Mobile games: The Next Big Thing (by David Nixon).
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Transcript of Mobile games: The Next Big Thing (by David Nixon).
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The Next Big Thing
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My Profile
• Making games professionally since 1989
• Worked in hardcore, casual, social, mobile
• Shipped hundreds of games
• Passion for Eastern European devs
• Co-Founder “Gemini Hive Inc.”
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Thank You Nekki!
Video, images and logos (c) Nekki, 2012
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Bullet Points• Games are no longer the most used apps!
• 1,000,000 New Smartphone installs daily, Android is CRUSHING
• “Gold rush” to mobile
• Free 2 Play might be winning the monetization race
• Platform agnosticism is becoming a religion
• Big companies spending Big $ to solve the “Discovery Problem”
• New ideas, use cases, tech keeps coming
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Battle for “time spent”Another category of apps gives us a run for our money
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Mobile Social Networking!
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Tough Competition
• 5 Major players - 2,000,000,000 people
• FB/Instagram - $1,000,000,000 is alot of green
• FB IPO - $16,000,000,000 is a TON of green
• GREE, Mixi, DeNA, Tencent blanket Asia with nearly 600,000,000 users and all these co’s are tight with the carriers
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The “Silver Lining”
• Total minutes are up (77 vs 68)
• SN’s are strong enablers for game features
• SN introduce and habituate device features
• Natural partnerships / overlap
• Money to burn
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The Smartphone Revolution is upon us
Unless you’ve been asleep for 2 years, this shouldn’t be a surprise to you
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• 100,000,000+ US smartphone gamers
• 10 BILLION by 2020
“Smart Device” Growth
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It’s global• Growth in every
major market
• Half of predicted consumption growthi is in Asia
• Freemium helps confront piracy problems
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IoS vs. Android
• 2x growth in 2012• Ipad still dominates
tablets market
• Pro - 5x growth in 2012• Con - Fragmentation• Is Galaxy Note a phone
or a tablet?
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Rise of Android
850,000!!(device activations per day)
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Android Fragmentation 1
Source: http://mashable.com/2012/05/16/android-fragmentation-graphic/
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Android Fragmentation 2
Source: http://mashable.com/2012/05/16/android-fragmentation-graphic/
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?Saturday, May 19, 12
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Never count MS out.
They do s*** like this.
HTC Titan -- $0.01
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Devs rush to mobileLike crazed lemmings...
(but maybe you’re this guy?)
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Big social companies moving to Mobile
Zynga, wooga, 6waves, King.com, Crowdstar, Disney...
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[Browser] Social Maturity
• Maturity = harder to succeed from standing start
• Fighting over scraps
• Park research suggests “exit or sell” in Social
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We ‘Midcore’
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If you are considering a switch to mobile, you are not alone, and you game better be...
Bottom line...
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Free-2-Play...yay or nay?Some wise-ass subtitle
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Free 2 Play Economics
• % of Mau paying - 3.5%-10% conversion
• ARPDAU = $.04 - $.05
• $8 - $15/mo ARPPU
• In game purchases are ~55% of total game revenue
• 90% of games spending is F2P today
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Free 2 Play Lifecycle 1
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Free 2 Play Lifecycle 2
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F2P Realities
• F2P is expensive, time consuming, and hard
• It requires constant and ongoing attention
• There is a steep learning curve
• Experience with service-based F2P games (such as online-social) is a major advantage
• When it works, it works really, really well
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Platform SchmatformWho cares, just let me play!
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• 50%+ consumers play mobile games to extend/continue their gameplay experience from other platforms (newzoo)
• Players & Designers thinking less about platform and more about unified UEX
• Middleware providing roads to both technical and marketing access to many platforms
Platform Agnosticism
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Dude, where’s my app?Distribution & Discover
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Appstore Evolution
• Google Android Marketplace and renames it “Google Play”
• Facebook Launches Appstore
• Zynga appstore?
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Customer Acquisition(It’s complicated)
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Download Motivations
• Americans go by price
• Russians rely on friends and download new releases
• Know what motivates your audience when picking your strategy & partners Newzoo Trend Report | Mobile Games | March 2012
Reasons to download mobile games. Russians rely on friends, Americans go for price (2011).
games market research
© 2012 Newzoo | www.newzoo.com | 12
Source: 2011 Newzoo Consumer Research | Newzoo Data Explorer
Gamesindustry.com/blog Aggregated market data
& investment news Smartly tagged
Gamesindustry.com B2B market place >400 companies Free to list your company
Newzoo Free Services in 2012
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The Bleeding EdgeNew Tech Game-Changers
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mmm....Ice Cream Sandwich
• Android 4.0 is finally rolling out
• Impacts phones more than tablets
• It’s a much better user experience
• Fixes some annoying technical issues
• Double-edged fragmentation grenade
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• Feature limited
• Browser performance concerns
• Not useful on Android < 4.0
• But - wow - when it works...it’s really cool
• Possible game-changer for certain types of games
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Connected Screens
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Thank YouDavid Nixon, [email protected]
Don’t forget to play Vector for Online & Mobile!
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Payor Demographic NotesMobile game payors could be women or men (slightly more likely to be men) and 10 - 35 y/o
Asian players are 2x more likely to pay!
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Design Challenges Today’s mobile devices are feature-rich
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Anatomy of a Smartphone
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Design
• Multitouch
• Spotty internet connection
• Location services
• To tilt or not to tilt
• Cameras
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