Milk Market Situation Brussels, 21 October 2010
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Transcript of Milk Market Situation Brussels, 21 October 2010
Milk Market Situation
Brussels, 21 October 2010
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 2
!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!
EU Productions
EU-27 Deliveries/Productions development(Jan-Jul 2010 compared to Jan-Jul 2009)
Total Butter- 5.4%
Cows' Milk Collected+ 0.0%
Skimmed-milk powder- 10.9%
Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed
milk powder- 2.8%
Cheese+ 1.8%
Fermented milk+ 2.8%
-14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Ev
olu
tio
n e
n %
Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat
EU-27 Deliveries/Production developments(April-Jul 10 compared to April-Jul 09)
Total Butter- 2.7%
Skimmed-milk powder- 7.6%
Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed
milk powder- 4.7%
Cheese+ 2.1%
Fermented milk+ 2.8%
Cows' Milk Collected+ 1.0%
-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Ev
olu
tio
n e
n %
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 3Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat
Monthly Deliveries EU 27
9 000
9 500
10 000
10 500
11 000
11 500
12 000
12 500
13 000
DNOSAJJMAMFJ
1000 t
onne
s
2007 2008 2009 2010
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 4
Sources : MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 & 479/2010, LTO website
Milk Prices Evolution (up to August 2010)
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
Jan
01
Jul 0
1
Jan
02
Jul 0
2
Jan
03
Jul 0
3
Jan
04
Jul 0
4
Jan
05
Jul 0
5
Jan
06
Jul 0
6
Jan
07
Jul 0
7
Jan
08
Jul 0
8
Jan
09
Jul 0
9
Jan
10
Jul 1
0
EUR/100 kg
LTO Weighted Average Milk Price * (standardized 4.2% fat)
Weighted EU Average (real fat content)
EU Milk Equivalent Price (based on EU SMP and Butter prices)
LTO : Land- en Tuinbouworganisatie Nederland (http://www.milkprices.nl/)
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 5
EU Milk Prices(August 2010 compared to August 2009)
51.4
41.8
39.3
36.835.1
34.1 33.832.8 32.2 31.9 31.9 31.8 31.5 31.1
29.929.1 28.6 28.1 27.6 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6
25.324.4
22.921.2
14
18
22
26
30
34
38
42
46
50
54
CY MT FI EL SE FR NL IT DK IE AT DE EU27
BE LU UK ES CZ EE PL PT SK BG SI HU LV LT RO
in E
UR
/10
0 k
g
Milk Price 2009 Milk Price 2010
Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010
NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010
August data not received from PT, replaced by DG Agri estimates / Agrimer estimate for FR
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 6
Monthly EU15/25 SMP Prices
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
EU
R/1
00 k
g
2007 2008 2009 2 010 I P 2009
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 7
EU SMP Prices(up to 14/10/10)
241.1229.0 224.9 224.8 221.7 221.0 217.5 213.5 211.4 210.8
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
LV FR PL SK EU 27 BE DE IE CZ UK
in E
UR
/10
0 k
g
Source: MS’ communications under reg. 479/2010
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 8
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
Weeks in 2010
EU
R/1
00 k
g kg
SMP Intervention qualityEU weighted average
SMP Animal feed qualityEU weighted average
Comparison of EU weighted average SMP prices for food and feed purposes
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 9
Monthly EU15/25 BUTTER Prices
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
EU
R/1
00 k
g
2007 2008 2009 2 010 I P 2009
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 10
EU Butter Prices (up to 17.10.2010)
414
383 377 373 367 362 359359 356 350 345339
298
339
428
150
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
475
HU SK DE NL GB DK BE PL CZ FR PT IT IE LV ES
EU
R/1
00 k
g
Butter Price of Reg. 479/2010
Butter Intervention price
EU-27 weighted average
I.P. = 221.75
Source: MS’ communications under reg. 479/2010
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 11
EU Quotations of Butter and SMP(EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)
2 217
3 614
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
Jan
03
May
03
Sep
03
Jan
04
May
04
Sep
04
Jan
05
May
05
Sep
05
Jan
06
May
06
Sep
06
Jan
07
May
07
Sep
07
Jan
08
May
08
Sep
08
Jan
09
May
09
Sep
09
Jan
10
May
10
Sep
10
Pri
ces
in E
UR
/to
nn
e
SMP Butter
Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 12Source: MS’ communications
13 021 T.
