Mike Bushell - Threats to Food Security and Food Chain Livelihoods from Weeds, Pests and Diseases
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Transcript of Mike Bushell - Threats to Food Security and Food Chain Livelihoods from Weeds, Pests and Diseases
Threats to Food Security and Food Chain Livelihoods from Weeds, Pests
and Diseases
Dr Mike Bushell
Syngenta Global R&D
0
1
2
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4
1970 2000 2010 2030 2050
Demand growth from population growth and diet changes
• 9bn people by 2050
– Rapid increase in emerging countries
• 2050 grain demand: +50%
– food grain +25%
– meat consumption +70%
* Includes cereals, rice, corn and soybean Source: FAO, Syngenta analysis
Global population bn
World demand for major crops* bn tonnes
2
4
6
8
10
0 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2030 2040 2050
Emerging
Developed
+50%
Feed
Food
Classification: PUBLIC
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-
100
200
300
400
Food Price risks Stocks-to-use ratio* %
01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07
Crop price index** Jan 2002 = 100
07/08 08/09 09/10
10/11 11/12E
• Crop price volatility
• Government intervention
• Ongoing demand growth: emerging markets
• Challenging supply/demand balance
• Energy costs remain high and volatile
* Ratio for combined corn, soybean, wheat and rice Source: WASDE October 2011 for STU, Bloomberg for prices, Syngenta analysis
Classification: PUBLIC
How have we met the increased food demand since 1950’s?
Mechanisation including irrigation
Modern fertilizers
Crop protection chemicals
Better seed varieties
Classification: PUBLIC
The role of crop protection
of the world’s
food would not exist
without crop protection
products
•Delivering genetic
potential
•Protecting Yield
•Increasing Yield
Quality
40%
Classification: PUBLIC
1
CP contribution to crop yields and remaining potential
23
50.2
31.540
1825.1
39.6
21.6
37.333.7
53.2 34.6
37.428.2 31.2 26.3 28.8
40.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Rice Wheat Maize Soybean Cotton Potato
% t
heo
reti
cal
maxim
um
Yield with no CP Extra yield from CP Remaining potential
Source: Crop Losses to Pests; E-C Oerke, Journal of Agricultural Science (2006), 144, 31-43
Classification: PUBLIC
Disease, Insect, Weed Control Research Targets
Classification: PUBLIC
Non-selective
Corn selective
Cereals selective
Soya Bean selective
Rice selective Cereals
Fruit &Veg
Field crops
Horticulture
Sucking pests
Nematodes
Soil pests
Lepidoptera
Crop diseases can be devastating Effects of Potato Late Blight (Phytophthora infestans) exemplifies
why agricultural fungal control is so important to global agriculture!
Classification: PUBLIC
Drivers for innovation : New disease issues
• New disease pandemics can occur
• Example : Soybean rust (Phakopsora pachyrhizi) – a billion $ opportunity in N & S America
that didn’t exist 10 years ago.
– a virulent strain from the Far East first identified in 1902
– rapid defoliation and dramatic yield losses (up to 80%).
• Rapid spread from Zimbabwe in 1998 to S. Africa, S. America and USA by 2004.
Fungicide treated vs. untreated
soya in Brazil
Classification: PUBLIC
Drivers for innovation: Resistance
• Resistance drives need for product refreshment – Can develop faster than R&D can
deliver new technologies
• Resistance management is a major issue
• Different types of resistance development and impact – so monitoring is important – Azoles – “creeping” tolerance – Strobilurins – sudden and total
failure
• Example : Septoria tritici resistance to Strobilurin fungicides in Europe….
Septoria tritici
Classification: PUBLIC
GM Plants with insect resistance Corn borer resistant (Bt) maize Corn root worm resistant maize
Classification: PUBLIC
Key Pests of US Corn
Pest Common Name Vip3A
(Viptera)
Cry1Ab
(CB)
Helicoverpa zea Corn Earworm . .
Spodoptera frugiperda Fall Armyworm . .
Agrotis ipsilon Black cutworm .
Striacosta albicosta Western bean cutworm .
Papaipema nebris Common stalk borer . .
Ostrinia nubilalis European corn borer .
Diatraea grandiosella Southwestern corn borer . .
