IAEAInternational Atomic Energy Agency

MODARIA II Working Group 1 (Assessment and Decision Making) 

Summary of Work & Recommendations

Ming Zhu, Ph.D., PE, PMPU.S. Department of Energy

4th MODARIA II Technical MeetingVienna, Austria24 October 2019

IAEA

MODARIA II Working Group 1

WG 1: Assessment and Decision Making of Existing Exposure Situations 

for NORM & Nuclear Legacy Sites

• Focus on risk‐informed decision analysis with stakeholder engagement: Approaches Toolsets

• Demonstration through Case Studies of representative NORM and legacy sites

• Technical exchange and Leveraging to maximize impact on mission work

• Training to raise the standard for practice and gain acceptance of desired outcomes

WG1 IAEA Scientific Secretary: WG1 Group Leader:Tamara Yankovich Ming Zhu (US DOE)T.Yankovich@iaea.org Ming.Zhu@em.doe.gov

Status and Remaining Work

• Framework developed for risk‐informed decision analysis with stakeholder engagement

• Modeling analysis is near completion for Case Studies

• Key chapters of the WG1 report are prepared to document methodologies and Case Studies

• Collaborative efforts and Training ongoing• Work planned to complete the WG1 report in 2020• Ideas collected for follow‐up programme to MODARIA II

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Summary of WG1 Activities

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• First MODARIA II Technical Meeting (TM), 31 October‐4 November 2016; Second TM, 30 October to 3 November 2017; Third TM, 22 to 25 October 2018; Fourth TM, 21‐24 October 2019, Vienna, Austria.

• First WG1 Interim Meeting, 26‐30 June, 2017, SCK‐CEN, Brussels, Belgium, including field trip to the Tessenderlo Chemie (TCH) phosphate processing Site. 

• Second WG1 Interim Meeting, 7 to 11 May 2018, Jozef Stefan Institut, Ljubljana, Slovenia, including visit to Žirovski vrh (RŽV) Uranium Mine & Mill Tailings Site. 

• Third WG1 Interim Meeting, 20‐24 May 2019, Oslo, Norway with sponsorship from Norwegian Radiation & Nuclear Security Commission (DSA).

• Two sites (TCH & Zapadnoe) were selected for Case Studies in 2016; A 3rd site (Brazil); was added in 2017 and a 4th site (China) was added in 2018.

• Three additional sites (LANL MDA‐B, Beaverlodge, and RŽV) were selected as examples for sharing good practices and lessons learned.

• Modeling and analyses are either complete or under way for the Case Studies.• A number of publications/presentations.  A WG1 Report is under development. 

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Example Sites: Good Practicesand Lessons Learned

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Material Disposal Area B, Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA

Beaverlodge Mine/Mill Site, Canada Ziroviski vrh Uranium Mine & Mill Tailings Site, Slovenia

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Material Disposal Area B,Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA

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Site layout

Distribution of Pu concentrations from samples

A clean-up area at LANL MDA B

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Beaverlodge Mine/Mill Site Closure

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Beaverlodge Mine/Mill in 1983

2012 Remediation Options Workshop

Modeling Non-Human Biota

Management Framework

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Ziroviski vrh Uranium Mine & Mill Tailings Site, Slovenia

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Site location Jazbec uranium mine

Boršt mill tailings siteDose rate from measurements

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The MODARIA II WG1 Framework

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• Risk‐informed Decision Making with Participation of Interested Parties

• MODARIA I WG1 Report describes the decision analysis process

• Three broad phases to decision analysis 

• Throughout all three phases and iterations through them, modelling and analysis provides a framework to organize and articulate discussions between decision makers, analysts, the technical remediation team and interested parties

• The processes of modelling and analysis typically separate the issues into two distinct categories: Science & Values

• MODARIA I WG1 Report discusses Multi‐Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)

• MODARIA II WG1 focuses on the Bayesian decision analysis

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The MODARIA II WG1 Framework

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• Key aspects of the decision analysis process:Roles and responsibilities of parties Ways of engagement with interested parties (from

MODARIA I) Value systems Decision

• Evaluating Options – Modelling• Decision Making, Exploring and Analysing Decision

Process• Post-Decision Monitoring and Evaluation• Demonstration of the decision analysis approach

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Sites Selected for Case Studies

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Tessenderlo Phosphate Processing SiteBelgium

Zapadnoe Uranium Tailings SiteUkraine

Former NORM Facility in São PauloBrazil

Grote Laak

Winterbeek

Yunnan NORM Site,China

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Tessenderlo (TCH) Phosphate Processing Site, Belgium

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Site locations: The facilities (orange); sludge basin (dark blue); waste water buffer basin (light blue); landfill (green); out of operation (dashed); discharge points to the rivers (yellow)

Sludge pond at the Kepkensberg site

Ra-226 contamination in the Winterbeek River

TCH Phosphate Processing Facility

Grote Laak

Winterbeek

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Zapadnoe Uranium Tailings Site, Ukraine

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Location of Zapadnoe tailingsDistribution of Rn-222 flux (mBq/m2/s) from the surface of Zapadnoe tailings in September 2009

KonoplyankaDnieper

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Former Tin Processing Facility, Brazil

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Site layout

Storage facility

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Yunnan NORM Site Case Study, China

Coal mining and surrounding farmland Tailing and paddy field

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Collaboration with the LeTrench Project

• The LeTrench Project Team shared their draft report; final report expected in the first half of 2019. 

