Modeling Developing Country Emissions Geoffrey J. Blanford, EPRI Global Climate Change Seminar May...
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Transcript of Modeling Developing Country Emissions Geoffrey J. Blanford, EPRI Global Climate Change Seminar May...
Modeling Developing Country Emissions
Geoffrey J. Blanford, EPRI
Global Climate Change Seminar
May 21, 2008
Washington, DC
2© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Rest of World
India
China
Former SU
Rest of OECD
USA
Global CO2 Emissions: Changing of the Guard
2010 Projection
3© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Non-Annex B Emissions will surpass Annex B before 2010
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Annex B
Non-Annex B
4© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Reading the Data on Developing Countries
• Rapid growth in energy use and emissions
• China is the major player, both in rate and scale:
– 618 GW installed capacity in 2006
– 106 GW newly installed
source: J. Kejun (2007)
• Have modeling scenarios caught up?
• What are the implications for global stabilization goals?
5© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Energy-related CO2 emissions in China
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CCSP Reference Scenarios (2006)
History (ORNL)
6© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Energy-related CO2 emissions in China
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History (ORNL)
IEA Reference Forecast (2000)
7© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Energy-related CO2 emissions in China
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History (ORNL)
IEA Reference Forecast (2005)
IEA Reference Forecast (2000)
8© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Energy-related CO2 emissions in China
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History (ORNL)
IEA Reference Forecast (2007)
IEA Reference Forecast (2005)
IEA Reference Forecast (2000)
9© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Energy-related CO2 emissions in China
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History (ORNL)
IEA Reference Forecast (2007)
IEA Reference Forecast (2005)
IEA Reference Forecast (2000)
New MERGE Baseline
10© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Modeling the Kaya Identity
Population × per capita income =
GDP× energy
intensity =
Primary Energy
× carbon intensity =
Emissions
Energy use per capita
11© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
The Kaya Identity in China
China 0
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Carbon Intensity of Energy
Population
EmissionsPer Capita
Income
Energy Intensity of GDP
source: G. Marland (2008)
Carbon Intensity of GDP
12© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in China
2000 – 2010: 9.6%
2010– 2030: 7.5%
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$U
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ME
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13© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Total Primary Energy in China
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EJ
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14© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Comparison to Asian Experience
• China’s per capita income in 2003:
$5,000 (year 2000 $US PPP)
• 7 Asian countries are wealthier than China:
Year of $5,000 income level
2003 Income
Hong Kong 1978 $29,600
Singapore 1967 $27,000
Japan 1961 $24,000
Taiwan 1977 $19,900
Korea 1982 $17,600
Malaysia 1980 $12,100
Thailand 1992 $7,700
15© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Per Capita Income Projection for China
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$U
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PP
P)
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Other Asian Countries
History (PWT)
New MERGE Baseline
16© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Energy Intensity Projections for China
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History (PWT, IEA)
New MERGE Baseline
17© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Per Capita Energy Use Projections for China
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History (IEA)
New MERGE Baseline
18© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Per Capita Energy Use Projections for China
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Other Asian Countries
CCSP Reference Scenarios (2006)
History (IEA)
IEA Reference Forecast (2007)
New MERGE Baseline
19© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Global CO2 Emissions
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20© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Global CO2 Emissions
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CCSP Reference Scenarios (2006)
SRES Reference Scenarios (2000)
History (ORNL)
New MERGE Baseline
21© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Is 450 (CO2 only) Feasible?
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10CCSP 450 ppmv CO2 Stabilization Scenarios
Rest of World History
India History
China History
World Total History
22© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Is 450 (CO2 only) Feasible?
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10CCSP 450 ppmv CO2 Stabilization Scenarios
Rest of World Baseline
India Baseline
China Baseline
World Total History
History New MERGE Baseline
23© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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10CCSP 550 ppmv CO2 Stabilization Scenarios
Rest of World Baseline
India Baseline
China Baseline
World Total History
Is 550 (CO2 only) Feasible?
History New MERGE Baseline
24© 2008 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Conclusions
• There is considerable uncertainty about future growth…
• … but, the scenario shown here is plausible, consistent with current observations and historical experience
• If developing countries continue to grow along this baseline path, aggressive stabilization targets quickly become impossible to meet (without overshoot)
• Annex B countries must find a way to engage China