Modeling BiOS?
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Transcript of Modeling BiOS?
Modeling BiOS?
Why not..
Renzo Mosetti OGS
Main question:
Is the pseudo-periodic reversal of the circulation in the Ionian sustainable only through internal dynamics?
A feedback mechanism is the core of BiOS.
Let’s try to do something in this direction….
Squeezing the theory to extract the simplest physical mechanism
First :
Ionian Sea Level Anomalyvs.
ADW Salinity Anomaly
The feedback state variables:
FACTSFACTS
The feedback:The feedback:
ANTICICLONIC CICLONIC
Enter AMW Lower ADW sal.an. NO AMW Increase ADW sal.an
DSdt
d
CSBASdt
dS 3
Setting the ModelSetting the ModelAccumulation of salinity anomaly
Feedback from SL anomaly
Non linear damping/discharge
S ADW salinity anomaly
IONIAN sea level anomaly
(Eq. 1)
Feedback from Salinity anomaly
Recharge oscillator: Fei-Fei Jin 1997, J. Atm. Sc. 54,811
Some math (*)…
A-dimensional equation by scaling:
dst~d
~d
cs~bast~d
ds 3
H/~;month/tt~
H/DTd
CTc
;BHTb
;ATa
Where:T= 2.592 X 10^6
H=200m
*
t~d
dscs3sbd
t~d
dsa
t~d
sd 22
2
0sbdt~d
ds)cs3a(
t~d
sd 22
2
By differentiating and substituting:
Rearranging :
This stuff has a familiar aspect….
(Eq.2)
and the winner is:
We can rewrite Eq (2) in the standard form (3) by the following positions:
(Eq. 3)
c3
ap
;bd
1a
;pxs
;bd
1t~t
How to choose the parameters?
A residence time of Adriatic deep water: 26 Months (Vilibic,sic!) C estimate from data: 1.13 x 10^(-9)B estimate from data : 1.58 x 10 ^(-10)D: estimate from data: 2.75 x 10^(-6)
We do need better estimate from a deep statistical analysis of all available data
Crude estimate:
Nevertheless…
Salinity anomaly
SL anomaly
MONTHS
Period T = 16 yrs !
(scaled to H)
Salinity anomaly
SL anomaly
MONTHS
Phase plane s -
Limit cycle
~
Some comments and future developments
This is a conceptual model:This is a conceptual model:
•May be it is the simplest physical model based on the BiOS hypothesis;
•Over a wide range of coupling coefficients, the model can be self-excited with a robust decadal period;
•The role of an external seasonal /inter-annual forcing (Salinity flux; wind stress) should be investigated: what happens to the oscillations?
•What will be the effect of a stochastic forcing?
The forced, or driven, Van der Pol oscillator takes the 'original' function and adds a driving function:
There exist two frequencies in this system, namely, the frequency of self-oscillation determined by ϵ and the frequency of the periodic forcing. The response of the system is shown in Figure (upper) for Tin=10 and F=1.2 . It is observed that the mean period Tout of x often locks to mTin/n , where m and n are integers. It is also known that chaos can be found in the system when the nonlinearity of the system is sufficiently strong. Figure (lower) shows the largest Lyapunov exponent, and it is observed that chaos takes place in the narrow ranges of ϵ .
a) Anneliese Van der Pol b) Balthasar Van der Pol
A QUESTION for you: Who is “right” Van der Pol ?