Mobile handset population in Finland 2005-2012

Antti Riikonen / Timo Smura MoMIE project report April 11th, 2013

Mobile Handset Population in Finland 2005 – 2012

MoMIE project: Comprehensive view on mobile service usage

11.4.2013

Department of Communications and Networking

2

Source: Modified from Kivi, 2009

Data collection:

handset population

http://momie.comnet.aalto.fi

MoMIE research:

• Surveys on handset panel

• Handset monitoring

• Mobile operator

accounting systems

• IP traffic measurements

• Web analytics

http://momie.comnet.aalto.fi/

Data collection: handset population

Data collected from mobile operators’ accounting systems • Data from DNA, Elisa, and TeliaSonera • Collected in the end of September, annually 2005–2012 • Feature information from GfK and public sources

Data represents 80-99% of devices in use in Finnish mobile networks (~99% in 2012) • Includes devices observed at operators’ network • Some error due to

- No data on Apple iPhone between 2005 and 2010

- Mobile subscriber churn during observation period - Differences in operator-specific data sets - Unidentified devices and missing feature-data of handset models

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0

2

4

6

8

10

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Dev

ices

M

illio

ns

Shares of device types in Finnish mobile device population

Other/Unknown

Data terminal

Handset

Device types

Share of data terminals growing slowly

• USB modems as the major category

• Tablets roughly 1.5% out of all devices (does not include WLAN-only tablets)

Size of the active device population growing

• Exact size depends on definition

• Here, size of the population assumed to equal the total number of mobile subscriptions

• Relative shares of handsets and data terminals based on MoMIE measurements

Other/Unknown and Data terminals excluded from the rest of the analyses

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* Other + unknown

device types (e.g.

desktop phones)

** USB modems, data cards,

tablets, embedded data

modules


76%

22%

2%

Mobile Handset

Data terminal**

Other/Unknown*

Fragmentation of handset population has stopped

Top models’ share of all handsets has stopped decreasing

• Top 1 model

- 14% (2005) 4% (2012)

• Top 10 models

- 50% (2005) 25% (2012)

Between 2005 – 2008, the number of available models increased, increasing fragmentation

• Since 2008, the amount of available models has remained rather stable

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Top handset models in use in Finland September 2012

More smartphones

included in top models

Top 3 • Models introduced in 2010

• All equipped with 3G connectivity

Top 15 • 7 smartphone models

• Only one model (Nokia 1100) not capable of Internet access

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Rank Model name Intro

yearShare

Change

from '11

Packet

data

1 Nokia C2-01 2010 3.9% Yes (3G)

2 Nokia C5-00 2010 2.8% Yes (3G)

3 Apple iPhone 4 2010 2.7% Yes (3G)

4 Apple iPhone 4S 2011 2.5% Yes (3G)

5 Nokia 3720 Classic 2009 2.3% Yes (2G)

6 Nokia 7230 2009 2.2% Yes (3G)

7 Nokia E7-00 2010 2.2% Yes (3G)

8 Nokia Lumia 800 2011 2.1% Yes (3G)

9 Nokia C1-01 / C1-03 2010 2.0% Yes (2G)

10 Nokia 2760 2007 1.9% Yes (2G)


12 Nokia 5230 2009 1.6% Yes (3G)

13 Samsung Galaxy S II 2011 1.6% Yes (3G)

14 Nokia 1100 2003 1.6% No


Majority of people using Nokia handsets

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Sh

are

ou

t o

f a

ll h

an

ds

ets

Mobile handsets by manufacturer

Others

BenQ/Siemens

Sony/Ericsson

Apple

Samsung

Nokia

Apple (6%)*

Samsung (15%)

Nokia (72%)

Others (5%)

BenQ/Siemens (0%)

Sony/Ericsson (1%)

Nokia’s share is very high,

but decreasing

• 81% (2011) 72% (2012)

Shares of Samsung and

Apple growing

• Samsung 10 15%

• Apple 3% 6%

Others with 5% share

• HTC (>1%) and ZTE (<1%) with highest shares in Others

* No data on Apple iPhone from 2007-2010

Operating systems: mobile phones vs. smartphones

Share of smartphones increasing • 34% (2011) 45% (2012)

• Smartphone definition: Possibility to install native applications. For example, Android, iOS, Symbian, Windows Phone, MeeGo

Mobile phones mainly Nokia Series 40 • Single largest development

platform

• Share decreasing 45% (2011) 38% (2012)

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Sh

are

ou

t o

f a

ll h

an

ds

ets

Shares of mobile handset operating systems

Smartphones (45%)

Others (10%)

Nokia Series 40. 6. ed. /

Dev. Plat. 1.0-2.0 (18%)

Nokia Series 40

5. ed. (13%)

Nokia Series 40

1.-3. ed. (7%)

Nokia OS (7%)

Operating systems: smartphones

Share of Google’s Android

increasing

• Android handsets manufactured mainly by Samsung (73% out of all Android handsets)

Apple iOS also gaining

market share

• Two models (4/4S) generate majority of Apple’s share

Share of Nokia’s handsets

rather stable from 2011

• Windows Phone and new versions of Symbian substitute older Symbian models

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Sh

are

ou

t o

f a

ll h

an

ds

ets

Shares of smartphone operating systems

Symbian^3/

Anna/Belle (7%)

Android (11%)

Symbian

1.-5. ed. (15%)

iOS (6%)*

Windows

Phone (4%)

Others (1%)

* No data on Apple iPhone from 2007-2010

Diffusion of radio interfaces

Older features closing

saturation

• Penetration of FM radio saturating near 80%?

