MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

Leah Raphael [email protected]

2016 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference Notes

Moneyball Reunion

Speakers: Billy Beane, VP of Operations for the Oakland Athletics; Bill James, Sports

Analytics Writer; Michael Lewis, Author of Moneyball; and Jackie MacMullan, Senior Writer at ESPN

Lewis had never written a book on sports but came about the A’s story in a time where salaries were exploding and class warfare in baseball was emerging, so

how were they winning with so little money?

2002 MLB Draft

o Imagine if they got two everyday MLB players out of the 50 rounds of the draft, normally only one player every round makes it

o How to maximize picks with a lower budget by looking for guys with

deceiving appearance because that would lower their market value

Baseball has its flaws as a product

o Getting rid of the balk rule would lead to less stoppage of the game o The pitcher should be able to stand on the mound and do whatever he

wants Same as basketball without a fast break Allows for a live ball game if fakes are allowed

Quarterback and Pitcher control the game, you cant win with a bottom 10 QB

On female reporters: women never think they’re too cool to ask questions

Some draft decisions fail because of the lack of effort to get personal information and learn who these players are when making employment decisions

o Statistics does not equal character

Moneyball led to college player’s value increasing because it focused on the

merits of drafting more developed players


Competitive Advantage - Filling the Seats: Perception Versus Reality on What

Drives Fan Experience

Speakers: Mike Bernstein, VP Research and Insights at Wasserman; Jeff Nelson of Navigate

The power of experience is what brings people to games

What makes a game a bucket list experience versus an every day luxury

57% of fans stay at home

Fan growth depends on the price of ticket

Fan Experience Study

o Sample of 8,500 fans, 141 teams, and 130 venues in 20 major markets o Purpose

Understand fan priorities Reveal and benchmark performance Inform strategy with actionable insights

o Fans were surveyed about what they thought was important to experience prior to an event and then again about their experience at the event

Fans ranked food quality and scoreboard as low on the importance scale, but those were the top two aspects that defined their experience after a game

Fans ranked technology (wifi, apps, etc) as less important to their in game experience

Fan focus and game entertainment ranked #2 and #3 behind overall atmosphere when in stadiums

Cost was the lowest ranking factor of fan experience

Atmosphere was the most important factor across leagues Customer service ranks #2 most important factor with NFL teams

Hispanic fans care about the players the most – will attend games specifically to see a certain player

o Fans said their favorite part of attending the event was socializing with

other fans during tailgates or after games Arizona Cardinals hold tailgates with Cornhole games and TVs to

watch earlier games

o The higher the income of a fan, the more likely they are to attend Less than ¼ of the US population is able to attend games because

of the cost Leagues need to find ways to appeal to the masses to stay relevant

AT&T Stadium ranks the highest in fan satisfaction for a venue and the Patriots

rank highest for a team

Fenway Park Case Study

o Ranks high locally and nationally, but falls short in categories like bathroom cleanliness

It’s critical to move beyond basic fan feedback

New solutions around pricing and affordability

Market social experience of attendance to non-attendees

Fans aren’t monolithic – important to cater to all demographics


In the NFL, performance of the team matters most because there are the least

amount of games, whereas in the MLB a loss isn’t as disappointing because going to a game is “just a day at the ballpark”


Sponsorship Analytics: The New Yardstick for Brands & Properties Speakers: Kathy Carter, President of Marketing at Soccer United; Valerie Camillo, CRO

of the Washington Nationals; Elizabeth Lindsey, Managing Partner at Wasserman; Greg Va, Global Director of Sports Marketing at Gillette; Nick Kelly, Director of Experiential

Marketing at Anheuser-Busch; and Jason Belzer, President of Global Athlete Management Enterprises

Using data to make better decisions o Sales, ceiling for revenue – does the product enhance game experience?

o Clients need very different data to make decisions

Leagues do a lot of work in terms of demographics, but teams don’t

It’s important to find a story rooted in analysis to pitch to partners

Own the head and the heart, analytics provide the head

FIFA video game is an entry point into being a soccer fan

Passion based industry: fans care about the sport and the athlete

o Methodical way to find qualitative version of metrics o Support craving for authenticity

Sponsorship business has tripled in the last few years

Making things specific to the brand

Collaborative process to determine what should come out of the project

Sometimes sponsorships move past brand awareness

Sports allow a platform that includes TV, digital, and expeiential engagement, activations have to figure out how to use all three well

o Experiental allows the most creativity

Cultural shift towards analytics

What do you want from this partnership and what are brands willing to buy it for

Emotional triggers drive value of set up

Can’t cash in on one great Super Bowl win year because then brands will leave after a bad year

o People leaving early and arriving late causes lost revenue o Longitudinal outlook – data shows trends over the years and predicts

future


Serving the Sports Fan With Analytics

Speakers: Neil Greenberg, Sports Writer at the Washington Post; Sharon Katz, ESPN

