MN Farming Game
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Transcript of MN Farming Game
MN Farming Game
MN’s Agricultural Regions
Arrowhead
Dairy Belt
Corn Belt
Red River Valley
Polk
Stearns
Martin
Renville
Fillmore
MN
Farm
ing
Gam
e
MN Farms with Livestock
Estimated Farms and Size 1984
1972-73MN Farming
Game
Major MN Crops 1973
MN Soybean Acreage 1955-73
1973 Farming Headlines
• 1973 was a record-breaking year!• Corn and soybeans both
experience record harvests• Minnesota’s wheat harvest was
largest since 1899!• Oat production up 15%• Barley harvest up 18%• Sunflower harvest up 9%• The average MN farmer made
$19,337 – a new record
1977-78MN Farming
Game
Departure from Normal Precipitation
1978
Minnesota Crop Yields
Major MN Crops 1977-78
MN Crop Production Changes 1977-78
Corn Production 1978
Soybean Production 1978
1978 Farm Headlines• Farm production costs increase because of
rising oil prices (fuel, fertilizer and chemicals)• Good growing conditions throughout MN!• Record yields for corn!• Above normal yields for soybeans &
sunflowers• Wheat, barley and oat crops down
significantly• Big news was rapid expansion of sunflowers
into MN• Many farmers took advantage of Payment-In-
Kind (PIK) and reduced acreages• Average MN farmer made $15,865!
1983-84MN Farming
Game
1984 Farm Headlines• Farm production costs increase because of
spiking oil prices (Iran-Iraq War)
1984 Farm Headlines
• Excellent growing conditions throughout MN• Soybean crop breaks 1982 production record• Corn production 88% higher than 1983• Record-breaking year for small grains• Wheat & barley yields beat old records by 7
bushels/acre• Barley production exceeds previous record set in
1935
• Farm production costs increase because of spiking oil prices (Iran-Iraq War)
MN Leading Ag Counties 1984
Corn Production 1984
Soybeans Production 1984
Wheat Production 1984
Oats Production 1984
1984 Farm Headlines
• Big farm news in 1984 was low prices
• 1979 Russian grain embargo had created a vast surplus of crops
• Prices received below those of 1972!
• Yet farm production costs up 300% from 1973
• Farm bankruptcies common
• 592 MN farmers lost their farms in 1984
Farm Bankruptcies 1981-84Minnesota, North and South Dakota
175
475 500 525
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1981 1982 1983 1984
Nu
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tcie
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Midwest Farm Bankruptcies 1984
Ohio208
3.9%
North Dakota131
2.5%
South Dakota244
4.6%
Nebraska429
8.1%
Kansas190
3.5%
Missouri382
8.9%
Iowa1,30124.6%
Minnesota692
11.2%Wisconsin
2946.4%
Illinois205
5.6%
Indiana321
8.1%
Michigan85
1.6%
1983-84 Farm Journal
• What crops were most profitable for farmers in your region during this time?
• What was the main reason so few farmers made money during this period?
1987-88MN Farming
Game
1988 Farm Headlines
Crude Oil Prices 1970-2008
1988 Farm Headlines• Farm production costs decline with lower oil
prices• Energy prices down 27% since 1979
Departure from Normal Precipitation
1988
1988 Farm Headlines
• MN faces worst drought since 1934!• Temps reach 110o at Brown’s Valley in late June
• Farm production costs decline with oil prices lower• Energy prices down 27% since 1979
Corn YieldsMinnesota and United States
Soybean YieldsMinnesota and United States
Effects of 1988 MN Drought
1988 Farm Headlines
• Low yields for all crops• Corn and soybeans lowest since 1976• Small grains yields lowest since 1966• Oat crop smallest since 1879!
• Farm production costs decline with oil prices lower• Energy prices down 27% since 1979• MN faces worst drought since 1934!• Temps reach 110o at Brown’s Valley in late June
Corn Production 1988
Soybeans Production 1988
Wheat Production 1988
Barley Production 1988
MN Leading Ag Counties 1988
MN Farm Income
MN Farm Income/Government Payments
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
Total Farm Income
GovernmentPayments
Stability of MN Farm Income
Over 4 Decades
$0.0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
$3.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Year of Decade
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1988 Farm Headlines
• Prices up only slightly• Government payments (PIK) soar!• Average MN farmer made $16,546 in 1988
• Farm production costs decline with oil prices lower
• Energy prices down 27% since 1979• MN faces worst drought since 1934!• Temps reach 110o at Brown’s Valley in late June• Low yields for all crops• Corn and soybeans lowest since 1976• Small grains yields lowest since 1966• Oat crop smallest since 1879!
