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Missouri River Mainstem Reservoir System F lood of 2011 … Looking Forward
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Transcript of Missouri River Mainstem Reservoir System F lood of 2011 … Looking Forward
US Army Corps of Engineers
BUILDING STRONG®
Kevin Grode, P.E.
Reservoir Regulation Team Lead
Missouri Basin Water Management Division, Omaha, NE
January 24, 2012
Missouri River Mainstem Reservoir System Flood of 2011 … Looking Forward
BUILDING STRONG®
The Flood of 2011
Missouri River Mainstem Reservoir System
Previous Historic max - 1975
Missouri River Mainstem System
Storage Zones and Allocations19 January 2012
Exclusive Flood Control 6%
Carryover Multiple Use 53%
Permanent Pool 25%
0
17.9
56.8
73.1
68.4
72.1
Storage
In MAF
33.9
Annual Flood Control & Multiple Use 16%
Current = 56.5 MAF
Historic min - 2007
2011 Peak 72.8
16.3 MAF
Missouri River Runoff above Sioux City 2011 Actual versus Normal
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Normal 2011 Actual
Million Acre-Feet
March-July runoff of 48.7 MAF exceeded the flood control
storage design by more than 20%
(40.0 MAF, March-July 1881)
How much is 61.2 MAF?Flow vs. Volume
1 cubic foot per second (cfs) for 1 day = 1.9835 acre-feet
[(60 * 60 * 24) / 43,560 = 1.9835]
61,189,000 acre-feet* over 1 year (365 days) equals an average daily flow of
84,500 cfs
* Missouri River at Sioux City, IA (includes James and Big Sioux River basins)
** Missouri River at Gavins Point Dam
51,482,000 acre-feet** over 1 year (365 days) equals an average daily release of
71,100 cfs
BUILDING STRONG®
Significant System Operations in 2011
Two Projects in Surcharge (Fort Peck and Garrison)
Historic Releases Made at All Mainstem Projects
First Time Spillways Used at Garrison and Big Bend
Many Levees Overtopped/Breached Downstream
Review of 2011 Self-Assessment, AAR
Independent External Review of WM
Flexible … Aggressive … Communication
61.2 MAF ~ 1 in 500 year event
Technical Analysis on Flood Control Storage
Understanding Roles / Responsibilities
Collaboration – USACE and NWS
Independent External Review of WM• Panel members from NRCS, USGS, NWS and Colorado State University
• “The panel found no evidence that Corps personnel were attempting to do anything other than to operate the system using the best
available methods and to minimize the overall negative consequences. The flood in 2011 was a record-breaking event with
unprecedented levels of runoff that could not be predicted in advance, and the Corps responded well to a difficult test of historic
dimensions.” (page 84, Summary and Conclusions)
• Panel Recommendations
1. Support a program of infrastructure enhancement.
2. Update hydrologic studies to include 2011.
3. Review of System storage allocations.
4. Improved cooperation/collaboration with NWS, USGS and NRCS.
5. Studies to enhance data collection and forecasting (sp: plains snow).
6. Implement modern interactive, graphics decision support system.
BUILDING STRONG®
Flexible … Aggressive … Communication“Therefore, it is crucial that water releases prior to March 1, 2012 be well above what would otherwise be the case without the reality of damaged levees.
The Corps should do all that it can to maximize the reservoir reserves by March 1 without significantly increasing the chances of flooding or having the
river run at a level that seriously impedes the repair of levees and other flood structures.”
Source: AOP Comment letter from 10 Senators (Grassley and Harkin, IA; McCaskill and Blunt, MO; Nelson and Johanns, NE; Conrad and Hoeven, ND and Johnson and Thune, SD)
Flexible …
• If conditions allow, release additional beyond the 16.3 MAF
• December – extended the drawdown from 40 kcfs to 20 kcfs
• Winter Gavins Release – 22 kcfs (normal max is 20 kcfs)
• Studies indicate about 16.8 MAF of FC storage on March 1
BUILDING STRONG®
Flexible … Aggressive … Communication
If basin conditions indicate runoff in 2012 will be similar to 2011, the Corps will be more aggressive in evacuating
water from the reservoirs to create additional storage for runoff.
“The panel’s first impression about communications was to note that is seems impossible to satisfy everyone’s
expectations to be notified promptly and accurately about every decision and eventuality. Officials along the river in
various roles should take part of the responsibility for communications, as they do in other public emergencies.” (page 81,
Communications)
BUILDING STRONG®
Effective Communication
Kevin’s definition:
As it pertains to USACE MRBWM real-time decision-making, effective communication requires a proper balance of
communicating decisions and associated impacts … fully realizing that in real-time, decisions change as conditions
(e.g. climate/weather, project/river constraints) change … in a manner that the broadest extent of potentially affected
persons are aware of these decisions and impacts and have the opportunity to provide timely and relevant feedback.(source: Grode, Kevin)
Preparing for 2012 Runoff Season
La Niña !!
Basin (Soil) Conditions
Plains Snowpack
Mountain Snowpack
Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks
How Will La Nina Affect Us in 2012?During La Nina episodes, the Pacific Northwest and portions of the Northern Rockies in the Missouri River Basin are
expected to receive greater than normal precipitation as mountain snowfall, and generally colder than normal
temperatures in the Northern Plains, usually during the January‐February‐March period. Increased plains snowfall
and accumulations are generally expected due to the colder than normal temperatures. La Nina episodes create storm
track conditions that move through the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains (Missouri River basin). Through
mid-January, the storm track in the Missouri River basin has been nearly opposite of a characteristic La Nina, with
warmer than normal temperatures in the upper Missouri River basin, and below normal precipitation and snow
accumulation. However, recently we’ve begun a more typical La Nina pattern.
Soil Moisture
Last Year
This Year
Plains Snowpack18 Jan 2012
Cooperative Plains Snow
Survey
Mountain Snowpack18 Jan 2012
Temperature / Precipitation 3-month Outlooks
February – March - April
Temperature Precipitation
Temperature / Precipitation 3-month Outlooks
Temperature Precipitation
May – June - July
2012 and Beyond … Jan 1 Runoff Forecast – 26.5 MAF (107%)
Dam / Levee Repairs
Continuous Monitoring of Basin Conditions
Adjust Regulation Plans as Conditions Change
No Guarantees in Real-Time Regulation
Flexible … Aggressive … Communication