MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel:...

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MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: (012) 429 3757 Email: [email protected]

Transcript of MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel:...

Page 1: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

MN

F202

3 G

ROUP

DIS

CUS

SIO

N

Lect

urer

: Mr C

Chi

peta

Tel:

(012

) 429

375

7

Ema

il: ch

ipec

@un

isa.a

c.za

Page 2: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Topi

cs To

Be

Disc

usse

d

•Ra

tio a

naly

sis•

Time

valu

e of

mon

ey•

Risk

and

retu

rn•

Bond

and

shar

e va

luat

ion

•W

orki

ng c

api

tal m

ana

gem

ent

•Ex

amin

atio

ns

Page 3: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Ratio

Ana

lysis

•Ra

tio a

naly

sis -

invo

lves

met

hod

s of

calc

ula

ting

and

inte

rpre

ting

fina

ncia

l ra

tios t

o a

sses

s a fi

rm’s

fina

ncia

l co

nditi

on a

nd p

erfo

rman

ce.

•In

tere

sted

pa

rties

-sh

areh

old

ers,

cred

itors

, and

the

firm

’s o

wn

man

agem

ent.

Page 4: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Type

s O

f Rat

io C

ompa

rison

s

•Tr

end

or t

ime-

serie

s ana

lysis

-ev

alu

ate

fir

m’s

per

form

ance

ove

r tim

e

•C

ross

-sec

tiona

l ana

lysis

-co

mpa

re

simila

r rat

ios f

or fi

rms w

ithin

sim

ilar

ind

ustri

es (b

ench

ma

rkin

g)

•C

ombi

ned

ana

lysis

-co

mbi

natio

n of

bo

th ti

me

serie

s & c

ross

-sec

tiona

l a

naly

sis

Page 5: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Cat

egor

ies

Of F

inan

cial

Rat

ios

•Liq

uid

ity ra

tios-

abi

lity

to sa

tisfy

shor

t-te

rm o

blig

atio

ns, e

.g. C

R &

QR

(AT)

•A

ctiv

ity ra

tios-

spee

d to

con

vert

acc

ount

s int

o sa

les o

r ca

sh, e

.g. I

nv.

Turn

, AC

P, A

PP &

TA

T

•D

ebt r

atio

s-m

easu

res p

ropo

rtion

of

ass

ets f

ina

nced

by

cred

itors

, e.g

. DR,

TIE

R, F

PCR.

Page 6: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

FIN

AN

CIA

L RA

TIOS

(con

t.)

•Pr

ofita

bilit

y ra

tios-

eval

uate

firm

’s

prof

its, e

.g. G

PM, O

PM, N

PM, E

PS.

ROA

/RO

I & R

OE

•M

ark

et ra

tios-

firm

’s m

arke

t val

ue a

s m

easu

red

by

its c

urre

nt sh

are

pric

e,

e.g.

P/E

& M

/B

•D

uPon

t Sys

tem

of A

naly

sis-m

ultip

ly

firm

’s n

et p

rofit

ma

rgin

by

its to

tal a

sset

tu

rnov

er

Page 7: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

FIN

AN

CIA

L RA

TIOS

(con

t.)W

hich

ON

E of

the

follo

win

g ra

tios m

ay in

dic

ate

poor

col

lect

ions

pro

ced

ures

or a

lax

cred

itpo

licy?

1.A

vera

ge p

aym

ent p

erio

d2.

Inve

ntor

y tu

rnov

er3.

Qui

ck ra

tio4.

Ave

rage

col

lect

ion

perio

d

A fi

rm h

as a

cur

rent

ratio

of 1

; in

ord

er to

impr

ove

its liq

uid

ity ra

tios,

this

firm

mig

ht …

1.im

prov

e its

col

lect

ion

proc

edur

es, t

here

by in

crea

sing

cash

and

incr

easin

g its

cur

rent

a

nd q

uick

ratio

s2.