2007FUTURES CONTRACT
MN Farming Game
March 1, 2007 Futures ContractMN County Agricultural Cooperative
(MNCAC) offers farmers the opportunity to sell their entire crop at
the following prices:
Corn:
$3.16/bu
Soybeans:
$6.75/bu
Sugar Beets:
$47.50/ton
Alfalfa Hay:
$91.00/ton
Barley:
$3.06/bu
Spring Wheat:
$4.79/bu
Oats:
$2.34/bu
2008FUTURES CONTRACT
MN Farming Game
March 1, 2008 Futures ContractMN County Agricultural Cooperative
(MNCAC) offers farmers the opportunity to sell their entire crop at
the following prices:
Corn:
$4.56/bu
Soybeans:
$11.30/bu
Sugar Beets:
$47.20/ton
Alfalfa Hay:
$130.00/ton
Barley:
$3.81/bu
Spring Wheat:
$9.55/bu
Oats:
$3.18/bu
2007-08MN Farming
Game
2008 Farm Headlines
• The drought of 2006-07 ended in August 2007 when heavy rains cause flooding in SE MN
Median Net MN Farm Income
Crop Production Costs
2008 Farm Headlines
• The drought of 2006-07 ended in August when heavy rains cause flooding in SE MN
• Farm production costs skyrocket with rapid increases in oil prices
• Crop prices rise steadily to new records only to have them collapse in July with oil prices and other commodities
• Farmers who sold on futures contracts made out like bandits
MN Farming Game
Summary
MN Farming Cash Receipts 2005
MN Farm Game Conclusions
• Corn = #1• Soybeans = #2• Hogs makes most $
MN Leading Ag Counties 2007
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
All Crops Martin Renville Stearns Blue Earth Kandiyohi
Corn Renville Martin Faribault Redwood Kandiyohi
Soybeans Redwood Polk Faribault Nobles Martin
Wheat Polk Marshall Kittson Norman Clay
Oats Otter Tail Todd Roseau Fillmore Goodhue
Barley Marshall Roseau Polk Pennington Kittson
Sugar Beets Polk Norman Clay Marshall Wilkin
Hay Stearns Otter Tail Winona Morrison Wabasha
Hogs 2002
Number of Hogs
MN Farm Game Conclusions
• Corn, soybeans and hogs concentrated in Corn Belt counties
• Corn = #1• Soybeans = #2• Hogs makes most $
Sugar Beet Production 2002
Total Tons
MN Farm Game Conclusions
• Corn = #1• Soybeans = #2• Hogs makes most $• Corn, soybeans and hogs concentrated in Corn
Belt counties• Small grains (spring wheat, barley and
sunflowers) and sugar beets concentrated in Red River Valley
Dairy Cattle 2002
Number of Dairy Cows
Beef Cattle 2002
Number of Beef Cattle
Chickens 2002
Number of Chickens
MN Farm Game Conclusions
• Corn = #1• Soybeans = #2• Hogs makes most $ • Corn, soybeans and hogs concentrated in Corn
Belt• Small grains (spring wheat, barley and
sunflowers) and sugar beets concentrated in Red River Valley
• Hay, oats, dairy and beef cattle, chickens and turkeys concentrated in Dairy Belt
MN Farm Game Conclusions
• Many factors out of the farmer’s control• Profit depends on weather and market
conditions• Good weather does not guarantee success• Prices highest when product in short supply• Farm income increasingly unpredictable• Markets increasingly influenced by world
events
Average MN Farm Size 1935-2007
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1935
1940
1945
1950
1954
1959
1964
1969
1974
1980
1984
1990
1995
2001
2007
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Ave
rag
e F
arm
Siz
e (A
cres
)
Number of Farms
Average Size
MN Farm Size 2002
MN Farm Game Conclusions
• Number of farms declining• Remaining farms getting larger (1972 = 272
acres, 2007 = 347 acres)
Farm Population as a Percent of Total Population
0
10
20
30
40
50
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
Per
cent
age
US
MN
MN Farm Game Conclusions
• Number of farms declining• Average farm size increasing (1972 = 272 acres,
2007 = 347 acres)
• Fewer people involved in farming
MN County Population Change 2000-2005
MN Farm Game Conclusions
• Number of farms declining• Average farm size increasing (1972 = 272 acres,
2007 = 347 acres)• Fewer people involved in farming• Population decline occurring in many
farming counties
MN Farm Game Conclusions
• Number of farms declining• Average farm size increasing (1972 = 272 acres,
2007 = 347 acres)• Fewer people involved in farming• Population decline occurring in many farming
counties• Many leaving farms for higher paying jobs in
the Twin Cities
2007 MN Farmland Values
Average Price Market Per Acre: Value: