Modeling and Observing Kepler Planetary Systems with Large TTVs
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Transcript of Modeling and Observing Kepler Planetary Systems with Large TTVs
Modeling and Observing Kepler Planetary Systems with Large TTVs
Daniel Fabrycky*, Eric Agol, Kevin
Stevenson, Sarah Ballard, Roberto
Sanchis-Ojeda, Joshua Winn, Matthew
Holman, Tsevi Mazeh, Kepler Team and
the World
*U Chicago *Sloan Fellowship
Transit Timing Variations
Agol et al. 2005, Murray & Holman 2005
The Promise
Agol, Steffen, Sari, Clarkson (2005)
The Frustration
HD 209458
TrES-2
Steffen & Agol 2005
Agol & Steffen 2007
The Frustration
Miller-Ricci+07
HD209458
Miller-Ricci+07
HD189733Miller-Ricci+06HD189733 Ballard+10
GJ436
Gibson+10
HAT-P-3
Gibson+10
TrES-3
Adams+10
OGLE-TR-113
Adams+10
OGLE-TR-113
Bean 09
CoRoT-exo-1 Csizmadia+10
CoRoT-exo-1
The FrustrationGJ 1214 Carter et al. 2010
Architectures of Other Planetary Systems
Basic facts:• Planet number• Masses• RadiiDynamical properties:• Periods (n.b.: their ratios)• Eccentricities• Mutual Inclinations
Transits Radial Velocities✔
✔
✔
✔✔ ✔
✔w/ TDV
w/ TTV
w/ TTV
w/ TTV
Science Goals:
Mass-Radius measurements (Composition)
Planet Discovery / Full Architectures
Resonant dynamics Migration Constraints
Results from Kepler• Unique masses: Kepler-9, 11, 18, 30, 36,
KOI-1574 (Ofir et al.), KOI-152 (Jontof-Hutter et al.),
KOI-620 (Masuda), KOI-314 (Kipping et al.)
• Anti-correlation to confirm planethood (Ford et al. 2012, Steffen et al. 2013, Fabrycky et al. 2012, Ji-Wei Xie et al. arxiv:1308.3751, 1309.2329)
• Anti-correlation to measure mass and eccentricity distributions (Lithwick et al. 2013, Hadden & Lithwick 2013, Xie 2014).
• Clearinghouse of TTV and TDV curves (Mazeh et al. 2013)
Kepler 9
• 2 gas giants, TTV’ing (Holman,
Fabrycky, et al. 2010)
Kepler 9
• 2 gas giants, TTV’ing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010)
Kepler 9
• 2 gas giants, TTV’ing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010)
Kepler 9
• 2 gas giants, TTV’ing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010)
Kepler 9
• 2 gas giants, TTV’ing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010)
Kepler 9
• 2 gas giants, TTV’ing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010)
Kepler 9
• 2 gas giants, TTV’ing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010)
Kepler 9
• 2 gas giants, TTV’ing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010)
Kepler 9
• 2 gas giants, TTV’ing (Holman, Fabrycky, et al. 2010)
• See also Ofir & Dreizler
Mb
= 42.3±0.6 ME
* 80±4 ME
Mc= 29.1±0.6 M
E* 54±8 M
E
*(1.0 M
host assumed)
MCMC of TTV published (w/ RVs)
Fits to all TTVs
• Chose the large-amplitude, distinctive TTV shapes. • Found dynamical fits to them, and explored
uncertainties by DEMCMC• Extrapolated that cloud of fits to future times, for
follow-up observations• Needed to invoke additional planets in some multi-
transiting systems.
MCMC chains
Differential Evolution MCMC
Kepler-30
Fabrycky, Ford, Steffen et al. 2012
Systems with Distinctive O-C
• KOI-872 (Nesvorny et al. 2012)
P/P = 1.696
Systems with Distinctive O-C
• KOI-872 (Nesvorny et al. 2012)
P/P = 1.696
• KOI-872 (Nesvorny et al. 2012)
P/P = 1.697
P/P = 2.43
Kepler-19
Ballard, Fabrycky, et al. 2011
Inversion including inclination:
Nesvorny et al. (2008,09,10)
Spitzer TTV program
Spitzer program.
• Spitzer program p10127
• Not hot Jupiters
• Deep transits
• Long-period = Long durations
KOI-1426
b
c
d
Unique solutions
KOI-872 (Nesvorny+12)
KOI-1474 (Dawson+12)
KOI-142 (Nesvorny+13)
Cabrera et al. 2013, Agol et al. in prep
Kepler-90h; P=330 days
KOI-351 = Kepler 90
Planes:13,600km
Neutrinos:11,100km
Time zones:12
http://www.gcmap.com/
• KOINet:Carolina van Essen (Gottingen / Stefan Dreizler)
http://www.gcmap.com/
Other efforts:
Ciardi (KFOP)
Pepper (colleges)
Santerne
Gary (amateur)
# targets:
A few dozen.
Depends strongly on
precision.
Summary• Kepler is a machine for finding multiplanet systems,
both multi-transiting and perturbed systems• TTVs are unveiling full system architectures and
additional planets, even in multi-transiting systems.• Following these transit times, world-wide, will be a
major effort and legacy of Kepler.