Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A....
-
date post
21-Dec-2015 -
Category
Documents
-
view
217 -
download
0
Transcript of Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A....
![Page 1: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed
An overview of the SLEUTH model
Claire A. Jantz
Shippensburg University
Geography-Earth Science
Scott J. Goetz
The Woods Hole Research Center
![Page 2: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Cellular Urban Models
• Cell-based models (grid or raster)
• Cells change state based on local neighborhood conditions
• Constraints to changes are introduced (e.g. slope suitability)– Local neighborhoods are not homogenous
• Rules reflect urban change processes or patterns
![Page 3: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Patterns:Clustered vs. dispersedEdge growth vs. new centers of growthProximity to transportation network
![Page 4: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
The SLEUTH model
• Developed by Keith Clarke (UCSB), sponsored by the USGS Urban Dynamics Program
• Widely used, well-established
http://www.ncgia.ucsb.edu/projects/gig/
![Page 5: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
SLEUTH Applications in the United States
![Page 6: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Global SLEUTH Applications
![Page 7: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
SLEUTH Urban Growth Model
• Urban / non-urban
• Growth rules– Spontaneous (dispersion coefficient)– New spreading center (breed coefficient)– Edge (spread coefficient)– Road-influenced (road gravity coefficient)
• Resistance to development– Slope (slope coefficient)– Excluded layer (user-defined)
![Page 8: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
SLEUTH Implementation
• Calibration– Train the model to simulate historic
patterns of development
• Prediction– Forecast historic patterns of development
into the future
![Page 9: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Input data sets
• Transportation– GDT
• Slope– National Elevation Data
• Areas partially or wholly excluded from development (“excluded layer”)
• Urban time series– UMD/CBPO 1990 and 2000
![Page 10: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Goetz, Jantz et al. (2004). Integrated analysis of ecosystem interactions with land use change: the Chesapeake Bay watershed, in Ecosystems and Land Use Change, 263-275.
Urban Time Series
![Page 11: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Urbanization in the Greater Baltimore – Washington
D.C. area since 1986
8-August-2004 Washington Post 20 km
![Page 12: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Year 2000
![Page 13: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Urban/non-urban
1990 accuracy >79%
2000 accuracy >83%
Jantz, P.A., S. J. Goetz and C.A. Jantz (2005). Urbanization and the loss of resource lands in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Environmental Management 36(6): 808-825.
Year 1990 (BLACK)Year 2000 (RED)
![Page 14: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
SLEUTH model calibrationThe greater Baltimore – Washington DC metropolitan area, circa 2000
Jantz C. A., Goetz S. J. & Shelley M. A. (2003) Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to simulate the land use impacts of policy scenarios in the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan region. Environment and Planning (B) 31(2): 251-271.
mapped modeled
![Page 15: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Calibrating over a large region
• Challenges– Heterogeneity
• Patterns, rates of urban development• Change
– Computational challenge• 167,000 km2 ++• 27,976 x 20,129 cells 563,128,904 cells• weeks of computing time..
![Page 16: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
% Developed (2000)
![Page 17: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
% Change (1990-2000)
![Page 18: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Urban cluster density
![Page 19: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Sub-regional modeling segments
13 cluster variables– Pattern metrics
(developed area, edge density, patch density)
– Change metrics– RUCA– Physiographic
province
K-means
![Page 20: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Sub-regionArea (km2)
New York west 10,666
New York central 20,454
New York east 10,373
Pennsylvania northwest 21,361
Pennsylvania northeast 9,697
Pennsylvania north central 15,572
Pennsylvania south central 12,701
Pennsylvania southeast 21,878
Virginia west 16,758
Virginia central 22,567
Virginia south 7,180
Virginia south central 22,901
Virginia Richmond-Norfolk 21,640
Washington-Baltimore 17,986
Delmarva 15,152
Total area 246,886
![Page 21: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Forecasting• Scenarios
– “Current trends”– Best case vs. worst case
• User inputs– Excluded layer– Dynamic growth rates (“self-modification”)
• Output– Maps showing probabilities of change– Tabular summaries
![Page 22: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Year
Squ
are
kilo
met
ers
deve
lopm
ent
High growth
Linear
Slow growth
Example from application in southeast Massachusetts
![Page 23: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Maryland Urban Extent modeled
with Sleuth
“Current trends”
“Best case”
![Page 24: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Recent advances
SLEUTH, version 3D– New calibration fit statistics– Calibration with two time steps of urban land
cover—instead of four time steps (necessity)– Resolved scale issues related to “diffusion”
parameter• Diffuse development patterns can be captured
using fine scale data
![Page 25: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Key assumptions
• Process is not modeled explicitly– Pattern is linked to process
• Future development patterns are derived from historic trends, but…– Development rates can be modeled dynamically– Flexible scenarios set suitability for where exclusions
(& attractions) occur
• Elements in the excluded layer do not change through time
![Page 26: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Limitations
• Sensitivity to scale (grain) of input data
• Calibration parameters are not transferable– Scale sensitive– Site specific
• Pixel-scale forecasts are probabilistic
• Computational requirements
![Page 27: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Advantages
• Capability to create broad-scale dynamic simulations at a high resolution (30 m cells)
• Limited range of data requirements
• Tightly linked to GIS and land cover observational data sets
• Strong visualization capability
![Page 28: Modeling land cover change in the Chesapeake Bay watershed An overview of the SLEUTH model Claire A. Jantz Shippensburg University Geography-Earth Science.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062421/56649d5d5503460f94a3cfd5/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Thank you!
Jantz, P.A., S. J. Goetz and C.A. Jantz (2005). Urbanization and the loss of resource lands in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Environmental Management 36(6): 808-825.
Jantz, C.A. and S.J. Goetz (2005). Analysis of scale dependencies in an urban land use change model. International Journal of Geographical Information Science 19 (2): 217-241.
Goetz S. J., Jantz C. A., Prince S. D., Smith A. J., Wright R. and Varlyguin D. 2004. Integrated analysis of ecosystem interactions with land use change: the Chesapeake Bay watershed. In Ecosystems and Land Use Change, pp. 263-275. Eds. R. S. DeFries, G. P. Asner & R. A. Houghton. Geophysical Monograph Series, American Geophysical Union, Washington DC.
Jantz, C.A., S.J. Goetz, and M. K. Shelley (2003). Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to simulate the impacts of future policy scenarios on urban land use in the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area. Environment and Planning B 31 (2): 251-271.
WHRC website, Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed: http://whrc.org/midatlantic/