impr

ove

its c

olle

ctio

n pr

actic

es a

nd p

ay a

ccou

nts p

ayab

le, t

here

by d

ecre

asin

g cu

rrent

liabi

litie

s and

incr

easin

g th

e cu

rrent

and

qui

ck ra

tios

3.d

ecre

ase

cur

rent

liabi

litie

s by

utilis

ing

mor

e lo

ng te

rm d

ebt,

ther

eby

incr

easin

g th

e cu

rrent

and

qui

ck ra

tios

4.in

crea

se in

vent

ory,

ther

eby

incr

easin

g cu

rrent

ass

ets a

nd th

e cu

rrent

and

qui

ck ra

tios

Page 8: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Sol

utio

ns

•Th

e A

vera

ge C

olle

ctio

n P

erio

d in

dica

tes

poor

co

llect

ion

proc

edur

es (S

ee P

age

60 o

f the

pr

escr

ibed

text

boo

k)•

Opt

ion

3 is

the

best

bec

ause

if y

ou re

duce

you

r cu

rren

t lia

bilit

ies

by u

tilis

ing

mor

e lo

ng te

rm

debt

, you

will

incr

ease

the

curr

ent r

atio

. Not

e th

at o

ptio

n 1

is n

ot th

e be

st b

ecau

se im

prov

ing

colle

ctio

n pr

oced

ures

redu

ces

debt

ors

and

incr

ease

s ca

sh a

t the

sam

e tim

e.

Page 9: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

The

follo

win

g in

form

atio

n is

ava

ilabl

e fo

r JJ

Hol

ding

s. U

se th

is in

form

atio

n to

ans

wer

ques

tions

1 to

7:

Sal

es

R

3 85

0 00

0 C

ost o

f Goo

ds s

old

R

3 25

0 00

0 In

vent

ory

Turn

over

3.

89

Tota

l ass

ets

turn

over

0.

75

Earn

ings

ava

ilabl

e fo

r ord

inar

y sh

areh

olde

rs

R

900

000

Ord

inar

y sh

ares

equ

ity

R

2 50

0 00

0 B

ook

valu

e of

sha

res

R6

Num

ber o

f day

s in

a y

ear

365

1.

Su

ppos

e th

e av

erag

e ag

e of

inve

ntor

y (A

AI) f

or a

riva

l com

pany

is 8

0 da

ys. T

he

AAI f

or J

J H

oldi

ngs

indi

cate

s th

at it

1.

h

as a

hig

her a

vera

ge n

umbe

r of d

ays’

sal

es in

inve

ntor

y th

an th

e riv

al

C

ompa

ny

2.

has

a lo

wer

ave

rage

num

ber o

f day

s’ s

ales

in in

vent

ory

than

the

rival

c

ompa

ny

3.

is m

ore

effe

ctiv

e in

util

isin

g its

inve

ntor

y to

gen

erat

e sa

les

4.

turn

s ov

er it

s in

vent

ory

fast

er th

an th

e riv

al c

ompa

ny

2.

As

sum

ing

that

the

tota

l lia

bilit

ies

for J

J H

oldi

ngs

are

R3

500

000

and

that

the

indu

stry

ave

rage

for t

he d

ebt r

atio

is 5

0%, T

he c

urre

nt d

ebt r

atio

for J

J H

oldi

ngs

in

dica

tes

that

it h

as …

1.

a lo

wer

risk

of b

ecom

ing

bank

rupt

com

pare

d to

the

firm

s in

its

indu

stry

2.

a

high

er ri

sk o

f bec

omin

g ba

nkru

pt c

ompa

red

to th

e fir

ms

in it

s in

dust

ry

3.

half

of it

s as

sets

fina

nced

by

debt

4.

a

low

er p

ropo

rtion

of l

ende

rs’ f

unds

that

are

bei

ng u

sed

to g

ener

ate

prof

its

com

pare

d to

the

indu

stry

Page 10: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Sol

utio

ns

Deb

t ra

tio

(JJ

Hol

ding

s) =

A

sset

sTo

tal

000

500

3

To

calc

ulat

e to

tal

asse

ts w

e ne

ed t

o w

ork

out

the

Tot

al A

SS

ET

S T

urno

ver

rati

o:

Tot

al A

sset

Tur

nove

r =

A

sset

sTo

talsa

les

0.75

=

Ass

ets

Tota

l00

085

03

R

Tot

al A

sset

s =

75.