Butter Stocks20.10.2010
Private Storage : 63 975 Tons
Intervention Stocks : 4 263 Tonsof which Most Deprived : 1 545 TonsAvailable : 0 Ton
84 T.
254 T.
0 T.
0 T.
0 T.
0 T.
182 T.
0 T.
1 363 T.
0 T.
0 T.
0 T.
5 313 T.
8 094 T.
1 T.
0 T.
5 550 T.
17 066 T.
0 T.
104 T.
0 T.
8 039 T.
2 220 T.
12 577 T.
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 13Source: MS’ communications
Intervention Stocks : 195 337 Tonsof which Most Deprived : 93 899 Tonsavailable for sale : 54 705 Tons
SMP Stocks06.10.2010
24 122T.
63 463 T.
32 170 T.
23 888T.
17 835 T.
16 646 T
3 046 T.
3 614 T. 1 052 T.
1 665 T.
4 632 T.
2 597 T.
607 T. 0 T.
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 14
Monthly EU15/25 WMP Prices
150170
190210230250
270290310
330350370
390410
Jan Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2007 2008 2009 2 010 Virt. I P 2009
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 15
Monthly EU CHEDDAR Prices
180
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2007 2008 2009 2010
Monthly EU15/25 EDAM Prices
200220240260280300320340360380400420
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2007 2008 2009 2 010
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 16
Monthly EU15/25 WheyPowder Prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2007 2008 2009 2 010
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 17
EU Income of manufacturing of Cheese/Wheypowder, SMP/Butter and WMP/Butter in EUR
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
Ma
r 0
7
Ma
y 0
7
Jul 0
7
Se
p 0
7
No
v 0
7
Jan
08
Ma
r 0
8
Ma
y 0
8
Jul 0
8
Se
p 0
8
No
v 0
8
Jan
09
Ma
r 0
9
Ma
y 0
9
Jul 0
9
Se
p 0
9
No
v 0
9
Jan
10
Ma
r 1
0
Ma
y 1
0
Jul 1
0
Se
p 1
0
EU
R f
or
10
00
kg
of
Milk
Cheese/Butter/Whey
SMP/Butter
WMP/Butter
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 18
WORLD Income of manufacturing of Cheese/Wheypowder, SMP/Butter and WMP/Butter (in USD).
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
Ma
r 0
7
Ma
y 0
7
Jul 0
7
Se
p 0
7
No
v 0
7
Jan
08
Ma
r 0
8
Ma
y 0
8
Jul 0
8
Se
p 0
8
No
v 0
8
Jan
09
Ma
r 0
9
Ma
y 0
9
Jul 0
9
Se
p 0
9
No
v 0
9
Jan
10
Ma
r 1
0
Ma
y 1
0
Jul 1
0
Se
p 1
0
US
D f
or
10
00
kg
of
Milk
Cheese/Butter/Whey
SMP/Butter
WMP/Butter
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 19
USD/EUR
1.3861
Source: European Central Bank
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 20
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter
4 350
5 045
4 815
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
5 500
6 000Ju
n 0
3
Oct
03
Fe
b 0
4
Jun
04
Oct
04
Fe
b 0
5
Jun
05
Oct
05
Fe
b 0
6
Jun
06
Oct
06
Fe
b 0
7
Jun
07
Oct
07
Fe
b 0
8
Jun
08
Oct
08
Fe
b 0
9
Jun
09
Oct
09
Fe
b 1
0
Jun
10
Oct
10
Pri
ce
s i
n U
SD
/to
nn
e
Avg Oceania Butter quotation
Avg EU Butter internal Price
Avg US Butter quotation
Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 21
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP
3 150
3 095
2 700
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
5 500
Jun
03
Oct
03
Feb
04
Jun
04
Oct
04
Feb
05
Jun
05
Oct
05
Feb
06
Jun
06
Oct
06
Feb
07
Jun
07
Oct
07
Feb
08
Jun
08
Oct
08
Feb
09
Jun
09
Oct
09
Feb
10
Jun
10
Oct
10
Pri
ces
in U
SD
/to
nn
e
Avg Oceania SMP quotation
Avg EU SMP internal Price
Avg US SMP quotation
Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 22
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP
3 450
3 800
3 725
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
5 500
6 000Ju
n 03
Oct
03
Feb
04
Jun
04
Oct
04
Feb
05
Jun
05
Oct
05
Feb
06
Jun
06
Oct
06
Feb
07
Jun
07
Oct
07
Feb
08
Jun
08
Oct
08
Feb
09
Jun
09
Oct
09
Feb
10
Jun
10
Oct
10
Pri
ces
in U
SD
/to
nn
e
Avg Oceania WMP quotation
Avg EU WMP internal Price
Avg US WMP quotation
Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 23
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar
4 050
4 385
3 890
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
5 500
6 000
Jun
03
Oct
03
Feb
04
Jun
04
Oct
04
Feb
05
Jun
05
Oct
05
Feb
06
Jun
06
Oct
06
Feb
07
Jun
07
Oct
07
Feb
08
Jun
08
Oct
08
Feb
09
Jun
09
Oct
09
Feb
10
Jun
10
Oct
10
Pri
ces
in U
SD
/to
nn
e
Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation
Avg EU Cheddar internal Price
Avg US Cheddar quotation
Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 24
BUTTER Exports
33 95421 852
81 428 78 918
147 684
174 265
32 957
8 354
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
200 000
2009 2010
EU-27 (Jan - Aug)New Zealand (Jan-Aug )Australia (Jan-Aug )United States (Jan-Aug )
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 25
BUTTEROIL Exports
17 526
89 514
11 8833 368
19 116
111 929
20 963
6 198
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
2009 2010
EU-27 (Jan - Aug)New Zealand (Jan-Aug )Australia (Jan-Aug )United States (Jan-Aug )
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 26
SMP Exports
119
379
73 7
55
223 398
134 755
251 629
220 229
260 689
164 050
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
2009 2010
EU-27 (Jan - Aug)
New Zealand (Jan-Aug )
Australia (Jan-Aug )
United States (Jan-Aug )
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 27
WMP Exports
312 573
580 142
11 080 3 996
327 372
509 11991
406
68 4
42
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
2009 2010
EU-27 (Jan - Aug)
New Zealand (Jan-Aug )
Australia (Jan-Aug )
Brazil (Jan-Aug )
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 28
CHEESESExports
362 488
434 217 1
91 3
48
183
386
102
446
106
161
69 589
114 592
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
350 000
400 000
450 000
500 000
2009 2010
EU-27 (Jan - Aug)New Zealand (Jan-Aug )Australia (Jan-Aug )United States (Jan-Aug )
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 29
BUTTER Imports
34 721 36 023
28 138
23 880
3 4075 884
10 29310 384
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
2009 2010
EU-27 (Jan - Aug)United States (Jan-Aug )Russia (Jan-Aug )China (Jan-Aug )
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 30
BUTTEROIL Imports
1 749
7 347
19 233
7 944
1 813
10 529
25 113
5 771
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
2009 2010
EU-27 (Jan - Aug)United States (Jan-Aug )Mexico (Jan-Jun )China (Jan-Aug )
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 31
SMP Imports
45 761
60 008
33 467
3 884 2 702
63 633
88 539
1 502
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
100 000
2009 2010
EU-27 (Jan - Aug)
Mexico (Jan-Jun )
China (Jan-Aug )
Russia (Jan-Aug )
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 32
WMP Imports
1 478 5 392
117 356
226 606
136 15 512 205 7 269
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
2009 2010
EU-27 (Jan - Aug)
United States (Jan-Aug )
Russia (Jan-Aug )
China (Jan-Aug )
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 33
CHEESESImports
51 225 53 664
143 150
187 381
117 568130 816
105 233
