MLA & AWI Wool and Sheepmeat

Survey - June 2016

Lamb Forecasting Advisory

Committee Meeting

20 July 2016

Survey Responses

Survey Responses

Seasonal Conditions: Rainfall Mar-May 2016

MARCH

APRIL

MAY

Source: BOM

Seasonal Conditions: Rainfall June 2016

8% above average

12% average

36% below average

44% drought

27% above average

36% average

23% below average

8% drought

6% too wet

17% above average

47% average

22% below average

10% drought

4% too wet

14% above average

57% average

25% below average

3% drought

84% above average

12% average

2% below average

1% too wet

Source: BOM

AUSTRALIA

• Improved seasonal conditions

• 714,900 more (↑2%) breeding ewes on hand year-on-year,

at 41.7 million head.

• 961,100 more (↑4%) lambs on hand year-on-year,

at 26 million head

• Expected lamb sales 9.6 million head (↑12%)

• Merino marking rate = 84%

• All other breeds marking rate = 106%

AUSTRALIA

AUSTRALIA

AUSTRALIA

AUSTRALIA

AUSTRALIA

June 2015 June 2016

Breeding ewes on

hand

40.96 million 41.68 million

Lambs on Hand 25.05 million 26.0 million

Expected lamb sales 8.5 million 9.6 million

Merino marking rate 86% 84%

All other breeds

marking rate

102% 106%

NSW

• Total breeding ewes lifted 1%, to 15.3 million head

• 519,300 more (↑5%) lambs on hand, at 10.2 million head

• Expected lamb sales 4.5 million head (↑ 23%)

• Merino marking rate = 74%

• All other breeds marking rate = 110%

NSW

NSW

NSW

NSW

June 2015 June 2016

Breeding ewes on

hand

15.2 million 15.3 million

Lambs on Hand 9.6 million 10.2 million

Expected lamb sales 3.6 million 4.5 million

Merino marking rate 85% 74%

All other breeds

marking rate

98% 110%

SA

• Total breeding ewes lifted 2%, to 6.7 million head

• 121,600 more (↑3%) lambs on hand, at 4.5 million head

• Expected lamb sales 1.7 million head

• Merino marking rate = 99%

• All other breeds marking rate = 104%

SA

SA

SA

SA

June 2015 June 2016

Breeding ewes on

hand

6.6 million 6.7 million

Lambs on Hand 4.4 million 4.5 million

Expected lamb sales 1.7 million 1.7 million

Merino marking rate 92% 99%

All other breeds

marking rate

107% 104%

TASMANIA

• Total breeding ewes increased 10%, to 1.3 million head

• ↓8% lambs on hand, at 544,800 head

• Expected lamb sales 178,500 head (↓21%)

TASMANIA

TASMANIA

TASMANIA

June 2015 June 2016

Breeding ewes on

hand

1.1 million 1.3 million

Lambs on Hand 593,000 544,800

Expected lamb sales 226,900 178,500

VICTORIA

• Total breeding ewes declined 3%, to 7.65 million head

• ↓1% lambs on hand, at 4.25 million head

• Expected lamb sales 1.3 million head (↑ 6%)

• Merino marking rate = 83%

• All other breeds marking rate = 111%

VICTORIA

VICTORIA

VICTORIA & TASMANIA

VICTORIA

June 2015 June 2016

Breeding ewes on

hand

7.85 million 7.65 million

Lambs on Hand 4.3 million 4.25 million

Expected lamb sales 1.2 million 1.3 million

Merino marking rate 86% 83%

All other breeds

marking rate

105% 111%

WA

• Total breeding ewes ↑3%, at 8.6 million head

• Lambs on hand ↑4%, at 5.5 million head

• Expected lamb sales 1.6 million head (↑11%)

• Merino marking rate = 81%

• All other breeds marking rate = 89%

WA

WA

WA

WA

June 2015 June 2016

Breeding ewes on

hand

8.4 million 8.6 million

Lambs on Hand 5.3 million 5.5 million

Expected lamb sales 1.5 million 1.6 million

Merino marking rate 85% 81%

All other breeds

marking rate

94% 89%

Queensland

• Total breeding ewes ↑ 17%, to 2.1 million head

• Lambs on hand ↑ 28%, to 985,300 head

• Expected lamb sales 220,700 head (↑1%)

• Merino marking rate = 56%

• All other breeds marking rate = 100%

Queensland

Queensland

Queensland

Queensland

June 2015 June 2016

Breeding ewes on

hand

1.8 million 2.1 million

Lambs on Hand 768,500 985,300

Expected lamb sales 217,800 220,700

Merino marking rate 72% 56%

All other breeds

marking rate

101% 100%

Disclaimer

Information contained in this publication is obtained from a variety of third party

sources. To the best of MLA’s knowledge the information accurately depicts existing

and likely future market demand. However, MLA has not verified all third party

information, and forecasts and projections are imprecise and subject to a high degree

of uncertainty.

MLA makes no representations and to the extent permitted by law excludes all

warranties in relation to the information contained in this publication. MLA is not liable

to you or to any third party for any losses, costs or expenses, including any direct,

indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit,

resulting from any use or misuse of the information contained in this publication.