MILLESIME BIO TRADE SHOW - VinAvisen...spirits, beer, cider and mixed drinks by volume and value in...
Transcript of MILLESIME BIO TRADE SHOW - VinAvisen...spirits, beer, cider and mixed drinks by volume and value in...
MILLESIME BIO TRADE SHOW
Press conference London - 27 November 2018
Since 1993, Millésime Bio has been organised by Sudvinbio, the Occitanie Trade Association of Organic Winegrowers
A non-profit making trade organisation, founded in 1991, which includes both producers (private and cooperative wineries) and merchants of organic wine from the Occitanie region (Languedoc-Roussillon + Midi-Pyrénées, France’s biggest organic vineyard)
Nearly 70% of regional production of organic certified wines represented (around 900,000 hl and 350 members)
Missions: Promotion and communications, Defense of the interests of members Acquiring technical and economic market expertise Diffusion of knowledge and expertise Participation in institutional exchanges in France and at European level
A wine fair organised by a trade association: SUDVINBIO
OCCITANIE: A NEW FRENCH REGION
Organic vine : 20 000 ha
A UNIQUE CONCEPT SINCE 1993 • Created and organised since 1993 by the winemakers of the trade association Sudvinbio
• No marketing hype - identical stands. Let the wine make the difference! • Restricted exclusively to trade visitors • The only professional wine fair dedicated to organic wine, where conviviality and efficiency go hand in hand!
Millésime Bio: a one of a kind trade show
THE INTERNATIONAL MEETING PLACE FOR THE WORLD OF ORGANIC WINE
• 2018 edition 980 exhibitors from 16 countries (100% certified) 5,700 unique visitors (25% from outside France)
• A much-loved trade event 87% of visitors 92% of exhibitors plan to come back in 2019!
And: self-service tasting areas, organic wine market and technical conferences…
Millésime Bio : a one of a kind trade show
THE INTERNATIONAL MEETING PLACE FOR THE WORLD OF ORGANIC WINE • 1200 + exhibitors from all producing countries – nothing else but wine! Approximately 75% French, 25% other countries Private wineries, Cooperative wineries, Boutique wine makers, Global players
• 2 self-service tasting areas : Enoteca Challenge Millésime Bio contest award-winners • A new space for other organic alcoholic beverages (beer, liquor, cider) • A festive evening Monday 28 january from 8 pm Millésime Bio will be showcasing organic Vins de Pays d’Oc this year, during a
festive evening event.
Millésime Bio 2019 – 28, 29, 30 jan. 2019
THE INTERNATIONAL MEETING PLACE FOR THE WORLD OF ORGANIC WINE
• Conferences provisional schedule: Tuesday 01/29: - What’s an organic wine? - Overview of French and European organic wines (rules, surfaces, consumption…) with the French Agence Bio and various speakers, - Focus on foreign markets by IWSR - Focus on specific trends (to be determined)
Wednesday 01/30: - Technical conferences in partnership with the French IFV (French Wine Institute), focus on organic wine-growing and organic wine-making issues.
Millésime Bio 2019 – 28, 29, 30 jan. 2019
THE INTERNATIONAL ORGANIC WINE CONTEST
• Tasting on Tuesday, Jan. 15, in Montpellier • 2019 president of the jury: Philippe Faure-Brac best sommelier of the world in 1992 and president of the Union of French Sommellerie.
• 2018 edition main facts President of the jury: Klauss Herrmann (Wein+Markt) 1,516 entries tasted 434 medals:
Full list of award winners on www.challenge-millesime-bio.com
Challenge Millésime Bio 2019 – 15 Jan. 2019
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
Philippe GERARD Sudvinbio (Biovidis) Anne SUTRA DE GERMA Sudvinbio (Domaine Montplézy)
MORE : www.millesime-bio.com
THE GLOBAL ORGANIC WINE MARKET 2012-22 November 2018
ABOUT
About the IWSR • The IWSR is the leading source of data and analysis on the alcoholic beverage market. The IWSR’s database, essential to the industry, quantifies the global market of wine,
spirits, beer, cider and mixed drinks by volume and value in 157 countries, and provides insight into short-and long-term trends, including five-year volume and value forecasts.
