Migration Patterns and Mover Characteristics from the 2005 ACS Gulf Coast Area Special Products Kin...

Migration Patterns and Mover Characteristics from the 2005 ACS Gulf Coast Area Special Products

Kin Koerber

Housing and Household Economic

Statistics Division

U.S. Census Bureau

Presented at the Southern Demographic Association Conference

Durham, North Carolina

November 2-4, 2006

This report is released to inform interested parties of ongoing research and to encourage discussion. The views expressed on statistical, methodological, technical, or operational issues are those of the author and not necessarily

those of the U.S. Census Bureau.

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2005 ACS Gulf Coast Area Special Products

2005 ACS sample split between the first 8 months of the year (before the hurricanes) and the last 4 months (after the hurricanes).

ACS asks residence 1 year ago.

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2005 ACS Gulf Coast Area Special Products

Migration data

Same house (nonmovers)

Moved within same county

Moved from different county, same state

Moved from different state

Moved from abroad

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Overview

Compare 2004 ACS data with the 8-month (before) and 4-month (after) data at the state level.

-Are migration patterns similar for the 2004 ACS and 8-month estimates?

-If so, are the migration patterns for the 8-month and 4-month different?

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Overview

Compare the 8-month and 4-month data below the state level.

-What are the differences in migration patterns that are significant for certain areas?

-Where are movers going (i.e. flows)?

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Overview

Examine Characteristics for those staying and leaving New Orleans.

-What characteristics had significant changes?

- Are there differences across racial groups?

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Comparing 2004 ACS data with the 8-month and 4-month data

(State Level)

Limitations

–2004 collected in only 1,240 counties–Different MSA definitions–Special Products do not use controls

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(State Level)Lived in area 1 year ago and currently in U.S.

-Nonmovers

-Movers within same area

-Movers to different area in U.S.

Movers from different area within U.S.

Movers from abroad

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(State Level)Methodology

Calculate the percentage-point difference between 2004 ACS and 8-month estimates as well as 8-month and 4-month estimates.

Use z-score test to determine whether the difference is significant at the 90 percent confidence level.

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Significant Differences for 2004 and 8-month Comparison

(State Level)

-Nonmovers in Texas (+0.9)

-Movers within Texas (-0.9)

Comparisons of percentage-point differences between these mover statuses may not be statistically different.

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Significant Differences for 8-month and 4-month Comparison

(State Level)

Louisiana

Nonmovers (-7.7)

Movers to a different area (+6.0)

Movers within same area (+1.7)


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(State Level)

Mississippi

Nonmovers (-4.6)

Movers within same area (+2.8)

Movers to a different area (+1.9)


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(State Level)

Texas

Movers from different area in U.S. (+0.8)

Remainder of the U.S.

Movers from different area in U.S. (+0.1)


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The Fifteen Selected Areas

Alabama – FEMA designated counties, remainder

Louisiana – Baton Rouge MSA, New Orleans MSA, Lake Charles MSA, other FEMA designated counties, remainder

Mississippi – Gulfport-Biloxi area, other FEMA designated counties, remainder

Texas – Beaumont-Port Arthur MSA, Houston area, other FEMA designated counties, remainder

Remainder of the U.S.

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New Orleans MSANonmovers (-31.3)Movers from different area, same state (-

0.7)Movers to different area, same state (+7.1)Movers to different state (+22.0)Movers from abroad (-0.2)


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Gulfport-Biloxi areaNonmovers (-16.5)Movers to different state (+6.7)


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Other FEMA designated counties in LouisianaMovers from different area, same state (+2.4)

Remainder of Louisiana Movers from different area, same state (+2.1)


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Other FEMA designated counties in MississippiMovers from different state (+1.5)

Houston area Movers from different state (+1.5)


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Mover Flows

From New Orleans MSA to:

Remainder of Alabama (+1.2)

Baton Rouge MSA (+5.8)

Within New Orleans (-49.7)

Houston area (+12.8)

Remainder of Texas (+10.2)

Remainder of the U.S. (+11.3)

Comparisons of percentage-point differences between these geographies may not be statistically different.

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Mover Flows

From Other FEMA designated counties in

Texas to:

Houston area (-13.3)

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New Orleans MSA Characteristics

Population 1 year and over

8-month estimates Before Katrina

4-month estimatesStayed in New Orleans MSA- Nonmovers & Movers within New Orleans MSA

Moved outside the MSA

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Characteristic

(Population 1 year and over)

Before Katrina

(8-month)

Stayed in New Orleans MSA

(4-month)

Moved outside New Orleans MSA

(4-month)

Median Age 38.5 years 42.2 years 29.5 years

Average household size 2.42 people* 2.56 people* 3.16 people

Living in owner-occupied housing

68.2 percent 78.3 percent 23.6 percent

Unemployed or not in labor force


In poverty 16.6 percent* 12.9 percent* 32.2 percent

*The Before Katrina and Stayed in New Orleans MSA estimates are not statistically different


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Characteristic

(Population 1 year and over)

Before Katrina

(8-month)


(4-month)


(4-month)

Householder 42.1 percent* 39.8 percent* 31.9 percent

Extended family member of nonrelative

11.4 percent* 14.6 percent* 28.7 percent

Never married 31.8 percent 26.2 percent 43.9 percent

Non-Hispanic White 54.6 percent 66.8 percent 32.1 percent

Non-Hispanic African American




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Characteristic

(Non-Hispanic White Population 1 year and over)

Before Katrina

(8-month)


(4-month)


(4-month)

Median Age 42.6 years* 45.2 years* 31.8 years

Average household size 2.35 people* 2.47 people* 3.06 people



Unemployed 3.1 percent 5.7 percent 13.1 percent

In poverty 8.2 percent* 8.9 percent* 21.4 percent



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Characteristic

(Non-Hispanic White Population 1 year and over)

Before Katrina

(8-month)


(4-month)


(4-month)

Householder 44.5 percent* 42.6 percent* 31.9 percent

Extended family member of nonrelative


Never married 9.0 percent* 12.6 percent* 29.8 percent



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Characteristic

(Non-Hispanic African American Population 1 year and over)

Before Katrina

(8-month)


(4-month)


(4-month)



Employed 55.6 percent* 45.6 percent* 28.5 percent


Conclusion

The sample for the ACS Special Products for the Gulf Coast Area is large enough to show changes in migration in some areas due to the hurricanes.

Those that moved out of New Orleans tended to be African American, younger, single or separated, to be in poverty, living in renter-occupied housing, and less likely employed.

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