Minnesota Air Quality and Attainment Status

Frank Kohlasch • Kari Palmer

Statewide Travel Demand Coordinating Committee MeetingOctober 14, 2010

National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)

State Implementation Plans (SIPs) Pollutants of concern for transportation

Carbon dioxide (CO) Nitrogen oxides (NOX) Ozone Fine particles (PM2.5)

Impacts

Summary

Primary standards are set to protect human health

Secondary standards are set to protect public welfare

Set for six “criteria” pollutants CO, Lead NOX

NAAQS Basics

SO2

Ozone Particles (PM10

and PM2.5)

EPA must periodically review each NAAQS NAAQS must protect human health with an

adequate margin of safety Costs cannot be considered in setting the level

Between 2008 and 2012, EPA will review ALL Reviews often result in lower standards and

shorter averaging times Some level of regulatory uncertainty during

transition

NAAQS Revisions

Ongoing NAAQS reviews:

Milestone

Pollutant

LeadNO2

PrimarySO2

PrimaryOzone CO PM

NO2/SO2

Secondary

Timeline

Oct 15,

2008

Jan 22, 2010

Jun 2, 2010

Oct 31, 2010

May 13, 2011

July 2011

Mar 20, 2012

NOTE: Underlined dates indicate court-ordered or settlement agreement deadlines.

Demonstrates how a state will attain the NAAQS

Contains state rules/statutes, programs, and site-specific requirements

State Implementation Plan (SIP)

SIPs apply to nonattainment and attainment areas

Nonattainment SIPs have specific requirements Nonattainment area must include the air

that does not meet the standard and all sources that contribute to nonattainment

Transportation conformity takes effect one year later

An attainment SIP must be developed

SIP Basics

State

Implementation

Plan

(SIP)

Legal Authority Air Quality Monitoring

Modeling data Emission Limiting Rules and Regs

Enforcement New Source Review

Voluntary and Non-traditional

Measures

Control Strategy DemonstrationResources

PermittingPermittingMobile Measures and Fuels

SIP steps

Taken from presentation by Tom Helms, EPA, on nonattainment/SIP

Implementing a New NAAQS

EPA sets a new

standard

Immediate impact on

facility review

Additional monitoring

often required

States make a designation

recommendation

EPA makes a final

designation

Transportation conformity

applies

1 yr

States submit SIP

demonstrating attainment

Attainment must be shown

(5 years after designation)

1.5 yrs

1 yr

1 yr

CO NAAQS is being reviewed Available background documents to support

the review The evidence provides “support for a

standard at least as protective as the current standard”

Schedule is court ordered Notice of proposed rule to be signed

October 28, 2010 Notice of final rule to be signed May 13,

2011

CO NAAQS

1998 – 2009 One Hour Design Value Trends

1998 – 2009 Eight Hour Design Value Trends

Twin Cities CO Trends

19992001

20032005

20072009

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2n

d h

igh

est

8-h

r m

ax C

O

(pp

m)

19992001

20032005

20072009

0

3

6

9

12

15

FHR 420 FHR 423 FRIDLEY

ST PAUL MPLS ST CLOUD

DULUTH

2n

d h

igh

est

1-h

r m

ax C

O (

pp

m)

Potential standard range of 5-15 ppm

Potential standard range of 3-9 ppm

New standard of 100 ppb, one hour average

Annual 53 ppb standard remains effective EPA focused on near roadway

concentrations New roadway monitors being required (by

2013) Areas without monitors will be designated as

unclassifiable Nonattainment designations not likely

until 2016 or 2017

NOx NAAQS

NO2 annual average trends

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20090

10

20

30

40

50

60

FHR 420FHR 423BLAINE

Mean

An

nu

al N

O2

(p

pb

)

NO2 Standard

Reductions may be needed even if Minnesota attains the NAAQS

Important component of secondary formation

VOCs + NOx + sunlight = ozone

Ammonia + NOx = ammonium nitrate

(~⅓ of fine particle mass)

NOx and Secondary Formation

The final NAAQS scheduled for October 2010 Current standard: 75 ppb (set 2008) Proposed levels: 60–70 ppb

Key Issues Shorter timeframe for designations (June

2012) What data will be used for designations?

Ozone NAAQS

8-Hour Ozone DVs, 2007-2009

Anoka

Airp

ort

East

Bet

hel

Shak

opee

St. M

icha

el

Stan

ton

Still

wat

er

Brain

erd

Cloqu

et

Detro

it La

kes

Dulut

h

Ely/

Fern

berg

Mar

shal

l

Mill

e La

cs

Roche

ster

St. C

loud

Voyg

Nat P

k40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

6462

6365 65

67

62

5758

55

6062

6061

5961

Estimated 8-Hour Ozone DVs, 2008-2010 Data through August 23, 2010

Anoka

Airp

ort

East

Bet

hel

Shak

opee

St. M

icha

el

Stan

ton

Still

wat

er

Brain

erd

Cloqu

et

Detro

it La

kes

Dulut

h

Ely/

Fern

berg

Mar

shal

l

Mill

e La

cs

Roche

ster

St. C

loud

Voyg

Nat P

k40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

6260

5960 60

64

60

55

58

52

58

62

57

60

55

60

Ozone NAAQS Design Values (DVs)