000

085

03

R =

R5

133

333

Deb

t ra

tio

=

333

133

500

050

03

R=

68%

The

refo

re t

he c

orre

ct o

ptio

n is

2 s

ince

JJ

Hol

ding

s ha

s a

high

er d

ebt

rati

o co

mpa

red

to

the

indu

stry

AA

I (JJ

Hol

ding

s) =

89.3365

=

94 d

ays

Ther

efor

e th

e co

rrec

t opt

ion

is 1

bec

ause

its A

AI i

s hig

her

than

for t

he ri

val c

ompa

ny

Page 11: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Tim

e va

lue

of m

oney

Inst

ruct

ions

:Sh

arp

EL 7

33A

, EL

735:

Cle

ar M

emor

y: 2

ndFN

CA

Set t

o FI

N M

ode:

2nd

FN M

OD

EM

ake

sure

cal

cula

tor i

s not

in B

EGIN

mod

e: T

ore

mov

e, p

ress

2nd

FN B

GN

Set t

o a

t lea

st 4

dec

ima

l pla

ces

HP 1

0B11

:

Set t

o 1

P/YR

: 1

Ora

nge

Butto

n P/

YRPr

ess O

rang

e Bu

tton

CM

ake

sure

ca

lcul

ato

r is n

ot in

BEG

IN m

ode.

To

rem

ove,

pre

ss O

rang

eBu

tton

BEG

/EN

DSe

t to

at l

east

4 d

ecim

al p

lace

s: O

rang

e Bu

tton

DIS

P 4

Page 12: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Tim

e V

alue

of M

oney

Shar

p EL

738

:C

alc

ula

tor s

houl

d d

ispla

y TA

B a

nd D

EG.

(Nor

mal

Mod

e)M

ake

sure

pa

ymen

ts a

re se

t to

1 Pa

ymen

tpe

r Yea

r: Pr

ess 1

2nd

FN P

/YR

Mak

e su

re it

s not

in B

EGIN

mod

e: P

ress

2nd

FN B

GN

/EN

D

Page 13: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Exam

ples

ASS

ESSM

ENT

STUD

Y G

UID

Epp

.38-

40

Page 14: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Exa

mpl

es1.

Cal

cula

te th

e pr

esen

t val

ue o

f a R

25 0

00

perp

etui

ty a

t a 1

4% d

isco

unt r

ate.

2.C

alcu

late

the

pres

ent v

alue

of

R50

000

to b

e re

ceiv

ed a

t the

end

of 2

yea

rs, a

t an

inte

rest

ra

te o

f 10%

com

poun

ded

sem

i-ann

ually

.3.

Cal

cula

te th

e fu

ture

val

ue o

f a R

2 00

0 an

nuity

du

e, d

epos

ited

at 8

%, c

ompo

unde

d an

nual

ly

for e

ach

of th

e ne

xt 1

0 ye

ars.

4.D

onal

d m

akes

ann

ual e

nd o

f yea

r pay

men

ts o

f R

6260

.96

on a

5 y

ear l

oan

with

an

8 %

inte

rest

ra

te. W

hat i

s th

e or

igin

al p

rinci

pal a

mou

nt?

Page 15: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Exa

mpl

e

1.R

25 0

00/0

.14

= R

178

571

2. 5

0 00

0 FV

4 N

5 I

CO

MP

PV

:R

41 1

35.1

2

Page 16: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Exa

mpl

e3.

200

0 +/

-PM

T8

I10

NC

OM

P F

V:

R31

290

.97

4. 6

260.

96 +

/-PM

T5

N8

IC

OM

P P

V:

R24

998

.20

Page 17: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Exa

mpl

es (c

ont)

1.Ja

mes

is c

onsi

derin

g bu

ying

a c

ar fo

r R40

000

. Th

e ba

nk h

as q

uote

d hi

m a

n in

tere

st ra

te o

f 12

% p

er a

nnum

, com

poun

ded

mon

thly

. If h

e w

ishe

s to

repa

y th

e pr

inci

pal a

mou

nt o

ver 5

0 m

onth

s, w

hat i

s hi

s m

onth

ly in

stal

men

t?2.

Joy

is p

lann

ing

to s

end

her p

aren

ts o

n a

crui

se

cost

ing

R15

000

and

has

5 y

ears

to

accu

mul

ate

this

am

ount

. Cal

cula

te th

e am

ount

Jo

y m

ust d

epos

it at

the

begi

nnin

gof

eac

h m

onth

to a

chie

ve th

is. A

ssum

e in

tere

st ra

te is

6%

Page 18: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Exa

mpl

e1.