HSDPA, WLAN, and

GPS spreading

increasingly fast

• Diffusion of WCDMA still fast linear

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10

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

GPRS EDGE WCDMA HSDPA WLAN GPS FM radio Bluetooth

Sh

are

of

ha

nd

sets

eq

uip

pe

d w

ith

th

e f

eatu

re

Penetration of handset features in Finland 2005-2012

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012


Input methods for mobile handsets

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Touch screen handsets

spreading fast • Touch only:

18% (2011) 32% (2012)

• Substitutes numeric keypad: 71% 57%

Share of handsets with two

input methods small, but

slightly increasing • Mainly Touch + QWERTY and

Touch + Numeric keypad

• Total share of combinations and QWERTY ~11% (2012)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Sh

are

ou

t o

f a

ll h

an

ds

ets

Num. key.

Num. key. + QWERTY Touch only

Touch + QWERTY

Touch + Num. key.

Num. key. = numeric keypad

QWERTY = QWERTY keyboard

Touch = Touch screen

Touch only = Device has only a touch screen, no physical keyboard

Shares of input methods in handset population


QWERTY

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2010 2011 2012

Sh

are

ou

t o

f a

ll h

an

ds

ets

Shares of touch screen screen sizes and pixel densities*

Touch screen handsets: Screen sizes and pixel densities

Some important characteristics:

• Screen size (Inches)

• Resolution (width x height)

• Aspect ratio (res. width / res. height)

• Pixel density (PPI, Points Per Inch) - Low <= 200 (e.g. 3.5” screen with 320 x 480 resolution)

- High > 200 (e.g. 3.5” screen with 640 x 960 resolution)

Share of touch screen handsets with high

pixel densities and larger screens

increasing

• Data includes Touch only, Touch + QWERTY, and Touch + Num. Keypad -handsets

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* Share of other/unknown screen sizes and PPIs out of identified

touch screen handsets (< 0.6%) not included in figure

High PPI (with pattern)

Low PPI (no pattern)

4-5”

3-3.9”

<3”

Four main aspect ratios in mobile handset

touch screens (2012):

• 3:4 ratio: 13% (out of all touch screen handsets)

• 2:3 ratio: 24%

• 3:5 ratio: 29%

• 9:16 ratio: 34%

Most popular models of the categories

• 2:3 ratio: Apple iPhone 4 & 4S (640x960)

• 9:16 ratio: Nokia E7 & 5230 (360x640)

• 3:5 ratio: Nokia Lumia 800 & Samsung Galaxy S II (480x800)

Touch screen handsets: Screen aspect ratio and resolution

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* Share of other/unknown aspect ratios and resolutions out of

identified touch screen handsets (< 0.6%) not included in figure

3:4

2:3

3:5

9:1

6

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

2010 2011 2012

Sh

are

ou

t o

f all

ha

nd

sets

Shares of touch screen resolutions and aspect ratios*

3:4

2:3

3:5

9:16

240 x 320

240 x 400

480 x 800

320 x 480

640 x 960

480 x 854 720 x 1280

360 x 640

Resolution: Aspect ratio:

Feature diffusion forecast: Logic Combination of handset sales and installed base data

Three datasets utilized:

• Mobile handset population (from operators)

• Mobile handset sales (from GfK)

• Database of handset features (from GfK and public sources)

Forecasting process:

1. Handset unit lifetimes estimated using sales and installed base data

2. Shares of features in handset sales calculated and predicted

3. Diffusion of features (shares in handset population) calculated based on 1) and 2)

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Forecasts for diffusion of selected features

Steady growth in feature diffusion

• WCDMA predicted to reach 80% penetration in two years, WLAN in three years

Features diffuse in bundles

• Certain features found together in feature phones, other features in smartphones

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Summary

Data of the Finnish mobile device population collected annually 2005-2012 from all Finnish mobile network operators

Typical handset manufactured by Nokia (72%) and has a Nokia Series 40 (38%) operating system • Shares of Samsung and Apple increasing

Smartphones (45%) and advanced features spreading fast • Especially technologies providing higher data transfer speeds • Touch screen substituting numeric keypad • Fragmentation of touch screen sizes and resolutions visible

Forecasts predict stable growth of key features

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Further information

Contact: Antti Riikonen, Doctoral candidate

Timo Smura, Post-doctoral researcher

firstname.lastname (at) aalto.fi

MoMIE project: Modeling of Mobile Internet Ecosystem

http://momie.comnet.aalto.fi/

Mobile handset population in Finland 2005-2012

Technology

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