• The IWSR tracks overall consumption and trends at brand, price segment and category level. Our data is used by the major multinational wine, spirits and beer companies, as well as financial and alcoholic beverage market suppliers. The IWSR’s unique methodology allows us to get closer to what is actually consumed and better understand how markets work. Our analysts travel the world in order to meet over 1,600 local professionals to capture market trends and the ‘why’ behind the numbers.
Methodology • We are the only research company to visit the key players (importers, producers, distributors, retailers, duty-free operators) in around 120 countries globally each year. This
allows us to gain a far better understanding of the dynamics of a market, which helps us to explain why certain trends occur and to adjust official statistics to match reality.
• In order to generate the IWSR’s 2018 forecasts, we are using powerful data science techniques, with results then subject to further analysis and sense checking by our highly experienced country researchers:
• Time Series Analysis is applied to historical IWSR back data to generate forecast numbers at multiple levels including subcategory and price band.
• These statistically generated forecasts are sense checked by our country experts, and adjusted where additional factors need to be considered, e.g. major legislative changes expected, anticipated launch activity, etc.
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ABOUT (Cont’d)
• Historical data for organic wines was compiled specifically for the purpose of this report and, as a result, dates back five years to 2012. This lack of historical data means that normal IWSR forecasting techniques based on Time Series Analysis cannot reliably be applied and, therefore, organic forecasts are made for each market depending on recent trajectory, assumptions made about supply and any other significant market factors, including macro-economic development and the legislative environment.
• Value figures are calculated by pegging average organic wine prices in 2017 to average prices per respective country of origin (across all channels), and projected backwards based on the recent price evolution across all still wines per country of origin. This is then projected forwards and multiplied by forecast volume development. As such, value forecasts do not account for general price inflation and are indicative only, based on the assumptions that recent price evolution continuing over the coming five-year period, and that organic wine pricing evolution broadly matches that of the wider category.
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IWSR
Trade Interviews
Proprietary Data
External Data Sources
Organic Wine – Growth has been driven by Europe which accounts for 77% of the global market. AME’s rapid growth is driven by South Africa, though from a low base.
21,4 25,1
31,3 35,7
40,4 43,6 4,1 4,2
4,6
5,1
5,6 6,3
3,3 3,9
4,4
4,8
5,1 5,5
0,1 0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5 0,6
0,2 0,2
0,2
0,2
0,2 0,3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7
G L OBAL O RG ANIC S T ILL W I NE C O NSUMPTION 2 012-17 ( MI LLIONS 9 L C A SES)
CIS
AME*
APAC
Americas
Europe
CAGR 2012-17
Source: The IWSR Excludes Travel Retail *Africa & Middle East
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ORGANIC STILL WINE
ORGANIC STILL WINE
77%
11%
10%
1% 0,4%
SHARE BY REGION 2017
2017 56.3m cases
+4.0%
+52.5%
+10.6%
+9.1%
+15.3%
Organic Wine – European domination is due to Germany, France, UK and Sweden. Combined they account for over half of net growth in 2012-17. The US and Japan are key non-European markets.