40 0

00 P

V1

I50

NC

OM

P P

MT:

R10

20.5

12.

15

000

FV60

N0.

5 I

CO

MP

PM

T:R

213.

92

Page 19: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Exam

ple

Shre

ll In

dust

ries,

a c

abin

et m

anuf

actu

rer,

expe

cts

to re

ceiv

e th

e fo

llow

ing

mix

ed s

tream

of c

ash

flow

s ov

er th

e ne

xt 5

ye

ars

from

one

of i

ts c

usto

mer

s:En

d of

yea

rC

ash

flow

1R1

1 50

02

R14

500

3R1

2 90

04

R16

000

5R1

8 00

0If

Shre

ll ex

pect

s to

ear

n 8%

on

its in

vest

men

t, ho

w m

uch

will

itac

cum

ulat

e by

the

end

of y

ear 5

if it

imm

edia

tely

inve

st

thes

e ca

sh fl

ows

whe

n th

ey a

re re

ceiv

ed?

Page 20: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Cal

cula

ting

the

PV

usi

ng S

harp

EL

738

Inpu

ts:

Pres

s:C

FI 2

ndFN

CA

0 EN

T11

500

EN

T14

500

ENT

1290

0 EN

T16

000

EN

T18

000

EN

T2N

DFN

CFI

8 EN

TD

own

arro

w k

eyPr

ess:

CO

MP

NPV

=R

57 3

31

Page 21: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Futu

re V

alue

of a

Mix

ed S

tream

Page 22: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Futu

re V

alue

of a

Mix

ed S

trea

m

(con

t.)

Page 23: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Exam

ples

(con

t.)7

Fred

Com

pany

, a s

hoe

man

ufac

ture

r, ha

s be

en

offe

red

an o

ppor

tuni

ty to

rece

ive

the

follo

win

g m

ixed

stre

am o

f cas

h flo

ws

over

the

next

5 y

ears

:En

d of

yea

rC

ash

flow

1R4

002

R800

3R5

004

R400

5R3

00If

the

firm

mus

t ear

n at

leas

t 9%

on

its in

vest

men

t, w

hat i

s th

e m

ost i

t sho

uld

pay

for t

his

oppo

rtuni

ty?

Page 24: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Pres

ent V

alue

of a

Mix

ed S

trea

m

Page 25: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Risk

Def

ined

•In

the

cont

ext o

f bus

ines

s and

fina

nce,

risk

is d

efin

ed a

s the

cha

nce

of su

fferin

g a

finan

cial

loss

.•

Ass

ets (

real

or f

inan

cial

) whi

ch h

ave

a gr

eate

r cha

nce

of lo

ss a

re c

onsid

ered

m

ore

risky

than

thos

e w

ith a

low

er c

hanc

e of

loss

.•

Risk

may

be

used

inte

rcha

ngea

bly

with

the

term

unc

erta

inty

to re

fer t

o th

e va

riabi

lity

of re

turn

s ass

ocia

ted

with

a g

iven

ass

et.

•O

ther

sour

ces o

f risk

Page 26: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Retu

rn D

efin

ed

•Re

turn

repr

esen

ts th

e to

tal g

ain

or l

oss o

n an

inve

stm

ent.

•Th

e m

ost b

asic

way

to c

alcu

late

retu

rn is

as

follo

ws:

Page 27: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

EXA

MPL

E Q

2 SG

p.4

6

Page 28: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

RIS

K O

F A

SIN

GLE

ASS

ET

(con

t.)

Page 29: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

RETU

RN M

EASU

REM

ENT F

OR

A S

ING

LE

ASS

ET: E

XPEC

TED

RETU

RN•

The

mos

t com

mon

stat

istic

al in

dic

ator

of a

n as

set’

s ris

k is

the

stan

dar

d d

evia

tion,

σk,

whi

ch m

easu

res

the

disp

ersio

n ar

ound

the

expe

cted

val

ue.

•Th

e ex

pect

ed v

alue

of a

retu

rn, k-bar

, is t

he m

ost

likel

y re

turn

of a

n as

set.

Page 30: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Risk

Mea

sure

men

t For

A S

ingl

e A

sset

: Sta

ndar

d De

viat

ion

•Th

e ex

pres

sion

for t

he s

tand

ard

devi

atio

n of

retu

rns,

σk,

is gi

ven

in

Equa

tion

5.3

belo

w.

