Milk Market Situation Brussels, 03 March 2011

Milk Market Situation

Brussels, 03 March 2011

Market Situation, 03 March 2011 2

!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!

EU Productions

EU-27 Deliveries/Productions development(Jan-Dec 2010 compared to Jan-Dec 2009)

Total Butter- 2.8%

Cows' Milk Collected+ 1.2%

Skimmed-milk powder- 7.6%

Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed

milk powder- 0.2%

Cheese+ 2.1%

Fermented milk+ 2.7%

-14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Ev

olu

tio

n e

n %

Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat

EU-27 Deliveries/Production developments(Apr-Dec 10 compared to Apr-Dec 09)

Total Butter- 0.5%

Skimmed-milk powder- 4.5%

Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed

milk powder- 0.2%

Cheese+ 2.4%

Fermented milk+ 2.5%

Cows' Milk Collected+ 2.1%

-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

Ev

olu

tio

n e

n %


-12.0% to -9.0% -9.0% to -6.0% -6.0% to -3.0% -3.0% to +0.0% +0.0% to +3.0% +3.0% to +6.0% +6.0% to +9.0% +9.0% to +12.0%

+4,0

-6,8

-1,6

+1,6

+1,5

+2,0

+9,0

+0,6+1,4

+2,9

-1,4

+1,6

+5,0

+0,2

+4,0

-10,0

0

+1,1

+2,7

-1,6

-2,4

-7,8+0,5

-6,1

+0,3

-2,4

+2,7


-12.0% to -9.0% -9.0% to -6.0% -6.0% to -3.0% -3.0% to +0.0% +0.0% to +3.0% +3.0% to +6.0% +6.0% to +9.0% +9.0% to +12.0%

+5,6

-3,1

-1,1

+1,9

+2,3

+3,9

+12,0

+0,5+1,6

+4,5

-2,1

+2,5

+6,7

+2,5

+4,8

-8,9

0

+1,3

+3,3

-0,9

-1,9

-8,2+0,9

-4,8

-0,1

-1,6

+3,8

Market Situation, 03 March 2011 5Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat

Monthly Deliveries EU 27

9 000

9 500

10 000

10 500

11 000

11 500

12 000

12 500

13 000

DNOSAJJMAMFJ

1000 t

onne

s

2007 2008 2009 2010


EU 15 Milk Productions and Prices

9 662

9 035

10 21010 35510 696

10 0579 842

9 466

8 8699 125

8 816 8 944

10 19110 320

10 900

10 29110 053

9 7909 367

9 5649 151

9 4629 528

9 314

34.81

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Jan

09

Feb

09

Mar

09

Apr

09

May

09

Jun

09

Jul 0

9

Aug

09

Sep

09

Oct

09

Nov

09

Dec

09

Jan

10

Feb

10

Mar

10

Apr

10

May

10

Jun

10

Jul 1

0

Aug

10

Sep

10

Oct

10

Nov

10

Dec

10

1 00

0 T

on

s

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

11 000

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Raw Milk Deliveries

Weighted average Raw Milk Price paid to Producers

Source : Eurostat, Reg. (EC) No 429/2010 Art. 3


EU 12 Milk Productions and Prices

1492 1380 1541 1543 1713 1685 1679 1656 1536 1464 1343 1402 1404 1292 1477 1510 1651 1634 1632 1620 1534 1477 14051355

29.92

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Jan

09

Feb

09

Mar

09

Apr

09

May

09

Jun

09

Jul 0

9

Aug

09

Sep

09

Oct

09

Nov

09

Dec

09

Jan

10

Feb

10

Mar

10

Apr

10

May

10

Jun

10

Jul 1

0

Aug

10

Sep

10

Oct

10

Nov

10

Dec

10

1 00

0 T

on

s

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

11 000

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Raw Milk Deliveries

Weighted average Raw Milk Price paid to Producers

Source : Eurostat, Reg. (EC) No 429/2010 Art. 3


Sources : MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 & 479/2010, LTO website

Milk Prices Evolution (up to December 2010)

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

Ap

r 0

1

Oct

01

Ap

r 0

2

Oct

02

Ap

r 0

3

Oct

03

Ap

r 0

4

Oct

04

Ap

r 0

5

Oct

05

Ap

r 0

6

Oct

06

Ap

r 0

7

Oct

07

Ap

r 0

8

Oct

08

Ap

r 0

9

Oct

09

Ap

r 1

0

Oct

10

EUR/100 kg

LTO Weighted Average Milk Price * (standardized 4.2% fat)