Leading Markets 2017 (Mns 9l cases)
Rk COUNTRY Volume 2017 Share 2017 CAGR 2012-17
1 Germany 13.5 23.9% 17.9%
2 France 9.3 16.4% 15.1%
3 UK 5.7 10.2% 11.2%
4 US 4.5 7.9% 12.4%
5 Sweden 4.2 7.4% 34.6%
6 Japan 3.4 6.0% 8.2%
7 Austria 1.9 3.4% 3.9%
8 Italy 1.3 2.4% 30.0%
9 Spain 1.3 2.2% 45.0%
10 Hungary 1.2 2.0% 2.0%
- Others 10.2 18.1% 10.0% - Total 56.3 - 14.1%
Growth Markets 2012-17 (Mns 9l cases)
Rk COUNTRY Volume 2017 Growth 2012-17
Net Growth Share 2017
1 Germany 13.5 7.6 27.7%
2 France 9.3 4.7 17.2%
3 Sweden 4.2 3.2 11.9%
4 UK 5.7 2.4 8.7%
5 US 4.5 2.0 7.2%
6 Japan 3.4 1.1 4.0%
7 Spain 1.3 1.1 3.9%
8 Italy 1.3 1.0 3.6%
9 Norway 0.6 0.5 2.0%
10 China 0.8 0.5 1.7%
- Others 11.9 3.3 12.2% - Total 56.3 27.2 -
14 Source: The IWSR Excludes Travel Retail
ORGANIC STILL WINE
ORGANIC STILL WINE
UK
Forecast
Organic still wine will both continue to take share from non-organic and increase in overall volume, in a generally difficult market. While overall the decline in wine consumption will accelerate, forecast growth for organic wine in the UK will hardly be impacted. A rate of 5% of overall still wine consumption is significant given the low profile of its domestic production of wine overall.
122,1 108,6 92,1
3,4
5,7
9,0
2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 2
S T ILL W I NE O RG ANIC V S N O N-ORG ANIC ( M I L L I O N S 9 L C A S E S )
Non-Organic Organic
Source: The IWSR Excludes Travel Retail
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Share Volume 2017
CAGR 2012-17
CAGR 2017-22
Organic 5.0% 5.7 11.2% 9.4%
Non-Organic 95.0% 108.6 -2.3% -3.2%
Total 114.3 -1.8% -2.4%
£10.21
The Old World accounts for 72% of organic sales with France, Italy and Spain at the forefront. There is no domestic industry of note. Meanwhile, red wines account for six in ten bottles sold. Consumers pay on average 38% more for a bottle of organic vs. non-organic wine – almost £3 extra per bottle.
27%
24%
21%
10% 7%
11%
France Italy Spanish Chile New Zealand Others
Source: The IWSR Excludes Travel Retail
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60%
5%
35%
Red Rose White
2017
5,715
£7.38
2017 2017 +38%
Organic Wine Share by Origin (Volume 000s 9l cases)
Organic Wine Share by Colour
Average Price per 75cl
*IWSR segmentation is based on price and converted to equivalent price points for global comparison. Equivalent price points are: Super Premium+ (>£15); Premium (£8.00-£14.99); Standard (£5.00-£7.99); Value and Below (<£4.99)
Non-Organic Organic
Forecast
3,36 3,53 3,72 4,13 4,86 5,72 6,23 6,73 7,33 8,07 8,95
2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 2 0 2 2
Organic growth is forecast to decelerate slightly due to greater market penetration and a generally bad outlook for wine overall. However, it is expected that organic wine may reach just under 9% of total still wine consumption by 2022.
Source: The IWSR Excludes Travel Retail
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+5% +11% +5% +18% +18% +9% +8% +9% +10% +11% YOY:
Forecast
3,4
5,7
9,0
376
700
1 154
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Valu
e
Volu
me
Organic Still Wine Consumption 2012-2022 (Millions 9L cases, Millions £)
Volume Value
Organic wine value is expected to outperform volume development. The organic wine segment is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10.5% to reach £1.15bn by 2022. Volume growth is forecast to be slower at the still healthy CAGR of 9.4%.
Source: The IWSR Excludes Travel Retail
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2022 CAGR 2012-17
CAGR 2017-22
Value (Mns) £1,154.4 13.2% 10.5%
Volume 9.0 11.2% 9.4%
Summary
Total UK wine consumption is in decline. Still wine is losing share to sparkling, but it still accounts for over eight in every ten bottles consumed.
Organic wines have taken share from non-organic, and are growing in a declining market, with a CAGR of over 11% in 2012-17. However, they remain niche. The average price per bottle is £10.21 (vs £7.38 market average)1.
Australia is the leading country of origin for the entire still wine category, but in the organic wine space other suppliers come to the fore – notably from the Old World.
Similarly, organic wines are skewed towards red wine, whereas across the market as a whole the share between red and white is more evenly distributed.
