MOD5 Handout EN · Economic analysis may also Economic analysis typically look - the costs of...

The GCCA is funded by the European Union.

These training materials were developed with the support of the European Commission.

Global Climate Change Alliance Support Facility

Training workshops on mainstreaming climatechange in national

HANDOUT FOR PARTICIP

Raising awareness and building partnerships

The GCCA is funded by the European Union.



orkshops on mainstreaming climatechange in national development planning

and budgeting

HANDOUT FOR PARTICIPANTS

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MODULE 5




orkshops on mainstreaming climatedevelopment planning

ANTS


Module 5: Raising awareness and building partnerships

MODULE 5 – Raising awareness and building

TOPICS COVERED BY THE MODULE:

- Overall approach to raising awareness and

- Assessing evidence: key tools and approaches

o Vulnerability and adaptation assessmento Economic analysiso Demonstration or pilot projects

- Communication and advocacy strategy

- Mobilisation of key actors and partnership building

- Illustration: macroeconomic analysis in support of awareness raising

KEY TOOLS AND APPROACHES:

- Communication and advocacy strategy.

KEY CONCEPTS AND MESSAGES:

Overall approach to raising awareness and building partnerships

1. Communication and advocacyon and commitment to climate

2. A pre-requisite for informingengaging/mobilising key actors in view of building partnerships, iscommunicating the available evidencerelevance, effectiveness, efficiency and overall sustainability of possible responses2011).

3. The information contained in existing studies and reports should thus be assessedand complemented by additional studies as needed.relevance to this and subsequentparticular):

- vulnerability and adaptation assessments;- economic analysis (at the macro and meso levels)- demonstration or pilot projects

4. Raising awareness and building partnerships relies on three ‘pillars’:

- assessing available evidence, using the findings of relevant studies and demonstrationprojects;

- engaging key actors;

- and developing and implementing a communication and advocacy strategy in support ofmainstreaming (World Bank n.d Guidance Note #1, UNDP



awareness and building partnerships.

dence: key tools and approaches:

Vulnerability and adaptation assessment

Demonstration or pilot projects

Communication and advocacy strategy.

of key actors and partnership building.

Illustration: macroeconomic analysis in support of awareness raising and mainstreaming

Communication and advocacy strategy.

raising awareness and building partnerships

Communication and advocacy and partnership building are required to build a national consensuson and commitment to climate-resilient, low-emission development (UNDP-UNEP 201

requisite for informing and implementing the communication and advocacy strategy, andengaging/mobilising key actors in view of building partnerships, is collecting, assessing and

available evidence on climate change vulnerabilities and impacts, and on therelevance, effectiveness, efficiency and overall sustainability of possible responses

The information contained in existing studies and reports should thus be assessedand complemented by additional studies as needed. A number of tools can be of parelevance to this and subsequent stages of the mainstreaming process

vulnerability and adaptation assessments;(at the macro and meso levels);

projects (UNDP-UNEP 2011).

Raising awareness and building partnerships relies on three ‘pillars’:

assessing available evidence, using the findings of relevant studies and demonstration

eveloping and implementing a communication and advocacy strategy in support of(World Bank n.d Guidance Note #1, UNDP-UNEP 2009 & 2011).

1

partnerships

mainstreaming.

are required to build a national consensusUNEP 2011).

the communication and advocacy strategy, andcollecting, assessing and

on climate change vulnerabilities and impacts, and on therelevance, effectiveness, efficiency and overall sustainability of possible responses (UNDP-UNEP

The information contained in existing studies and reports should thus be assessed as a first step,number of tools can be of particular

of the mainstreaming process (see Module 6 in

assessing available evidence, using the findings of relevant studies and demonstration/pilot

eveloping and implementing a communication and advocacy strategy in support ofUNEP 2009 & 2011).


Assessing evidence: vulnerability and adaptation assessments

5. To inform and convince decision makers(also known as ‘impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessmentsassessments should considerchange. They should typically focus onlevel and time horizon:

- places: land, water, ecosystems, ‘natural capital’ and ‘built infrastructure’;

- people: individuals, communities, ‘human capital’

- institutions: sectors, organisations, how they relate to each other, ‘social capital’Patwardhan 2004, UNDP-UNEP 2011

6. Vulnerability and adaptation assessments rely on a mix ofcurrent exposure to climate risks, assessment of future changes in exposure) and(assessment of current and future vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity) (IPCC 2007c).information required for building the assessmentstechniques, including simulation modelling, expert judgment, impact assessments, scenarioanalysis, workshops, focus groups and stakeholder consultations (World Bank 2010e).

7. A model of Terms of Reference for a vulnerability and adaptation assessment is provided inAnnex 5.1.

8. Geographical Information Systemsmapping of vulnerability factorsUNEP 2011). Combining several vulnerability factors on a map helps visualise their location andassess possible synergies between‘high-risk’ areas and the development and prioritisation ofprovides an illustration of the use of GIS to map assets vulnerable to sea level rise and coastalflooding in the capital of Samoa.

Assessing evidence: macro and meso

9. Economic analysis may alsoEconomic analysis typically look

- the costs of inaction (climatechange and, in some cases, to adopt mitigation measures

- the net benefits of taking action (savings realised minus cost of action2009, UNDP-UNEP 2011).

10. At the macro level, the analysis is focused on the impact climate changemitigation responses, may have on the national economy (e.g. GDP growth, public deficit anddebt, overall employment). At thesub-sectors of the national economy (e.g. value added and employment in the tourism sector,impacts on some key infrastructure, impacts on public health).


vulnerability and adaptation assessments

convince decision makers, the findings of vulnerability and adaptation assessments(also known as ‘impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments’) can be useful.

consider both current and future vulnerability to the effects of. They should typically focus on three units of analysis, at the appropriate geographical

places: land, water, ecosystems, ‘natural capital’ and ‘built infrastructure’;

people: individuals, communities, ‘human capital’, livelihoods;

institutions: sectors, organisations, how they relate to each other, ‘social capital’UNEP 2011).

Vulnerability and adaptation assessments rely on a mix of climate sciencecurrent exposure to climate risks, assessment of future changes in exposure) and(assessment of current and future vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity) (IPCC 2007c).information required for building the assessments can be collected using

simulation modelling, expert judgment, impact assessments, scenariofocus groups and stakeholder consultations (Downing & Patward

s of Reference for a vulnerability and adaptation assessment is provided in

Geographical Information Systems (GIS) tools support vulnerability assessmentvulnerability factors (Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group 2009, UNDP. Combining several vulnerability factors on a map helps visualise their location and

assess possible synergies between them in specific locations; this supportsrisk’ areas and the development and prioritisation of adaptation measures.

provides an illustration of the use of GIS to map assets vulnerable to sea level rise and coastalflooding in the capital of Samoa.

Assessing evidence: macro and meso economic analysis

also be a powerful tool for motivating policy makers to take action.conomic analysis typically looks into:

the costs of inaction (climate-related losses and damage if nothing is done to adapt to climates, to adopt mitigation measures);

the net benefits of taking action (avoided losses and co-benefits obtained minus cost of actionminus cost of action) (EEA 2007, Economics of Adaptation Working Group

, the analysis is focused on the impact climate change, and adaptation andmay have on the national economy (e.g. GDP growth, public deficit and

). At the meso level, the analysis is focused at the level of key sectors orsectors of the national economy (e.g. value added and employment in the tourism sector,

impacts on some key infrastructure, impacts on public health).