84 327
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
180 000
200 000
2009 2010
EU-27 (Jan - Aug)Russia (Jan-Aug )Japan (Jan-Aug )United States (Jan-Aug )
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 34
Prices
in US$/t Dec-10 Jan-Mar 11 Apr-June 11Weighted
average price % changeAMF 5 175 5 126 5 470 5 196 -1.2%BMP 3 000 3 125 no offer 3 033 -1.1%SMP 2 927 3 094 3 250 3 072 -4.7%WMP 3 485 3 470 3 542 3 484 -1.1%
19/10/2010 1 € = 1.3859 $ (ECB rate)
in €/t Dec-10 Jan-Mar 11 Apr-June 11Weighted
average priceAMF 3 734 3 699 3 947 3 749BMP 2 165 2 255 #VALUE! 2 188SMP 2 112 2 232 2 345 2 216WMP 2 515 2 504 2 556 2 514
Quantitiesin t Dec-10 Jan-Mar 11 Apr-June 11 Total Diff volumeAMF 850 1 500 450 2 800 0BMP 700 300 1 000 0SMP 3 000 3 500 2 000 8 500 1 500WMP 10 500 11 000 2 500 24 000 2 000
Source: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/
Results of the Fonterra Auction of 19.10.2010
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 35
Anhydrous Milk Fat
Source: graph based on information available on http://www.globaldairytrade.info/
AMF - offered quantities and weighted average price
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
03-Nov-09 01-Dec-09
05-Jan-10 02-Feb-10
02-Mar-10
06-Apr-10 04-May-10
01-Jun-10 06-Jul-10 03-Aug-10
01-Sep-10
15-Sep-10
05-Oct-1019-Oct-10
in t
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
in U
S$
Contract 1 (month + 2) Contract 2 (3 months after month + 2) Contract 3 (3 months after month + 5) Weighted average price
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 36
Buttermilk Powder
Source: graph based on information available on http://www.globaldairytrade.info/
BMP - offered quantities and weighted average price
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
03-Aug-10 01-Sep-10 15-Sep-10 05-Oct-10 19-Oct-10
in t
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
in U
S$
Contract 1 (month + 2) Contract 2 (3 months after month + 2) Contract 3 (3 months after month + 5) Weighted average price
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 37
Skimmed Milk Powder
Source: graph based on information available on http://www.globaldairytrade.info/
SMP - offered quantities and weighted average price
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
02-Mar-10 06-Apr-10 04-May-10 01-Jun-10 06-Jul-10 03-Aug-10 01-Sep-10 15-Sep-10 05-Oct-10 19-Oct-10
in t
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
in U
S$
Contract 1 (month + 2) Contract 2 (3 months after month + 2) Contract 3 (3 months after month + 5) Weighted average price
Market Situation, 21 October 2010 38
Whole Milk Powder
Source: graph based on information available on http://www.globaldairytrade.info/
WMP - offered quantities and weighted average price
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
02-Ju
l-08
05-A
ug-0
8
02-S
ep-0
8
01-O
ct-08
04-N
ov-0
8
02-D
ec-0
8
06-Ja
n-09
03-F
eb-0
9
03-M
ar-0
9
01-A
pr-0
9
12-M
ay-0
9
02-Ju
n-09
01-Ju
l-09
04-A
ug-0
9
01-S
ep-0
9
06-O
ct-09
03-N
ov-0
9
01-D
ec-0
9
05-Ja
n-10
02-F
eb-1
0
02-M
ar-1
0
06-A
pr-1
0
04-M
ay-1
0
01-Ju
n-10
06-Ju
l-10
03-A
ug-1
0
01-S
ep-1
0
15-S
ep-1
0
05-O
ct-10
19-O
ct-10
in t
0
250
500
750
1 000
1 250
1 500
1 750
2 000
2 250
2 500
2 750
3 000
3 250
3 500
3 750
4 000
4 250
4 500
4 750
in U
S$
Contract 1 (month + 2) Contract 2 (3 months after month + 2) Contract 3 (3 months after month + 5) Weighted average price