Weighted EU Average (real fat content)

EU Milk Equivalent Price (based on EU SMP and Butter prices)

LTO : Land- en Tuinbouworganisatie Nederland (http://www.milkprices.nl/)


EU Milk Prices(December 2010 compared to December 2009)

51.7

46.1

41.0 40.639.0

36.935.7 35.3 34.8 34.4 33.8 33.2 32.7 32.5 32.2 32.1 31.7 31.3 31.0 30.8 30.6 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.0 28.9

27.726.6

14

18

22

26

30

34

38

42

46

50

54

CY MT SE FI EL DK NL AT IT DE BE EU27

IE LU PT FR BG ES CZ EE SK UK PL LT HU SI LV RO

in E

UR

/10

0 k

g

Milk Price 2009 Milk Price 2010

Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010

NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010


EU 27 BUTTER+BUTTEROI L Production

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

DNOSAJJMAMFJ

100

0 t

onne

s

2007 2008 2009 2010


EU 27 SMP Production

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

DNOSAJJMAMFJ

1000 t

onne

s

2007 2008 2009 2010


EU 27 CHEESES Production

560

580

600

620

640

660

680

700

720

740

DNOSAJJMAMFJ

1000 t

onne

s

2007 2008 2009 2010


Monthly EU15/25 SMP Prices

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

2008 2009 2 010 2 011 I P 2009

Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010


EU SMP Prices(up to 27/02/2011)

298.1289.8 285.0

251.6237.6 235.4 230.0 227.7 223.2 218.4

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

LV BE DE EU 27 CZ PL SK FR UK IE

in E

UR

/10

0 k

g

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 479/2010


Monthly EU15/25 BUTTER Prices

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

2008 2009 2 010 2 011 I P 2009



EU Butter Prices (up to 27.02.2011)

406 404 400 394

374 372360363

341 339332

419

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

475

SK NL CZ BE DE PL PT ES FR LV IE GB

EUR/1

00 k

g

Butter Price of Reg. 479/2010Butter Intervention price

EU-27 weighted average

I.P. = 221.75

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 479/2010


Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010

EU Quotations of Butter and SMP(EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)

373

252

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

Jan

03

Apr

03

Jul

03

Oct

03

Jan

04

Apr

04

Jul

04

Oct

04

Jan

05

Apr

05

Jul

05

Oct

05

Jan

06

Apr

06

Jul

06

Oct

06

Jan

07

Apr

07

Jul

07

Oct

07

Jan

08

Apr

08

Jul

08

Oct

08

Jan

09

Apr

09

Jul

09

Oct

09

Jan

10

Apr

10

Jul

10

Oct

10

Jan

11

in E

UR/1

00 k

g

.

BUTTER SMP


0 T.

Butter Stocks02.03.2011

Private Storage : 1 053 Tons

Intervention Stocks : 1 544 Tonsof which Most Deprived : 1 544 TonsAvailable : 0 Ton

0 T.

254 T.

0 T.

0 T.

0 T.

0 T.

182 T.

0 T.

1 363 T.

0 T.

0 T.

0 T.

94 T.

8 094 T.

0 T.

0 T.

515 T.

0 T.0 T.

0 T.

0 T.

532 T.

444 T.

0 T.


Intervention Stocks : 162 407 Tonsof which Most Deprived : 93 899 Tonsavailable for sale : 50 402 Tons

SMP Stocks02.03.2011

15 945 T.

51 268 T.

32 170 T.

23 411 T.

10 183 T.

13 899 T

2 503 T.

2 734 T. 1 052 T.

1 521 T.

4 516 T.

2 597 T.

607 T. 0 T.


Monthly EU15/25 WMP Prices

150170190210230250270290310330350370390410

Jan Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2008 2009 2 010 2 011



Monthly EU CHEDDAR Prices

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2008 2009 2010 2011

Monthly EU15/25 EDAM Prices

200220240260280300320340360380400420

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2 010 2008 2009 2 011



Monthly EU15/25 WheyPowder Prices

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2 010 2008 2009 2 011



EU Income of manufacturing of Cheese/Wheypowder, SMP/Butter and WMP/Butter in EUR

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Ma

r 0

7

Ma

y 0

7

Jul 0

7

Se

p 0

7

No

v 0

7

Jan

08

Ma

r 0

8

Ma

y 0

8

Jul 0

8

Se

p 0

8

No

v 0

8

Jan

09

Ma

r 0

9

Ma

y 0

9

Jul 0

9

Se

p 0

9

No

v 0

9

Jan

10

Ma

r 1

0

Ma

y 1

0

Jul 1

0

Se

p 1

0

No

v 1

0

Jan

11

Ma

r 1

1

EU

R f

or

10

00

kg

of

Milk

Cheese/Butter/Whey

SMP/Butter

WMP/Butter


WORLD Income of manufacturing of Cheese/Wheypowder, SMP/Butter and WMP/Butter (in USD).

