Model Devel Roadmap - bu.edu · Model_Devel_Roadmap.doc S ep tm br, 207.L as lud :My CISM Model...
Transcript of Model Devel Roadmap - bu.edu · Model_Devel_Roadmap.doc S ep tm br, 207.L as lud :My CISM Model...
Model_Devel_Roadmap.doc September, 2007. Last table update: May 22. 2007
CISM Model Development Roadmap Overview of Model Development Approach
CISM’s research goal is to develop a comprehensive suite of physics-based numerical simulation models that describes the space environment from the Sun to the Earth. Our strategy is to build the comprehensive model out of separate component models of parts of the overall system, and to couple these together using a computational framework. In addition to developing and coupling the physics-based models, CISM also uses empirical models. The empirical models serve two purposes: to provide well-defined baselines against which the developing physics-based models can be assessed, and to make quickly available a set of forecast models (i.e., models that can be run using real-time inputs to yield results in advance of the outcome, for forecast or nowcast purposes).
Development began by using ad hoc methods to couple a core set of existing MHD and neutral fluid models, covering the regions from the solar corona to the thermosphere. Figure 1 illustrates the two tracks of initial models: the core physics-based MHD models (blue), and empirical or hybrid empirical/physics-based models (yellow). Acronyms are defined at the back of this document.
Figure 1
Succeeding versions of the coupled models build upon this initial set by providing improvements through parallel development in several areas, as indicated schematically in Figure 2. • New generations of component models add and/or improve physics, increase
computational efficiency, provide higher resolution, and refine the coupling interfaces.
• Sophisticated modular coupling, using the InterComm and Overture technologies, replaces ad hoc coupling to create a framework with a robust interface for model additions and replacements. These coupling technologies provide the computational capabilities needed for efficiently running the coupled models and representing the physical processes by which the modeled regions interact. This includes a communications channel between parallel programs in coupled model runs across a
Model_Devel_Roadmap.doc September, 2007. Last table update: May 22. 2007
variety of platforms, support for overlapping grids, and a powerful syntax for arithmetic and differential operations.
• New component models are introduced to add physics and capability through varying degrees of interaction with the core models. Examples include: the Rice Convection Model (RCM) that is tightly two-way coupled with the core models; the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) and Radiation Belt models that operate within the environment defined by the comprehensive MHD model; and a variety of “auxiliary” models that use the comprehensive model as the foundation for calculations tailored to specific user needs. Examples of such tailored models include using the CMIT current systems to calculate localized dB/dt on the ground and a global Ap index (e.g. for SEC), and using the CMIT ionospheric profiles to calculate turbulence growth for prediction of scintillations (in partnership with AFRL).
Figure 2
As development proceeds, the modular nature of the model suite provides the flexibility to construct a variety of model combinations, and to use in situ measurement data at various points as model drivers and for direct comparison with model data. Figure 3 illustrates several alternative configurations, including: the comprehensive physics-based model (CORHEL and LTR); a hybrid model formed by substituting WSA for CORHEL or by the substituting the coronal portion of WSA for MAS; and the use of L1 satellite data to drive the stand-alone LTR geospace model or to compare with results from the standalone CORHEL. Similarly the original forecast model chain can incorporate new physics-based components, for example the Enlil model can replace the solar wind portion of WSA.
Model_Devel_Roadmap.doc September, 2007. Last table update: May 22. 2007
MODEL CONNECTIVITY & OPTIONS
Figure 3
Model Development Sequence
The following tables summarize the sequence of CISM model development through Year-5.
The Year 6-10 sequence is outlined the CISM Model Development Timeline, which is maintained on the web http://www.bu.edu/cism/Publications/documents.html.
Model_Devel_Roadmap.doc September, 2007. Last table update: May 22. 2007
Year Model Com-
ponents
Capabilities & Additions Devel.
Status
Delivery
Status
Respository
Detail
Notes
I. Solar-heliosphere coupled physics-based models2004
snap-
shot
CORHEL 1.0 MAS
ENLIL
Global ambient (non-event) solar wind specification (including points of
particular interest, e.g., L1).
Inputs: filtered NSO/KP synoptic maps of photospheric magnetic field
from specified Carrington rotation.
Ad hoc coupling.
Frozen MAS at CCMC.
Enlil at CCMC.
2005 CORHEL 1.2 Version of CORHEL 1 frozen for formal validation. Frozen, tagged
pre-val.
CORHEL-1_2-prevalid Version for formal
validation
2005 CORHEL 2.0 Add: Additional observatory (Wilcox) for inputs, giving greater data
availability and ability to compare and verify input fidelity.
Magnetograms can be visually preprocessed. Broader range of
controllable inputs. Web-bsaed GUI interface. Stand-alone CD with
Linux executables.
