MINING, AGRICULTURE, TOURISM, TRANSPORT, CONSTRUCTION ... · FIFO to construction down : to...
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Ref: J2776 | 22 July 2014 PRESENTATION TO WS (Bill) Cummings MINING, AGRICULTURE, TOURISM, TRANSPORT, CONSTRUCTION, MANUFACTURING, DEFENCE, EDUCATION, ADMINISTRATION, SERVICES The Cairns Economy Recent Trends and Prospects
Transcript of MINING, AGRICULTURE, TOURISM, TRANSPORT, CONSTRUCTION ... · FIFO to construction down : to...
Ref: J2776 | 22 July 2014
PRESENTATION TO
WS (Bill) Cummings
MINING, AGRICULTURE, TOURISM, TRANSPORT, CONSTRUCTION,
MANUFACTURING, DEFENCE, EDUCATION, ADMINISTRATION, SERVICES
The Cairns Economy Recent Trends and Prospects
2
PROSPECTS FOR CAIRNS REGION’S ECONOMY LOOKING BETTER THAN HAVE BEEN SINCE THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS HIT FIVE YEARS AGO IN 2008.
LAST YEAR’S ADDRESS
From address 23rd of July 2013
3
IMPACTS ON THE REGIONAL ECONOMY
INVESTMENT / CONSTRUCTION
RISING MODESTLY
I HOUSEHOLD
EXPENDITURE RATE
RECOVERING
C OUTSIDE
EARNINGS OVERALL UP
MODESTLY
Ex GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE
DOWN
G
4
% GROWTH IN ROOM NIGHTS OCCUPIED HOTELS, MOTELS & SERVICED APARTMENTS 2004 – 2013 (1st HALF)
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Cat No. 8635.3.55.001
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Cairns City Total TNQ
5
GROWTH IN HOTEL, MOTEL ROOM NIGHTS DEC 2011 to APR 2014
-2.1
4.8
0.9
16.7
12.8
8
4.9
6.8 5.6
4.8 6.4
16.1
9
-3.5
12.1
7.8
-3
0
5.1 3.9
5.8 5.2 5
0.9
8.1
15.7
5.8 4.6
9.5
-10
0
10
20
Dec-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Fe
b-1
2
Ma
r-1
2
Ap
r-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
n-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Au
g-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Oct-
12
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Feb
-13
Ma
r-1
3
Ap
r-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
n-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Au
g-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Oct-
13
Nov-1
3
Dec-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Feb
-14
Ma
r-1
4
Ap
r-1
4
%
Source: Compass Research, TTNQ Tourism Monitor.
6
GROSS VALUE OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Agricultural Financial Statistics 7503.0.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
19
82
/83
19
83
/84
19
84
/85
19
85
/86
19
86
/87
19
87
/88
1988/8
9
19
89
/90
19
90
/91
19
91
/92
19
92
/93
19
93
/94
19
94
/95
19
95
/96
19
96
/97
19
97
/98
19
98
/99
19
99
/00
20
00
/01
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/04
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
2010/1
1
20
11
/12
$M
NE
W S
ER
IES
Note: Up to 2009/10 Far North Queensland Statistical Division : From 2010/11 includes part Carpentaria Shire
7
VALUE OF MINING PRODUCTION FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND
Source: Cummings Economics from Queensland Mines & Energy data.
FIFO to construction down : to operations & maintenance steady.
PNG loss of Interoil office : sales in education & training,
construction services and steel fabrication.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200 1
98
2/8
3
19
83
/84
19
84
/85
19
85
/86
1986/8
7
19
87
/88
19
88
/89
19
89
/90
19
90
/91
19
91
/92
19
92
/93
19
93
/94
19
94
/95
19
95
/96
19
96
/97
19
97
/98
19
98
/99
1999/0
0
20
00
/01
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/04
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
20
10
/11
20
11
/12
2012/1
3
8
HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURE
RATE RECOVERING
C
9
IMPACTS ON THE REGIONAL ECONOMY
INVESTMENT / CONSTRUCTION
RISING MODESTLY
I HOUSEHOLD
EXPENDITURE RATE
RECOVERING
C OUTSIDE
EARNINGS OVERALL UP
MODESTLY
Ex GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE
DOWN
G
10
VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVALS FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND STATISTICAL DIVISION $M
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1980/81
1981/82
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
(1) Note – based on 11 months to end May 2014. (1)
11
DWELLING APPROVALS FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND STATISTICAL DIVISION
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
(1) Note - based on 11 months to end May 2014.
(1)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
19
82
/83
19
83
/84
19
84
/85
19
85
/86
19
86
/87
19
87
/88
19
88
/89
19
89
/90
19
90
/91
19
91
/92
19
92
/93
19
93
/94
19
94
/95
19
95
/96
19
96
/97
19
97
/98
19
98
/99
19
99
/00
20
00
/01
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/04
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
20
10
/11
20
11
/12
20
12
/13
20
13
/14
12
TOTAL VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVALS FAR NORTH QUEENSLAND STATISTICAL DIVISION
PRIVATE VS GOVERNMENT
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14
Private Government (1)
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data.
(1) Note - based on 11 months to end May 2014.
13
RESIDENTIAL POPULATION GROWTH : CAIRNS
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06 Y
ea
r
19
76
/77
19
77
/78
19
78
/79
19
79
/80
19
80
/81
19
81
/82
19
82
/83
19
83
/84
19
84
/85
19
85
/86
19
86
/87
19
87
/88
19
88
/89
19
89
/90
19
90
/91
19
91
/92
19
92
/93
19
93
/94
19
94
/95
19
95
/96
19
96
/97
19
97
/98
19
98
/99
19
99
/00
20
00
/01
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/04
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
20
10
/11
20
11
/12
20
12
/13
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS data. Cat No. 3218.0 and previous.