Page 31: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

EXA

MPL

ES Q

5 SG

p.4

7

Page 32: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

EXA

MPL

ES Q

6 SG

p.4

7

Page 33: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Risk

Mea

sure

men

t for

a S

ingl

e A

sset

: C

oeffi

cien

t of V

aria

tion

•Th

e co

effic

ient

of v

aria

tion,

CV

,is a

m

easu

re o

f rel

ativ

e d

isper

sion

that

is

usef

ul in

com

parin

g ris

ks o

f ass

ets w

ith

diff

erin

g ex

pect

ed re

turn

s.•

Equa

tion

5.4

give

s the

exp

ress

ion

of

the

coef

ficie

nt o

f var

iatio

n.

Page 34: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

EXA

MPL

ES Q

7 SG

p.4

7

Page 35: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

PORF

OLI

O R

ETUR

N

•Th

e re

turn

of a

por

tfolio

is a

wei

ghte

d

aver

age

of th

e re

turn

s on

the

ind

ivid

ual a

sset

s fro

m w

hich

it is

form

ed

and

can

be

calc

ulat

ed a

s sho

wn

in

Equa

tion

5.5.

Page 36: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Risk

and

Ret

urn:

The

Cap

ital A

sset

Pr

icin

g M

odel

(CA

PM) (

cont

.)•

Afte

r est

imat

ing

beta

, whi

ch m

easu

res a

sp

ecifi

c as

set o

r por

tfolio

’s sy

stem

atic

risk

, es

tima

tes o

f the

oth

er v

aria

bles

in th

e m

odel

m

ay b

e ob

tain

ed to

cal

cula

te a

n as

set o

r po

rtfol

io’s

requ

ired

retu

rn.

Page 37: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

EXA

MPL

ES Q

’8,1

0 SG

p.4

8

Page 38: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Exa

mpl

e

Arm

stro

ng M

inin

g Lt

d is

exp

ectin

g to

pay

a

divi

dend

of R

4 a

shar

e at

the

end

of y

ear

1. It

s be

ta is

cur

rent

ly 1

.2 a

nd th

e re

turn

on

the

treas

ury

bills

is 7

%. T

he re

turn

on

the

JSE

All

shar

e in

dex

is 1

6%. D

ue to

the

polit

ical

vio

lenc

e in

Ken

ya, i

ts b

eta

has

jum

ped

to 1

.4.

Cal

cula

te th

e ne

w s

hare

pr

ice

assu

min

g a

cons

tant

div

iden

d gr

owth

of

10%

.

Page 39: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Exa

mpl

e

Firs

t, ca

lcul

ate

the

requ

ired

rate

of r

etur

nus

ing

the

CA

PM

:7

+ 1.

4(16

-7) =

19.

6%Th

en c

alcu

late

the

pric

e of

the

shar

e us

ing

the

cons

tant

gro

wth

mod

el:

gks

D−

1

67.41

1.019

6.0

4R=

Page 40: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Exa

mpl

e

5%R

isk

free

asse

t

1.0

30%

10%

Y

1.5

20%

20%

X

Bet

aS

tand

ard

devi

atio

nE

xpec

ted

Ret

urn

Sec

urity

Page 41: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Exa

mpl

e (c

ont)

1.W

hich

ass

et h

as th

e le

ast t

otal

risk

and

w

hich

ass

et h

as th

e le

ast s

yste

mat

ic ri

sk2.

Wha

t is

the

syst

emat

ic ri

sk fo

r a p

ortfo

lio

with

two

third

s of

the

fund

s in

vest

ed in

X

and

one

third

inve

sted

in Y

?3.

Wha

t is

the

portf

olio

exp

ecte

d re

turn

and

th

e po

rtfol

io b

eta

if yo

u in

vest

35%

in X

, 45

% in

Y a

nd 2

0% i

n th

e ris

k fre

e as

set?

Page 42: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Exa

mpl

e1.

Com

pute

CV

for b

oth

asse

ts a

nd c

ompa

re th

e C

Vs.

The

as

set w

ith th

e le

ast t

otal

risk

is th

e on

e w

ith th

e lo

wes

t C

V.

Ass

et X

: 20/

20 =

1A

sset

Y: 3

0/10

= 3

Ass

et X

has

the

leas

t tot

al ri

sk2.