Range of Proposed Standard

Range of Proposed Standard

Sources of Ozone (2005 data)

Nitrogen oxides Volatile organic compounds

Based on prior EPA implementation guidance Ozone nonattainment has different levels

Marginal/moderate/serious/severe An area’s classification will affect SIP requirements

SIP Required Elements Reasonably available control measures/technology

(RACM/RACT) Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance (I/M) Reasonable further progress (RFP)

EPA will propose implementation guidance when they finalize the standard

Ozone Nonattainment

Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) PM2.5 is both primary and secondary

Primary Particles(Directly Emitted)

Secondary Particles(From Precursor Gases)

Elemental Carbon

OtherCrustal Ammonium

Nitrate

NOx

AmmoniumSulfate

SO2

SecondaryOrganics

VOC

Ammonia

Crustal

June 2000 / tgp

Condensed Organics

Estimated Daily PM2.5 DVs 2008-2010*

Data through March 2010

Apple

Val

ley

Mpl

s - P

hilli

ps

St Lou

is P

ark

St P

aul -

RHC

St P

aul -

Har

ding

Shak

opee

Dulut

h - W

DSE

Dulut

h - L

inco

ln P

ark

Roche

ster

St C

loud

Virgin

ia0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

31 31

28.6

35.9 36.5

29.1

19.721.8

30.5

26.5

15.3

Annual PM2.5 NAAQS DVs, 2007-2009

Apple

Val

ley

Mpl

s - P

hilli

ps

St Lou

is P

ark

St P

aul -

RHC

St P

aul -

Har

ding

Shak

opee

Dulut

h - W

DSE

Dulut

h - L

inco

ln P

ark

Roche

ster

St C

loud

Virgin

ia0

2

4

6

8

10

12

9.69.9 9.9

10.910.3

9.5

6.4

7.5

10

8.7

5.8

PM2.5 NAAQS Design Values (DVs)

Current Standard

Range of Proposed Standard

Will be proposed and finalized in 2011

EPA will likely wait for this new standard to designate us as nonattainment State designation recommendation likely

December 2012 Based on 2009 – 2011 data?

Designation likely in December 2013 Based on 2010 – 2012 data?

New PM2.5 Standard

Trend in Daily PM2.5 Design Values

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 200910

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Metro Sites

Apple ValleyRichfieldMpls - PhillipsMpls - Humboldt AveSt. Louis ParkSt. Paul - RRRSt. Paul - RHCSt. Paul - HardingShakopeeC

on

cen

trati

on

(µ

g/m

3)

Note: actual design value is 3-yr average

Trend in Annual PM2.5 Design Values

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20096

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14Metro Sites

Apple ValleyRichfieldMpls - PhillipsMpls - Humboldt AveSt. Louis ParkSt. Paul - RRRSt. Paul - RHCSt. Paul - HardingShakopeeC

on

ce

ntr

ati

on

(µ

g/m

3)

Note: actual design value is 3-yr average

Sources of PM2.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Av

era

ge

So

urc

e C

on

trib

uti

on

to

P

M2

.5 (

ug

/m3

)

Northea

st

Mill

e Lac

s

Twin C

ities

Roches

ter

Rural S

E

Rural S

W

Initial Estimate - Sources of Ambient PM2.5(adapted from MN PM2.5 Source Apportionment Study by Desert Research Institute )

Other

Biomass Burning

Calcium Material

Soil/Dust

Mobile (gasoline & diesel)

Secondary Ammonium Nitrate

Secondary Ammonium Sulfate

Secondary Ammonium Sulfate -SO2 from coal; ammonia from livestock & fertilizer

Secondary Ammonium Nitrate -NOx from coal & mobile sources; ammonia from livestock & fertilizer

Biomass burning - More study needed

Mobile - May include small amounts of other oil combustion & secondary organic aerosol

Chen, L.-W. A.; Watson, J. G.; Chow, J. C.; DuBois, D. W.; Herschberger, L. Chemical mass balance source apportionment for combined PM2.5 measurements from U.S. non-urban and urban long-term networks. Atmos. Environ. 2010,  in press.

MPCA team formed to work on ozone and PM2.5 issues Modeling, monitoring, policy

Changes in standards likely mean changes to business as usual More things to look at when permitting a new or

expanding source More pollutants subject to transportation conformity More likely that existing source emissions will be

examined and mitigated May move into the world of Lowest Achievable

Emission Rate (LAER) and offsets

Impacts

Thanks to MPCA staffCatherine Neuschler

Cassie McMahonLisa Herschberger

Frank KohlaschFrank.Kohlasch@state.m

n.us651-757-2500

Kari PalmerKari.Palmer@state.mn.u

s651-757-2635