UK shoppers are still a little confused about organic wines, but fundamentals are solid with organic foodstuffs growing in popularity. Health awareness, premiumisation and increased availability are other key factors.
While organic is growing strongly, still wine as a whole is nonetheless in decline. As a result, organic growth is forecast to be held back by overarching still wine consumption decline.
Source: The IWSR 1. Excludes Travel Retail
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LOOKING AHEAD
PROJECTIONS
0
20
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60
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180
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
ORGANIC GRAPE AREA UNDER VINE1 2007-22 (THOUSANDS HECTARES (Ha))
Spain France Italy Others
Area under Vine – Organic area under vine1 has increased by 234% since 2007 and in 2017 surpassed 400k Ha. Spain, France and Italy are pioneering organic winemaking.
Sources: Unione Italiana Vini; Sudvinbio/Agence Bio; Magrama; IWSR Projections. 1. Includes table grapes, assumed to be a minority
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26%
19%
25%
30%
2017 408k Ha
ORGANIC STILL WINE
ORGANIC STILL WINE
GROWTH FOUNDATIONS
2022
Premium
High Earners
Conscientious consumption
Urbanisation
Retail
Demographics
Source: The IWSR 23
Distribution
Organic Wine – As organic geography expands, smaller markets like Spain, Norway, South Africa will be among the largest-growth markets in 2017-22. Still though, Germany and France will account for over 50% of net growth.
Leading Markets 2017 (Mns 9l cases)
Rk COUNTRY Volume 2017 Share 2017 CAGR 2012-17
1 Germany 13.5 23.9% 17.9%
2 France 9.3 16.4% 15.1%
3 UK 5.7 10.2% 11.2%
4 US 4.5 7.9% 12.4%
5 Sweden 4.2 7.4% 34.6%
6 Japan 3.4 6.0% 8.2%
7 Austria 1.9 3.4% 3.9%
8 Italy 1.3 2.4% 30.0%
9 Spain 1.3 2.2% 45.0%
10 Hungary 1.2 2.0% 2.0%
- Others 10.2 18.1% 10.0% - Total 56.3 - 14.1%
Growth Markets 2017-22 (Mns 9l cases) 1
Rk COUNTRY Volume 2022 Growth 2017-22
CAGR 2017-22
1 Germany 23.1 9.7 11.4%
2 France 17.3 8.0 13.3%
3 US 8.7 4.2 14.3%
4 UK 9.0 3.2 9.4%
5 Spain 2.2 1.0 12.4%
6 Japan 4.2 0.8 4.5%
7 Norway 1.0 0.5 13.5%
8 South Africa 0.9 0.4 13.6%
9 Italy 1.7 0.4 5.4%
10 China 1.2 0.4 8.4%
- Others 18.1 2.5 3.0% - Total 87.5 31.2 9.2%
24 Source: The IWSR Excludes Travel Retail 1. Sorted by actual growth
ORGANIC STILL WINE
ORGANIC STILL WINE
Organic Wine – Growth in Sweden is forecast to slow considerably due to market saturation; it will nonetheless account for over 20% of domestic sales.
Source: The IWSR Excludes Travel Retail
25
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17%
FOCUS MARKETS 2022 VS 5YR CAGR 2017-22 AND ORGANIC SHARE OF DOMESTIC MARKET
ORGANIC SHARE
5-yr VOLUME GROWTH
ORGANIC STILL WINE
ORGANIC STILL WINE
SWEDEN Size: 4.1m cases CAGR: -0.3% Org Share: 21.0%
GERMANY Size: 23.1m cases CAGR: 11.4% Org Share: 10.6%
JAPAN Size: 4.2m cases CAGR: 4.5% Org Share: 12.2%
FRANCE Size: 17.3m cases CAGR: 13.3% Org Share: 7.7%
CANADA Size: 0.4m cases CAGR: 1.0% Org Share: 0.7%
UK Size: 9.0m cases CAGR: 9.4% Org Share: 8.9%
US Size: 8.7m cases CAGR: 14.3% Org Share: 2.6%