Sys

tem

atic

risk

= 2

/3(1

.5) +

1/3

(1) =

1.3

33.

Por

tfolio

Ret

urn:

0.3

5(20

) + 0

.45

(10)

+ 0

.2 (5

)=1

2.5%

Por

tfolio

bet

a: 0

.35

(1.5

) + 0

.45

(1) +

0.2

(0)

=0.9

75

Page 43: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

BA

SIC

VA

LUA

TIO

N M

OD

EL

Page 44: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

BON

D VA

LUA

TION

Q’s

3,5

pp.

54,5

5 SG

Page 45: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

BON

D VA

LUA

TION

: BA

SIC

BO

ND

VALU

ATIO

N

Page 46: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

BON

D VA

LUA

TION

: BO

ND

FUN

DAM

ENTA

LS Q

5 p.

57

SG

Page 47: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Bon

d V

alua

tion

•S

emi A

nnua

l Cou

pon

pmts

A c

ompa

ny h

as is

sued

a b

ond

that

has

a

par v

alue

of R

1, 0

00 a

nd a

mat

urity

of 2

0 ye

ars.

The

cou

pon

inte

rest

rate

of 1

0 pe

r ce

nt is

pai

d se

mi -

annu

ally

. The

requ

ired

rate

of r

etur

n is

8 p

er c

ent p

er y

ear.

How

m

uch

will

you

pay

for t

he b

ond?

Page 48: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Bon

d V

alua

tion

•U

sing

Fin

anci

al C

alcu

lato

r

•40

N•

R1,

000

FV

•4

i•

50 P

MT

Com

pute

PV

= R

1 19

7.92

Page 49: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Bon

d Y

TM

•M

ills C

ompa

ny b

ond

curre

ntly

sel

ls a

t R

740

and

has

a co

upon

rate

of 1

0% a

nd a

R

1000

par

val

ue. T

he b

ond

pays

inte

rest

se

mi a

nnua

lly a

nd h

as 1

0 ye

ars

to

mat

urity

. Cal

cula

te th

e Y

TM

Page 50: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Yie

ld T

o M

atur

ity

-740

PV

50 P

MT

1000

FV

20 N

Com

pute

I =

7.56

%

Page 51: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Stoc

k Va

luat

ion

Mod

els:

Th

e B

asic

Sto

ck V

alua

tion

Equa

tion

Page 52: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Ord

inar

y Sh

are

Valu

atio

n M

odel

s:

The

Zero

Gro

wth

Mod

el•

The

zero

div

iden

d gr

owth

mod

elas

sum

es th

at th

e sh

are

(sto

ck) w

ill p

ay

the

sam

e di

vide

nd e

ach

year

, yea

r afte

r ye

ar.

Page 53: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

OR

DIN

AR

Y SH

AR

E VA

LUA

TIO

N Q

7 p.

58 S

G

Page 54: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Shar

e (s

tock

) Val

uatio

n M

odel

s:

Con

stan

t Gro

wth

Mod

el•

The

cons

tant

div

iden

d gr

owth

mod

el

assu

mes

that

the

shar

e (s

tock

) will

pay

di

vide

nds

that

gro

w a

t a c

onst

ant r

ate

each

yea

r—ye

ar a

fter y

ear f

orev

er.

Page 55: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

SHA

RE

(STO

CK

) VA

LUA

TIO

N Q

8 p.

58 S

G

Page 56: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Var

iabl

e G

row

th M

odel

•A

ssum

e A

BC

Cor

pora

tion

curre

ntly

pay

s a

divi

dend

of R

0.50

per

sha

re. Y

ou h

ave

estim

ated

that

the

com

pany

’s d

ivid

end

will

grow

at a

rate

of 1

5 pe

r cen

t per

yea

r for

th

e ne

xt th

ree

year

s. A

fter t

hat,

the

divi

dend

will

grow

at a

con

stan

t rat

e of

6

per c

ent.

The

requ

ired

rate

of r

etur

n is

12

per c

ent.

Page 57: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Var

iabl

e G

row

th M

odel

1

2 3

4

Year

Do

t0.

15,

FVIF

FV

(2) x

(3)

1 50

1.

150

57.5

2 50

1.

323

66.1

5

3 50

1.