• WG1 and LeTrench participants would jointly prepare a section in the WG1 Report to summarize lessons learned  and explore opportunities for using risk‐informed decision‐making approach in management of legacy trenches with limited data. 

Australia

UK Canada

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Structure of WG1 Case Study Chapters

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• Site and decision context• Site description summary (key aspects – details, 

data, parameterization for an Appendix)

• Need for decision analysis

• Decision analysis process summary (where information available)

• Role of assessment calculations • Role of calculations in original decision analysis

• Role of additional assessment calculations for this case study

• Aims of the comparison process

• Assessment approach (link to IAEA ISAM methodology; incl. scenarios considered; key pathways and receptors; approach to dealing with uncertainties; sensitivity analyses; etc• RESRAD/NORMALYSA/GOLDSIM/AMBER

• Key similarities and differences

• Assessment outcomes• RESRAD/NORMALYSA/GOLDSIM/AMBER

• Key similarities and differences

• Potential implications of the outcomes for decision processes (not necessarily the site decision which is already made, but whatever observations we feel able to make!)• Lessons learned for decision analyses

• Summary of strengths and weaknesses of approaches for consideration in future analyses

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Accomplishments @ MODARIA II TM4

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• Reviewed status of modeling and analyses of the Case Studies: Zapadnoe with GOLDSIM – Paul Black (USA) TCH with AMBER  – Alan Paulley (UK) TCH with GOLDSIM – Paul Black (USA) Brazil – Eduardo F. da Silva (Brazil) Žirovski vrh Case Study with GiST, Paul Black (USA) and Branko Kontic (Slovenia) Linkage between Risk Assessment and Decisions, Branko Kontic and Tine B (Slovenia)

• Updating the WG1 Report: Chapter 1, Introduction Chapter 2, Examples of Current Practices Chapter 4, Additional Considerations Chapter 6, Tessenderlo Case Study Chapter 7, Zapadnoe Case Study Appendices A & B (including details for the Tessenderlo and Zapadnoe Case Studies)

• Planned steps to complete the WG1 Report in 2020• (Plenary) Training Session on NORMALYSA Tool, D. Koliabina, Wednesday 

AM • Made recommendations for Follow‐up Programme to MODARIA II

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Representative Publications & Presentations 

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• ZHU, M., Introduction of MODARIA II Working Group 1, Presented to the U.S. Department of Energy ERAD (Environmental Radiological Assistance Directory), Aug. 16, 2017.

• YANKOVICH, T., AND M. ZHU, Overview of IAEA MODARIA II Working Group 1, Presented to the P&RA CoP 2017 Technical Exchange Meeting, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA, October 19, 2017.

• BLACK, P., Stakeholder Engaged, Risk-Informed Decision Making Framework, Presented to the P&RA CoP 2017 Technical Exchange Meeting, Albuquerque, NM, October 19, 2017.

• WAINWRIGHT, H.W., Define End‐State and Optimize Monitoring Program Using High‐Performance Computing, Presented to the P&RA CoP 2017 Technical Exchange Meeting, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA, October 19, 2017.

• WHICKER, J., Modeling of Resuspension: Prediction and Validation of Radioactive Dust Emissions from Contaminated Areas, Presented to the P&RA CoP 2017 Technical Exchange Meeting, Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA, October 19, 2017

• PUNT, A., M. ZHU, T. YANKOVICH, AND K. BAINES, An IAEA MODARI II Working Group 1 Proposed Study to Better Define End States for NORM and Nuclear Legacy Waste Site, Presented to the International Workshop hosted by the NPRA, Lillehammer, Norway, 21-23 Nov. 2017.

• T., ALMAHAYNI & N. VANHOUDT, Does leaching of naturally occurring radionuclides from roadway pavements stabilised with coal fly ash have negative impacts on groundwater quality and human health? Journal of Hazardous Materials, 349 (2018) 128–134, 2018.

• BLACK, P., Stakeholder Engaged Structured Decision Making to Reduce Costs while Protecting Human Health, Presented at WM2018 Conference, Phoenix, Arizona, USA, March 18-22, 2018.

• WAINWRIGHT, H.W., Sustainable Remediation Processes - Global Insights or Applications, Presented at WM2018 Conference, Phoenix, Arizona, USA, March 18-22, 2018.

• ZHU, M., MODARIA II Working Group 1 Interim Report for period from October 2016 to October 2018, Presented to the IAEA LeTrenchProject, Vienna, Austria, October 2018.