Frozen To CCMC in
2005, w/out GUI.
2005 CORHEL 2.3a Version of CORHEL 2 frozen for formal validation. Frozen, tagged
pre-val.
CORHEL-2_3a-prevalid Version for formal
validation
2005
2006
CORHEL 3.0 Add: Full set of observatories as inputs (NSO/KP, Wilcox, Mt. Wilson,
MDI). Cone model incorporated for ICME propagation and SEP shock
source.
Frozen, tagged
pre-val.
To CCMC Apr
2006.
CORHEL-3-prevalid
2007 CORHEL 3.4 Minor updates; fixes insertion-time of heliospheric transients. Frozen, taggedd
pre-valid
To CCMC. CORHEL-3.4-prevalid Version for formal
validation
II. Solar-heliosphere other physics-based models2004
snap-
shot
Cone Model Interim model of CME-like ejection for propagation in a solar wind
model (e.g. CORHEL) to produce shocks and background fields for SEP
model version 1.0 and to predict the timing and geometry of an ICME in
the realistically modeled interplanetary medium. Does not model internal
magnetic fields of ICME.
Inputs: Source location, angular extent, and speed (observables), density
and temperature.
To be
incorporated in
CORHEL 3.0
and SW Event-
Driven forecast
model.
2004 PFSS Coronal magnetic field driven by magnetograms. At CCMC.
2005 WSA Baseline Same version as running at SEC in 2005. Forcing only NSO/KP input.
Baseline model for several validation skill scores.
Frozen, tagged
pre-val.
WSA-2006_01_13-v1_0-
prevalid
See also VI. "WSA
Forecast" model
2007 SEPMOD 1.0 Energetic particles from parameterized shock source, using shocks and
fields from cone model ICME initialization in CORHEL (post-
processing).
Shock-Finder in
test with Cone
Model outputs.
Ad hoc shock
source
description being
iterated.
Currently uses jumps
along field lines.
Will introduce shock-
normal jumps.
2006 WSA-ENLIL WSA
ENLIL
Forecast capability using quasi-realtime magnetogram acquisition and
runs.
Frozen, tagged
prevalid
In transition at
SEC, CCMC
WSA 1.4.2-prevalid
ENLIL-wsa-2.4-prevalid
see VI. Solar Wind
Ambient Forecast
Model_Devel_Roadmap.doc September, 2007. Last table update: May 22. 2007
Year Model Com-
ponents
Capabilities & Additions Devel.
Status
Delivery
Status
Respository
Detail
Notes
III. Geospace coupled physics-based models2004
snap-
shot
CMIT 1.0 LFM
TING
Geospace model driven by measured (ACE) or modeled (e.g. CORHEL)
solar wind parameters at L1.
Two-way ad hoc coupling.
LFM with OMP parallelization.
Imposed auroral and empirical low-latitude potentials.
Frozen. Pre-val
distribution
available.
Pre-val distrib to
CCMC Jan 2006
v1.0r3 at CCMC
Mar 2007
CMIT-1.0-prevalid-r2.tgz
CMIT-1.0-prevalid-r3.tgz
All pre-MPI CMITs
require at least a 4-
processor, shared
memory computer.
v1.0r3 provides
Linux platform
compatibility,
improved test suite.
2006 CMIT 1.1 LFM
TING
Add: Neutral wind feedback from ionosphere to magnetosphere. Research model.
Not for external
delivery.
Neutral wind
feedback
incorporated in
CMIT 2.0
2007 CMIT 2.0 LFM
TIE-GCM
Add: Two-way coupled, TIE-GCM (MPI parallelization) replaces TING,
giving low latitude electric field. Modularized LFM & TIE-GCM with
InterComm.
2005 LTR 1.0 CMIT 1.0
RCM
LFM two-way coupled to both RCM and TING. (RCM + CMIT 1.1).
RCM drifts give accurate pressure and density to LFM; LFM gives
plasma boundary conditions and magnetic field for RCM. Coupled model
provides Region 2 currents and penetration electric fields.
Models coupled.
Diagnostics
ongoing.
RCM-LFM
diagnostics
underway; tests w/
parallel LFM at high
resol.
IV. Geospace other physics-based models2005
snap-
shot
Radiation Belt
Models
3 component models for energetic particles in earth's magnetosphere: 2D
Radbelt, 3D Radbelt, SEP Cutoff. Common future development includes
parallelization, cubic interpolation, and InterComm.
2D Radbelt Efficient tracking of 2D guiding center motion w/ large number of
particles in time-dependent LFM fields; polar grid. Post-processing gives
fluxes. Future additions: cartesian grid, interior B model.
v. 1.0 frozen;
tagged preval.
rbelt2d-1_0-prevalid
3D Radbelt 3D trajectories w/ choice of either guiding-center or Lorentz calculation
in time-dependent LFM fields; cartesian grid.
