Mobile Networks in a Zettabyte World · 2016: 4.5 Billion Devices/Connections 2011: 5.6 Billion...

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 11© 2010 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Mobile Networks in a Zettabyte WorldTrends from Cisco’s Visual Networking Index

Robert PepperVice PresidentGlobal Technology Policy

Public Policy ForumMobile Asia Expo 2012June 2012

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 2

Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers.

Source: Cisco VNI Global Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

Global Speed DataSample Size > 1M

Global Forecast Data


• One trillion gigabytes• Approximately 1021

(1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bytes)

Put in perspective

By 2016, global IP traffic will reach an annual run rate of 1.3 zettabytes per year

What is a zettabyte?

Source: Cisco VNI Global Forecast, 2011–2016

In 2016, more traffic will traverse global networks than from the beginning of the Internet to today…combined

1984–2012: 1.2 Zettabytes


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

6.9 EBper mo

0.6 EBper mo

10.8 EBper mo

4.2 EBper mo

2.4 EBper mo1.3 EB

per mo

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2011–2016

78% CAGR 2011–2016



More Devices

More Internet Users

Faster Broadband Speeds

More Rich Media Content

Growth Catalysts

Nearly 19 Billion Connections 4-Fold Speed Increase

3.4 Billion Internet Users 1.2 Million Video Minutes/Second


North America

269 Million by 2016CAGR 1.6%

Western Europe


Central/Eastern Europe


Latin America


Middle East & Africa


Asia Pacific

1.7 Billion by 2016CAGR 13.2%



North America


Western Europe


Central/Eastern Europe


Latin America


Middle East & Africa


Asia Pacific




16%

58%

34%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Shar

e of

APA

C IP

Tra

ffic

China and India Korea and Japan



Devices/Connections

Residential2011: 2.4B devices/connections 2016: 5.4B devices/connections (17.3% CAGR)

Consumer Mobile 2011: 5.6B devices/connections2016: 8.4B devices/connections (8.3% CAGR)

Business2011: 2.2B devices/connections2016: 5.1B devices/connections (18% CAGR)

Device/Connection Transitions

Traditional TV Set

Internet-Enabled Flat Panel TV

Analog Electricity Meter Smart Meter

Standard Cell Phones

SmartphonesTablets

Microchip Identifier

PCs

Assets Asset Management

SmartphonesTablets


0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Peta

byte

spe

r Mon

th

Non-PC Based TrafficPC-Based Traffic

69%

22%

78%


29% CAGR 2011–2016

31%


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

Other Portable Devices (2.2%; .7%)

M2M (4.7%; 4.7%)

Home Gateways (4.8%; 5.8%)

Non-Smartphones (5.7%; 2.9%)

Tablets (10.0%; 3.5%)

Laptops and Netbooks (24.2%; 55.8%)

Smartphones (48.3%; 26.6%)


(Figures in legend refer to traffic share in 2016; last year’s projection for 2015)



Fastest Growing Consumer Mobile Services

TAM and Devices for Consumer Mobile Market

Highest Penetrated Consumer Mobile Services

Mobile Consumers2011: 3.7 Billion 2016: 4.5 Billion

Devices/Connections2011: 5.6 Billion 2016: 8.4 Billion

Mobile Video―42.9% CAGR2011: 271 Million 2016: 1.6 Billion

Mobile Service Demand Globally, consumer mobile segment has 7 of 9 services with CAGRs exceeding 20% from 2011 to 2016.

SMS (Texting)2011: 2.8 Billion74% of Mobile Consumers

2016: 4.1 Billion90% of Mobile Consumers

Mobile Service MaturitySMS has the lowest CAGR (8.3 %) in the consumer mobile service category.


Non-Smartphone

20162011

4.3 108

MBs per MonthMBs per Month

M2M 71 266

Smartphone 150 2,576

E-Book Reader 750 2,880

Tablet 517 4,223

Laptop 2,131 6,942

© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Confidential 14Cisco ConfidentialCisco Confidential 14© 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

By 2016, the amount of annual mobile data traffic generated by tablets (13 EBs), globally, will be nearly 2X more than global mobile data traffic generated in 2011 (7 EBs).




0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

IPv6-Capable Fixed Devices IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices

4.03B

Num

ber o

f Dev

ices

(B)

49% CAGR 2011–2016

372M

3.57B

662M



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Peta

byte

s pe

r Mon

th

23 PBper mo

508 PBper mo


(Last year’s projection: 296 PB/month in 2015.)

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In 2011, a 4G connection generated 2.4 GB/mo, 28Xmore traffic than a non-4G connection (86 MB/mo).




0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

4G Traffic Non-4G Traffic

64%


36%


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

Mobile VoIP (0.3%; .3%)

Mobile Gaming (1.1%; 1.5%)

Mobile File Sharing (3.3%; 6.1%)

Mobile M2M (4.7%; 4.7%)

Mobile Web/Data (20.0%; 21.0%)

Mobile Video (70.5%; 66.4%)


(Figures in legend refer to traffic share in 2016; last year’s projection for 2015.)



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices

Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices

22%

78%


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th

Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices

18%

82%



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th


37%

63%



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Exab

ytes

per

Mon

th


25%

75%



0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Peta

byte

spe

r Mon

th

Mobile Data (78% CAGR)

Fixed/Wired (20% CAGR)

Fixed/Wi-fi (34% CAGR) 39%

51%

10%

29% CAGR 2011–2016



0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Peta

byte

spe

r Mon

th



Fixed/Wi-fi (55% CAGR)38%

52%

10%

41% CAGR 2011–2016



0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Peta

byte

spe

r Mon

th

Mobile Data (126%) CAGR)

Fixed/Wired (47%) CAGR)

Fixed/Wi-fi (72%) CAGR)

35%

43%

22%

62% CAGR 2011–2016



0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Peta

byte

spe

r Mon

th



Fixed/Wi-fi (46% CAGR)33%

44%

23%

37% CAGR 2011–2016



During the next 5 years, globalmobile data traffic will grow 18x

More users, each using more bandwidth. Each user will have more/more powerful devices Video driving demand and consumption4G will dramatically increase data consumptionOff-load increasingly important—small cell complementNetworks becoming heterogeneousNeed more large blocks of spectrum—macro cellNeed large blocks license-exempt spectrum—small cellNeed fibre for backhaulNetworks need to be managed to work


Thank you.

IP Traffic Forecast: http://www.cisco.com/go/vni IP Traffic Forecast inquiries: [email protected] Service Adoption Forecast inquiries: [email protected]

Mobile Networks in a Zettabyte World · 2016: 4.5 Billion Devices/Connections 2011: 5.6 Billion...

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