• PEPIN, S., G. Biermans, B. Dehandschutter, S. Radulovic, Chemical and radiological risk-assessment methodology for soil contamination in Belgium: A comparison, 2018.

• ZHU, M. and T. YANKOVICH, Status Update on IAEA MODARIA II Working Group 1 (Assessment and Decision Making) – 19391, WM2019 Conference, Phoenix, Arizona, USA, March 3-7, 2019.

• BLACK, P. K. Catlett, S. Van Sickle, R. Perona, & C. Schaupp, A Comparison of GoldSim, RESRAD-Onsite, and NORMALYSA Modeling Tools at Radioactive Waste Sites – 19480, WM2019 Conference, Phoenix, Arizona, USA, March 3-7, 2019.

• WHICKER, J. et al., Validation Tests of Resuspension Models for a 3 Finite and Infinite Site, Health Physics 117(4):1 · April 2019. • ZHU, M. and T. YANKOVICH, IAEA MODARIA II Working Group 1 (Assessment and Decision Making) Activities and Opportunities,

Presented to the IAEA Consultancy Meeting to establish the Terms of Reference for the new ENVIRONET Decision Making on Environmental Remediation Project, Vienna, Austria, 27-29 May 2019.

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Training 

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Training Session on RESRAD‐Offsite by Charley Yu (USA), MODARIA II TM2, 1 Nov. 2017Training Session on Demonstration of use of Guided Interactive Statistical Decision Tools (GiSdT) for stakeholder‐engaged structured decision‐making by Paul Black and Kelly Black (USA), MODARIA II TM2, 3 Nov. 2017Training Session on NORMALYSA Tool for safety Assessment and Uranium Residues Management by D. Koliabina (Ukraine), MODARIA II TM3, 24 Oct. 2018Training Session Tool for safety Assessment and Uranium Residues Management by D. Koliabina (Ukraine), MODARIA II TM4, 23 Oct. 2019

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MODARIA II WG1 Outcomes, Lessons Learned & Challenges

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• A framework has been developed for risk‐informed decision analysis with stakeholder engagement

• Several case studies are being used to demonstrate the applicability of this approach; additional work is needed to improve model‐data comparisons and demonstrate their role in decision analysis

• Various IAEA (ENVIRONET ‐ DERES, CIDER, RICOMET), NEA (EGLM), EU (TERRITORIES, CONFIDENCE), and other international programs have common interests in this area

• We may be approaching the critical mass to enable change to affect risk‐informed decisions 

• A key challenge is to identify sites to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach to improve future regulatory compliance processes

• We recommend continuation of this effort in a follow‐up programme to MODARIA II

• Opportunities exist for collaboration/leveraging with other programs

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Potential Topics for Follow‐up Programmeto MODARIA II

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• Demonstration of the framework for risk-informed decision analysis with stakeholder engagement for selected sites to improve future regulatory compliance process1. Legacy sites/NORM sites2. planned release scenario/post accident scenario

• Optimization of decommissioning and remediation given improvement in regulations allowing adaptive management (e.g., End State for UK Lead and Learn Site and Sellafield LLW; worker/public safety; ecosystem impact)

• Decision making to account for different attributes of both chemical & physical hazards and radiological risks (i.e., integration & optimization)

• Engineering practicability (e.g., construction quality assurance & slope stability)• Adaptive management with feedback from performance monitoring during and after

implementation of remediation (including knowledge management)• Decision analysis for engineered systems with temporal uncertainty (timing for

action; long-term temporal scale) (with WG6?)• Incorporation of improved/next-generation numerical models for e.g., coupled

geochemical-mechanical processes into risk-informed decision analysis toolsets.

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Plans for Completing the WG1 Report

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• Follow up with WG4 Kd subgroup on discussion of the Kd databases and the use of the Kd approach by November 2019

• Complete Chapters 2 (Current Practice Examples) by December 2019.

• Complete Chapter 4 (Kd, End State) by December 2019.• Complete Chapter 5 (Codes) by December 2019.• Complete the modeling and analyses for the Brazil and China Case 

Studies by March 2020. • Complete Chapters 6‐9 (Case Studies) and associated Appendices by 

March 2020.• Finalize Chapter 1 (Introduction) by March 2020.• Submit the complete draft to IAEA by end of May 2020.

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1ST MODARIA II Technical Meeting__ October 2016, Vienna, Austria

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1st WG1 Interim Meeting, 7‐11 May 2018, Brussels, Belgium

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2nd MODARIA II Technical Meeting30 Oct. ‐ 3 Nov. 2017, Vienna, Austria

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2nd WG1 Interim Meeting, 7‐11 May 2018, Ljubljana, Slovenia

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3rd MODARIA II Technical Meeting22‐25 October 2018, Vienna, Austria

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3rd WG1 Interim Meeting, 20‐24 May 2019, Oslo, Norway

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4th MODARIA II Technical Meeting21‐24 October 2019, Vienna, Austria