Sports Analytics Writer; Nate Silver, Founder 538; Pablo Torre, Senior Writer at ESPN; and Alok Pttani, Associate Director of Sports Analytics at ESPN

Player tracking data o Speed tracking a linebacker as they make a tackle or receiver as they

run for a touchdown

Numbers might tell you about the player but analytics can predict and analyze how that player will fit into the team

Data requires a lot of context

People look at data selectively

Grey area in assigned probability

Athletes should see analytics as a tool to track and improve performance

Image charting win probability during an NFL game


The Future of the Fan Experience

Speakers: Jonathan Kraft, President of the Kraft Group; Michael Rubin, Executive

Chairman, Fanatics; Jared Smith, President of Ticketmaster North America; and Andrea Kremer, NFL Network Chief Coorespondant

We want to know exactly who is in the stadium o Tickets are an anonymous product

o Process hasn’t changed in 30-40 years o Security aspect of exactly who’s in the stadium becoming more important o Digital ticket on a phone becoming increasingly more prevalent

Who is interacting with all other mediums of the product – sports compete for attention, passion, dollars

Getting hype moments in sports out on social media/digital as quickly as possible to get fans excited about sports content

Paper tickets are not the enemy, but push towards mobile environment to get more information about customers

o Paper tickets are souvenirs for a lot of fans o Digital tickets are an investment in future generations

Patriots Gameday app for season ticket holders

o Interviews with players at the hotel the night before the game o Team alarm clock with Gronk yelling at you to wake up

o Season ticket holders are sent physical tickets that they can digitize with the app

o During the game the app allows for fans to call up replays, next season will include virtual reality

o Creates a destination beyond the event

o Patriots have 18,000 season ticket holders, but a fan base of 5 million No mass market emails, occasionally use Facebook targeted ads

o Social media is often used as an extension of a team’s PR, but it needs to be more focused on the exact medium and be a form of entertainment

Patriots are #1 in social media engagement in the NFL

Fans want: o Their team to win

o Special access to team experience o People want to feel like they’re a part of something

Collecting experiences rather than items

o Flexibility – 3 game ticket pack, share partners, time share model for season tickets

Eliminating secondary ticket brokers o Patriots app allows for season ticket holders to sell at face value

Sports is becoming global o Soccer clubs set the example

o All about media rights o International fan clubs help introduce new fans to the NFL o Football is a hard sport to learn

o Patriots opened an office in China and funded flag football leagues before the NFL asked them to shut down


People are more loyal to players than teams

o NFL sells more than 2,000 different jerseys because of transactions

In stadium fan experience o Wifi to power app

o There’s no evidence people would rather stay at home because of HDTV o App makes things more convienent

o Dunkin Donuts promotion: 10% of every purchase goes to your Patriots season ticket package if you are part of Dunkin’s loyalty program


#KingdomUnited – How the Kansas City Chiefs Utilized Social Media, Technology,

and Game Presentation to Convert Casual NFL Fans to Chiefs Fans in the UK and

Beyond

Speaker: Bill Chapin, SVP Business Operations, Kansas City Chiefs

Creating the hashtag #ChiefsKingdom + United Kingdom = #KingdomsUnite

Previous NFL teams who played in London weren’t engaging the UK fan

They did a good job of activating while they were in the UK, but failed to keep fans interested after they left

20% of traffic to NFL club sites is from outside of the United States

In the UK, the NFL is considered more inclusive—fans more likely to bring their

daughters to NFL games over EPL

NFL fans use mobile more than other leagues

Strategy

o Team Affinity: casual fans become Chiefs fans

o Grow International Audience: TV deals

o Unite the Kingdoms: empower fans to rally behind common concept

Social Media

o Show UK fans we’re alike in many ways

o Previous teams had used the image of a helmet in front of iconic locations

o Chiefs created clear cards with cutouts of QB, flag, and other images and gave them to season ticket holders at meet ups

o Social Media Campaign

Localized messaging: translation Arrowhead Abroad

Pub Party

o Included members of Chiefs front office serving beer to fans

o Creates a great story for people to tell about their experience

o Allows local and travelling fans to unite for a common concept

They wanted to convey what is happening in London is what you see in

Arrowhead

o Rituals of game presentation: hand motions, flags, 80ft fire when team comes out of the tunnel

o Walking with the Wounded – military partnership during game similar to what you see in the US