2

vulnerability and adaptation assessmentscan be useful. Such

o the effects of climate, at the appropriate geographical

institutions: sectors, organisations, how they relate to each other, ‘social capital’ (Downing &

climate science (documentation ofcurrent exposure to climate risks, assessment of future changes in exposure) and social science(assessment of current and future vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity) (IPCC 2007c). The

be collected using of a variety ofsimulation modelling, expert judgment, impact assessments, scenario

Downing & Patwardhan 2004,

s of Reference for a vulnerability and adaptation assessment is provided in

support vulnerability assessments by allowing the(Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group 2009, UNDP-

. Combining several vulnerability factors on a map helps visualise their location andthe identification of

measures. Figure 5.1provides an illustration of the use of GIS to map assets vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal

be a powerful tool for motivating policy makers to take action.

related losses and damage if nothing is done to adapt to climate-

benefits obtained minus cost of action,(EEA 2007, Economics of Adaptation Working Group

, and adaptation andmay have on the national economy (e.g. GDP growth, public deficit and

ed at the level of key sectors orsectors of the national economy (e.g. value added and employment in the tourism sector,


Figure 5.1 –

Source: Economics of Climate Adaptation (2009)

11. Various tools are used for supporting the analysis, including costanalysis (see Module 7), and integrated assessment models (IAMs)IAMs can combine climate processes,impacts of climate change, andanalytical framework; this allows(EEA 2007, de Bruin et al 2009, Agrawala et al 201macroeconomic analysis, where aggregated costs and benefits are typically considered.be used, for instance, to simulate interactions between adaptation and mitigation, toideal ‘mix’ of adaptation and mitigation, or even to optimise the mix of adaptation investmentsbetween adaptation-specific actions and measures that enhance adaptive capacity (2009, Agrawala et al 2010).

12. There are multiple methodological issuesanalysis, including the identification of direct and indirect impacts of climate change, the isolationof adaptation costs from other costs, the definition of the scope of benefits,market effects and indirect economic effects,benefits, the integration and treatmentadaptation and mitigation optionsinfluence the outcome of the analysis and should thus be carefully consideredexpertise is required to produce robust resultsoverall costs and benefits but also theregions, over time, etc.) (World Bank n.d. Guidance Note #7, EEA 2007,Working Group 2009, World Bank 2010b

Elevation map of central Apia

Exhibit 3 – Highly granular geographic information has been used tosegment assets according to their elevation above sea level

Approach

• Starting point was adigital map ofSamoa with contourlines (2m lines incoastal areas)

• In a second step, amore granularsegmentation ofcoastal areas wasobtained by usingstate-of-the-art GISsoftware

• Finally, geo-coordinates ofbuildings and roads,were used todetermine the assetexposure to coastalflooding risk


Illustration of the use of GIS to map asset vulnerability

Source: Economics of Climate Adaptation (2009) Test case on Samoa – Focus on risks causedby sea level rise, Fig. 03, p. 122.

are used for supporting the analysis, including cost-benefit and costanalysis (see Module 7), and integrated assessment models (IAMs). With ad hoc

climate processes, economic activity, the biophysicaland adaptation and mitigation responses, within a single

this allows for feedbacks and complex interactions to be taken into accountEEA 2007, de Bruin et al 2009, Agrawala et al 2010). IAMs can be particularly useful for

macroeconomic analysis, where aggregated costs and benefits are typically considered.simulate interactions between adaptation and mitigation, to

ion and mitigation, or even to optimise the mix of adaptation investmentsspecific actions and measures that enhance adaptive capacity (

methodological issues to take into account when carrying out such economicidentification of direct and indirect impacts of climate change, the isolation

of adaptation costs from other costs, the definition of the scope of benefits, the valuation of nonmarket effects and indirect economic effects, the spatial and temporal aggregation of costs and

and treatment of uncertainty and irreversibility, the selection ofadaptation and mitigation options (see Module 7 for this latter point). Methodological choicesinfluence the outcome of the analysis and should thus be carefully considered

is required to produce robust results. Ideally, the analysis should consider not justoverall costs and benefits but also the distribution of losses and benefits (among social groups,

World Bank n.d. Guidance Note #7, EEA 2007, Economics of AdaptationWorld Bank 2010b).

Elevation map of central Apia

Highly granular geographic information has been used tosegment assets according to their elevation above sea level

3

vulnerability

Focus on risks caused

benefit and cost-effectivenessad hoc developments,

and socio-economicadaptation and mitigation responses, within a single, dynamic

feedbacks and complex interactions to be taken into accountIAMs can be particularly useful for

macroeconomic analysis, where aggregated costs and benefits are typically considered. They cansimulate interactions between adaptation and mitigation, to test for the

ion and mitigation, or even to optimise the mix of adaptation investmentsspecific actions and measures that enhance adaptive capacity (de Bruin et al

to take into account when carrying out such economicidentification of direct and indirect impacts of climate change, the isolation

the valuation of non-the spatial and temporal aggregation of costs and

of uncertainty and irreversibility, the selection of. Methodological choices

influence the outcome of the analysis and should thus be carefully considered; specialisedIdeally, the analysis should consider not just

distribution of losses and benefits (among social groups,Economics of Adaptation

Building

Road

Elevation

0 m

>4 m

1 m

2 m

Highly granular geographic information has been used to


Assessing evidence: demonstration

13. Demonstration or pilot projects

- help foster interest and commitment among national authorities and other stakeholders;

- test what works and does not work (relevance and effectiveness of specificgiven context);

- support lesson drawing (e.g. on enabling factors) for adaptive management;

- mobilise communities, local/regional authorities and other stakeholders, and developcapacities at this level;

- create both motivation and knowledge foUNEP 2011).

Communication and advocacy strategy

14. Developing and implementing a

- analysing the reasons for action and inaction on specific issues, atand individual levels;

- designing the strategy to support key steps of the mainstreaming programme

- setting specific objectivesachieving measurable outcomes

- defining the target audience to be informed or influencedauthorities; other possible championsstrengthening their profile

- developing clear, policy-relevant messages

- developing materials based on evidence collected (e.g. policy briefs, radio programmes)

- selecting and using appropriate communication channels for the various target groups (e.g.media, sector working groups)

Mobilisation of key actors and partnership building

15. Effective partnership building

- identifying and mobilising key organisations involved in development, notably throughawareness raising efforts targeted

- identifying and mobilising champions, i.e. ‘respected, committed, influential individuals... whoactively support and promote the cause of sustainable development’ (UNDP 2011: 42, quotingBinger et al 2002) and can assume a lea

1 In the specific context of climate change adaptation, champions are also defined ason the role of advocating the integration of climate change adaptation considerations into developmentplanning at national, sector and subnational levels. These include highgovernment officials who serve as ambassadors for mainstreaming climatUNEP 2011: 4). Champions for adaptation mainstreaming could for instance incthe ministries or agencies in charge of food security and disaster risk reduction, theministry in charge of development planning, and also representatives from NGOs, political parties, regionaland local governments (World Bank n.d. Guidance Note #1).


Assessing evidence: demonstration or pilot projects

projects can be very useful in climate change mainstreaming

help foster interest and commitment among national authorities and other stakeholders;

test what works and does not work (relevance and effectiveness of specific

support lesson drawing (e.g. on enabling factors) for adaptive management;

mobilise communities, local/regional authorities and other stakeholders, and develop

create both motivation and knowledge for replicating or scaling-up the pilot measures

unication and advocacy strategy

Developing and implementing a communication and advocacy strategy notably involves

analysing the reasons for action and inaction on specific issues, at the societal, organisational

designing the strategy to support key steps of the mainstreaming programme

setting specific objectives for both awareness-raising and partnership building,achieving measurable outcomes;

defining the target audience to be informed or influenced (e.g. finance and planningother possible champions – see below; environmental agencies

strengthening their profile);

relevant messages, tailored as needed to the target audience(s);

materials based on evidence collected (e.g. policy briefs, radio programmes)

appropriate communication channels for the various target groups (e.g.media, sector working groups) (UNEP 2005, UNDP-UNEP 2009, UNDP 2011

artnership building

partnership building requires:

identifying and mobilising key organisations involved in development, notably throughawareness raising efforts targeted at their specific interests;

identifying and mobilising champions, i.e. ‘respected, committed, influential individuals... whoactively support and promote the cause of sustainable development’ (UNDP 2011: 42, quotingBinger et al 2002) and can assume a leadership role in steering the mainstreaming process

In the specific context of climate change adaptation, champions are also defined as ‘practitioners who takeadvocating the integration of climate change adaptation considerations into development

planning at national, sector and subnational levels. These include high-level decision makers andgovernment officials who serve as ambassadors for mainstreaming climate change adaptation’

Champions for adaptation mainstreaming could for instance include senior officials froministries or agencies in charge of food security and disaster risk reduction, the ministry of finance

arge of development planning, and also representatives from NGOs, political parties, regionaland local governments (World Bank n.d. Guidance Note #1).

