Seite 1Synergies, Tunisia – Anselm Duchrow 12.04.2023

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Mitigation and Adaptation Synergies in Tunisia

COP19-Warsaw Nov 14, 2013 Win-win approaches to low-emission and climate-resilient

development: A focus on synergies

Anselm Duchrow

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Content

12.04.2023

1. Climate Change in Tunisia – the Challenges

2. The Water-Energy and food security nexus

3. Climate and Sustainable Development Policies

4. NAMAs contributing to mitigation and more social and ecological resilience

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Projected Increase of temperatures (°C) until 2020 and 2050 in Tunisia: +0,8°C to +1,3°C by 2020

Projected decrease (%) of average annual precipitation by 2020 and 2050:-6% to -10% by 2020

Source: Stratégie Nationale sur le Changement Climatique en Tunisie (SNCC)

Scenarios: Temperature and Precipitation

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Scenarios: Water

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• Climated-induced sea level rise: 10-12 cm (2030) and 17-22cm (2050)

• -28% of phreatic water ressources, coastal aquifers, and non renewable aquifers, -5% of surface water

• Demographic growth, urbanization and economic development lead to increasing water demand

• Increase of salinity of coastal aquifers, water demand for irrigation, and intrusion of marine water

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Challenges: Adaptation

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• Tourism: Increase of heat periods, climate induced sea level rise threatening touristic infrastructure, reemergence of

• Agriculture: increase in waterdemand for irrigation, loss of arable land, intensification of land use in vulnerable areas; decrease of production and yield

• Ecosystems: degradation of pastoral ecosystems in the Centre and South (ex. Esparto and Coark Oak)

• Oasis Agriculture: 10% of the Tunisian population depends on Oasis agriculture, which faces diminishing variety of dates, soil salinization, and overexploitation of water ressources

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With 3.4 TE CO2 per capita, Tunisia is among the least « emission-intensive » developing countries (world average: 4,5 t/capita)

• Large mitigation potential: 151 million TECO2 from 2008-2020 (Energy 73%, Agriculture 14%, waste 13%)

• CO² intensity decreased by 25% between 1990 and 2009, but economic growth leeds to steep increase of CO² per capita

Energy55%

Agricul-ture20%

Industry11%

Land-Use Change

9%Waste

5%

GHG Emissions per sector

Source: SNCC Evolution of GHG Emissions per capita in Tunisia in Tons of CO2 from 1968 to 2008

Challenges: Mitigation

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The water, energy and food security nexus

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Source: Stockholm Environment Institute

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Tunisia’s National Climate Change Strategy (SNCC)- Scenario analysis

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S1Economic

Growth

S3Ecological Ambition

S2Social

Cohesion

• Scenario I favors economic growth in a context of weak global climate governance.

• Scenario II focuses on poverty reduction and social and spatial equality, as a response to the revolution.

• Scenario III assumes that Tunisia adapts its economic and social development to to a context of strong global climate governance

Source: Stratégie Nationale sur le Changement Climatique en Tunisie (SNCC)

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A Strategic Vision for Tunisia’s Future: A synthesis of 3 Scenarios

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• Social and economic development in the short term with some safeguards (e.g. ressource control) to guarantee ecological development in the medium term

• Objective of reducing CO2 intensity by more than 40% until 2030 and stabilize emissions by 2050

• A proactive adaptation policy largely determined by international aid (e.g. Green Climate Fund)

Key indicators for Tunisia’s strategic vision of the future (GDP, CO2 intensity and CO2 emissions) as a basis of 100

Source: Stratégie Nationale sur le Changement Climatique en Tunisie (SNCC)

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NAMA Renewable Energy

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• Tunisian Solar Plan aims at achieving 20% renewable energy in 2020 and 30% in 2030

• Tunisia suffers from a structural energy deficit; 10% of its state budget is spent on energy subsidies; consumption of electricity is steadily increasing

Expected Reduction Impact and Types of Mitigation Measures

Co-benefits

PV Cells, Wind parcs and CSP will generate energy savings from 2013-2030 of around 13300 ktep. • 58% emanate from wind energy, 24% from

PV• Installed wind parcs will reduce CO2

emissions by 32 MtCO2 by 2030

• Energy security• Green Jobs: 7700 during construction; 2600

maintanance (cumulated , conservative assumption of no

local manufacturing)• Economic gains from energy savings of 11Bi €

(2013-2030)• Infrastructure: Improvement of national electricity

grid

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Expected Reduction Impact and Types of Mitigation Measures

Co-benefits

Over 8 million tonnes CO2 equivalent (MtCO2) from 2014-2020, achieved by …

1. Energy efficiency measures: 1.7 MtCO22. Renewable Energy (wind): 2.5 MtCO23. Reduction of clinker/cement ratio: 1.2 MtCO24. Co-processing (use of waste as fuel): 2.6

MtCO2

• Reduces overall energy consumption and increases RE production-> energy security

• Relieves state budget for subsidies • increases the sector‘s competitiveness • Improves waste management

NAMA cement sector

• With 6.4 m tCO² in 2012 and carbon intensity of 0.810 tCO2/t, cement is the most emission intensive industrial sector in Tunisia and accounts for 10% of Tunisian GHG Emissions

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• Agriculture represents 16% of Tunisian GDP, 20% of employment and is presonsible for 20% of national emissions (Forestry: 13%)

NAMA Agriculture

Expected Reduction Impact and Types of Mitigation Measures

Co-benefits

Mitigation potential of 2.4 MtCO², including:1. Nitrous-Oxide (N²O): Improved fertilizer mangement

and promotion of organic agriculture2. Methane (CH4): Better livestock management through:

improvement of enteric fermentation process of ruminants; and manure management

3. CO2: Improved Forest Management, reforestation, agroforestry, use of windbreakers and other anti-desertification measures

• Agricultural: Improved performance (better fertilizer management and soil fertility);

• Social: Jobs secured and created; rural poverty improved

• Environmental: positive impact on biodiversity, water quality, desertification and soil fertility

-> more resilience to external chocks; less water and energy

Agricul-tural Soils

63%

Enteric Fermenta-tion29%

Manure Management7%

Others1%

GHG Emissions in Agriculture

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ResponsibleAnselm Duchrow

Author(s)Anselm Duchrow, Ole Ohlhoff

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LayoutOle Ohlhoff

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