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Their core argument is that national power is divided into three interlinked realms:

(1) natural resources, (2) national performance, and (3) military capabilities. The

first realm encompasses the level of resources either available to, or produced by, a

country. The second realm encompasses national performance. It is derived from

the external pressures facing a country and the efficiency of its governing

institutions (nominally labeled the state) and its society at large. The third realmencompasses military capability, which is understood in terms of operational

proficiency or effectiveness. Military capability is produced as a result of both the

strategic resources available to a military organization and its ability to convert

those resources into effective coercive power. These three realms taken together

describe national power.

The first groups objective was to find variables that help identify the great powers

in the international system in 2020. The most important variables include

population, human capital, economic power, technological prowess, and military

capabilities. The group argued that the single most important form of power in 2020will continue to be military power. The best single indicator of military power is the

defense budget. Other indicators might include expenditures on various areas of the

military, such as ground, air, and naval forces. However, these quantitative

indicators do not always correlate well with military effectiveness. History

demonstrates that smaller armies have defeated larger opponents because of better

training, doctrine, and strategy. Economic power is the foundation of military

power. The most important single indicator is GDP. Like defense budgets, however,

GDP provides only a limited picture of power. It says little about the composition of

the economy, such as whether it is spearheaded by leading sectors or dominated by

old and declining ones. Other important variables include human capital and

technology. The best readily available measure of human capital is the average yearof educational attainment. For technology, the best indicator is per-capita

expenditure on research and development. Ultimately, however, none of these

indicators provides a complete picture of power in 2020. Articulating an ideal

indicator is difficult, perhaps impossible. But it is likely to have something to do with

quality: the ability of states to convert these components into outputs and make use

of them. For example, is there a sense of unity and purpose in the state to mobilize

and pursue national ambitions?

http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/conf_proceedings/2005/RAND_CF

215.pdf

The availability of natural resources, in the form of food, minerals, energy, etc, plays

an extremely important role in the relative power structure of nations. Large

amounts of natural resources are essential for a modern nation to wage war, to

operate an industrial base, and to reward other international actors through trade

and aid. Moreover, as in the case of the geopolitical ownership of strategic places,

the physical possession of natural resources is not necessarily a source of power

http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/conf_proceedings/2005/RAND_CF215.pdfhttp://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/conf_proceedings/2005/RAND_CF215.pdfhttp://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/conf_proceedings/2005/RAND_CF215.pdfhttp://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/conf_proceedings/2005/RAND_CF215.pdfhttp://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/conf_proceedings/2005/RAND_CF215.pdf

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unless a nation can also develop those resources and maintain political control over

their disposition.23 The dependence of nations on crucial resources can severely

restrict their national power and influence. Conversely, the dependence of others on

a resource held by a particular country or countries can add to the latters influence

and power. The dependence of the world on oil supplies from the Gulf has exalted

the geostrategic importance of this region and hence provided these states with aninstrument of power, which they amply demonstrated in the oil crisis of the 1970s

to the detriment of the West. The almost complete dependence of Japan on raw

materials is a critical issue in the survival calculations of the Japanese. The

importance of natural resources varies with time and technology. A resource,

nevertheless, is a potential element of power and if the mother country is not in a

position to utilize or defend this resource, it may invite envy or even aggression. So,

it is important also to have the technology and the wherewithal to exploit the gifts of

nature. The source of strength the U.S. enjoys from its abundant natural resources

and immense technological and industrial capability is the cornerstone of U.S.

position as the sole super power of the world.

The importance of technology in raising and maintaining a potent military cannot be

overemphasized. Countries that fail to keep pace with modern technology can only

do so at their own peril, and they become totally dependent on other countries for

provision of latest military hardware and software. Technological innovations have

often been the difference between the victor and the loser. Beyond doubt, the

current U.S. mastery of the world has only been possible because of its

overwhelming superiority in (military) technology. Maintaining a military also

requires, as mentioned earlier, a strong economy as well as access to natural

resources. However, in addition to material means, the military strength depends a

great deal on the quality of the fighting force and its leaders. Of course, the concept

of military leadership has somewhat changed in modern war. The individualcharisma and bravado of the military commanders is becoming less and less

relevant, but their training, ability to comprehend the situation, timely decision-

making and judicious use of available resources remain paramount.

http://www.issi.org.pk/publication-files/1361514464_18039185.pdf