4

in climate change mainstreaming to:

help foster interest and commitment among national authorities and other stakeholders;

test what works and does not work (relevance and effectiveness of specific measures in a

support lesson drawing (e.g. on enabling factors) for adaptive management;

mobilise communities, local/regional authorities and other stakeholders, and develop

up the pilot measures (UNDP-

notably involves:

the societal, organisational

designing the strategy to support key steps of the mainstreaming programme;

building, with a focus on

nance and planningenvironmental agencies, with a view to

tailored as needed to the target audience(s);

materials based on evidence collected (e.g. policy briefs, radio programmes);

appropriate communication channels for the various target groups (e.g., UNDP 2011).

identifying and mobilising key organisations involved in development, notably through

identifying and mobilising champions, i.e. ‘respected, committed, influential individuals... whoactively support and promote the cause of sustainable development’ (UNDP 2011: 42, quoting

dership role in steering the mainstreaming process1;

‘practitioners who takeadvocating the integration of climate change adaptation considerations into development

level decision makers ande change adaptation’ (UNDP-

lude senior officials fromministry of finance, the

arge of development planning, and also representatives from NGOs, political parties, regional


- building a political consensus and engaging key organisations in fruitful collaboration, whichmay require:

i. focusing on current climate risks as a starting point;

ii. using national and sectorclimate change–developmentadaptation and mitigation measures;

iii. making the case for climate change mainstreaming in economic terms;

iv. demonstrating the feasibility and costmeasures;

v. participating in regional initiatives on adaptation and mitigation (World Bank n.d.Guidance Note #1, UNDP

Illustration: macroeconomic analysis in support of awareness raising

16. The World Bank recently (2010) published the results of a series of studies (global and national)on ‘The economics of adaptation to climate change’ (2010c). The focus of these studlevel, from the point of view of the public sector. For the purpose of the study, ‘adaptation costs’were defined as the cost of actions attempting to restore prwhose marginal benefits exceed marginal costs, plus the cost of residual damage; only costsadditional to the ‘normal’ costs of development (i.e. the ‘costs of doing more, doing differentthings, doing things differently

17. The studies were based on the following methodological approach

- Projections of climate, water runoff, and baseline GDP and population until 2050 were used asa basis for defining climate change

- The main economic and social impacts were determined for a ‘wet’ and a ‘dry’ scenario,against a baseline ‘no climate change’ scenario. Changes in environmental conditions wereused as a basis for determining changes in economic activity, impactinfrastructure, impacts on people (from the health point of view) and impacts on theirbehaviour (from the consumption point of view).

- On this basis, appropriate adaptation options were identified. Participatory scenarios wereused to determine preferred strategies and the national acceptability of adaptation options,and to select the most appropriate ones.

- The cost of the selected adaptation measures was then calculated, with a focus on the costs of‘hard’ measures (e.g. climate‘soft’ investment (e.g. strengthening of territorial planning and property rights, education)was considered to be ‘zero’ since such measures are desirable anyway for developmentpurposes.

- Finally, national macroeconomic analysis was conducted, using Computed General Equilibrium(CGE) models to simulate the macroeconomic and crossand adaptation to climate change.

18. The global study concludes that the overall cost2010 and 2050 would amount to $70countries’ GDP (0.17% on average, although it is more in some regions and notably subAfrica). However, this amount is not negligible: it is roughly equivalent to the current volume ofaid flows. The highest costs are related to infrastructure, followed by coastal zone protection. The


building a political consensus and engaging key organisations in fruitful collaboration, which

focusing on current climate risks as a starting point;

sector strategies, policy notes and related assessments to highlightdevelopment–poverty linkages and promote the mainstreaming of

adaptation and mitigation measures;

making the case for climate change mainstreaming in economic terms;

demonstrating the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of some adaptation and mitigation

participating in regional initiatives on adaptation and mitigation (World Bank n.d.Guidance Note #1, UNDP-UNEP 2009 & 2011).

nalysis in support of awareness raising and mainstreaming

The World Bank recently (2010) published the results of a series of studies (global and national)on ‘The economics of adaptation to climate change’ (see notably World Bank 2010b, World Bank

studies is the costing of adaptation to climate change at the macrolevel, from the point of view of the public sector. For the purpose of the study, ‘adaptation costs’were defined as the cost of actions attempting to restore pre-climate change welfare standards,whose marginal benefits exceed marginal costs, plus the cost of residual damage; only costsadditional to the ‘normal’ costs of development (i.e. the ‘costs of doing more, doing differentthings, doing things differently’) were accounted as adaptation costs.

based on the following methodological approach (World Bank 2010b)

Projections of climate, water runoff, and baseline GDP and population until 2050 were used asa basis for defining climate change scenarios.

The main economic and social impacts were determined for a ‘wet’ and a ‘dry’ scenario,against a baseline ‘no climate change’ scenario. Changes in environmental conditions wereused as a basis for determining changes in economic activity, impactinfrastructure, impacts on people (from the health point of view) and impacts on theirbehaviour (from the consumption point of view).

On this basis, appropriate adaptation options were identified. Participatory scenarios werene preferred strategies and the national acceptability of adaptation options,

and to select the most appropriate ones.

The cost of the selected adaptation measures was then calculated, with a focus on the costs of‘hard’ measures (e.g. climate-proofing of infrastructure, specific infrastructure). The costs of‘soft’ investment (e.g. strengthening of territorial planning and property rights, education)was considered to be ‘zero’ since such measures are desirable anyway for development

tional macroeconomic analysis was conducted, using Computed General Equilibrium(CGE) models to simulate the macroeconomic and cross-sectoral effects of both the impacts ofand adaptation to climate change.

study concludes that the overall costs of adaptation for developing countries betweenwould amount to $70–$100 billion/year – a rather low percentage of these

countries’ GDP (0.17% on average, although it is more in some regions and notably subunt is not negligible: it is roughly equivalent to the current volume of

aid flows. The highest costs are related to infrastructure, followed by coastal zone protection. The

5

building a political consensus and engaging key organisations in fruitful collaboration, which

policy notes and related assessments to highlightpoverty linkages and promote the mainstreaming of

making the case for climate change mainstreaming in economic terms;

effectiveness of some adaptation and mitigation

participating in regional initiatives on adaptation and mitigation (World Bank n.d.

mainstreaming

The World Bank recently (2010) published the results of a series of studies (global and national)World Bank 2010b, World Bank

adaptation to climate change at the macrolevel, from the point of view of the public sector. For the purpose of the study, ‘adaptation costs’

climate change welfare standards,whose marginal benefits exceed marginal costs, plus the cost of residual damage; only costsadditional to the ‘normal’ costs of development (i.e. the ‘costs of doing more, doing different

(World Bank 2010b):

Projections of climate, water runoff, and baseline GDP and population until 2050 were used as

The main economic and social impacts were determined for a ‘wet’ and a ‘dry’ scenario,against a baseline ‘no climate change’ scenario. Changes in environmental conditions wereused as a basis for determining changes in economic activity, impacts on physicalinfrastructure, impacts on people (from the health point of view) and impacts on their

On this basis, appropriate adaptation options were identified. Participatory scenarios werene preferred strategies and the national acceptability of adaptation options,

The cost of the selected adaptation measures was then calculated, with a focus on the costs ofinfrastructure, specific infrastructure). The costs of

‘soft’ investment (e.g. strengthening of territorial planning and property rights, education)was considered to be ‘zero’ since such measures are desirable anyway for development

tional macroeconomic analysis was conducted, using Computed General Equilibriumeffects of both the impacts of

s of adaptation for developing countries betweena rather low percentage of these

countries’ GDP (0.17% on average, although it is more in some regions and notably sub-Saharanunt is not negligible: it is roughly equivalent to the current volume of

aid flows. The highest costs are related to infrastructure, followed by coastal zone protection. The


absolute costs of adaptation are expected to rise over time, but relative costs topercentage of GDP). Other interesting

- Development is key to reducing vulnerabilityand it cannot be ‘business

- Reducing poverty, developing human capital, strengthening institutionscurrent climate variability

- Adaptation is costly, but good policies and management can reduce the costsflexibility should be built into both policies and infrastructure.uncertainties, decisions on specific adaptation measures (i.e. those aimed at addressingspecific planned impacts of climate change), especially whereinvestments, should be delayed. In the short term, there are plenty of noregret measures on which to focus and which can help reduce vulnerability.incentives for further development in areas exposedavoided.