Results

o Goal of 1-2 million international web views 875,000 international web

views

o Goal of 5 million Facebook reach 7.2 million Facebook reach

o Gained 25,000 Facebook likes, 40,000 Twitter followers, and 12,000

Instagram followers in four days

Next season

o Pub party in away cities every game in 2016

o Create Chiefs Kingdom brand Ale and flag


Redefining Home Field Advantage: Strategies for Enhancing Fan Engagement

Speaker: Pete Giorgio, Principal at Deloitte Sports Consulting

[email protected]

People are happy to engage with their favorite team, but not so much with an

insurance company

50% of fans who played sports as kids become fanatics as adults

Fanatics spend 6 times more than causal fans

47% of fans engage more or less than their self described affinity level

The goal is to build a new relationship with fans o Once you know who your fans are, you have to create a personal

relationship o Demographics aren’t specific enough engage with fans based on their

attitudes and behaviors when thinking of audience segmentation

Think holistically about experience

Engage with fans year round

o Season ticket members spend 5 times more on non-ticket purchases

Recognize loyalty – sports invented loyalty

People want to be part of the team

One of the best examples of fan engagement is the Green Bay Packers shareholder program

mailto:[email protected]


The Evolution of Ownership

Speakers: Wyc Grousbeck, Managing Partner and CEO of the Boston Celtics; Stan

Kroenke, Owner of Kroenke Sports Enterprises; Sam Kennedy, President of the Boston Red Sox; Brian Lafemina, SVP of NFL Club Business Development; Jessica Gelman, VP

of Customer Marketing & Strategy at the Kraft Sports Group

Grousbeck got involved in sports ownership to bring a championship to Boston

rather than money

Kroenke wasn’t able to be an athlete himself, so he decided he wanted to own a

team—he just had to figure out how to afford it

The best owners in sports watch the business side as well as the player side

The amount of money in the industry has forced it to become more sophisticated, leading to even more investment

o “Wandering around” leads to success

Media deals Kroenke created regional network in Denver

Inglewood stadium o Risk of buying property before team moved was huge

o Lots of competition for which team moved o The move to LA is good for the league in the long run o LA is the biggest entertainment capital – not having an NFL team in the

entertainment capital in the country where the NFL is the most successful is failing to capitalize on opportunity

Building a stadium for the league rather than just the Rams o The LA stadium will be the future of NFL stadiums

Role of the NFL in LA o Providing owners with as much information as possible

o Advertising NFL, not a specific team

Fenway Park o Renovations rather than a new ballpark to allow more new and different

events o Ski jumping, outdoor hockey, concerts

Game Entertainment o The NFL used to not allow replays in the stadium

o Music was the only form of game entertainment o Entertainment has become a huge priority o Focusing on the shared real experience is more important than digital

Can’t forget the human element

When hiring: sales people who can analyze are the most ideal

o Get the best in the business and let them do their jobs

Being in the LA Coliseum will improve the Rams brand

NBA might play mid morning games to attract international audiences o Basketball is becoming a global sport

NFL Game Pass product provides OTT (over the top) content directly to fans

Seeing games in person is great but there are so few opportunities, there needs to

be a way to get media in the hands of fans


Proposed Celtics game at Fenway Park

Social Media is accelerating the fan experience through sharing


Coffee and Football: Driving Digital Impact Through Strategic Sports Partnership

Speakers: Paul Murray, Senior Manager of Digital & Innovation Marketing at Dunkin

Brand and Tim Chu, Data Scientist ad DigitasLBi

Panel focused on the Patriots and Dunkin Donuts partnership

o Dunkin Donuts has a rewards program through an app that allows members to redeem free coffees after Patriots wins, exclusive content,

10% of Dunkin purchases goes towards Patriots season tickets

Loyalty happy and energetic customer

Issue: 59% of Dunkin Donuts guests didn’t know a loyalty program existed or

assumed they were already part of the program

Dunkin engages with brands like JetBlue, Spotify, Uber

Sports partnerships bring together the loyalty for sports and a brand

Tested in Philadelphia – free coffee after Eagles win o Coffee for a Quarter-back promotion

Patriots 365 Spending

o Rewards on season tickets

Goals/Strategies

o Tech integration – leveraging technology to provide personalized and richer digital experiences

Sports partnerships are evolving with digital, leading to long term measurable success

o Data sharing – advances in data science enable deeper data and analytics integration between partners

Leveraging more event based signals and analytics to drive brand

marketing o Campaign design – designing better campaigns through testing and

experiences Finding the right balance of tech, analytics, and marketing

synergies


Above: Member enrollment measured by Patriots record Below: Social mentions of Dunkin partnership based on Patriots wins


