Modeling the Water-Food-Energy Nexus in the Arab World : The Case of Egypt

MODELING FOR INTEGRATED WATER MANAGEMENT

PETER HANY SOBHY RIAD, PHD

APRIL 18, 2016

CONRAD - CAIRO, EGYPT

Contents1. The model structure

2. The model outputs

3. The model applications (examples)

4. The model’s strengths and weaknesses

Visual MODFLOWIt is a finite-difference groundwater flow model tosimulate aquifers systems.

Inputs:

Maps, aquifers characteristics, groundwater levels,external stresses and boundaries (such as: rechargefrom precipitation and irrigation, pumping wells,rivers, streams, drains, springs, reservoirs andevapotranspiration).

The model structure

MapsModel

Results

Often use MODFLOW through a Graphical User Interface (GUI)

Model outputsExecute MODFLOW

Output

Input

1. Groundwater levels for different scenarios .

2. Water budgets (inflow to and outflow from the aquifer system).

3. Pollutant transport (time and distance).

Model Applications:1. Changes in groundwater levels in Sadat City

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* Peter H.S. Riad, Max Billib, Ahmed A. Hassan, Maha Abdel Salam and Mohamed N. El Din (2011): Application of The

Overlay Weighted Model and Boolean Logic to Determine The Best Locations For Artificial Recharge Of Groundwater",

Journal of Urban and Environmental Engineering, vol. 5, no.2, p.57-66.

2. Recharging ponds

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The concentration distribution after 30 days (80 % reaches to a distance of 1 km)

The concentration distribution after 100 days (it covers about an area of 1 km2)

concentration distribution after 30 days (Riad P., et al, 2011)

* Riad, P. H., M. Billib, P.-W. Boochs, A. A. Hassan, M. A. Omar (2011): Analytical and Numerical Approaches for the Hydraulic Design of Artificial Recharge Ponds in a Semi Arid Area. - Franzius-Institut für Wasserbau und Küsteningenieurwesen, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Mitteilungen Heft 98, Seite 163-178, Hannover-Germany.

3. Pollutant transport (time and distance)

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0.5 year

1 year

2 years

* Riad, P. H., M. Billib, P.-W. Boochs, A. A. Hassan, M. Nour Eldin, M. A. Omar (2012): Shallow wells and surface spreading basins modeling to augment the groundwater resources in a semi arid area in Egypt, VII International Conference on Environmental Hydrology, 25 to 27 September 2012, Cairo-Egypt.

4. Saltwater intrusion w.r.t. Climate Changes

Map of max. allowable wells depths near to Tripoli

* A.M.S Gejam, P. H.S. Riad, M.A. Gad, K.A. Rashed and N.A.Hassan, “Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Impacts on Seawater Intrusion at Jefara Plain, Libya”, Journal of American Science, Feb. 2016.

5. Egypt's 1.5 million feddan project(irrigated mainly from groundwater) The project objectives:

1. This project will expand Egypt'sprospective agricultural land 20 percent,from eight million to 9.5 million feddans.

2. The project aims to reduce the food gapand increase the populated area throughthe creation of new urban communities.

3. the project includes digging over fivethousand water wells for a total cost of LE6 billion ($766 million), with 600 wells tobe drilled in different areas of Egypt'sWestern Desert

Source: http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/173472/Egypt/Politics-/Egypts-Sisi-to-launch--million-feddan-project-in-l.aspx

The project new communities

Research points1. Safe yield for sustainable

development.

2. Optimum distances betweenpumping wells.

3. Groundwater levels changesafter 25, 50 and 100 years.

4. The best crops can be planted.

The model strengths

It is widely used and have been usedin different cases around the world

Features can be simulated by MODFLOW

The model weaknesses 1. Models are always constrained by computational limitations, assumptions, and knowledge

gaps. They can be viewed as tools to help inform decisions rather than as machines to generate a perfect truth.

2. The less data you have, the less accuracy of prediction you expect.

Thank you for the Attention Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit

مسنُإستماعكُ لحُ كرا ُشُ

14E-Mail: ph4318@yahoo.com / peter_riad@eng.asu.edu.eg