- ‘Hard’ measures (e.g. infrastructure development) and ‘soft’ measures (e.g. disaster riskmanagement, education and capacity building) are complementary and reinforce each other.In particular, capacity andregard to the choice of ‘hard’ measures

19. These findings, including more detailed ones not reproduced here, supadvocacy, and provide someand planning processes.

REFERENCES:

Agrawala S., Bosello F., Carraro C., de Bruin K., De Cian E., Dellink R. & Lanzi E.Analysis of adaptation costs and benefits usingWorking Papers no. 23. OECD Publishing, Parishttp://www.oecd.org/env/workingpapers

Binger A. et al. (2002) Capacity 21: Evaluation ReporProgramme, New York. Quoted by UNDP (2011)Environmental Sustainability. United Nations Development Programme, New York.

Brooks N. & Adger W.N. (2004) Assessing and Enhancing Adaptive Capacity. In: Lim B. & SpangerSiegfried E. (eds.) (2004) Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: Developing Strategies,Policies and Measures. United Nations Development ProgrammYork. Available from: http://www.undp.org/climatechange/adapt/apf.html

de Bruin K., Dellink R. & Agrawala S. (2009)Integrated Assessment Modelling of Adaptation Costs and Benefitsno. 6, OECD Publishing, Paris. Available from:

Downing T. & Patwardhan A. (2004) Assessing Vulnerability for Climate Adaptation. In:Spanger-Siegfried, E. (eds.) (2004)Strategies, Policies and MeasuresPress, New York. Available from: http://www.undp.org/climatechange/adapt/apf.html


absolute costs of adaptation are expected to rise over time, but relative costs toof GDP). Other interesting findings include the following:

Development is key to reducing vulnerability – but to have such effects, it must be inclusive,and it cannot be ‘business-as-usual’: adaptation must be ‘built in’.

Reducing poverty, developing human capital, strengthening institutions, building resiliencecurrent climate variability and generally building adaptive capacity are priorities.

costly, but good policies and management can reduce the costsflexibility should be built into both policies and infrastructure. Given the prevailinguncertainties, decisions on specific adaptation measures (i.e. those aimed at addressingspecific planned impacts of climate change), especially where they involve longinvestments, should be delayed. In the short term, there are plenty of noregret measures on which to focus and which can help reduce vulnerability.incentives for further development in areas exposed to severe weather risks should also be

‘Hard’ measures (e.g. infrastructure development) and ‘soft’ measures (e.g. disaster riskmanagement, education and capacity building) are complementary and reinforce each other.In particular, capacity and institutional strengthening foster appropriate decision making withregard to the choice of ‘hard’ measures (World Bank 2010c).

These findings, including more detailed ones not reproduced here, support communication andsome guidance for mainstreaming climate change adaptation

Agrawala S., Bosello F., Carraro C., de Bruin K., De Cian E., Dellink R. & Lanzi E. (2010)Analysis of adaptation costs and benefits using Integrated Assessment Models.Working Papers no. 23. OECD Publishing, Paris. Available from:http://www.oecd.org/env/workingpapers.

Capacity 21: Evaluation Report, 1993-2001. United Nations DevelopmentProgramme, New York. Quoted by UNDP (2011) Practitioner’s Guide: Capacity Development for

. United Nations Development Programme, New York.

W.N. (2004) Assessing and Enhancing Adaptive Capacity. In: Lim B. & SpangerAdaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: Developing Strategies,

United Nations Development Programme/Cambridge Universityhttp://www.undp.org/climatechange/adapt/apf.html.

de Bruin K., Dellink R. & Agrawala S. (2009) Economic Aspects of Adaptation to Climate Change:Integrated Assessment Modelling of Adaptation Costs and Benefits. OECD Environment Working Paperno. 6, OECD Publishing, Paris. Available from: http://www.oecd.org/env/workingpapers

A. (2004) Assessing Vulnerability for Climate Adaptation. In:, E. (eds.) (2004) Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: Developing

Strategies, Policies and Measures. United Nations Development Programme/Cambridge Universityhttp://www.undp.org/climatechange/adapt/apf.html

6

absolute costs of adaptation are expected to rise over time, but relative costs to decrease (as a

but to have such effects, it must be inclusive,

, building resilience toand generally building adaptive capacity are priorities.

costly, but good policies and management can reduce the costs. In particular,Given the prevailing

uncertainties, decisions on specific adaptation measures (i.e. those aimed at addressingthey involve long-lived

investments, should be delayed. In the short term, there are plenty of no-regret and low-regret measures on which to focus and which can help reduce vulnerability. The provision of

to severe weather risks should also be

‘Hard’ measures (e.g. infrastructure development) and ‘soft’ measures (e.g. disaster riskmanagement, education and capacity building) are complementary and reinforce each other.

institutional strengthening foster appropriate decision making with

port communication andclimate change adaptation into policy

(2010) Plan or React?Integrated Assessment Models. OECD Environment

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Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group (2009)framework for decision-making. Climate Works Foundation, Global Environment Facility, EuropeanCommission, McKinsey & Company, The Rockfeller Foundation, Standard Chartered Bank & Swiss Re.Available from:http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/Social_Sector/our_practices/Economic_Development/Knowledge_Highlights/Economics_of_climate_adaptation.aspx

ENDA (n.d) Capacity strengthening in climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategyassessments. Course materials developed in collaboration with CIAT, Stockholm Environment Instituteand Unitar in the context of Unitar’s C3D initiative. [Online] Available frunitar.org/c3d/.

IPCC (2007c) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and VulnerabilityGroup II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClM.L., Canziani O.F., Palutikof J.P., van der Linden P.J. & Hanson C.E. (eds.)]. Cambridge UniversityPress, Cambridge, UK & New York, NY, USA. Available from:

OECD (2009a) Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development CoOECD Publishing, Paris. [Read-only, browsehttp://browse.oecdbookshop.org/oecd/

UNDP (2011) Practitioner’s Guide: Capacity Development for Environmental SustainabilityNations Development Programme, New York. Available from:http://www.undp.org/mainstreaming/cdes.shtml

UNDP-UNEP (2009) Mainstreaming PovertyHandbook for Practitioners. UNDPhttp://www.unpei.org/PDF/PEI-full

UNDP-UNEP (2011) Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change into Development Planning: A Guidefor Practitioners. UNDP-UNEP Povertyhttp://www.unpei.org/knowledge

UNEP (2005) Communicating Sustainability: How to produce effective public campaignsNations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Available from:http://www.unep.fr/shared/publications/pdf/DTIx0679xPA

World Bank (n.d.) Mainstreaming Adaptation to ClimateManagement Projects. Guidance Note #1Agenda and Guidance Note #7Washington, DC. [Online] Available from:http://climatechange.worldbank.org/climatechange/content/mainstreamingchange-agriculture-and-natural-resources


Guidelines on the Integration of Environment and Climate Change in Development. European Commission, Brussels. Available from:

http://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/infopoint/publications/europeaid/172a_en.htm.

Climate Risk Assessment: an Introduction. Training materials developed by Nils Brook for thetraining programme.

Economics of Climate Adaptation Working Group (2009) Shaping climate-resilient development: a. Climate Works Foundation, Global Environment Facility, European

Commission, McKinsey & Company, The Rockfeller Foundation, Standard Chartered Bank & Swiss Re.

http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/Social_Sector/our_practices/Economic_Development/Knowledge_Highlights/Economics_of_climate_adaptation.aspx.