(1) Cairns Statistical Subdivision from 2011. Cairns North & Cairns South SA3 from 2011.
14
Source: Cummings Economics from ABS Cat No. 3218.0.
ROCKHAMPTON SA3 20%
MACKAY SA3 30%
TOWNSVILLE SA3 28%
CAIRNS SA3s 32%
DARWIN SA4 26%
RESIDENTIAL POPULATION % GROWTH 10 YEARS 2002/03 TO 2012/13
Growth Far North Queensland Region 46,000 (21%)
15
• DWELLING VACANCIES LOW : RENTS UP
• HOTEL MOTEL OCCUPANCY RATES BACK UP
LOOKING FORWARD RISING INVESTMENT / CONSTRUCTION
STARTING POINT:
16
CAIRNS CITY
CAIRNS NORTH
RESIDENTIAL 6 residential towers, 1 corporate, 1100 apartments
over time
2 x 15 storey towers / residential development
15 storey commercial / residential development
TOURISM 400 hotel rooms
300 bed backpacker hostel
The Aquarium Project
NORTH SIDE Bluewater expansion
A retirement village
200 - 500 house lots
Residential units
SOUTHSIDE Towards 2000 house lots
SOME PROPOSED DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PIPELINE INCLUDE
17
GROWTH IN CHINESE INCOME LEVELS
YEARS GDP US $ TRILLION GDP PER CAPITA (INT $ PPP)
2002 1.45 2,891
2003 1.64 3,227
2004 1.93 3,625
2005 2.26 4,115
2006 2.71 4,759
2007 3.50 5,562
2008 4.52 6,201
2009 4.99 6,798
2010 5.93 7,571
2011 7.33 8,411
2012 8.23 9,185
Source: United Nations.
18
GROWTH IN CHINESE OUTBOUND VISITOR NUMBERS
(1) Note: Includes travel to Hong Kong, Macau & Taiwan.
Source: Travel China Guide.
No. M ANNUAL GROWTH
2006 35M
2007 41M 18.6%
2008 46M 11.9%
2009 48M 4.0% (GFC)
2010 57M 20.4%
2011 70M 22.4%
TOTAL INCREASE 36 m 15.3% AV % PA
19
GROWTH IN CHINESE VISITORS
Source: Tourism Research Australia – International Visitor Survey.
CAIRNS AUSTRALIA
2000 6,682 106,807
2001 14,936 145,134
2002 10,789 168,032
2003 11,970 161,116
2004 26,360 227,394
2005 33,325 268,442
2006 34,184 289,779
2007 55,276 329,813
2008 47,022 347,319
2009 38,503 343,821
2010 62,734 408,327
2011 73,757 490,427
2012 102,075 573,071
AV. ANNUAL GROWTH 26% PA 15% PA
20
ACTUAL
1984 - 1996
PROJECTED AQUIS
2015 - 2027
NO. OF ROOMS AT BEGINNING 2717 10800
AT END 12 YEARS 9010 6500
INCREASE 6293 6500
% INCREASE +232% +60%
INCREASE : 4 YEARS 1986 - 1990 AQUIS STAGE 1
NO. 4259 3500
GROWTH +147% +32%
COMPARISON PROJECTED AQUIS PROJECT WITH PERIOD 1984 TO 1996
INCREASE IN HOTEL MOTEL ROOMS FNQ
21
YEARS IN WHICH RATIO OF DWELLING APPROVALS TO POPULATION WAS ABOVE INDICATED DEMAND FOR DWELLING CONSTRUCTION,
TO CURRENT POPULATION STIMULATED BY AQUIS
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1982/83
1983/84
1984/85
1985/86
1986/87
1987/88
1988/89
1989/90
1990/91
1991/92
1992/93
1993/94
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
AQUIS
PO
PU
LA
TIO
N
CIT
Y 7
0,0
00
R
EG
ION
15
4,0
00
CIT
Y 1
60
,00
0
RE
GIO
N 2
80
,00
0
22
ACTUAL
1984-1996
AQUIS PROJECTED
2015 - 2027
POPULATION AT START 70,000 160,000
INCREASE 40,000 80 - 90,000
POPULATION AT END 110,000 240 - 250,000
% INCREASE +57% +50-56%
POPULATION INCREASES : CAIRNS CITY
23
BACK TO MID TO LATE 1980s
• SOME TRANSITORY STRESSES AND STRAINS
• BUT BETTER KNOWN IN ADVANCE TO PLAN FOR AND RESPOND TO
24
COMMONWEALTH WHITE PAPER PROCESS
• LIFE EXPECTANCIES
• URBAN POPULATION GROWTH
• HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT AND PROSPECTS
25
• AGRICULTURAL POTENTIAL
• REGIONAL ROADS
• SEAPORT UPGRADING & CONTAINER SERVICES
• AIR FREIGHT OPPORTUNITIES
• HEALTH, UNIVERSITY, COMMUNITY SERVICES AND FACILITIES
www.cummings.net.au
MINING, AGRICULTURE, TOURISM, TRANSPORT, CONSTRUCTION,
MANUFACTURING, DEFENCE, EDUCATION, ADMINISTRATION, SERVICES
The Cairns Economy Recent Trends and Prospects
