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Miroslav Jankovic(Statistical Office of Serbia and Montenegro)
Dragi StojiljkovicTatjana Stanojevic-Miladinovic
(Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia)
Joint UNECE/ILO Meeting on Consumer Price IndicesGeneva, 10-12 May 2006
PRICE COLLECTIONIN UNSTABLE MARKET CONDITIONS
National level: Serbia and Montenegro (Statistical Office of Serbia and Montenegro)
Republican level:Serbia (Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia)
Montenegro (Statistical Office of the Republic of Montenegro – MONSTAT)
Lower levels: Central Serbia, Vojvodina, Belgrade
INTRODUCTION
Retail price indices in Serbia and Montenegro:
1954 (data produced and published) 1962 (methodology published) Methods are the same for all levels In accordance with international standards
INTRODUCTION
The case of retail price indices in the Republic of Serbia:
Chronology of market conditions (1990-2005)
Price collection Calculation Further development
INTRODUCTION
In the period 1990 – 2005 market conditions in Serbia were frequently changed
The price statisticians had to react in the quickest possible way
UNSTABLE MARKET CONDITIONS
April 1991 to January 1994 – Hyperinflation: Printing paper currency (in December
1993 the highest nominal value of banknote was 500.000.000.000 Dinars)
Dinar devaluations (exchange rate was 1.028.727.207.263 Dinars for 1 DEM as of December 31, 1993)
Dinar denominations (January 1, 1994 1.000.000.000 Dinars = 1 Dinar)
UNSTABLE MARKET CONDITIONS
Hyperinflation – official statistical results: In January 1994 prices changed at the
rate of 60% daily Monthly retail price index in January 1994
(previous month = 100) was 302.760.900 Retail price index in December 1993
(December 1992 = 100) was 346.977.256.912.227
UNSTABLE MARKET CONDITIONS
End of Hyperinflation: Hyperinflation caused complete market
breakdown At January 24, 1994 New dinar was
introduced 13.000.000 Dinars = 1 New dinar 1 New dinar for 1 DEM
UNSTABLE MARKET CONDITIONS
1995 to 2000: Breakdown of the huge trade systems Large number of small shops (with limited
and changeable goods assortment) appeared
Significant share of turnover was relocated into underground and illegal economy
Bigger sample needed to ensure reliable price indices
UNSTABLE MARKET CONDITIONS
2001 to 2005: Foreign investments and privatization The chains of big supermarkets were
established in main towns Small shops almost completely diminished Problem of missing prices and quality
harmonization
UNSTABLE MARKET CONDITIONS
National retail price indices: Retail price index - used as national
inflation measure and deflator of output and assets value
Consumer price index (Cost of living index) - used for salaries (wages), pensions and other social benefits revaluation
BASIC ELEMENTS
Coverage: Prices collected in 15 towns in Serbia
List of products: about 500 products (definitions detailed enough and general enough)
Classifications: national classifications of goods and services by origin and purpose (different from COICOP)
BASIC ELEMENTS
Weights: Structure of retail turnover of goods and
services (for retail price index) Structure of household consumption
(for consumer price index)
BASIC ELEMENTS
Main principles: Products being bought most often and
price dynamics is representative for the whole group of products
Shops that reflect consumers’ habits Price collectors are full-time employees
in regional offices
PRICE COLLECTION
Selection of shops – recording places (with the highest turnover, where prices represent the average of prices in town)
Selection of products (most sold, present for a longer period of time)
Substitution of shops and products (closing of a shop, deficit of a product)
PRICE COLLECTION
Time/period of prices recording: Manufactured non-food goods (from 3rd
to 10th each month) Manufactured food goods (from 11th to
12th) Services (from 16th to 18th) Agricultural goods (in the first and the
third week of each month)
PRICE COLLECTION
Documentation of prices recording Prices recording procedures (auxiliary
papers, data base, sending to Price department)
Validation and control of recorded prices
PRICE COLLECTION
Average prices: Average monthly prices (for a town,
territory, the Republic of Serbia) Average annual prices (simple
arithmetic mean of average monthly prices except for seasonal agricultural goods)
DATA PROCESSING
Indices calculation: Individual indices (for products) Aggregated indices (for groups and
total) Annual indices
DATA PROCESSING
Following indices are published: Current month in relation to: average of
previous year, previous month, same month of the previous year and December of the previous year
Period from the beginning of the year in relation to: average of previous year and same period of the previous year
DISSEMINATION
Treatment of seasonal products Adjusting of price changes to quality
changes:
- minor change of a product
- significant change
- when price change is not
harmonized with quality change
OTHER METHODOLOGICAL ISSUES
Analysis and updating of the product list Introducing COICOP classification Computing seasonal products prices Analysis of various formula effects Excluding the influence of quality
change on price change Introducing hand held computers in
data collecting
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
Quality of retail price indices is the priority task of official statistics
Data collection improved by creating new instruction for price recording and intensifying the training of price collectors
General intention to produce and publish new CPI in accordance with EU standards and COICOP classification starting from January 2007
CONCLUSION
Miroslav Jankovic(Statistical Office of Serbia and Montenegro)
Dragi StojiljkovicTatjana Stanojevic-Miladinovic
(Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia)
Joint UNECE/ILO Meeting on Consumer Price IndicesGeneva, 10-12 May 2006
PRICE COLLECTIONIN UNSTABLE MARKET CONDITIONS