Capacity strengthening in climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategy. Course materials developed in collaboration with CIAT, Stockholm Environment Institute

and Unitar in the context of Unitar’s C3D initiative. [Online] Available from:

Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of WorkingGroup II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClM.L., Canziani O.F., Palutikof J.P., van der Linden P.J. & Hanson C.E. (eds.)]. Cambridge UniversityPress, Cambridge, UK & New York, NY, USA. Available from: www.ipcc.ch.

Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co-operation: Policy guidanceonly, browse-it edition] Available from:

http://browse.oecdbookshop.org/oecd/pdfs/browseit/4309171E.PDF.

Practitioner’s Guide: Capacity Development for Environmental SustainabilityNations Development Programme, New York. Available from:http://www.undp.org/mainstreaming/cdes.shtml.

Mainstreaming Poverty-Environment Linkages into Development Planning: A. UNDP-UNEP Poverty-Environment Initiative. Available from:

full-handbook.pdf.

Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change into Development Planning: A GuideUNEP Poverty-Environment Initiative. Available from:

http://www.unpei.org/knowledge-resources/publications.html.

Communicating Sustainability: How to produce effective public campaignsProgramme, Nairobi. Available from:

http://www.unep.fr/shared/publications/pdf/DTIx0679xPA-CommunicatingEN.pdf

Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture and Natural ResourcesGuidance Note #1 – Engaging Key National Institutions in the Adaptation

Agenda and Guidance Note #7 – Evaluating Adaptation via Economic AnalysisAvailable from:

http://climatechange.worldbank.org/climatechange/content/mainstreaming-adaptatresources-management-project.

7

onment and Climate Change in Development

. Training materials developed by Nils Brook for the

resilient development: a. Climate Works Foundation, Global Environment Facility, European

Commission, McKinsey & Company, The Rockfeller Foundation, Standard Chartered Bank & Swiss Re.

http://www.mckinsey.com/clientservice/Social_Sector/our_practices/Economic_Development/Knowl

Capacity strengthening in climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategy. Course materials developed in collaboration with CIAT, Stockholm Environment Institute

om: http://www.c3d-

Contribution of WorkingGroup II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [ParryM.L., Canziani O.F., Palutikof J.P., van der Linden P.J. & Hanson C.E. (eds.)]. Cambridge University

operation: Policy guidance.

Practitioner’s Guide: Capacity Development for Environmental Sustainability. United

Environment Linkages into Development Planning: A. Available from:

Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change into Development Planning: A Guide

Communicating Sustainability: How to produce effective public campaigns. United

CommunicatingEN.pdf.

Change in Agriculture and Natural ResourcesEngaging Key National Institutions in the Adaptation

Evaluating Adaptation via Economic Analysis. World Bank,

adaptation-climate-


World Bank (2010b) The Cost to Developing Countries of Adapting to Climate Change: New Methodsand Estimates. Consultation draft. World Bank, Washington, DC.Available from: http://climatechange.worldbank.org/content/adaptation

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTCC/Resources/EACC

World Bank (2010c) The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: A synthesis reportWashington, DC. Available from: http://climatechange.worldbank.org/content/economicsclimate-change-study-homepage.

World Bank (2010e) Participatory Scenario Development ApproachAdaptation Options. Development and Climate Change Discussion Paper no. 18 [Bizikova L., Boardley S.& Mead S.]. IBRD/World Bank, Washington, DC. Available from:http://climatechange.worldbank.org/content/social

USEFUL WEBSITES:

Adaptation Learning Mechanism –featuring an extensive resources database, country adaptation profiles, country project profiles, casestudies, tools and guidance:http://www.adaptationlearning.net/

World Bank – Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change:http://climatechange.worldbank.org/content/economics


The Cost to Developing Countries of Adapting to Climate Change: New Methods. World Bank, Washington, DC. Available from:

http://climatechange.worldbank.org/content/adaptation-costs-global

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTCC/Resources/EACC-june2010.pdf.

The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: A synthesis reporthttp://climatechange.worldbank.org/content/economics

Participatory Scenario Development Approaches for Identifying Pro. Development and Climate Change Discussion Paper no. 18 [Bizikova L., Boardley S.

& Mead S.]. IBRD/World Bank, Washington, DC. Available from:http://climatechange.worldbank.org/content/social-dimensions-adaptation-climate

– a global knowledge-sharing platform on climate change adaptation,featuring an extensive resources database, country adaptation profiles, country project profiles, case

http://www.adaptationlearning.net/

Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change:http://climatechange.worldbank.org/content/economics-adaptation-climate-change

8

The Cost to Developing Countries of Adapting to Climate Change: New Methods

global-estimate and

The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change: A synthesis report. World Bank,http://climatechange.worldbank.org/content/economics-adaptation-

es for Identifying Pro-Poor. Development and Climate Change Discussion Paper no. 18 [Bizikova L., Boardley S.

climate-change.

g platform on climate change adaptation,featuring an extensive resources database, country adaptation profiles, country project profiles, case

change-study-homepage


Annex 5.1 – Terms of Reference for a vulnerability and adaptation assessment

1. BACKGROUND

[Provide background information:to conduct the assessment? How, by whom and for what purposes will assessment results be usedevidence needed to formulate a natioestimation of adaptation costs; preparation of a national communication to the UN

[Specify the scope of the assessment: geographical scoperegion, district, community, ecosystem, landscape, river basinrequested focus on specific areas, sectors,

[Make reference to any existing studies and information sources that should be used in carrying out theassessment.]

2. DEFINITIONS

The following definitions apply to these ToR and (unless otherwise specified as a result of scopingwork) shall apply to the vulnerability and adaptation assessment

- Adaptation deficit: the failures in adapting to and managing existing climate variability and climaterisks.

- Adaptation to climate variability and changemeasures (including changes in procedures, practices and structures)systems against the current andexploit any opportunities they may generate, and to ensure the sustainability of investment anddevelopment interventions in spite of current climate risks and potentially increasingly difficultclimatic conditions.

- Adaptive capacity: the extent to which a system, ihas access to the information, resources and institutions, required to cope with existing oranticipated external stresseschange, notably through the adoption of risk prevention and mitigation measures.

- Climate: the average characteristics of meteorological conditions, calculated over a long period(typically 30 years or more).

- Climate change: a shift in average climate parameters and/or invariability observed and persisting over long periods (typically decades or longer).

- Climate variability: the range of variation in climate parameters, characterised by the differencebetween observed values and average values calcvariability is an inherent feature of the climate system but tends to be exacerbated by climatechange; ‘current climate variability’ typically refers to variability observed over periods shorter than10 years.

- Exposure to climate change: the extent to whichphysical manifestations of climate change, considering that their character, magnitude and

2 Vulnerability and adaptation assessment is also relevant to Module 6 ‘Mainstreaming CC in national andsector policies, strategies and programmes’.


Terms of Reference for a vulnerability and adaptation assessment

[Provide background information: Who is commissioning the assessment? What has driven the decisionHow, by whom and for what purposes will assessment results be used

evidence needed to formulate a national or sector policy and/or an adaptation strategypreparation of a national communication to the UN

[Specify the scope of the assessment: geographical scope, scale at which to conduct the analysis (e.g.region, district, community, ecosystem, landscape, river basin), time horizon of the study, any

areas, sectors, risks or populations.]

[Make reference to any existing studies and information sources that should be used in carrying out the

The following definitions apply to these ToR and (unless otherwise specified as a result of scopingvulnerability and adaptation assessment:

: the failures in adapting to and managing existing climate variability and climate

to climate variability and change: a process of adjustment involving the adoption ofmeasures (including changes in procedures, practices and structures) to protect natural and humansystems against the current and anticipated harmful effects of climate variability and change, to

y opportunities they may generate, and to ensure the sustainability of investment anddevelopment interventions in spite of current climate risks and potentially increasingly difficult

: the extent to which a system, individual or group has the capabilities, and/orhas access to the information, resources and institutions, required to cope with existing oranticipated external stresses – and in this specific context, to adapt to climate variability and

hrough the adoption of risk prevention and mitigation measures.