1st and Goal: Football Analytics

Speakers: Thomas Dimitroff, General Manager of the Atlanta Falcons; Brian Burke,

Senior Analytics Specialist at ESPN; Sandy Weil, Director of Sports Analytics at Kronke Sports & Entertainment; John Urschel, Baltimore Ravens Offensive Lineman; Bill

Barnwell, ESPN Staff Writer; Mike Reiss, ESPN Boston Reporter

Dimitrioff: Analytics confirm and justify decisions and act as a trusted assistant

o Analytics provide evidence for a point that can explain what happened in a game

Analytics is about asking the right questions and interrogating the data to gain insight and make a decision

The decision is the most important part about how you use analytics

Provides a quantitative view for the sport and helps find what’s at the core

It’s important to note that all numbers need context

NFL hopes to be more open minded about what they measure

o Basketball models are more predictive than football because since basketball has more games there’s a larger sample size

Analytics in coaching: Urschel o Coaches discuss what was done well and how the game plan was executed

o If the defense gave them trouble they discuss why they didn’t recognize the scheme and what they should have done better


The Future of Sports Media

Speakers: John Stankey, CEO AT&T Entertainment Group; Bill Koenig, President of

Global Media Distribution with the NBA; Chad Millman, VP Domestic Digital Content at ESPN

Media experiences have to be more immersive because of the cultural shift towards shorter attention spans

Data digital community new ways to engage o Know your customer – know products they want and customize your

product to fit their needs

o Data as a content product

Fantasy Sports are a classy term for gambling

o Initially there was a push to protect player statistics o Found out that gambling/fantasy is important to brining in the casual and

curious fan o Allows casual fan tools that they can use to “snack” on content and later

pay for the “main course”

Everyone is searching for the optimization equation o People only engage with things they’re passionate about

o Give suggestions, give people exactly what they want rather than a store full of choices

When the NBA tweets a link to a live stream of a game, half of the purchases ($6.99 per game) come after the game has started

Basketball has intuitively more international appeal because it is easier to understand


Business of Sports

Speakers: Tad Brown, CEO of the Houston Rockets; Jim Pallotta, Chairman and

Managing Director of the Raptor Group; Steve Pagliuca, Co-Owner and Managing Partner of the Boston Celtics; Matt Sebal, Founder, Co-owner, and president of KORE

Software; Patrick Rische, Director of the Sports Business Program at Washington University in St. Louis

The Celtics ownership group had tech venture capital backgrounds

The NBA has great data sharing program that allows the league to build the pie to bring in more resources to the whole league

Soccer – information isn’t shared, everyone is on their own o Whatever you sell is yours – merchandise, sponsors, tickets, etc

o Share with TV contracts - $3 million to $35 million o There is competition for media rights

o Buying and selling players in transfer market

Sponsorship rate of return

o Closed loop system o Soft reasons for sponsorship, but want teams to prove the return on

investment

Jersey Sponsorships in the NBA o Concerns: salary cap, revenue sharing however jersey sponsorship is

going to happen o There is expected to be early angst from fans because logos on jerseys

subvert tradition o The $13-15 million a year from jersey sponsorships for a team could

finance stadium expenses and upgrades

LA Live type venue in Rome for Soccer o Will put the team in the top 5-6 revenue generating teams in the world

o Privately financed including the infrastructure o Stadiums don’t generate enough revenue to make up for pubic subsidy o There isn’t a good multi-purpose facility in Europe other than O2

Rams Stadium Advice o Go line by line with construction company

o Work on bringing existing fan base back Offer great experience, nostalgia

o Stay true to the market LA is premium value oriented

In a PR crisis, get the facts and get them out there quickly and in a professional

way


The Future of the Front Office

Speakers: Nick Caserio, Director of Player Personnel of the Patriots; Jeff Luhnow,

General Manager of the Houston Astros; Bob Myers, General Manager of the Golden State Warriors; Daryl Morey, General Manager of the Houston Rockets; and Jackie

MacMullan, Senior Writer at ESPN

Know analytics when presenting clients as free agents

Patriots and Spurs are the examples for sustained success

Wins come when there are few turnovers

o When there are no turnovers 90% chance of winning

Analytics are like a bikini, they show you a lot but not everything

Be careful about how you communicate analytics to players and coaches

Rest and recovery will be a huge component of training

o Some teams using planes with sleep pods o Hiring sleep specialists to work with teams o There has been a surge of health and wellness technology and personnel

Star crazy teams can have a lack of depth

Baseball spends the most time on the development side of the sport

MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

Data & Analytics

Transcript of MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference