routine, affordable, and safe access to and from.

Example Description of a Simulation

• A description of a simulation for predicting/estimating the way in which multiple processes combine to effect the number of launches per year that a processing capability can achieve

• Used in “what-if’s” – where a user explores how changes in inputs alter outputs, reflecting on the real world.

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NormalOPF Flow

VAB SSVFlow

PadFlow

AscentPhase

LaunchDay

On-OrbitPhase

Launch (.59)

Press toMECO

ATO(AOA)

RTLS

TAL

EOMDay

Stay up 1extra day

DescentPhase

DescentPhase

LOV

Landat KSC

Landat DFRC

8thFlight?

Pre-PalmdaleOPF Flow

Post-PalmdaleOPF Flow

Ferry FlightKSC to Palmdale

Mateto SCA

Ferry FlightPalmdale to KSC

Removefrom SCA

Removefrom SCA

Mateto SCA

PalmdaleOMDP

Nominal RTLS Descent

Ferry FlightDFRC to KSC

Removefrom SCA

Mateto SCA

DFRCTurnaround

ScrubFlow

Landat KSC

Land atTAL Site

DescentPhase

LOV

Nominal Descent

DescentPhase

LOV

Ferry FlightTAL Site to KSC

Mateto SCA

TAL SiteTurnaround

Macro Level Model of Space Shuttle ProcessingConceptual Flow Diagram

Scrub (.41)

(.99850)

(.00189)

(.00047)

(.99799)

.99799

No

Spaceport SystemsProcessing Model

May 28, 2000

Model Outputs- Expected Flight Rate- Facility & Flight H/W Utilization %

Model Inputs- Historical data for: -- Processing flows in OPF, VAB etc. -- Launch Day results -- Landings at KSC or DFRC-QRAS, PRA etc. for flight events

(.00142)

(.00943)

(.00207)

Yes

RSRM / SRBDisassembly &

Inspection (Hangar AF)

SSMETurnaround

(Engine Shop)

OMS PodsTurnaround

(HMF)

Rail RSRMSegments to Utah

ET Check-out(VAB)

SRB / SRMStacking (VAB)

ET Mate &Close-out (VAB)

ETManufacturing

DFRCChosen (.1)

KSCChosen (.9)

Legend:Core

Model

Phase-B

Phase-A

Start ofGround

Ops Flow

FlightEvent

IntactAbort

(.00566)

SRBRetrieval

ET Transportto KSC

OMS PodsOMDP (HMF)

MLP (Pad)Post Launch Ops

MLPPark Site Ops

MLP (VAB)Stacking Preps

RSRM SegmentTurnaround (UTAH)

Aft BoosterBuildup (RPSF)

Aft SkirtTurnaround (ARF)

Rail RSRMSegments to KSC

Fwd AssyBuildup (ARF)

Offload & SegmentInspection (RPSF)

Segment Storagein Surge (RPSF)

(.00201)

(.00201)

phaseb.vsd

Fwd SkirtTurnaround (ARF)

FrustumTurnaround (ARF)

Shuttle Processing Simulation, Represented as a Diagram, by Grant Cates Ph.D, and Maryin Steele, Ph.D, circa 2004http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/Shuttle-Ops_main.htm

Page 8: Modeling & Simulation Experience & Applications Overview for the Aerospace Education Program “It's about routine, affordable, and safe access to and from.

Models & Simulations as Software Tools

• Any M&S description, or layout, turned into math, and the logic of if’s and then’s, and made flexible to handle the exploration of combinations of inputs not known early on, can get very complex, very fast.

8A NASA Budget Model (some features blocked / not shown)

http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/ezNASA_Model.htm

Page 9: Modeling & Simulation Experience & Applications Overview for the Aerospace Education Program “It's about routine, affordable, and safe access to and from.

Models & Simulations as Software Tools

• Example Simulation – data aspect.• The schematic or idea translated into math, data-bases, logic and structure

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From the NASA KSC Earth-to-Orbit Supply Chain Simulation Projecthttp://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/E2O_supply_chain_main.htm

Page 10: Modeling & Simulation Experience & Applications Overview for the Aerospace Education Program “It's about routine, affordable, and safe access to and from.

Visualizing

• Data about what we want to build in the future goes in many directions-• To actually visualize the things using 3D virtual models• As shown previously - to understand the processes, timing and inter-actions

associated with the things and their planned facilities – simulation• As shown previously - to analyze the effort the things will require, the labor,

processes, practices, costs and resources to prepare, launch and fly these launchers and spacecraft

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From the Delmia Corp. flyer about the use of 3D Visualization at KSChttp://www.3ds.com/fileadmin/COMPANY/CUSTOMER-STORIES/PDF/NASA-flyer-Eng-lowres.pdf

Page 11: Modeling & Simulation Experience & Applications Overview for the Aerospace Education Program “It's about routine, affordable, and safe access to and from.

The Mathematical – Critical Preparation in an Education Path for M&S

• You can only get there from here – from the math & science that is…

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$-

$4

$8

$12

$16

$20

$24

$28

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

2028

Cross Agency Support

Science

Aeronautics

Space Systems Tech. (Basic R&D)

ISS (incl. 'cargo crew services')

Space Flight Support (J SC, KSC)

Shuttle

HSF Total Remainder (Top-line minus CAS,Sci, Aero, Basic SS R&D, Mission CentricR&D, ISS, STS, SFS)

$-

$4

$8

$12

$16

$20

$24

$28

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

2028

Cross Agency Support

Science

Aeronautics

Space Systems Tech. (Basic R&D)

ISS (incl. 'cargo crew services')

Space Flight Support (J SC, KSC)

Shuttle

HSF Total Remainder (Top-line minus CAS,Sci, Aero, Basic SS R&D, Mission CentricR&D, ISS, STS, SFS)

Cross Agency Support (also includes Center Management & Operations)

Constellation (to early 2011)

Shuttle (to ~mid 2011)

Science Launches (prices=costs)

Falcon 9’s & Taurus 2’s to ISS, Cargo

TBD Launch Vehicle $ to deliver Crew to ISS

Launch Services Program

That which remains: Including “Space Flight Support” at JSC and KSC.

Billions

ezNASA_Budget_Model

Ogive Panel 1 Ogive Panel 3 C-Channel Panel 2 C-Channel Panel 4Ideally-all such models, simulations, data and their tools will speak to each other more fully as these capabilities mature.

There are many challenges ahead in the world of modeling & simulation.

Page 12: Modeling & Simulation Experience & Applications Overview for the Aerospace Education Program “It's about routine, affordable, and safe access to and from.

In Closing

“How can it be that mathematics, being after all a product of human thought independent of experience, is so admirably adapted to the objects of reality?” - Albert Einstein

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More information about some KSC models & simulations at:

http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/models_main.htm

http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/nexgen/simulations_main.htm

http://www.industryweek.com/articles/nasas_kennedy_space_center_visualizing_the_possibilities_23701.aspx

[email protected]