: the average characteristics of meteorological conditions, calculated over a long period

: a shift in average climate parameters and/or in the magnitude of climatevariability observed and persisting over long periods (typically decades or longer).

range of variation in climate parameters, characterised by the differencebetween observed values and average values calculated at various temporal scales; climatevariability is an inherent feature of the climate system but tends to be exacerbated by climatechange; ‘current climate variability’ typically refers to variability observed over periods shorter than

: the extent to which a person, a group, a systemphysical manifestations of climate change, considering that their character, magnitude and

Vulnerability and adaptation assessment is also relevant to Module 6 ‘Mainstreaming CC in national andsector policies, strategies and programmes’.

9

Terms of Reference for a vulnerability and adaptation assessment2

ho is commissioning the assessment? What has driven the decisionHow, by whom and for what purposes will assessment results be used (e.g.

adaptation strategy; basis for anpreparation of a national communication to the UNFCCC)?]

at which to conduct the analysis (e.g., time horizon of the study, any

[Make reference to any existing studies and information sources that should be used in carrying out the

The following definitions apply to these ToR and (unless otherwise specified as a result of scoping

: the failures in adapting to and managing existing climate variability and climate

a process of adjustment involving the adoption ofto protect natural and human

harmful effects of climate variability and change, toy opportunities they may generate, and to ensure the sustainability of investment and

development interventions in spite of current climate risks and potentially increasingly difficult

ndividual or group has the capabilities, and/orhas access to the information, resources and institutions, required to cope with existing or

and in this specific context, to adapt to climate variability andhrough the adoption of risk prevention and mitigation measures.

: the average characteristics of meteorological conditions, calculated over a long period

the magnitude of climatevariability observed and persisting over long periods (typically decades or longer).

range of variation in climate parameters, characterised by the differenceulated at various temporal scales; climate

variability is an inherent feature of the climate system but tends to be exacerbated by climatechange; ‘current climate variability’ typically refers to variability observed over periods shorter than

a person, a group, a system is exposed to thephysical manifestations of climate change, considering that their character, magnitude and

Vulnerability and adaptation assessment is also relevant to Module 6 ‘Mainstreaming CC in national and


likelihood and the rate of variation of climate will vary in nature and iworld.

- Hazard: a potentially damaging physical event, action, situation or phenomenon; ais a manifestation of climate variability or change, or a specific type of climate event (discrete orcontinuous, one-off or recurrent), holding the potential to cause harm.

- Institutions: the rules, norms, structures and other social arrangements that shahuman behaviour and interactions, and notably support decision making.

- Resilience: the ability of a system, individual or group to absorb disturbances, overcome andrecover from a critical situation, and generally adapt to stress and changeto natural systems (ecological resilience) as well as social systems (social resilience)

- Risk: the combination of: (i) the probability (or frequency) of occurrence of a defined hazardresulting in adverse consequences; and (ii) theinteraction of the hazard with the properties of the exposed system;the combination of the probability or frequency of occurrence of specific climate hazards, and thesensitivity and vulnerability of those exposed to such hazards.

- Sensitivity to climate variability and changeaffected when exposed to climate variability and change, consideringdisturbances and stress.

- Vulnerability to climate variability and changepeople is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, the adverse effects of climate variability andchange; vulnerability depends oneffects and adaptive capacity.

3. OBJECTIVES

The objective of this vulnerability and adaptation assessment is to identify, describe and assess:

The main vulnerabilities associated with current and

Existing coping strategies and adaptation responses to these risks.

Current and future adaptation needs.

Options and measures to enhance current and future resilience and adaptive capacity.

4. EXPECTED RESULTS

The assessment will be conducted in two phases:

A scoping study will first be undertaken to determine the exact scope and priorities of thevulnerability and adaptation assessment and adjust the methodology, on the basis of a preliminaryreview of available information and initial stakeholder consultation, and taking account of the timeand resources available for the entire exercise.

3 [The scoping study may be undertaken incase, the outcome of the scoping study is the production of detailed ToR for the core studystudy will not include a detailed section on methodology (as this aspect is best left to the experts in chargeof conducting the assessment) but may include some specific expectations. The detailed methodology andthe stakeholder engagement strategadjustment in the inception report to be submitted [one month] after the start of the work.


likelihood and the rate of variation of climate will vary in nature and intensity across regions of the

: a potentially damaging physical event, action, situation or phenomenon; ais a manifestation of climate variability or change, or a specific type of climate event (discrete or

off or recurrent), holding the potential to cause harm.

the rules, norms, structures and other social arrangements that shahuman behaviour and interactions, and notably support decision making.

the ability of a system, individual or group to absorb disturbances, overcome andrecover from a critical situation, and generally adapt to stress and change; the concept may applyto natural systems (ecological resilience) as well as social systems (social resilience)

: the combination of: (i) the probability (or frequency) of occurrence of a defined hazardresulting in adverse consequences; and (ii) the magnitude of these consequences, given theinteraction of the hazard with the properties of the exposed system; climate risksthe combination of the probability or frequency of occurrence of specific climate hazards, and the

nd vulnerability of those exposed to such hazards.

to climate variability and change: how severely an individual or systemclimate variability and change, considering its specific

to climate variability and change: the extent to which a system, individual or group ofpeople is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, the adverse effects of climate variability andchange; vulnerability depends on exposure to climate variability and change,


The main vulnerabilities associated with current and future climate and climate variability.

Existing coping strategies and adaptation responses to these risks.

Current and future adaptation needs.


assessment will be conducted in two phases:

will first be undertaken to determine the exact scope and priorities of theassessment and adjust the methodology, on the basis of a preliminary

formation and initial stakeholder consultation, and taking account of the timeand resources available for the entire exercise.[3]

[The scoping study may be undertaken in-house, provided sufficient human resources are available. In thiscase, the outcome of the scoping study is the production of detailed ToR for the core studystudy will not include a detailed section on methodology (as this aspect is best left to the experts in chargeof conducting the assessment) but may include some specific expectations. The detailed methodology andthe stakeholder engagement strategy would then be part of the consultants’ proposal, with a possibility ofadjustment in the inception report to be submitted [one month] after the start of the work.

10

ntensity across regions of the

: a potentially damaging physical event, action, situation or phenomenon; a climate hazardis a manifestation of climate variability or change, or a specific type of climate event (discrete or

the rules, norms, structures and other social arrangements that shape and regulate

the ability of a system, individual or group to absorb disturbances, overcome and; the concept may apply

to natural systems (ecological resilience) as well as social systems (social resilience).

: the combination of: (i) the probability (or frequency) of occurrence of a defined hazardmagnitude of these consequences, given the

climate risks thus result fromthe combination of the probability or frequency of occurrence of specific climate hazards, and the

an individual or system is actuallyits specific susceptibility to

: the extent to which a system, individual or group ofpeople is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, the adverse effects of climate variability and

to climate variability and change, sensitivity to their


future climate and climate variability.


will first be undertaken to determine the exact scope and priorities of theassessment and adjust the methodology, on the basis of a preliminary

formation and initial stakeholder consultation, and taking account of the time

house, provided sufficient human resources are available. In thiscase, the outcome of the scoping study is the production of detailed ToR for the core study – and the scopingstudy will not include a detailed section on methodology (as this aspect is best left to the experts in chargeof conducting the assessment) but may include some specific expectations. The detailed methodology and

y would then be part of the consultants’ proposal, with a possibility ofadjustment in the inception report to be submitted [one month] after the start of the work.]


The ‘core study’ will then be undertaken in accordance with the results of the scoping studyapproved by and agreed with the contracting authority

4.1 Scoping study

The scoping study will provide:

A description of current climate conditions, observed climatic trends and projected future climateconditions (including a description of prevailing uncertainties), in the geographical area(s)concerned by the assessment and (to the extent possible) at the

A description of the related hazards (e.g. sea level rise, highimpacts.

The identification of population groups, ecosystems, capital assets and economic sectors deemedvulnerable to current and future climate hazards, why they are deemed vulnerable, and what keyclimate-related vulnerabilitiesdeveloped in the core study).

