Modeling, Simulation & Assessment

of Purported A2AD Systems

Performance

National Space Organization

Taiwan

Feng-Tai Hwang

2015/10/07

2015 AGI International Users Conference

The views expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of NSPO and other organizations

Contents

• Definition of Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2AD)

• A2AD systems

• Performance Index

Sensor-to-Shooter Timeline Equation

• Surveillance, Verification and Tracking system in

A2AD operation

Simulation Scenario

Total Error Estimations

Anti-Access Opportunities

• Conclusions

Definitions

Anti-Access

(反介入) Area-Denial

(區域拒止)

Anti-Access: Those actions and capabilities, usually long-range,

designed to prevent an opposing force from entering the operational

theater.

Area-Denial: Those actions and capabilities, usually shorter -range,

designed not to keep an opposing force out, but not limit its freedom of

action within the operational theater.

Source: Sam J. Tangredi, “Anti-access warfare: Countering A2/AD Strategies”, Naval Institute Press, 2013

A2AD - A System of Systems

• Radar

• Satellite

• Airplane/ UAV

• Ship/ Submarine

Surveillance, Verification,

Tracking (SVT) Systems

• Anti-Ship Cruise Missile

• Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile

• Torpedo

Strike Systems

Performance

Index

Sensor

Location/Velocity

Estimation Error

Weapon

Delivery Error

Performance Index (1/2)

Total System Error (TSE) and Sensor-to-Shooter timeline equation

TLE ：Target Location Error

DE ：Delivery Error

Static Target 𝑇𝑆𝐸 = 𝑇𝐿𝐸2 + 𝐷𝐸2

Dynamic Target

Elapsed time beginning when

sensor senses target and

ending at munition

VEE：Velocity Estimation Error

𝑇𝑆𝐸 = 𝑇𝐿𝐸2 + 𝑉𝐸𝐸 ∙ 𝑇 2 +𝐷𝐸2

Reference :Brig. General S. M. Cannon, PEO Tactical Missiles Sensor to Shooter Timeline

Equation, Precision Strike Summer PEO Forum, Arlington, VA, 7-8 July 2004.

Performance Index (2/2)

Example:

GPS+Laser Sensor

GPS/INS Guided Missile

Flight Time 240 s

Moving Target Velocity Estimation Error(VEE): 1.2 /s

Time from Target Identification to Launch 60 s

Start

End

360.7m

20300s1.2m/s10

DETVEETLETSE

222

222Target Moving

22.4m

2010

DETLETSE

22

22Target Stationary

𝑇𝑆𝐸Moving Target

𝑇𝑆𝐸Stationary Target= 16.1

Electronic Intelligence Satellite

Land-based OTH-B

SAR/EO Remote Sensing Satellite

Sea/Air Reconnaissance System Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile

Area Of Uncertainty (AOU)

Purported A2AD Systems

Strike Systems

Surveillance, Verification, and Tracking Systems

(SVT Systems)

Land-Based OTH-B

OTH-B Radar Capability Range：800~3500 km Azimuth：60 degree

湖北襄陽

Xiāng-Yáng, Hú běi

Type Series Note

Remote

Sensing

Satellite

Yaogan (遙感)

Satellite

High-resolution Remote Sensing

Satellite

L-band SAR Satellite

HJ Satellite

(環境)

Satellites with Hyperspectral and IR

Multi-spectral imaging sensor

SAR satellite

Gaofen (高分)

Satellite

High-resolution Remote Sensing

Satellite

Data Relay

Satellite

TL Satellite

(天鏈)

Geosynchronous Orbit Satellite

ELINT

Satellite

Yaogan (遙感)

Satellite

Similar to USA NOSS system

Space-based Ocean Surveillance Systems (1/3)

Space-based Ocean Surveillance Systems (2/3)

Ground Receiving Stations

Elevation: 5 degree Orbit Altitude: 650 km

Kè shé Mì yún

Sān yǎ

Space-based Ocean Surveillance System (3/3)

Data Relay Satellite

TL-1 02 satellite may be

part of A2AD systems

TL-1 03

TL-1 01

TL-1 02

SVT Systems in A2AD operation

(1) Target Location Estimation

(2) Target Velocity Estimation

Step1 • Find possible locations of USA

CBG through OTH-B Radar

Step2 • Verify target using remote

sensing satellites.

Step3 • Launch ASBM, if CBG is

identified

Operational Scenario-2

Step1

• Find location of USA CBG through space-based surveillance satellites

Step2 • Monitor and Track target using

OTH-B Radar

Step3

• Launch ASBM after updated location of CBG provided by space-based surveillance satellites or UAV

Operational Scenario-1

Simulation Scenario

Hawaii

Guam

Okinawa

2015/8/1

UTC 00:00:00

2013/8/7

UTC 06:00:00

Satellites in Simulation

2015

Satellite Type

1 YG-16 ELINT

2 YG-17 ELINT

3 YG-18 SAR

4 YG-20 ELINT

5 YG-21 Optical

6 YG-23 SAR

7 YG-24 Optical

8 YG-25 ELINT

9 YG-26 Optical

10 GF-1 Optical

11 GF-2 Optical

12 HJ-1C SAR

Modeling & Simulation Using STK (1/4)

The departure time for the aircraft carrier

from Hawaii was assumed to be

2015/08/01 00:00:00 UTC

Modeling & Simulation Using STK (2/4)

Assume that ELINT satellites can

transmit the location of aircraft carrier

to OTH-B radar through TL-1-02

satellite

Modeling & Simulation Using STK (3/4)

An ELINT satellite update the location

of aircraft carrier for ASBM after

aircraft carrier entering the range of

OTH-B radar

Modeling & Simulation Using STK (4/4)

Simulation Results (1/2)

YG-26

YG-25

YG-24

YG-23

YG-21

YG-20

YG-18

YG-17

YG-16

GF-2

GF-1

SAR Satellite Optical Satellite ELINT Satellite

Simulation Results (2/2)

YG-26

YG-25

YG-24

YG-23

YG-21

YG-20

YG-18

YG-17

YG-16

GF-2

GF-1

First ELINT satellite enters OTH-B

radar acquisition range

SAR Satellite Optical Satellite ELINT Satellite

6 hours

ASBM Flight Time: 833 s

ELINT Satellite (YG-16)

Data Relay Satellite (TL- 1 )

OTH-B Radar

ASBM

Total System Error Analysis Operational Scenario-1

km

T = 900 + 833 = 1733 s

Time from target identification to launch: 900 s

77.402.0)17330015.0(4 222 TSE

The time for location determination

from ELINT satellites is ignored

(2)

(3-1)

(3-2)

2015/08/06

07:29 UTC

Anti-Access Opportunities

6 hours after USA CSG entering OTH-B radar acquisition range

Number of Contacts from Space-based Surveillance System

Satellite Type Number of Contact

Optical 0

SAR 0

ELINT 7

Total 7

Conclusions

• The comprehensive system error of the purported A2AD system is interpreted in the format of sensor-to-shooter timeline equation in a bid to systematically evaluate its performance.

• STK provides superb simulation and visualization tool to emulate such a complicated system of systems.

Thanks for your

attention