521

76.0

5

Cal

cula

te th

e ex

pect

ed fu

ture

div

iden

ds u

sing

the

grow

th ra

te o

f15

per

cen

t.

Page 58: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Var

iabl

e gr

owth

mod

el

(1

) (2

) (3

)

tD

t

0.12

,PV

IF

FV

(1)

x (2

)

57.5

0.

893

51.3

5

66.1

5 0.

797

52.7

2

76.0

7 0.

712

54.2

2

Cal

cula

te th

e su

m o

f the

pre

sent

val

ues o

f exp

ecte

d fu

ture

di

vide

nds u

sing

the

requ

ired

rate

of r

etur

n of

12

per c

ent.

Sum

of P

Vs i

s 158

.22.

Thi

s yie

lds t

he v

alue

of 1

58

cent

s.

Page 59: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Var

iabl

e G

row

th M

odel

•C

alcu

late

the

valu

e of

the

shar

e fo

r the

co

nsta

nt g

row

th p

erio

d fro

m y

ear 4

on

war

ds. N

ote

we

use

the

grow

th ra

te o

f 6

per c

ent a

nd n

ot 1

5 pe

r cen

t.

•D

4 =

D3

x (1

+g) =

76.

05 x

(1+0

.06)

= 76

.05

x 1.

06=

80.6

1 ce

nts

Page 60: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Var

iabl

e G

row

th M

odel

•U

sing

the

form

ula

P3

=

•=

•=

1, 3

36 c

ents

gk

D4

− 0.06

0.1280

.61

Page 61: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Var

iabl

e G

row

th M

odel

PV of

1, 336

= 1, 33

6 x PV

IF3,12.0

= 1, 33

6 X 0.7

12

= 9

51.232

= 9

51 cen

ts

Page 62: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Var

iabl

e G

row

th M

odel

Add

the

PV

s of

the

two

grow

th p

erio

ds.

P0

= 15

8 +

951

= 1,

109

cen

ts=

R11

.09

Page 63: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

SHA

RE

(STO

CK

) VA

LUA

TIO

N Q

9 p.

56 S

G

Page 64: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Oth

er A

ppro

ache

s to

Sha

re

Valu

atio

nP/

E A

ppro

ach

•P

/E =

18

•E

PS

=R

2.50

•V

alue

per

Sha

re =

18

x 2.

5= R

45.0

0

Page 65: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

THE

CA

SH C

ON

VER

TIO

N C

YCLE

•B

oth

the

OC

and

CC

C m

ay b

e co

mpu

ted

as s

how

n be

low

.

Page 66: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

C/A

and

WC

Man

agem

ent

A c

ar m

anuf

actu

rer u

ses

20 0

00 m

otor

s pe

rye

ar a

nd th

e co

st o

f car

ryin

g th

e m

otor

s in

inve

ntor

y is

R2.

00 p

er m

otor

and

the

cost

of

orde

ring

a m

otor

is R

200.

(Ass

ume

a 36

5 da

y ye

ar)

Req

uire

d:

•C

alcu

late

EO

Q•

Det

erm

ine

the

re o

rder

qua

ntity

, ass

umin

gth

at it

take

s 20

day

s to

rece

ive

an o

rder

and

that

a s

afet

y st

ock

of 1

0 m

otor

s is

requ

ired

Page 67: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

Sol

utio

nsEO

Q =

COxsx

2=

2

200

x20

000

x2

= 2

000

units

Re o

rder

qua

ntity

= le

ad ti

me

x da

ily u

sage

=

20

x 36

520

000

=

20

x 55

= 1

096

uni

ts A

dd sa

fety

/buf

fer s

tock

of 1

0:

1

096

+ 10

= 1

106

uni

ts

Page 68: MNF2023 GROUP DISCUSSION Lecturer: Mr C Chipeta Tel: …gimmenotes.co.za/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/FIN...Risk Measurement for a Single Asset: Coefficient of Variation •The coefficient

EXA

MIN

ATIO

N•

50 M

CQ

s1 m

ark

each

•2

Long

que

stio

ns, T

ota

l of 2

0 m

ark

s •

Sect

ion

B w

ill be

from

cha

pter

14

and

15

of G

itma

n•

Tota

l ma

rks:

70; D

ura

tion:

2 h

ours

•St

udy

all u

nits

, ass

essm

ents

&

assig

nmen

ts q

uest

ions