The identification of gaps in knowledge and available inextent to which extra information and data could be acquired during the core study

A description of the impactqualitative) to be used in the core

A description of the methodologies (quantitative and/or qualitative) to be used for identifying andassessing existing coping strategies and

The identification of key stakeholders in the assessment, their iStakeholders include vulnerable groups under current and expected future climate conditions; andthose stakeholders likely to have valuable information on vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity (e.g.NGOs, research organisations, technical experts) and/or to be involved in the identification,selection and implementation of adaption options and measures (e.g. sector authorities andagencies, authorities involved in national development planning, private sector actors andorganisations).

A stakeholder engagement strategy.

An indication of the time frame

[An indication of the maximum budgetbe given here to support ‘realistic’ scoping work

4.2 Core study

The core study will provide a description and assessment of:

The main vulnerabilities and vulnerability driversvariability, and the level of adaptive capacitycapital assets and economic sectors.

4 Assessed vulnerabilities are likely to include: (i) b(e.g. location, topography, other physical attributes of the landscape, ecosystem characteristics) andecological processes; and (ii) social vulnerability, driven by sociofactors (e.g. population size, composition and density, education, incidence and depth of poverty, livelihoodpatterns, land uses, infrastructure, access to services, regulations, governance structures and processes)5 Considering in particular: (i) the prevailing level of awarewillingness of stakeholders to address them; (iii) their ability to communicate risks and mobilise people


will then be undertaken in accordance with the results of the scoping studythe contracting authority.

A description of current climate conditions, observed climatic trends and projected future climateconditions (including a description of prevailing uncertainties), in the geographical area(s)concerned by the assessment and (to the extent possible) at the specified scale if any.

A description of the related hazards (e.g. sea level rise, high-impact storms, droughts) and potential

The identification of population groups, ecosystems, capital assets and economic sectors deemedand future climate hazards, why they are deemed vulnerable, and what key

related vulnerabilities are (preliminary assessment only – this aspect is to be further

The identification of gaps in knowledge and available information, additional data needs, and theextent to which extra information and data could be acquired during the core study

and vulnerability assessment methodologies (quantitative and/orcore study.

A description of the methodologies (quantitative and/or qualitative) to be used for identifying andcoping strategies and possible adaptation options and measures.

The identification of key stakeholders in the assessment, their interests, needs and concerns.Stakeholders include vulnerable groups under current and expected future climate conditions; andthose stakeholders likely to have valuable information on vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity (e.g.

s, technical experts) and/or to be involved in the identification,selection and implementation of adaption options and measures (e.g. sector authorities andagencies, authorities involved in national development planning, private sector actors and

A stakeholder engagement strategy.

An indication of the time frame and resources needed to carry out the core study.

[An indication of the maximum budget available for the vulnerability and adaptation assessment‘realistic’ scoping work.]

will provide a description and assessment of:

main vulnerabilities and vulnerability drivers4 associated with current climate and climatevariability, and the level of adaptive capacity5, in relation to affected populations, ecosystems,capital assets and economic sectors.

Assessed vulnerabilities are likely to include: (i) biophysical vulnerability, driven by environmental factors(e.g. location, topography, other physical attributes of the landscape, ecosystem characteristics) and

ocial vulnerability, driven by socio-economic, cultural and institutionalsize, composition and density, education, incidence and depth of poverty, livelihood

patterns, land uses, infrastructure, access to services, regulations, governance structures and processes)onsidering in particular: (i) the prevailing level of awareness of climate-related risks; (ii) the ability and

willingness of stakeholders to address them; (iii) their ability to communicate risks and mobilise people

11

will then be undertaken in accordance with the results of the scoping study, as

A description of current climate conditions, observed climatic trends and projected future climateconditions (including a description of prevailing uncertainties), in the geographical area(s)

specified scale if any.

impact storms, droughts) and potential

The identification of population groups, ecosystems, capital assets and economic sectors deemedand future climate hazards, why they are deemed vulnerable, and what key

this aspect is to be further

formation, additional data needs, and theextent to which extra information and data could be acquired during the core study.

vulnerability assessment methodologies (quantitative and/or

A description of the methodologies (quantitative and/or qualitative) to be used for identifying andpossible adaptation options and measures.

nterests, needs and concerns.Stakeholders include vulnerable groups under current and expected future climate conditions; andthose stakeholders likely to have valuable information on vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity (e.g.

s, technical experts) and/or to be involved in the identification,selection and implementation of adaption options and measures (e.g. sector authorities andagencies, authorities involved in national development planning, private sector actors and

and resources needed to carry out the core study.

vulnerability and adaptation assessment can

associated with current climate and climate, in relation to affected populations, ecosystems,

environmental factors(e.g. location, topography, other physical attributes of the landscape, ecosystem characteristics) and

economic, cultural and institutionalsize, composition and density, education, incidence and depth of poverty, livelihood

patterns, land uses, infrastructure, access to services, regulations, governance structures and processes).related risks; (ii) the ability and

willingness of stakeholders to address them; (iii) their ability to communicate risks and mobilise people


Existing coping strategies.

Gaps in adaptation to current climate conditions and risks, and possible adaptation options andmeasures to reduce this ‘adaptation deficit

The main vulnerabilities associated with future climate in the context of climate change, and thelevel of adaptive capacity, in relation to affected populations, ecosystems, capital assets andeconomic sectors.

Future adaptation needs, and possible adresilience and adaptive capacity in view of the expected changes.

Conclusions and recommendations on the key features of an adaptation strategy, including anindication of which options and measures should b

The proposed options and measures should be assessed from the point of view of their relevance tostakeholder needs, effectiveness, efficiency, feasibility, acceptability, compatibility with potentialfuture needs, robustness across possible climate change scenarios, and abildevelopmental ‘co-benefits’ regardless of the occurrence of climate changein the face of existing problems may also be used as a criterion for prioritisation.

Where relevant and possible, the presentation of asvulnerability maps), graphs, diagrams,and enhance their use for advocacy

5. METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS

The initial proposal and scoping report should describe by which methods data will be collectedanalysed, specifying where relevant which methods will apply to vulnerability assessment and whichones to the assessment of adaptation optionswith the scale of the analysis, the experience of the expert team and the resources available for thestudy.

The involvement of stakeholders in the study is a key success factorstakeholder engagement strategy as part of the scoping work. Particular attention should be paid toinvolving typically less represented groups such as women, indigenous peoples and minority groups (asrelevant based on the scope of the assessment).

6. WORK PLAN

A preliminary work plan including the proposed time schedule,must be included in the initial proposal. A more detailed work plan for the core study must be includedin the scoping study.

7. EXPERTISE REQUIRED

The proposed team of experts should (collectively) have proven skills and experience in the followingareas [add or remove elements on the basis of needs, focusing on

and resources for action; (iv) the existence of past, ongoing and planned capacity development inithat could support adaptation efforts; and (v) the existence of other adaptation interventions and initiativeson which to build new adaptation efforts


Gaps in adaptation to current climate conditions and risks, and possible adaptation options andmeasures to reduce this ‘adaptation deficit’.

The main vulnerabilities associated with future climate in the context of climate change, and thelevel of adaptive capacity, in relation to affected populations, ecosystems, capital assets and

Future adaptation needs, and possible adaptation options and measures to enhance futureresilience and adaptive capacity in view of the expected changes.

Conclusions and recommendations on the key features of an adaptation strategy, including anindication of which options and measures should be implemented by priority.

and measures should be assessed from the point of view of their relevance tostakeholder needs, effectiveness, efficiency, feasibility, acceptability, compatibility with potentialfuture needs, robustness across possible climate change scenarios, and abil

benefits’ regardless of the occurrence of climate change (level of ‘regret’)in the face of existing problems may also be used as a criterion for prioritisation.