Stacks offer outstanding control of all these pests
Classification: PUBLIC
Fungal mycotoxins: a growing problem
• Secondary metabolites, e.g. aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxins, deoxynivalenol (DON), patulin and zearalenone produced by Aspergillus, Fusarium & Penicillium spp
• Aflatoxins are greatest risk to human and animal health – Up to 25% of the world’s food crops significantly contaminated* – Acute exposure can be fatal; chronic exposure causes serious
health problems
• Dietary exposure managed in developed countries – Food Chain and Food Safety Agency monitoring and action – Significant economic losses
• Kenya 2011** – 30-60% maize samples tested had aflatoxin levels above the
action level – Up to 163x safe concentration
* Source: WHO 1999
** Source: IFPRI Classification: PUBLIC
Insect control reduces mycotoxin levels in corn
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5
10
15
20
25
30
0
5'000
10'000
15'000
20'000
25'000
% of ears attacked by corn borer
3 880
240
19 800
KARATE
G1
KARATE
G1 and G2
Check
FU
MO
(p
pb
)
• Insecticide control of corn borer infestation reduces fumonisin levels
• Bt corn (GM) also reduces crop losses through mycotoxin contamination*
*Source: G Brookes, PG Economics June 2009
Classification: PUBLIC
Weeds are more than a nuisance!
• Weeds are the number 1 cause of yield loss
• With a good fertiliser regime you can grow 12t/ha maize – or 6t maize and a lot of
weeds
• Compete with the crop for light, water and nutrients
• Costly to control manually • Herbicide programmes need
to be safe to the crop while controlling the key weeds
• Weedy rice is a particular problem that can’t be solved by chemicals
Classification: PUBLIC
Hainan China November 2008
Classification: PUBLIC
10 t/ha yield integrated solution: Chennai March 2011
Classification: PUBLIC
Safety all around
Protection of employees
Operator safety
Environment
Food People
Classification: PUBLIC
Mycotoxin contamination
Sustainable Intensification of Agriculture
……a key concept from UK Foresight report
Ag Systems that deliver better outcomes
• more crop yield from the same area of land
• reduced negative environmental impacts
• using all inputs more efficiently – land, water,
nutrients
Both agricultural
productivity AND better environmental outcomes
are pre-eminent under sustainable intensification
Growing More from Less
Classification: PUBLIC
Food Security Issues
Sustainable Consumption Issues
Microbial contamination
Choking Hazard
Chemical Hazards
Food Safety
Syngenta technology contributes to solutions
Development of integrated solutions Pest (IPM)
Crop (ICM)
Field / Farm
Landscape
Threshold Concepts
Beneficials Management
Traps, Pheromones
Resistance Management
Programs
Altenative Solutions
Residue Minimization
Seed Care
Product Stewardship
Forecast Models
Alert Systems
Field Margins
Pollinator Habitat
Application Technology
Farm Stewardship
C / N Footprint
Refuge Management
Biodiversity Concepts
Water Protection
Land Use Concepts
Increasing level of integration and risk mitigation
Classification: PUBLIC
ICM in Vegetables • Andalucia (Almeria) Spain
– 2008- 100% of peppers, cucumbers and egg plant treated with ICM
– Combination of cultural, chemical and biological control methods
Classification: PUBLIC
Biological control of insects
Predatory mites Amblyseius cucumeris – thrips
A swirskii – whitefly
A.andersoni – spider and russet mites
Phytoseuilus persimilis - spidermites
Hypoaspis miles - sciarids
Parasitoids Encarsia and eretmocerus – whitefly
Aphidius – aphids
Diglyphus - leafminer
Bugs Orius sp – thrips
Macrolophus - whitefly
Classification: PUBLIC
Summary
• Pests, Weeds and Diseases are a major cause of yield and crop quality loss, and farm income reduction
• Systems approaches are vital
• Insect pest damage leaves the plant open to secondary attack from damaging fungal, viral and bacterial diseases
• Without effective pest control 40-50% of the food we have today would not exist
– Poor control of pests and diseases in the field will result in additional losses in storage
– Animal Health is also affected by Pests and Diseases
• Chemical crop protection agents are essential to meet our food security challenge
• Advances in plant science offer an opportunity for better genetics
Classification: PUBLIC