Migration in Europe
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Transcript of Migration in Europe
Migration in Europe
OECD NERO MeetingJuly 6, Paris
Ruud A. de MooijCPB Netherlands Bureau for
Economic Policy Analysis
Migration in Europe
• Immigration from outside EU (2/3)– labour market tightness– ageing
• Labour mobility within the EU (1/3)– income/unemployment disparities– asymmetric shocks– EU enlargement
Does Europe need more immigrants?
• UN report: constant ratio 65+ and age 15-64– --> NL in 2100: +580%
• CPB report: constant fiscal burden– --> NL in 2100: +18%
Economic effects of immigration
• Fiscal impact• Revenue• Expenditure
• Labour market effects • Wage (-distribution)• Unemployment
• Externalities
Critical factors for economic effects:
the Dutch experience
• Participation rate / follow-up• Dependency ratio • Skill level / average income• Age structure
Participation rate Dutch immigrants(NL = 100)
0
20
40
60
80
100
TurkishMaroccanSurinamAntillian NL
Follow-up migration
Dependency ratio Dutch immigrants
Net income of migrants (NL = 100)
20
40
60
80
100
TurkishMaroccanSurinamAntillian NL
Brain drain
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
60 80 00
Turkey
Nl ant
Age structure of Dutch migrants
0
0,02
0,04
0,06
0,08
0,1
0,12
0,14
0,16
0 5101520253035404550556065707580859095
MigrantsNatives
Conclusions on external migration
• Prime motivation is ageing• Economic impact depends on:
– Participation (-)– Dependency ratio (-)– Skill (-)– Age (+)
Labour mobility in the EU
• Labour mobility and regional disparities
• Responsiveness to wage and unemployment differentials
• Why is labour mobility low?– Preferences– Policy distortions
Gross migration rates
–
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
ItSp
Ger Fr NlCz
Slk Pol Lith EU US
Regional unemployment dispersion
–
0
10
20
30
40
50
60It Sp
Ger Fr
Nl
Cz
Slk
Pol
Hun Lith
coe
ffic
ien
t o
f va
ria
tio
n
Regional wage dispersion
–
0
5
10
15
20
It SpGer Fr Nl
CzSlk Pol
Hun Lith
co
eff
icie
nt
of
vari
ati
on
Migration responses in the EU
in % pop.x 1000
average region(2,2 mln)
Wage
Unemploymentrate
5.0
-0.95
11,176
-2,100
Effect of u on migration rate
In (-) Out (+) Net (-)x 1000
CzechPolandLithuania
-0-
-+-
-.02-.08-.41
ItalySpainEU-15
-0
++
-.30-.59-.95
Effect of w on migration rate
In (+) Out (-) Net (+)x 1000
CzechPolandSlovakia
+++
+++
+3.85+3.01+3.05
ItalySpainEU-15
-+
-+
00+5.01
Why is mobility low?
• Population vs labour migration• Language• Culture• Female participation• Institutions
Institutional barriers to mobility
• Housing market (Oswald)• Social insurance (pensions)• Diplomas• Informational barriers• Regional aid