Where relevant and possible, the presentation of assessment results will make use of visual tools (e.g.diagrams, figures and/or tables to facilitate the communication of results

and enhance their use for advocacy and decision-making purposes.

initial proposal and scoping report should describe by which methods data will be collectedanalysed, specifying where relevant which methods will apply to vulnerability assessment and whichones to the assessment of adaptation options. The choice of methodological tools should be coherentwith the scale of the analysis, the experience of the expert team and the resources available for the

The involvement of stakeholders in the study is a key success factor – hence the request to develop aholder engagement strategy as part of the scoping work. Particular attention should be paid to

involving typically less represented groups such as women, indigenous peoples and minority groups (asrelevant based on the scope of the assessment).

including the proposed time schedule, covering the scoping and core studies,must be included in the initial proposal. A more detailed work plan for the core study must be included

proposed team of experts should (collectively) have proven skills and experience in the following[add or remove elements on the basis of needs, focusing on essential skills in view of the context

and resources for action; (iv) the existence of past, ongoing and planned capacity development inithat could support adaptation efforts; and (v) the existence of other adaptation interventions and initiativeson which to build new adaptation efforts.

12

Gaps in adaptation to current climate conditions and risks, and possible adaptation options and

The main vulnerabilities associated with future climate in the context of climate change, and thelevel of adaptive capacity, in relation to affected populations, ecosystems, capital assets and

aptation options and measures to enhance future

Conclusions and recommendations on the key features of an adaptation strategy, including an

and measures should be assessed from the point of view of their relevance tostakeholder needs, effectiveness, efficiency, feasibility, acceptability, compatibility with potentialfuture needs, robustness across possible climate change scenarios, and ability to deliver

(level of ‘regret’). Urgency

sessment results will make use of visual tools (e.g.figures and/or tables to facilitate the communication of results

initial proposal and scoping report should describe by which methods data will be collected andanalysed, specifying where relevant which methods will apply to vulnerability assessment and which

ethodological tools should be coherentwith the scale of the analysis, the experience of the expert team and the resources available for the

hence the request to develop aholder engagement strategy as part of the scoping work. Particular attention should be paid to

involving typically less represented groups such as women, indigenous peoples and minority groups (as

covering the scoping and core studies,must be included in the initial proposal. A more detailed work plan for the core study must be included

proposed team of experts should (collectively) have proven skills and experience in the followingin view of the context

and resources for action; (iv) the existence of past, ongoing and planned capacity development initiativesthat could support adaptation efforts; and (v) the existence of other adaptation interventions and initiatives


and objectives of the study, and taking account of avteam of experts and therefore the range of available competences]

Climate and climate change science.

The following technical domainsmanagement, forestry, disaster risk reduction

Social sciences, with expertise inbuilding).

Development planning and the management of development programmes or projects, withexpertise in (specify, e.g. rural development,

Impact and/or risk assessment (e.g. environmental impact assessment, socioassessment, technological risk assessment).

Implementation of participatory methods (in relation to the stakeho

For each expert proposed, a curriculum vitaeout the relevant qualifications and experience

8. REPORTING

8.1 Scoping study report

The draft scoping report in [(number)(language), is to be presented toshould be expected by (date). These comments will be taken into account in preparing the finalscoping report. The final scoping report is to be submitted in[electronic version] by (date).

8.2 Core study report

The draft study report in [(number)(language), is to be presented to (names and organisations) for commentsthe time of accepting the scoping report]within (number) weeks after submitting the draft reportpreparing the final study report. The final study report is to be submitted insided printing)] [electronic version]

Main sources:

Brooks N. & Adger W.N. (2004) Assessing and Enhancing Adaptive Capacity. In: Lim B. & Spanger(eds.) (2004) Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: Developing Strategies, Policies and MeasuresUnited Nations Development Programme/Cambridge University Press, New York.

Downing T. & Patwardhan A. (2004)Siegfried E. (eds.) (2004) Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: Developing Strategies, PoliciMeasures. United Nations Development Programme/Cambridge University Press, New York.

EC (2009b) Guidelines on the Integration of Environment and Climate Change in Development CooperationEuropean Commission, Brussels. Annex 5 ‘Terms of Reference fo

EC (2011) Climate Risk Assessment: an IntroductionEuropeAid staff training programme.


and objectives of the study, and taking account of available resources which may limit the size of theteam of experts and therefore the range of available competences]:

Climate and climate change science.

domains: (specify, e.g. coastal zone management, water resourceforestry, disaster risk reduction).

Social sciences, with expertise in (specify, e.g. economics, institutions, governance, capacity

Development planning and the management of development programmes or projects, with(specify, e.g. rural development, health, transport).

Impact and/or risk assessment (e.g. environmental impact assessment, socioassessment, technological risk assessment).

Implementation of participatory methods (in relation to the stakeholder engagement strategy).

curriculum vitae must be provided of no more than (out the relevant qualifications and experience.

[(number) copies (double-sided printing)] [electronic version], drafted in, is to be presented to (names and organisations) for comments by

. These comments will be taken into account in preparing the finaloping report. The final scoping report is to be submitted in [(number) copies (double

[(number) copies (double-sided printing)] [electronic version], drafted in, is to be presented to (names and organisations) for comments [at a date to be agreed at

the time of accepting the scoping report] [by (date) at the latest]. Comments should be expectedweeks after submitting the draft report. These comments will be taken into account in

preparing the final study report. The final study report is to be submitted in [(number)sided printing)] [electronic version] within (number) weeks after receiving the last comments

-----

Assessing and Enhancing Adaptive Capacity. In: Lim B. & SpangerAdaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: Developing Strategies, Policies and Measures

Programme/Cambridge University Press, New York.

Downing T. & Patwardhan A. (2004) Assessing Vulnerability for Climate Adaptation. In: Lim B. & SpangerAdaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: Developing Strategies, Polici

. United Nations Development Programme/Cambridge University Press, New York.

Guidelines on the Integration of Environment and Climate Change in Development CooperationEuropean Commission, Brussels. Annex 5 ‘Terms of Reference for a Strategic Environmental Assessment’.

Climate Risk Assessment: an Introduction. Training materials developed by Nils Brook for the

13

ailable resources which may limit the size of the

(specify, e.g. coastal zone management, water resource

(specify, e.g. economics, institutions, governance, capacity

Development planning and the management of development programmes or projects, with

Impact and/or risk assessment (e.g. environmental impact assessment, socio-economic impact

lder engagement strategy).

must be provided of no more than (four) pages setting

sided printing)] [electronic version], drafted infor comments by (date). Comments

. These comments will be taken into account in preparing the finalcopies (double-sided printing)]

sided printing)] [electronic version], drafted in[at a date to be agreed at

. Comments should be expected. These comments will be taken into account in

[(number) copies (double-weeks after receiving the last comments.

Assessing and Enhancing Adaptive Capacity. In: Lim B. & Spanger-Siegfried E.Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: Developing Strategies, Policies and Measures.

Assessing Vulnerability for Climate Adaptation. In: Lim B. & Spanger-Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: Developing Strategies, Policies and

. United Nations Development Programme/Cambridge University Press, New York.

Guidelines on the Integration of Environment and Climate Change in Development Cooperation.r a Strategic Environmental Assessment’.

. Training materials developed by Nils Brook for the


ENDA (n.d) Capacity strengthening in climate change vulnerability and adaptamaterials developed in collaboration with CIAT, Stockholm Environment Institute and Unitar in the context ofUnitar’s C3D initiative.

IPCC (2007c) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerabilitythe Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Parry M.L., Canziani O.F.,Palutikof J.P., van der Linden P.J. & Hanson C.E. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK & New York,NY, USA.

OECD (2009a) Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development CoPublishing, Paris.

UNDP-UNEP (2011) Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change into Development Planning: A Guide forPractitioners. UNDP-UNEP Poverty-Environment Facility.


Capacity strengthening in climate change vulnerability and adaptation strategy assessmentsmaterials developed in collaboration with CIAT, Stockholm Environment Institute and Unitar in the context of

Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II tothe Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Parry M.L., Canziani O.F.,Palutikof J.P., van der Linden P.J. & Hanson C.E. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK & New York,

Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co-operation: Policy guidance

Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change into Development Planning: A Guide forEnvironment Facility.

14

tion strategy assessments. Coursematerials developed in collaboration with CIAT, Stockholm Environment Institute and Unitar in the context of

Contribution of Working Group II tothe Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Parry M.L., Canziani O.F.,Palutikof J.P., van der Linden P.J. & Hanson C.E. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK & New York,

operation: Policy guidance. OECD

Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change into Development Planning: A Guide for

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