Mobility, Transit and Growth: The Role for Markets
Transcript of Mobility, Transit and Growth: The Role for Markets
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Mobility,
Transit and
Growth:
The Role
for Markets
Samuel R. Staley, Ph.D.
Managing Director, DeVoe L. Moore Center,
Florida State University &
Senior Research Fellow, Reason Foundation
Presentation prepared for X International Convention of Economics, Universidad Peruana de Ciencias Aplicadas, 2 December 2013, Lima,
Peru.
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Overview of Key Points
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1. Improving mobility is crucial to urban economic growth and productivity
2. Dynamic travel patterns create a transportation planning challenge
3. US public transit experience provides a cautionary tale for other cities and nations
4. Market and consumer-oriented approaches to transportation and public transit are crucial to ensuring mobility and the long term sustainability of transportation modes—cars and transit
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UNDERSTANDING THE MOBILITY-
PRODUCTIVITY CONNECTION
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Mobility, productivity and the
Opportunity Circle
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& Growth
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Overreach
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Out of Control
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Research on mobility &
urban productivity
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• Remy Prud’homme Labor market expands 15%, productivity increases 3%
• Robert Cervero Increase speeds 10%, output increases 1%
• Daniel Graham Travel speeds increase 5%, productivity increases 1%
Different industries impacted differently by congestion
• David Hartgen Similar to Remy Prud’homme
Downtowns most vulnerable to congestion
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US Research: Benefits of
increased Mobility to Denver
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Out of Control
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US Research: Benefits of
increased mobility to Dallas
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& Growth
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Overreach
Government
Out of Control
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US Research: Benefits of
increased mobility to Seattle
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& Growth
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Overreach
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Out of Control
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• Building
capacity
to keep
pace
with
demand
is crucial
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Capacity must keep pace with
demand: Case of Atlanta
• Capacity has not
kept pace with VMT
• Arterial network is
among the least well
developed
• “Hub and spoke”
system doesn’t
recognize
complexity of
modern travel
patterns
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Government
Overreach
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Access through improved
mobility would dramatically
increase with new investments Atlanta: Current Atlanta: New investments
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Key strategies for improving
mobility and urban
productivity
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1. Manage the system more efficiently
Traffic signal optimization
Road pricing
Improved public transit
2. Build more capacity
Right type of capacity
At the right time
3. Redesign the transportation network
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THE CHALLENGE OF
TRANSPORTATION PLANNING
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What would a new “design”
look like?
• A “spiderweb” approach to design
• More connections through local roads and arterials
• Fewer major “trunk” roads
• More balanced road network
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Challenges of System
Redesign: Chicago
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An Application: Reason Foundation
Plan for Chicago plan
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1a
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Cross Town Tunnel
Kennedy Tunnel
Eisenhower Tunnel
Outer Beltway
Lake County Corridor
Northbrook-Palatine
Elgin-O’Hare Extension
Illiana Corridor
1b
1b Cross Town Tunnel
(Midway extension)
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Houston
--expressways
serve regional
traffic
--arterials serve
local traffic
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Overreach
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Ring roads & the grid: Beijing
Expressways Surface & Underground
Expressways
Key Interchanges &
Access Points
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HOW ARE NEW INVESTMENTS
PRIORITIZED AND FINANCED?
User Fees
Road Pricing
Value Capture Staley, Mobility, Transit
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Out of Control
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Primacy of road pricing
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• Monetize the value/benefit
• Dedicated revenue stream for transportation
projects
Monetizes the value of projects
Sustainable revenue stream
• “Willingness to pay” becomes the standard
for triggering new investments
Prioritizes projects
Identifies value added
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Road pricing enables P3s
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• Road pricing generates a sustainable revenue stream
• Facilities that “pay for themselves” will attract private equity (ideal P3)
• Private capital can leverage public dollars for those that don’t Availability payments
• Even small projects benefit Queue jumpers
Interchanges and ramps
High volume arterials & collectors
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WHAT ROLE FOR PUBLIC
TRANSIT?
Large cities need diverse modes of
transportation
-equity
-mobility
-access
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Cities depend on
layered
transportation
networks and
systems
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Although the
foundation will be
the road network
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Triangulating
urban transport
modes (Based on US conventions)
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Transit has a
crucial role,
particularly in
larger cities
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Need to layer in transportation
alternatives at the right time
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Village Mega City
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PUBLIC TRANSIT IN PRACTICE
A cautionary tale from the US
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Transit
use is
highly
concen-
trated in
the US
market
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Out of Control
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Public transit market share
has stabilized at low levels
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Public transit passenger
miles are recovering overall
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Ridership leveled off
during the recession
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1,500,000
1,700,000
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2,300,000
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2,700,000
2,900,000
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To
tal R
iders
hip
Total Public Transit Ridership, 1990 to 2011
Series1
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US transit’s long-term
crisis
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• Market share is elusive
Commuting is 15% of travel
• Ridership is sensitive to service quality
and price
Transit is an “inferior good”
• Transit systems are faced with chronic
deficits
Riders represent a net loss on the margin
Severe maintenance backlogs
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Direct user fees are not the
principal source of revenues
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Fares 35%
Local 26%
State 26%
Federal 8%
Other 5%
Distribution of Operating Revenues: 2010
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Commercial revenue share of transit
capital & operating expenses (Source: publicpurpose.com)
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Observations on US public
transit policy & investment
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• Investment in rail has minimized value of bus
All successful transit systems depend on a well
functioning bus network
• Taxis and “demand response” modes are
very small part of US market
• No legal role for jitneys and small bus fleets
Private competition is illegal
• Most ridership is dependent population
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CAN US PUBLIC TRANSIT
RECOVER?
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FSU Symposium on Transit
Productivity and Efficiency
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Overreach
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• Three dozen transit industry leaders,
innovators and researchers
• Ten former senior executives
Seven current or former CEOS
• Several prominent transit critics
• Question: Can market-oriented reforms
improve transit productivity and
efficiency?
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Identified barriers to transit
productivity and efficiency • Lack of a business model
• Incentives for efficiency
• Lack of competition
• Lack of focus
• Ideology
• Lack of system thinking
• Transit agency culture
• Failure to enact value
capture
• HOV/HOT lane regulations
• Revenue doesn’t link
consumption with supply
• Abandonment of market
perspectives
• Local politics
• Optimism bias
• Industry lobbying
• Land-use planning
• Organizational inertia/path
dependency
• Funding silos
• Sustainable funding
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Federal Barriers
• Vehicle design limits
• Unfunded mandates
• Davis Bacon & labor regulations
• Congress (earmarks)
• Federal group think
• Americans with Disabilities Act
• Discretionary grants
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Public Private
Partnerships: Denver
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Moving beyond current
conventions
• Market pricing along congested routes
• Transit and taxi vouchers for low-income
users
• Allow private competition
• Focus on core mission of improving mobility
and access
Transit agencies are not economic development
agencies
Transit agencies are not regional planning
agencies Staley, Mobility, Transit
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CONCLUDING
THOUGHTS
And possible implications for
Lima, Peru
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First Principles for regional
transportation networks
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1. Sufficient physical capacity to handle travel demand
New capacity where demand warrants the investment
ITS to ensure network efficiencies are maximized
2. Web-like connections to different components of the road network
3. Market-priced to manage regional flows along major corridors based on consumer demand and choice
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Balancing the transportation
network: Roads
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• Limited access highways carry large volumes of traffic intended for cross regional (county) destinations
• High volume intermediate roads carry intra-regional traffic Boulevards
Queue jumpers
• Well developed arterials for local traffic Multiple routes to multiple destinations
• Multiple connection opportunities Allow the easy diversion of traffic when faced with
bottlenecks
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Moving Forward: Roads
• Adopt user fees to
Prioritize investments
Create sustainable revenues streams
• Expand capacity to keep pace with demand
• Differentiate roads by function within the
transportation network
• Identify synergies with transit
Express bus
Bus Rapid Transit
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Moving Forward: Transit
• User & customer focused transit agencies
• Keep transit grounded in a sustainable fiscal
framework
Revenues tied to use
Spending tied to performance
• Maintain an enterprise model for transit
operations
• Encourage dynamism and innovation
through customer driven adaptation to
changing needs and preferences. Staley, Mobility, Transit
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A few thoughts on Lima
• Embrace “ordered chaos” of combis & taxis
• Curb rights to establish property rights
among taxis and combis
• Auction access rights to fixed route service
Regular bus
BRT
• Allow land uses to respond to benefits
created by access to transportation
investments
• Be proactive with road investments Staley, Mobility, Transit
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