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

Ma

r 0

7

Ma

y 0

7

Jul 0

7

Se

p 0

7

No

v 0

7

Jan

08

Ma

r 0

8

Ma

y 0

8

Jul 0

8

Se

p 0

8

No

v 0

8

Jan

09

Ma

r 0

9

Ma

y 0

9

Jul 0

9

Se

p 0

9

No

v 0

9

Jan

10

Ma

r 1

0

Ma

y 1

0

Jul 1

0

Se

p 1

0

No

v 1

0

Jan

11

Ma

r 1

1

US

D f

or

10

00

kg

of

Milk

Cheese/Butter/Whey

SMP/Butter

WMP/Butter


USD/EUR

1.3809

Source: European Central Bank


EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter

4 800

5 130

4 430

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000N

ov

03

Ma

r 0

4

Jul 0

4

No

v 0

4

Ma

r 0

5

Jul 0

5

No

v 0

5

Ma

r 0

6

Jul 0

6

No

v 0

6

Ma

r 0

7

Jul 0

7

No

v 0

7

Ma

r 0

8

Jul 0

8

No

v 0

8

Ma

r 0

9

Jul 0

9

No

v 0

9

Ma

r 1

0

Jul 1

0

No

v 1

0

Pri

ce

s i

n U

SD

/to

nn

e

Avg Oceania Butter quotation

Avg EU Butter internal Price

Avg US Butter quotation

Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news


EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP

3 900

3 390

3 970

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

Nov

03

Mar

04

Jul 0

4

Nov

04

Mar

05

Jul 0

5

Nov

05

Mar

06

Jul 0

6

Nov

06

Mar

07

Jul 0

7

Nov

07

Mar

08

Jul 0

8

Nov

08

Mar

09

Jul 0

9

Nov

09

Mar

10

Jul 1

0

Nov

10

Pri

ces

in U

SD

/to

nn

e

Avg Oceania SMP quotation

Avg EU SMP internal Price

Avg US SMP quotation



EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP

4 2504 290

4 180

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000N

ov 0

3

Mar

04

Jul 0

4

Nov

04

Mar

05

Jul 0

5

Nov

05

Mar

06

Jul 0

6

Nov

06

Mar

07

Jul 0

7

Nov

07

Mar

08

Jul 0

8

Nov

08

Mar

09

Jul 0

9

Nov

09

Mar

10

Jul 1

0

Nov

10

Pri

ces

in U

SD

/to

nn

e

Avg Oceania WMP quotation

Avg EU WMP internal Price

Avg US WMP quotation



EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar

4 400

4 2404 380

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Nov

03

Mar

04

Jul 0

4

Nov

04

Mar

05

Jul 0

5

Nov

05

Mar

06

Jul 0

6

Nov

06

Mar

07

Jul 0

7

Nov

07

Mar

08

Jul 0

8

Nov

08

Mar

09

Jul 0

9

Nov

09

Mar

10

Jul 1

0

Nov

10

Pri

ces

in U

SD

/to

nn

e

Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation

Avg EU Cheddar internal Price

Avg US Cheddar quotation



Source : DG-AGRI - FAO - USDA

0 to 30 30 to 60 60 to 90 90 to 120 120 to 150

Top 15 World Countries Producing Cow's Milk (2009)in million Tonnes

E.U. : 148,1

Canada : 8,2

U.S.A. : 85,9

Mexico : 10,7

Brazil : 28,5

Argentina : 10,5

Australia : 9,4

Russia : 32,3

China : 36,1

India : 45,1

Pakistan : 12,0Turkey : 11,6

Ukraine : 11,4

New Zealand : 17,5

Japan : 7,9

2010/09 : + 1.2% (up to déc 10)2010/09 : + 1.8%

(up to déc 10)

2010/09 : - 0.3% (up to déc 10)

2010/09 : + 1.1% (up to déc 10)


U.S. milk production

6 200

6 400

6 600

6 800

7 000

7 200

7 400

7 600

7 800

8 000Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Cumul 2011 compared to 2010 : + 2.3%

in tonnes

.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


http://www.dairyaustralia.com.au/Our-Dairy-Industry/Industry-Statistics/Latest-Statistics.aspx

Cumul 2010/11 compared to 2009/10 : + 0.1%

Australian milk production

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

1 100

1 200Ju

l

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun


in tonnes

.