Future additions: interior B model; flux calculation.
Tagged devel,
development
ongoing.
rbelt3d-1_0-devel
SEP Cutoff Full 3D Lorentz trajectories determine SEP cutoffs in time-independent
LFM fields; cartesian grid.
Next: add interior B.
Devel version
frozen. Tag for
validation after
adding interior B.
Model_Devel_Roadmap.doc September, 2007. Last table update: May 22. 2007
Year Model Com-
ponents
Capabilities & Additions Devel.
Status
Delivery
Status
Respository
Detail
Notes
V. Comprehensive physics-based models2004
snap-
shot
CISM 1.0 CORHEL 1.2
CMIT 1.0
Ad hoc coupled CORHEL and CMIT.
Provides solar wind and geospace properties.
Inputs: same as CORHEL.
Automated coupler added 2006.
Frozen for
validation.
2007 CISM 2.0 CORHEL 3.0
CMIT 2.0
L1 Coupler
SEPMOD 1.0
Adds improvement to component models described above.
VI. Forecast and special-purpose models2004
snap-
shot
MeV Electron
Forecast
Empirical model: MeV electron radiation belt flux L=1.1 – 10.
Added: flux at 6 energies in test
Running in SEC
Devel. Envir.
CISM_DX-Release-0_24
2004
Vassiliades ARMA or
FIR. Not currently
targeting formal SEC
test product
2004
snap-
shot
Ap Forecast Empirical model: daily average Ap index with lead time of 1-7 days.
Inputs: L1 SW velocity and recent Ap history.
Released Running in SEC
Devel. Envir.
CISM_DX-Release-0_24
2004
2006 Ap Forecast 3-Hr Adds 3-hr running-average ap with 24-hr derived Ap, per SEC evaluation
of daily model.
(SEC Goal #1 set Jan. 2006.)
Development
complete.
Running in
realtime.
Running in SEC
Devel Envir.
SEC Goal 1 of Jan
2006.
2005 Geomagnetic
Disturbances;
Empirical
Predicted regional ground magnetic variations, driven by solar wind
parameters. This Weigel-Baker model is the baseline empirical model
for geomagnetic disturbances.
Complete Weigel
2007 Geomagnetic
Disturbances;
Physics-Based
Auxiliary
calculations from
CMIT data.
Regional ground magnetic variations calculated from model currents,
initially CMIT 2.0. Global Ap calculation as top-level indicator for
comparison and assessment of model confidence.
(SEC Goal #3 set Jan. 2006)
In development. SEC Goal 3 of Jan
2006.
2004
snap-
shot
WSA Forecast
Model
Empirical solar wind model. Driven by Mount Wilson, NSO/KP, and
Wilcox observatory data.
Running in real
time in SEC
Devel. Envir. To
CCMC in 2005.
See also II. WSA
Baseline model
2006
2007
WSA 1.4.2 Complete At SEC, CCMC.
Running CCMC
in realtime.
WSA-1.4.2-prevalid
2006 Solar Wind
Ambient Forecast
Model
WSA+ENLIL Daily updated magnetograms from NSO/KP drive coronal portion of
WSA model, which drives ENLIL MHD Solar Wind model to provide
ambient SW in the heliosphere and at L1. Purposes:
(a) Research model demonstrates insertion of physics-based MHD
module into forecast model and investigates sensitivity of solar wind
models at L1 to inner boundary conditions.
(b) Forecast model.
(SEC Goal #2 set Jan. 2006)
Complete. Running in SEC
Devel. Envir.
WSA-1.4.2-prevalid
ENLIL-wsa-2.4-prevalid
SEC Goal 2 of Jan
2006.
Runs on workstation.
See also II. WSA-
ENLIL
Model_Devel_Roadmap.doc September, 2007. Last table update: May 22. 2007
Names & acronyms CISM Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling
CMIT Coupled Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Thermosphere model. CORHEL Coupled CORona (MAS) – HELiopsphere (Enlil) model
ENLIL Heliosphere model (Enlil is the Sumerian god of wind) InterComm Software package used in model coupling to provide communications &
control between parallel (and serial) programs LFM Lyon, Fedder, Mobarry magnetosphere model
LTR Coupled LFM, TIE-GCM, RCM geospace model MAS Magnetohydrodynamics Around a Sphere coronal MHD model
Overture Software package used in model coupling to handle overlapping grids; computations between domains
SEP Solar Energetic Particle model TIE-GCM Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model
TING Thermosphere Ionosphere Nested Grid model WSA Wang-Sheeley-Arge model
WSA in CISM is supported through a partnership with AFRL