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11



NZ milk production

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000Ju

l

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun


in tonnes

.

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11


Prices

in US$/t May 11 Jun-Aug 11 Sep-Nov 11Weighted

average price % changeAMF 6 427 6 450 6 378 6 424 1.6%BMP no offer no offer no offerSMP 4 042 4 078 3 782 3 977 2.0%WMP 4 958 4 935 4 291 4 619 6.9%

01/03/2011 1 € = 1.3825 $ (ECB rate)

in €/t May 11 Jun-Aug 11 Sep-Nov 11Weighted

average priceAMF 4 649 4 665 4 613 4 647BMP #VALUE! #VALUE!SMP 2 924 2 950 2 736 2 877WMP 3 586 3 570 3 104 3 341

Quantitiesin t May 11 Jun-Aug 11 Sep-Nov 11 Total Diff volumeAMF 1 025 900 600 2 525 -225BMP 0 0SMP 1 000 1 000 850 2 850 -1 050WMP 1 750 1 750 3 500 7 000 -4 000

Source: http://www.globaldairytrade.info/

Results of the Fonterra Auction of 1.03.2011


Anhydrous Milk Fat

Source: graph based on information available on http://www.globaldairytrade.info/

AMF - offered quantities and weighted average price

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

3 N

ov 0

9

1 D

ec 0

9

5 Ja

n 10

2 Fe

b 10

2 M

ar 1

0

6 Ap

r 10

4 M

ay 1

0

1 Ju

n 10

6 Ju

l 10

3 Au

g 10

1 Se

p 10

15 S

ep 1

0

5 O

ct 1

0

19 O

ct 1

0

2 N

ov 1

0

16 N

ov 1

0

1 D

ec 1

0

15 D

ec 1

0

4 Ja

n 11

18 J

an 1

1

1 Fe

b 01

15 F

eb 0

1

1 M

ar 1

1

in t

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

in U

S$

Contract 1 (month + 2) Contract 2 (3 months after month + 2) Contract 3 (3 months after month + 5) Weighted average price


Skimmed Milk Powder


SMP - offered quantities and weighted average price

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

02-Mar-10

06-Apr-10

04-May-

10

01-Jun-10

06-Jul-10

03-Aug-10

01-Sep-10

15-Sep-10

05-Oct-10

19-Oct-10

02-Nov-10

16-Nov-10

01-Dec-10

15-Dec-10

04-Jan-11

18-Jan-11

01-Feb-01

15-Feb-01

01-Mar-11

in t

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

in U

S$



Whole Milk Powder


WMP - offered quantities and weighted average price

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

02-J

ul-0

8

05-A

ug-0

8

02-S

ep-0

8

01-O

ct-0

8

04-N

ov-0

8

02-D

ec-0

8

06-J

an-0

9

03-F

eb-0

9

03-M

ar-0

9

01-A

pr-0

9

12-M

ay-0

9

02-J

un-0

9

01-J

ul-0

9

04-A

ug-0

9

01-S

ep-0

9

06-O

ct-0

9

07-O

ct-0

9

01-D

ec-0

9

05-J

an-1

0

02-F

eb-1

0

02-M

ar-1

0

06-A

pr-1

0

04-M

ay-1

0

01-J

un-1

0

06-J

ul-1

0

03-A

ug-1

0

01-S

ep-1

0

15-S

ep-1

0

05-O

ct-1

0

19-O

ct-1

0

02-N

ov-1

0

16-N

ov-1

0

01-D

ec-1

0

15-D

ec-1

0

04-J

an-1

1

18-J

an-1

1

01-F

eb-0

1

15-F

eb-0

1

01-M

ar-1

1

in t

0

250

500

750

1 000

1 250

1 500

1 750

2 000

2 250

2 500

2 750

3 000

3 250

3 500

3 750

4 000

4 250

4 500

4 750

in U

S$


Milk Market Situation Brussels, 03 March 2011

Documents

Transcript of Milk Market Situation Brussels, 03 March 2011